No news in business cycles

This paper uses a structural, large dimensional factor model to evaluate the role of 'news' shocks (shocks with a delayed effect on productivity) in generating the business cycle. We find that (i) existing small-scale VECM models are affected by 'non-fundamentalness' and therefore fail to recover the correct shock and impulse response functions; (ii) news shocks have a limited role in explaining the business cycle; (iii) their effects are in line with what predicted by standard neoclassical theory; (iv) the bulk of business cycle fluctuations are explained by shocks unrelated to technology.

Shocking policy coefficients

This paper proposes an empirical framework to study the effects of a policy regime change defined as an unpredictable and permanent change in the policy parameters. In particular I show how to make conditional forecast and perform impulse response functions and counterfactual analysis. As an application, the effects of changes in fiscal policy rules in the US are investigated. I find that discretionary fiscal policy has become more countercyclical over the last decades. In absence of such a change, surplus would have been higher, debt lower and output gap more volatile but only until mid 80s. An increase in the degree of counter-cyclicality of fiscal policy has a positive effect on output gap in periods where the level of debt-to-GDP ratio is low and a zero or negative effect when the ratio is high. This explains why a more countercylical stance of the systematic fiscal policy taking place in 2008:II is predicted to be rather ineffective for recovering from the crisis.

The Persistence of Inflation in OECDCountries: a Fractionally Integrated Approach

The statistical properties of inflation and, in particular, its degree of persistence and stability over time is a subject of intense debate and no consensus has been achieved yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze this controversy using a general approach, with the aim of providing a plausible explanation for the existing contradictory results. We consider the inflation rates of 21 OECD countries which are modelled as fractionally integrated (FI) processes. First, we show analytically that FI can appear in inflation rates after aggregating individual prices from firms that face different costs of adjusting their prices. Then, we provide robust empirical evidence supporting the FI hypothesis using both classical and Bayesian techniques. Next, we estimate impulse response functions and other scalar measures of persistence, achieving an accurate picture of this property and its variation across countries. It is shown that the application of some popular tools for measuring persistence, such as the sum of the AR coefficients, could lead to erroneous conclusions if fractional integration is present. Finally, we explore the existence of changes in inflation inertia using a novel approach. We conclude that the persistence of inflation is very high (although non-permanent) in most post-industrial countries and that it has remained basically unchanged over the last four decades.

The persistence of inflation in OECD countries: A fractionally integrated approach

The statistical properties of inflation and, in particular, its degree of persistence and stability over time is a subject of intense debate and no consensus has been achieved yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze this controversy using a general approach, with the aim of providing a plausible explanation for the existing contradictory results. We consider the inflation rates of 21 OECD countries which are modelled as fractionally integrated (FI) processes. First, we show analytically that FI can appear in inflation rates after aggregating individual prices from firms that face different costs of adjusting their prices. Then, we provide robust empirical evidence supporting the FI hypothesis using both classical and Bayesian techniques. Next, we estimate impulse response functions and other scalar measures of persistence, achieving an accurate picture of this property and its variation across countries. It is shown that the application of some popular tools for measuring persistence, such as the sum of the AR coefficients, could lead to erroneous conclusions if fractional integration is present. Finally, we explore the existence of changes in inflation inertia using a novel approach. We conclude that the persistence of inflation is very high (although non-permanent) in most post-industrial countries and that it has remained basically unchanged over the last four decades.

Optimal taxation without state-contingent debt

To recover a version of Barro's (1979) `random walk'tax smoothing outcome, we modify Lucas and Stokey's (1983) economyto permit only risk--free debt. This imparts near unit root like behaviorto government debt, independently of the government expenditureprocess, a realistic outcome in the spirit of Barro's. We showhow the risk--free--debt--only economy confronts the Ramsey plannerwith additional constraints on equilibrium allocations thattake the form of a sequence of measurability conditions.We solve the Ramsey problem by formulating it in terms of a Lagrangian,and applying a Parameterized Expectations Algorithm tothe associated first--order conditions. The first--order conditions andnumerical impulse response functions partially affirmBarro's random walk outcome. Though the behaviors oftax rates, government surpluses, and government debts differ, allocationsare very close for computed Ramsey policies across incomplete and completemarkets economies.

Distribution of single-particle strength due to short-range and tensor correlations

The distribution of single-particle strength in nuclear matter is calculated for a realistic nucleon-nucleon interaction. The influence of the short-range repulsion and the tensor component of the nuclear force on the spectral functions is to move approximately 13% of the total strength for all single-particle states beyond 100 MeV into the particle domain. This result is related to the abundantly observed quenching phenomena in nuclei which include the reduction of spectroscopic factors observed in (e,ep) reactions and the missing strength in low energy response functions.

Pineapple yield and fruit quality effected by NPK fertilization in a tropical soil

There is a lack of information about fertilization of pineapple grown in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. So a field experiment with pineapple 'Smooth Cayenne' was carried out to study the effects of NPK rates on yield and fruit quality. The trial was located on an Alfisol in the central part of the State of São Paulo (Agudos county). The experimental design was an incomplete NPK factorial, with 32 treatments set up in two blocks. The P was applied only at planting, at the rates of 0; 80; 160 and 320 kg/ha of P2 0(5), as superphosphate. The N and K2O rates were 0; 175; 350, and 700 kg/ha, applied as urea and potassium chloride, respectively, divided in four applications during the growth period. Response functions were adjusted to yield or to fruit characteristics in order to estimate the nutrient rates required to reach maximum values. The results showed quadratic effects of N and K on yield and a maximum of 72 t/ha of fresh fruit was attained with rates of 498 and 394 kg/ha, respectively of N and K2O. In order to reach the maximum fruit size, and to improve the percentage of first class fruit (mass greater than 2.6 kg), were necessary rates of N and K respectively 11 and 43 % higher than those for maximum yield. No effect of P rates was observed on pineapple plant growth, despite the low availability of this nutrient in the soil. The effect of N rates was negative on total soluble solids and total acidity while the opposite occurred with K, which increased also the content of vitamin C. High yield and fruit size were closely related to N and K concentrations in the leaves.

