Decomposing Consumer Wealth Effects: Evidence on the Role of Real Estate Assets Following the Wealth Cycle of 1990-2002

During the period of 1990-2002 US households experienced a dramatic wealth cycle, induced by a 369% appreciation in the value of real per capita liquid stock market assets followed by a 55% decline. However, consumer spending in real terms continued to rise throughout this period. Using data from 1990-2005, traditional life-cycle approaches to estimating macroeconomic wealth effects confront two puzzles: (i) econometric evidence of a stable cointegrating relationship among consumption, income, and wealth is weak at best; and (ii) life-cycle models that rely on aggregate measures of wealth cannot explain why consumption did not collapse when the value of stock market assets declined so dramatically. We address both puzzles by decomposing wealth according to the liquidity of household assets. We find that the significant appreciation in the value of real estate assets that occurred after the peak of the wealth cycle helped sustain consumer spending from 2001 to 2005.

Exergy-based method for analyzing the composition of the electricity cost generated in gas-fired combined cycle plants

The proposed method to analyze the composition of the cost of electricity is based on the energy conversion processes and the destruction of the exergy through the several thermodynamic processes that comprise a combined cycle power plant. The method uses thermoeconomics to evaluate and allocate the cost of exergy throughout the processes, considering costs related to inputs and investment in equipment. Although the concept may be applied to any combined cycle or cogeneration plant, this work develops only the mathematical modeling for three-pressure heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) configurations and total condensation of the produced steam. It is possible to study any n x 1 plant configuration (n sets of gas turbine and HRSGs associated to one steam turbine generator and condenser) with the developed model, assuming that every train operates identically and in steady state. The presented model was conceived from a complex configuration of a real power plant, over which variations may be applied in order to adapt it to a defined configuration under study [Borelli SJS. Method for the analysis of the composition of electricity costs in combined cycle thermoelectric power plants. Master in Energy Dissertation, Interdisciplinary Program of Energy, Institute of Eletro-technical and Energy, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2005 (in Portuguese)]. The variations and adaptations include, for instance, use of reheat, supplementary firing and partial load operation. It is also possible to undertake sensitivity analysis on geometrical equipment parameters. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantification of prolactin-releasing peptide (PrRP) mRNA expression in specific brain regions of the rat during the oestrous cycle and in lactation

Real-time Taqman(TM) RT-PCR was used to make quantitative comparisons of the levels of PrRP mRNA expression in micropunch brain samples from rats at different stages of the oestrous cycle and in lactation. The nucleus of the solitary tract and ventrolateral reticular nuclei of the medulla oblongata contained significantly (P < 0.05) greater levels of PrRP mRNA than any hypothalamic region. Within the hypothalamus, the highest level of PrRP expression was localised to the dorsomedial aspect of the ventromedial hypothalamus. All other hypothalamic regions exhibited significantly (P < 0.05) lower levels of expression, including the rostral and caudal dorsomedial hypothalamus. Very low levels of PrRP expression were observed in the arcuate nucleus, paraventricular nucleus, medial preoptic nucleus and ventrolateral aspect of the ventromedial hypothalamus. No significant changes in PrRP expression were noted in any sampled region between proestrus, oestrus or dioestrus. Similarly, PrRP expression in hypothalamic regions did not differ between lactating and non-lactating (dioestrous) animals. During validation of RT-PCR techniques we cloned and sequenced a novel splice variant of PrRP from the hypothalamus. This variant arises from alternative splicing of the donor site within exon 2, resulting in an insert of 64 base pairs and shift in the-codon:reading frame with the introduction of an early stop codon. In the hypothalamus and brainstem, mRNA expression of the variant was restricted to regions that expressed PrRP. These results suggest that PrRP expression in the hypothalamus may be more Widespread than previously reported. However, the relatively low level of PrRP in the hypothalamus and the lack of significant changes in expression during the oestrous cycle and lactation provides further evidence that PrRP is unlikely to be involved in the regulation of prolactin, secretion. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Gene expression profile analysis of primary glioblastomas and non-neoplastic brain tissue: identification of potential target genes by oligonucleotide microarray and real-time quantitative PCR

