RANDOM EFFECTS MODELS IN A META-ANALYSIS OF THE ACCURACY OF DIAGNOSTIC TESTS WITHIN A GOLD STANDARD IN THE PRESENCE OF MISSING DATA

In evaluating the accuracy of diagnosis tests, it is common to apply two imperfect tests jointly or sequentially to a study population. In a recent meta-analysis of the accuracy of microsatellite instability testing (MSI) and traditional mutation analysis (MUT) in predicting germline mutations of the mismatch repair (MMR) genes, a Bayesian approach (Chen, Watson, and Parmigiani 2005) was proposed to handle missing data resulting from partial testing and the lack of a gold standard. In this paper, we demonstrate an improved estimation of the sensitivities and specificities of MSI and MUT by using a nonlinear mixed model and a Bayesian hierarchical model, both of which account for the heterogeneity across studies through study-specific random effects. The methods can be used to estimate the accuracy of two imperfect diagnostic tests in other meta-analyses when the prevalence of disease, the sensitivities and/or the specificities of diagnostic tests are heterogeneous among studies. Furthermore, simulation studies have demonstrated the importance of carefully selecting appropriate random effects on the estimation of diagnostic accuracy measurements in this scenario.

A review identifies and classifies reasons for ordering diagnostic tests

OBJECTIVE: To consider the reasons and context for test ordering by doctors when faced with an undiagnosed complaint in primary or secondary care. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We reviewed any study of any design that discussed factors that may affect a doctor's decision to order a test. Articles were located through searches of electronic databases, authors' files on diagnostic methodology, and reference lists of relevant studies. We extracted data on: study design, type of analysis, setting, topic area, and any factors reported to influence test ordering. RESULTS: We included 37 studies. We carried out a thematic analysis to synthesize data. Five key groupings arose from this process: diagnostic factors, therapeutic and prognostic factors, patient-related factors, doctor-related factors, and policy and organization-related factors. To illustrate how the various factors identified may influence test ordering we considered the symptom low back pain and the diagnosis multiple sclerosis as examples. CONCLUSIONS: A wide variety of factors influence a doctor's decision to order a test. These are integral to understanding diagnosis in clinical practice. Traditional diagnostic accuracy studies should be supplemented with research into the broader context in which doctors perform their work.

Natural anti-FcepsilonRIalpha autoantibodies may interfere with diagnostic tests for autoimmune urticaria.

IgG autoantibodies against the alpha-chain of the high affinity IgE receptor are claimed to play a pathogenetic role in autoimmune urticaria. The best methods for detection of functional autoantibodies are currently the autologous serum skin test and the basophil histamine release assay. A simplified and feasible screening test would facilitate the diagnosis of autoimmune urticaria. Here we offer an explanation for the difficulties in establishing a screening test for autoantibodies directed against the alpha-chain of the high affinity IgE receptor in autoimmune urticaria. Identical autoantibodies in chronic urticaria patients and healthy donors belonging to the natural autoantibody repertoire were found by sequence analysis of anti-alpha-chain autoantibodies isolated by repertoire cloning from antibody libraries. These natural autoantibodies bound to the receptor and triggered histamine release but only if IgE was previously removed from the receptor. Diagnostic assays used for detection of antibodies directed against the IgE receptor may require signal comparison with and without the artificial removal of IgE, immune complexes, and complement in order to avoid false positive or negative results. After IgE removal diagnostic tests will detect natural autoantibodies against the high affinity IgE receptor regardless of whether they are pathogenic or not.

