Identification and characterization of drought/wet events homogeneous environments based on regional climate simulations

The objective of this study was to identify and characterize homogeneous environments based on the probability of drought/wet occurrence in the central-northern Brazil, considering Rondonia, Mato Grosso, Goias and Tocantins States. The drought index denominated the moisture anomaly Z-index (Z-index) was used. The input climate data for the drought index was generated by the regional climate model RegCM3 for the period from 1975 to 1989. As result of cluster analysis, it was identified 13 homogeneous environments. These environments were characterized based on the probability of drought/wet, relative density of drought/wet occurrence, annual rainfall variability and probability of drought occurrence during the rainy season (October to March). The Mato Grosso State had the highest number of homogeneous environments and the environment 11, located at southwest of this State had the highest probability of drought occurrence, 9%. The environment 10, located at the extreme east of Goias State, showed the lowest median for the total annual rainfall. The climatic event with the highest probability of occurrence in the study area is close to normal or normality moisture.

Droughts and famines: The underlying factors and the causal links among agro-pastoral households in semi-arid Makueni district, Kenya

Famines are often linked to drought in semi-arid areas of Sub-Saharan Africa where not only pastoralists, but also increasingly agro-pastoralists are affected. This study addresses the interplay between drought and famine in the rural semi-arid areas of Makueni district, Kenya, by examining whether, and how crop production conditions and agro-pastoral strategies predispose smallholder households to drought-triggered food insecurity. If this hypothesis holds, then approaches to deal with drought and famine have to target factors causing household food insecurity during non-drought periods. Data from a longitudinal survey of 127 households, interviews, workshops, and daily rainfall records (1961–2003) were analysed using quantitative and qualitative methods. This integrated approach confirms the above hypothesis and reveals that factors other than rainfall, like asset and labour constraints, inadequate policy enforcement, as well as the poverty-driven inability to adopt risk-averse production systems play a key role. When linking these factors to the high rainfall variability, farmer-relevant definitions and forecasts of drought have to be applied.

Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years

This study presents the first consolidation of palaeoclimate proxy records from multiple archives to develop statistical rainfall reconstructions for southern Africa covering the last two centuries. State-of-the-art ensemble reconstructions reveal multi-decadal rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones. A decrease in precipitation amount over time is identified in the summer rainfall zone. No significant change in precipitation amount occurred in the winter rainfall zone, but rainfall variability has increased over time. Generally synchronous rainfall fluctuations between the two zones are identified on decadal scales, with common wet (dry) periods reconstructed around 1890 (1930). A strong relationship between seasonal rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding oceans is confirmed. Coherence among decadal-scale fluctuations of southern African rainfall, regional SST, SSTs in the Pacific Ocean and rainfall in south-eastern Australia suggest SST-rainfall teleconnections across the southern hemisphere. Temporal breakdowns of the SST-rainfall relationship in the southern African regions and the connection between the two rainfall zones are observed, for example during the 1950s. Our results confirm the complex interplay between large-scale teleconnections, regional SSTs and local effects in modulating multi-decadal southern African rainfall variability over long timescales.

Mineralogy of sediment core GeoB3313-1

Geochemical and clay mineral parameters of a high accumulation marine sediment core from the Chilean continental slope (41°S) provide a 7700 yr record of rainfall variability in southern Chile related to the position of the Southern Westerlies. We especially use the iron content, measured with a time-resolution of ca. 10 yr on average, of 14C-accelerator mass spectrometry dated marine sediments as a proxy for the relative input of iron-poor Coastal Range and iron-rich Andean source rocks. Variations in this input are most likely induced by rainfall changes in the continental hinterland of the core position. Based on these interpretations, we find a pronounced rainfall variability on multi-centennial to millennial time-scales, superimposed on generally more arid conditions during the middle Holocene (7700 to 4000 cal yr B.P.) compared to the late Holocene (4000 to present). This variability and thus changes in the position of the Southern Westerlies are first compared to regional terrestrial paleoclimate data-sets from central and southern Chile. In order to derive possible wider implications and forcing mechanisms of the Holocene latitudinal shifts of the Southern Westerlies, we then compare our data to ice-core records from both tropical South America and coastal Antarctica. These records show similar bands of variability centered at ca. 900 and 1500 yr. Comparisons of band pass filters suggest a close connection of shifts of the Southern Westerlies to changes within the tropical climate system. The correlation to climate conditions in coastal Antarctica shows a more complicated picture with a phase shift at the beginning of the late Holocene coinciding with the onset of the modern state of El Niño-Southern Oscillation system. The presented data provide further evidence that the well known millennial-scale climate variability during the last glacial continued throughout the Holocene.