The prognosis of glioblastomas is still extremely poor and the discovery of novel molecular therapeutic targets can be important to optimize treatment strategies. Gene expression analyses comparing normal and neoplastic tissues have been used to identify genes associated with tumorigenesis and potential therapeutic targets. We have used this approach to identify differentially expressed genes between primary glioblastomas and non-neoplastic brain tissues. We selected 20 overexpressed genes related to cell cycle, cellular movement and growth, proliferation and cell-to-cell signaling and analyzed their expression levels by real time quantitative PCR in cDNA obtained from microdissected fresh tumor tissue from 20 patients with primary glioblastomas and from 10 samples of non-neoplastic white matter tissue. The gene expression levels were significantly higher in glioblastomas than in non-neoplastic white matter in 18 out of 20 genes analyzed: P < 0.00001 for CDKN2C, CKS2, EEF1A1, EMP3, PDPN, BNIP2, CA12, CD34, CDC42EP4, PPIE, SNAI2, GDF15 and MMP23b; and NFIA (P: 0.0001), GPS1 (P: 0.0003), LAMA1 (P: 0.002), STIM1 (P: 0.006), and TASP1 (P: 0.01). Five of these genes are located in contiguous loci at 1p31-36 and 2 at 17q24-25 and 8 of them encode surface membrane proteins. PDPN and CD34 protein expression were evaluated by immunohistochemistry and they showed concordance with the PCR results. The present results indicate the presence of 18 overexpressed genes in human primary glioblastomas that may play a significant role in the pathogenesis of these tumors and that deserve further functional investigation as attractive candidates for new therapeutic targets.

Oestrogen and Progesterone Receptor Gene Expression in Canine Oocytes and Cumulus Cells Throughout the Oestrous Cycle

The aim of this research was to analyze oestrogen receptor-alpha (ER alpha), ER beta and progesterone receptor (PR) gene expression in the canine oocyte and cumulus cells throughout the oestrous cycle. Ovaries from 38 bitches were recovered after ovariohysterectomy and sliced. The phase of the oestrous cycle was determined by vaginal cytology, vaginoscopy and serum hormonal measurements. Oocytes were mechanically denuded by repeated pipetting. For each phase of the cycle, a sample was composed by a pool of 50 oocytes (sample number: prooestrus = 3, oestrus = 8, dioestrus = 5 and anoestrus = 5) or a pool of cumulus cells (prooestrus = 4, oestrus = 7, dioestrus = 4 and anoestrus = 6). Oocyte and cumulus cells` total RNA was isolated and reverse transcription was conducted to perform real-time PCR. Oestrogen receptor-alpha was expressed throughout the cycle in the oocyte (33.33%, 25.0%, 20.0% and 60.0% for prooestrus, oestrus, dioestrus and anoestrus, respectively) and cumulus cells (50.0%, 47.14%, 25.0% and 66.67% for prooestrus, oestrus, dioestrus and anoestrus, respectively). In the oocyte, the ER beta was also expressed in all phases of the cycle (33.33%, 50.0%, 20.0% and 60.0% for prooestrus, oestrus, dioestrus and anoestrus, respectively), whereas in cumulus cells, ER beta was only expressed during prooestrus (50%) and oestrus (14.29%). Interestingly, while the oocyte PR was not detected in any phase of the cycle, this receptor was expressed during prooestrus (50%), oestrus (42.86%) and anoestrus (16.67%) in cumulus cells. In conclusion, canine oocytes express ER alpha and ER beta throughout the oestrous cycle, however, there is a lack of PR expression in all these phases. Moreover, in cumulus cells, only ER alpha was expressed throughout the oestrous cycle.

Cycle time properties of the PROFIBUS timed-token protocol

A recent trend in distributed computer-controlled systems (DCCS) is to interconnect the distributed computing elements by means of multi-point broadcast networks. Since the network medium is shared between a number of network nodes, access contention exists and must be solved by a medium access control (MAC) protocol. Usually, DCCS impose real-time constraints. In essence, by real-time constraints we mean that traffic must be sent and received within a bounded interval, otherwise a timing fault is said to occur. This motivates the use of communication networks with a MAC protocol that guarantees bounded access and response times to message requests. PROFIBUS is a communication network in which the MAC protocol is based on a simplified version of the timed-token protocol. In this paper we address the cycle time properties of the PROFIBUS MAC protocol, since the knowledge of these properties is of paramount importance for guaranteeing the real-time behaviour of a distributed computer-controlled system which is supported by this type of network.