Bayesian generalized linear models for meta-analysis of diagnostic tests

With the recognition of the importance of evidence-based medicine, there is an emerging need for methods to systematically synthesize available data. Specifically, methods to provide accurate estimates of test characteristics for diagnostic tests are needed to help physicians make better clinical decisions. To provide more flexible approaches for meta-analysis of diagnostic tests, we developed three Bayesian generalized linear models. Two of these models, a bivariate normal and a binomial model, analyzed pairs of sensitivity and specificity values while incorporating the correlation between these two outcome variables. Noninformative independent uniform priors were used for the variance of sensitivity, specificity and correlation. We also applied an inverse Wishart prior to check the sensitivity of the results. The third model was a multinomial model where the test results were modeled as multinomial random variables. All three models can include specific imaging techniques as covariates in order to compare performance. Vague normal priors were assigned to the coefficients of the covariates. The computations were carried out using the 'Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling' implementation of Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We investigated the properties of the three proposed models through extensive simulation studies. We also applied these models to a previously published meta-analysis dataset on cervical cancer as well as to an unpublished melanoma dataset. In general, our findings show that the point estimates of sensitivity and specificity were consistent among Bayesian and frequentist bivariate normal and binomial models. However, in the simulation studies, the estimates of the correlation coefficient from Bayesian bivariate models are not as good as those obtained from frequentist estimation regardless of which prior distribution was used for the covariance matrix. The Bayesian multinomial model consistently underestimated the sensitivity and specificity regardless of the sample size and correlation coefficient. In conclusion, the Bayesian bivariate binomial model provides the most flexible framework for future applications because of its following strengths: (1) it facilitates direct comparison between different tests; (2) it captures the variability in both sensitivity and specificity simultaneously as well as the intercorrelation between the two; and (3) it can be directly applied to sparse data without ad hoc correction. ^

Proceedings of the First Conference on Cancer Diagnostic Tests /

Mode of access: Internet.

Utility and safety of invasive (fractional flow reserve) and non-invasive (cardiac magnetic resonance imaging) diagnostic tests in patients with NSTEMI

A prospective randomised controlled clinical trial of treatment decisions informed by invasive functional testing of coronary artery disease severity compared with standard angiography-guided management was implemented in 350 patients with a recent non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) admitted to 6 hospitals in the National Health Service. The main aims of this study were to examine the utility of both invasive fractional flow reserve (FFR) and non-invasive cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) amongst patients with a recent diagnosis of NSTEMI. In summary, the findings of this thesis are: (1) the use of FFR combined with intravenous adenosine was feasible and safe amongst patients with NSTEMI and has clinical utility; (2) there was discordance between the visual, angiographic estimation of lesion significance and FFR; (3). The use of FFR led to changes in treatment strategy and an increase in prescription of medical therapy in the short term compared with an angiographically guided strategy; (4) in the incidence of major adverse cardiac events (MACE) at 12 months follow up was similar in the two groups. Cardiac MRI was used in a subset of patients enrolled in two hospitals in the West of Scotland. T1 and T2 mapping methods were used to delineate territories of acute myocardial injury. T1 and T2 mapping were superior when compared with conventional T2-weighted dark blood imaging for estimation of the ischaemic area-at-risk (AAR) with less artifact in NSTEMI. There was poor correlation between the angiographic AAR and MRI methods of AAR estimation in patients with NSTEMI. FFR had a high accuracy at predicting inducible perfusion defects demonstrated on stress perfusion MRI. This thesis describes the largest randomized trial published to date specifically looking at the clinical utility of FFR in the NSTEMI population. We have provided evidence of the diagnostic and clinical utility of FFR in this group of patients and provide evidence to inform larger studies. This thesis also describes the largest ever MRI cohort, including with myocardial stress perfusion assessments, specifically looking at the NSTEMI population. We have demonstrated the diagnostic accuracy of FFR to predict reversible ischaemia as referenced to a non-invasive gold standard with MRI. This thesis has also shown the futility of using dark blood oedema imaging amongst all comer NSTEMI patients when compared to novel T1 and T2 mapping methods.

Essential diagnostics - the role of the Department of Biomedical Research of the Royal Tropical Institute in the 21st century

In the light of emerging and overlooked infectious diseases and widespread drug resistance, diagnostics have become increasingly important in supporting surveillance, disease control and outbreak management programs. In many low-income countries the diagnostic service has been a neglected part of health care, often lacking quantity and quality or even non-existing at all. High-income countries have exploited few of their advanced technical abilities for the much-needed development of low-cost, rapid diagnostic tests to improve the accuracy of diagnosis and accelerate the start of appropriate treatment. As is now also recognized by World Healt Organization, investment in the development of affordable diagnostic tools is urgently needed to further our ability to control a variety of diseases that form a major threat to humanity. The Royal Tropical Institute's Department of Biomedical Research aims to contribute to the health of people living in the tropics. To this end, its multidisciplinary group of experts focuses on the diagnosis of diseases that are major health problems in low-income countries. In partnership we develop, improve and evaluate simple and cheap diagnostic tests, and perform epidemiological studies. Moreover, we advice and support others - especially those in developing countries - in their efforts to diagnose infectious diseases.