Stable hydrogen isotopic composition (dD) and stable carbon isotopic composition (d13C) of sediment core GeoB9508-5 off Senegal

To reconstruct variability of the West African monsoon and associated vegetation changes on precessional and millennial time scales, we analyzed a marine sediment core from the continental slope off Senegal spanning the past 44,000 years (44 ka). We used the stable hydrogen isotopic composition (dD) of individual terrestrial plant wax n-alkanes as a proxy for past rainfall variability. The abundance and stable carbon isotopic composition (d13C) of the same compounds were analyzed to assess changes in vegetation composition (C3/C4 plants) and density. The dD record reveals two wet periods that coincide with local maximum summer insolation from 38 to 28 ka and 15 to 4 ka and that are separated by a less wet period during minimum summer insolation. Our data indicate that rainfall intensity during the rainy season throughout both wet humid periods was similar, whereas the length of the rainy season was presumably shorter during the last glacial than during the Holocene. Additional dry intervals are identified that coincide with North Atlantic Heinrich stadials and the Younger Dryas interval, indicating that the West African monsoon over tropical northwest Africa is linked to both insolation forcing and high-latitude climate variability. The d13C record indicates that vegetation of the western Sahel was consistently dominated by C4 plants during the past 44 ka, whereas C3-type vegetation increased during the Holocene. Moreover, we observe a gradual ending of the Holocene humid period together with unchanging ratio of C3 to C4 plants, indicating that an abrupt aridification due to vegetation feedbacks is not a general characteristic of this time interval.

Sediment geochemistry, foraminiferal fauna parameter, census counts and Varimax PC-factor loadings and scores of foraminiferal assemblages of sediment core GeoB12615-4

Analogous to West- and North Africa, East Africa experienced more humid conditions between approximately 12 to 5 kyr BP, relative to today. While timing and extension of wet phases in the North and West are well constrained, this is not the case for the East African Humid Period. Here we present a record of benthic foraminiferal assemblages and sediment elemental compositions of a sediment core from the East African continental slope, in order to provide insight into the regional shallow Indian Ocean paleoceanography and East African climate history of the last 40 kyr. During glacial times, the dominance of a benthic foraminiferal assemblage characterized by Bulimina aculeata, suggests enhanced surface productivity and sustained flux of organic carbon to the sea floor. During Heinrich Stadial 1 (H1), the Nuttallides rugosus Assemblage indicates oligotrophic bottom water conditions and therefore implies a stronger flow of southern-sourced AAIW to the study site. During the East African Humid Period, the Saidovina karreriana Assemblage in combination with sedimentary C/N and Fe/Ca ratios suggest higher river runoff to the Indian Ocean, and hence more humid conditions in East Africa. Between 8.5 and 8.1 kyr, contemporaneous to the globally documented 8.2 kyr Event, a severe reduction in river deposits implies more arid conditions on the continent. Comparison of our marine data with terrestrial studies suggests that additional moisture from the Atlantic Ocean, delivered by an eastward migration of the Congo Air Boundary during that time period, could have contributed to East African rainfall. Since approximately 9 kyr, the gaining influence of the Millettiana millettii Assemblage indicates a redevelopment of the East African fringe reefs.

XRF-scanned elemental concentrations from sediment cores off Peru

We present a high-resolution marine record of sediment input from the Guayas River, Ecuador, that reflects changes in precipitation along western equatorial South America during the last 18ka. We use log (Ti/Ca) derived from X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) to document terrigenous input from riverine runoff that integrates rainfall from the Guayas River catchment. We find that rainfall-induced riverine runoff has increased during the Holocene and decreased during the last deglaciation. Superimposed on those long-term trends, we find that rainfall was probably slightly increased during the Younger Dryas, while the Heinrich event 1 was marked by an extreme load of terrigenous input, probably reflecting one of the wettest period over the time interval studied. When we compare our results to other Deglacial to Holocene rainfall records located across the tropical South American continent, different modes of variability become apparent. The records of rainfall variability imply that changes in the hydrological cycle at orbital and sub-orbital timescales were different from western to eastern South America. Orbital forcing caused an antiphase behavior in rainfall trends between eastern and western equatorial South America. In contrast, millennial-scale rainfall changes, remotely connected to the North Atlantic climate variability, led to homogenously wetter conditions over eastern and western equatorial South America during North Atlantic cold spells. These results may provide helpful diagnostics for testing the regional rainfall sensitivity in climate models and help to refine rainfall projections in South America for the next century.

Spatial and temporal precipitation patterns of the Ebro River Basin, Spain

The Ebro River Basin, with around 85 000 km2 and located in NE Spain, is characterized by the high spatial heterogeneity of its geology, topography, climatology and land use. Rainfall is one of the most important climatic variables studied owing to its non-homogenous behaviour in event and intensity, which creates drought, water runoff and soil erosion with negative environmental and social consequences. In this work we characterized the rainfall variability pattern in the Ebro River Basin using universal multifractal (UM) analysis, which estimates the concentration of the data around the precipitation average (C1, codimension average), the degree of multiscaling behaviour in time (? index) and the maximum probable singularity in the rainfall distribution ( s). A spatial and temporal analysis of the UM parameters is applied to study the possible changes. With this porpoise, 60 daily rainfall series were selected from 132 synthetic series generated by Luna and Balairón (AEMet). These daily rainfall series present a length of 60 years, from 1950 to 2009. Each one of them was subdivided (1950?1970 and 1980?2009) to analyse the difference between the two periods. The range of variation of precipitation amounts and the frequency of dry events between both periods are discussed, as well as the evolution of the UM parameters through the years.