Risk-based decision support system for life cycle management of industrials plants

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

QUANTITATIVE REAL-TIME PCR (Q-PCR) FOR SPUTUM SMEAR DIAGNOSIS OF PULMONARY TUBERCULOSIS AMONG PEOPLE WITH HIV/AIDS

Objective: To assess quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (q-PCR) for the sputum smear diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in patients living with HIV/AIDS with a clinical suspicion of PTB.Method: This is a prospective study to assess the accuracy of a diagnostic test, conducted on 140 sputum specimens from 140 patients living with HIV/AIDS with a clinical suspicion of PTB, attended at two referral hospitals for people living with HIV/AIDS in the city of Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil. A Löwenstein-Jensen medium culture and 7H9 broth were used as gold standard.Results: Of the 140 sputum samples, 47 (33.6%) were positive with the gold standard. q-PCR was positive in 42 (30%) of the 140 patients. Only one (0.71%) did not correspond to the culture. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of the q-PCR were 87.2%, 98.9% and 95% respectively. In 39 (93%) of the 42 q-PCR positive cases, the CT (threshold cycle) was equal to or less than 37.Conclusion: q-PCR performed on sputum smears from patients living with HIV/AIDS demonstrated satisfactory sensitivity, specificity and accuracy, and may therefore be recommended as a method for diagnosing PTB.

How do wages react to the business cycle? A microeconometric approach

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Managing marginal capital requirements in solvency II: Analysis of a real insurance portfolio

This thesis provides a complete analysis of the Standard Capital Requirements given by Solvency II for a real insurance portfolio. We analyze the investment portfolio of BPI Vida e Pensões, an insurance company affiliated with a Portuguese bank BPI, both at security, sub-portfolio and asset class levels. By using the Standard Formula from EIOPA, Total SCR amounts to 239M€. This value is mostly explained by Market and Default Risk whereas the former is driven by Spread and Concentration Risks. Following the methodology of Leblanc (2011), we examine the Marginal Contribution of an asset to the SCR which allows for the evaluation of the risks of each security given its characteristics and interactions in the portfolio. The top contributors to the SCR are Corporate Bonds and Term Deposits. By exploring further the composition of the portfolio, our results show that slight changes in allocation of Term and Cash Deposits have severe impacts on the total Concentration and Default Risks, respectively. Also, diversification effects are very relevant by representing savings of 122M€. Finally, Solvency II represents an opportunity for the portfolio optimization. By constructing efficient frontiers, we find that as the target expected return increases, a shift from Term Deposits/ Commercial Papers to Eurozone/Peripheral and finally Equities occurs.

Improving buildings energy performance: comparison between simple payback period and life cycle costs analysis

The building sector is one of the Europeâ s main energy consumer, making buildings an important target for a wiser energy use, improving indoor comfort conditions and reducing the energy consumption. To achieve the European Union targets for energy consumption and carbon reductions it is crucial to act in new, but also in existing buildings, which constitute the majority of the building stock. In existing buildings, the significant improvement of their efficiency requires important investments. Therefore, costs are a major concern in the decision making process and the analysis of the cost effectiveness of the interventions is an important path in the guidance for the selection of the different renovation scenarios. The Portuguese thermal legislation considers the simple payback method for the calculations of the time for the return of the investment. However, this method does not take into consideration inflation, cash flows and cost of capital, as well as the future costs of energy and the building elements lifetime as it happens in a life cycle cost analysis. In order to understand the impact of the economic analysis method used in the choice of the renovation measures, a case study has been analysed using simple payback calculations and life cycle costs analysis. Overall results show that less far-reaching renovation measures are indicated when using the simple payback calculations which may be leading to solutions less cost-effective in a long run perspective.

The real economic effects of cross-delistingfrom the united states: evidence on post-operating performance, financial constraints and stock crash risk

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências Empresariais.

Ciclos económicos en economías abiertas y menos desarrolladas: el papel de los "shocks" en los términos de intercambio.The business cycle in open and less developed economies: the rol of terms-of-trade shocks.