Access to diagnosis and treatment of Chagas disease/infection in endemic and non-endemic countries in the XXI century

In this article, Médicos Sin Fronteras (MSF) Spain faces the challenge of selecting, piecing together, and conveying in the clearest possible way, the main lessons learnt over the course of the last seven years in the world of medical care for Chagas disease. More than two thousand children under the age of 14 have been treated; the majority of whom come from rural Latin American areas with difficult access. It is based on these lessons learnt, through mistakes and successes, that MSF advocates that medical care for patients with Chagas disease be a reality, in a manner which is inclusive (not exclusive), integrated (with medical, psychological, social, and educational components), and in which the patient is actively followed. This must be a multi-disease approach with permanent quality controls in place based on primary health care (PHC). Rapid diagnostic tests and new medications should be available, as well as therapeutic plans and patient management (including side effects) with standardised flows for medical care for patients within PHC in relation to secondary and tertiary level, inclusive of epidemiological surveillance systems.

The potential for vaccination in leprosy elimination: new tools for targeted interventions

Despite the huge effort and massive advances toward the elimination of leprosy over the last two decades, the disease has proven stubborn; new case detection rates have stabilised over the last few years and leprosy remains endemic in a number of localised regions. The American Leprosy Missions and Infectious Disease Research Institute have undertaken a large research effort aimed at developing new tools and a vaccine to continue the push for leprosy elimination. In this paper, we outline our strategy for the integration of rapid diagnostic tests and lab-based assays to facilitate the detection of early or asymptomatic leprosy cases, as well as the efficient and focused implementation of chemoprophylaxis and immunisation to intervene in leprosy development and transmission.

Beyond malaria--causes of fever in outpatient Tanzanian children.

BACKGROUND: As the incidence of malaria diminishes, a better understanding of nonmalarial fever is important for effective management of illness in children. In this study, we explored the spectrum of causes of fever in African children. METHODS: We recruited children younger than 10 years of age with a temperature of 38°C or higher at two outpatient clinics--one rural and one urban--in Tanzania. Medical histories were obtained and clinical examinations conducted by means of systematic procedures. Blood and nasopharyngeal specimens were collected to perform rapid diagnostic tests, serologic tests, culture, and molecular tests for potential pathogens causing acute fever. Final diagnoses were determined with the use of algorithms and a set of prespecified criteria. RESULTS: Analyses of data derived from clinical presentation and from 25,743 laboratory investigations yielded 1232 diagnoses. Of 1005 children (22.6% of whom had multiple diagnoses), 62.2% had an acute respiratory infection; 5.0% of these infections were radiologically confirmed pneumonia. A systemic bacterial, viral, or parasitic infection other than malaria or typhoid fever was found in 13.3% of children, nasopharyngeal viral infection (without respiratory symptoms or signs) in 11.9%, malaria in 10.5%, gastroenteritis in 10.3%, urinary tract infection in 5.9%, typhoid fever in 3.7%, skin or mucosal infection in 1.5%, and meningitis in 0.2%. The cause of fever was undetermined in 3.2% of the children. A total of 70.5% of the children had viral disease, 22.0% had bacterial disease, and 10.9% had parasitic disease. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide a description of the numerous causes of fever in African children in two representative settings. Evidence of a viral process was found more commonly than evidence of a bacterial or parasitic process. (Funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation and others.).

Characterization of Fly Ash for Use in Concrete, HR-225, 1983

Recent construction of new generation power plants burning western coal within Iowa has resulted in fly Ash production on the order of 760,000 tons annually. Although fly ash has long been accepted as a valuable replacement for portland cement in concrete, most experience has been with fly ash generated from eastern bituminous coals. A few years ago, fly ash in Iowa was not a significant factor because production was small and economics dictated disposal as the better alternative than construction use. Today, the economic climate, coupled with abundance of the material, makes constructive use in concrete feasible. The problem is, however, fly ash produced from new power plants is different than that for which information was available. It seems fly ash types have outgrown existing standards. The objective of this study was to develop fundamental information about fly ashes available to construction in Iowa such that its advantages and limitations as replacement to portland cement can be defined. Evaluative techniques used in this work involve sophisticated laboratory equipment, not readily available to potential fly ash users, so a second goal was preliminary development of rapid diagnostic tests founded on fundamental information. Lastly, Iowa Department of Transportation research indicated an interesting interdependency among coarse aggregate type, fly ash and concrete's resistance to freeze-thaw action. Thus a third charge of this research project was to verify and determine the cause for the phenomena. One objective of this project was to determine properties of Iowa fly ashes and evaluate their relevance to use of the material as an admixture of PCC. This phase of the research involved two approaches. The first involved the development of a rapid method for determining quantitative elemental composition while the second was aimed at both qualitative and quantitative determination of compounds. X-ray fluorescence techniques were adapted for rapid determination of elemental composition of fly ash. The analysis was performed using a Siemens SR-200 sequential x-ray spectrometer controlled by a PDP-11-03 microcomputer. The spectrometer was equipped with a ten sample specimen chamber and four interchangeable analyzing crystals. Unfiltered excitation radiation was generated using a chromium tube at 50 KV and 48 ma. Programs for the spectrometer were developed by the Siemens Corporation.