Nuestra preocupación reside en estudiar empíricamente el mecanismo de transmisión internacional de ciclos económicos a economías pequeñas y menos desarrolladas (LDC), evaluando el impacto de los shocks en los términos de intercambio en países dónde existen imperfecciones en el mercado crediticio que imponen severas restricciones en el financiamiento de la inversión doméstica y al crecimiento económico. Primero, analizamos si la cuenta corriente responde de manera asimétrica a movimientos de largo plazo en los términos de intercambio. La hipótesis es que “en los buenos tiempos” cuando se produce una mejora permanente en términos de intercambio (y con ello el nivel de ingreso) los individuos no elevan su consumo en un monto acorde con la mejora de su ingreso (permanente) sino que ahorran una fracción del aumento en su dotación para hacer frente a una reversión en la mejora en los términos de intercambios (aunque ésta sea transitoria) en el futuro. En consecuencia, la cuenta corriente (diferencia entre ingreso y absorción) responde de manera positiva a un shock permanente en los términos de intercambio, ya que el individuo ahorra de manera cautelosa –debido a que sabe que no le prestarán para suavizar consumo - aún suponiendo que en el futuro tendrá una reversión transitoria de su ingreso. Segundo, estudiamos la relación dinámica entre los términos de intercambio y la tasa de interés en la economía pequeña abierta y con imperfecciones en el mercado crediticio (información asimétrica). La hipótesis es que la economía doméstica tiene que soportar una prima de riesgo que eleva el costo de la inversión y retarda el crecimiento (Gertler y Rogoff; 1990). Esta prima de riesgo depende, además, en forma negativa del nivel del colateral que tenga la economía. El colateral es la dotación de recursos naturales, por ejemplo, que la economía posee a los fines garantizar el cumplimiento de las obligaciones contraídas (en el modelo presentado las actividades dónde se invierten son independientes del colateral). La hipótesis establecida indica que los cambios en los términos de intercambio generan un aumento del colateral de la economía y una reducción del riesgo país: aumentos en los términos de intercambio reducen la prima de riesgo de la economía que opera en mercados de capitales con asimetrías de información, y como consecuencia aumentarían los ingresos de capitales. De esta forma, se estaría encontrando una explicación a la denominada “Paradoja de Lucas”. Finalmente, el proyecto estudia la conexión entre dos variables “clave” en la economía de los países emergentes: la relación entre los términos de intercambio y el tipo de cambio real. Argumentamos que los efectos de las mejoras de los términos de intercambio sobre los flujos de capitales externos tienden a ser sobreestimadas si no se consideran los efectos “secundarios” de éstas sobre el tipo de cambio real de la economía pequeña menos desarrollada. En este proyecto se controlan estadísticamente esta relación. La estrategia empírica elegida resulta en aplicar a un panel (constituido por dieciocho países de Latinoamérica) el método generalizado de momentos (GMM) a dos modelos de regresión estadística a los fines de abordar de manera eficiente el problema de la endogeneidad de la variable dependiente que actúa como regresor rezagado. La estrategia de estimación elegida enfatiza el análisis de la relación dinámica de las variables económicas incluidas en el análisis. The paper analyzes the general problem related to the transmission of economic cycles to Small Open Economies. The analysis focuses on terms-of-trade shocks, which are considered one of the major sources of income volatility in developing economies. Specifically, we tackle the problem related to the impact of terms-of-trade shocks in Less Developed SOEs. ‘Less Developed SOEs’ are understood as those countries who have borrowing constraints. First, we put to a test the hypothesis of asymmetric response of current account to terms-of-trade shocks (the impact of the shock on current account differs depending whether it is positive or negative), which originates from considering binding restrictions in international capital markets (Agénor and Aizenman; 2004). Second, we investigate about the main determinants of External Capital Flows (ECF) directed to Developing Countries. We put to a test the Gertler and Rogoff (1990) hypothesis that a “risky rate” arises in that markets because the economy has not sufficient amount of wealth to “collateralize” the capital she needs to borrow to take advantage of the investment opportunities she has and additionally because the lender does not have the chance of observing what the borrowed does with the funds (that is information asymmetry arises because the lender can check the realized output of investment but he can not observe if he really invest in the project or secretly lend abroad). Finally, Following Prasad, E. S., Rajan and R. Subramanian, A (2007) we measure the relationship between external capital flows and domestic currency overvaluation. We run a panel GMM estimation for a set of 18 Latin American Countries during the period 1973-2008.

Productivity, Preferences and UIP deviations in an Open Economy Business Cycle Model

We show that a flex-price two-sector open economy DSGE model can explain the poor degree of international risk sharing and exchange rate disconnect. We use a suite of model evaluation measures and examine the role of (i) traded and non-traded sectors; (ii) financial market incompleteness; (iii) preference shocks; (iv) deviations from UIP condition for the exchange rates; and (v) creditor status in net foreign assets. We find that there is a good case for both traded and non-traded productivity shocks as well as UIP deviations in explaining the puzzles.

In vivo detection of brain Krebs cycle intermediate by hyperpolarized magnetic resonance.

The Krebs (or tricarboxylic acid (TCA)) cycle has a central role in the regulation of brain energy regulation and metabolism, yet brain TCA cycle intermediates have never been directly detected in vivo. This study reports the first direct in vivo observation of a TCA cycle intermediate in intact brain, namely, 2-oxoglutarate, a key biomolecule connecting metabolism to neuronal activity. Our observation reveals important information about in vivo biochemical processes hitherto considered undetectable. In particular, it provides direct evidence that transport across the inner mitochondria membrane is rate limiting in the brain. The hyperpolarized magnetic resonance protocol designed for this study opens the way to direct and real-time studies of TCA cycle kinetics.