Distribution and risk factors for Plasmodium and helminth co-infections: a cross-sectional survey among children in Bagamoyo district, coastal region of Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium and soil transmitted helminth infections (STH) are a major public health problem, particularly among children. There are conflicting findings on potential association between these two parasites. This study investigated the Plasmodium and helminth co-infections among children aged 2 months to 9 years living in Bagamoyo district, coastal region of Tanzania. METHODS: A community-based cross-sectional survey was conducted among 1033 children. Stool, urine and blood samples were examined using a broad set of quality controlled diagnostic methods for common STH (Ascaris lumbricoides, hookworm, Strongyloides stercoralis, Enterobius vermicularis, Trichuris trichura), schistosoma species and Wuchereria bancrofti. Blood slides and malaria rapid diagnostic tests (mRDTs) were utilized for Plasmodium diagnosis. RESULTS: Out of 992 children analyzed, the prevalence of Plasmodium infection was 13% (130/992), helminth 28.5% (283/992); 5% (50/992) had co-infection with Plasmodium and helminth. The prevalence rate of Plasmodium, specific STH and co-infections increased significantly with age (p < 0.001), with older children mostly affected except for S. stercoralis monoinfection and co-infections. Spatial variations of co-infection prevalence were observed between and within villages. There was a trend for STH infections to be associated with Plasmodium infection [OR adjusted for age group 1.4, 95% CI (1.0-2.1)], which was more marked for S. stercoralis (OR = 2.2, 95% CI (1.1-4.3). Age and not schooling were risk factors for Plasmodium and STH co-infection. CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that STH and Plasmodium infections tend to occur in the same children, with increasing prevalence of co-infection with age. This calls for an integrated approach such as using mass chemotherapy with dual effect (e.g., ivermectin) coupled with improved housing, sanitation and hygiene for the control of both parasitic infections.

New Algorithm for Managing Childhood Illness Using Mobile Technology (ALMANACH): A Controlled Non-Inferiority Study on Clinical Outcome and Antibiotic Use in Tanzania.

INTRODUCTION: The decline of malaria and scale-up of rapid diagnostic tests calls for a revision of IMCI. A new algorithm (ALMANACH) running on mobile technology was developed based on the latest evidence. The objective was to ensure that ALMANACH was safe, while keeping a low rate of antibiotic prescription. METHODS: Consecutive children aged 2-59 months with acute illness were managed using ALMANACH (2 intervention facilities), or standard practice (2 control facilities) in Tanzania. Primary outcomes were proportion of children cured at day 7 and who received antibiotics on day 0. RESULTS: 130/842 (15∙4%) in ALMANACH and 241/623 (38∙7%) in control arm were diagnosed with an infection in need for antibiotic, while 3∙8% and 9∙6% had malaria. 815/838 (97∙3%;96∙1-98.4%) were cured at D7 using ALMANACH versus 573/623 (92∙0%;89∙8-94∙1%) using standard practice (p<0∙001). Of 23 children not cured at D7 using ALMANACH, 44% had skin problems, 30% pneumonia, 26% upper respiratory infection and 13% likely viral infection at D0. Secondary hospitalization occurred for one child using ALMANACH and one who eventually died using standard practice. At D0, antibiotics were prescribed to 15∙4% (12∙9-17∙9%) using ALMANACH versus 84∙3% (81∙4-87∙1%) using standard practice (p<0∙001). 2∙3% (1∙3-3.3) versus 3∙2% (1∙8-4∙6%) received an antibiotic secondarily. CONCLUSION: Management of children using ALMANACH improve clinical outcome and reduce antibiotic prescription by 80%. This was achieved through more accurate diagnoses and hence better identification of children in need of antibiotic treatment or not. The building on mobile technology allows easy access and rapid update of the decision chart. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry PACTR201011000262218.