Critical behavior of a water monolayer under hydrophobic confinement

The properties of water can have a strong dependence on the confinement. Here, we consider a water monolayer nanoconfined between hydrophobic parallel walls under conditions that prevent its crystallization. We investigate, by simulations of a many-body coarse-grained water model, how the properties of the liquid are affected by the confinement. We show, by studying the response functions and the correlation length and by performing finite-size scaling of the appropriate order parameter, that at low temperature the monolayer undergoes a liquid-liquid phase transition ending in a critical point in the universality class of the two-dimensional (2D) Ising model. Surprisingly, by reducing the linear size L of the walls, keeping the walls separation h constant, we find a 2D-3D crossover for the universality class of the liquid-liquid critical point for L/h=~50, i.e. for a monolayer thickness that is small compared to its extension. This result is drastically different from what is reported for simple liquids, where the crossover occurs for , and is consistent with experimental results and atomistic simulations. We shed light on these findings showing that they are a consequence of the strong cooperativity and the low coordination number of the hydrogen bond network that characterizes water.

Broadband excitation in the system identification of active magnetic bearing rotor systems

One of the targets of the climate and energy package of the European Union is to increase the energy efficiency in order to achieve a 20 percent reduction in primary energy use compared with the projected level by 2020. The energy efficiency can be improved for example by increasing the rotational speed of large electrical drives, because this enables the elimination of gearboxes leading to a compact design with lower losses. The rotational speeds of traditional bearings, such as roller bearings, are limited by mechanical friction. Active magnetic bearings (AMBs), on the other hand, allow very high rotational speeds. Consequently, their use in large medium- and high-speed machines has rapidly increased. An active magnetic bearing rotor system is an inherently unstable, nonlinear multiple-input, multiple-output system. Model-based controller design of AMBs requires an accurate system model. Finite element modeling (FEM) together with the experimental modal analysis provides a very accurate model for the rotor, and a linearized model of the magneticactuators has proven to work well in normal conditions. However, the overall system may suffer from unmodeled dynamics, such as dynamics of foundation or shrink fits. This dynamics can be modeled by system identification. System identification can also be used for on-line diagnostics. In this study, broadband excitation signals are adopted to the identification of an active magnetic bearing rotor system. The broadband excitation enables faster frequency response function measurements when compared with the widely used stepped sine and swept sine excitations. Different broadband excitations are reviewed, and the random phase multisine excitation is chosen for further study. The measurement times using the multisine excitation and the stepped sine excitation are compared. An excitation signal design with an analysis of the harmonics produced by the nonlinear system is presented. The suitability of different frequency response function estimators for an AMB rotor system are also compared. Additionally, analytical modeling of an AMB rotor system, obtaining a parametric model from the nonparametric frequency response functions, and model updating are discussed in brief, as they are key elements in the modeling for a control design. Theoretical methods are tested with a laboratory test rig. The results conclude that an appropriately designed random phase multisine excitation is suitable for the identification of AMB rotor systems.

Using passive techniques for vibration damping in mechanical systems

This paper examines two passive techniques for vibration reduction in mechanical systems: the first one is based on dynamic vibration absorbers (DVAs) and the second uses resonant circuit shunted (RCS) piezoceramics. Genetic algorithms are used to determine the optimal design parameters with respect to performance indexes, which are associated with the dynamical behavior of the system over selected frequency bands. The calculation of the frequency response functions (FRFs) of the composite structure (primary system + DVAs) is performed through a substructure coupling technique. A modal technique is used to determine the frequency response function of the structure containing shunted piezoceramics which are bonded to the primary structure. The use of both techniques simultaneously on the same structure is investigated. The methodology developed is illustrated by numerical applications in which the primary structure is represented by simple Euler-Bernoulli beams. However, the design aspects of vibration control devices presented in this paper can be extended to more complex structures.

Narrow-band 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 16 and 24 cycles/360º angular frequency filters

We measured human frequency response functions for seven angular frequency filters whose test frequencies were centered at 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 16 or 24 cycles/360º using a supra-threshold summation method. The seven functions of 17 experimental conditions each were measured nine times for five observers. For the arbitrarily selected filter phases, the maximum summation effect occurred at test frequency for filters at 1, 2, 3, 4 and 8 cycles/360º. For both 16 and 24 cycles/360º test frequencies, maximum summation occurred at the lower harmonics. These results allow us to conclude that there are narrow-band angular frequency filters operating somehow in the human visual system either through summation or inhibition of specific frequency ranges. Furthermore, as a general result, it appears that addition of higher angular frequencies to lower ones disturbs low angular frequency perception (i.e., 1, 2, 3 and 4 cycles/360º), whereas addition of lower harmonics to higher ones seems to improve detection of high angular frequency harmonics (i.e., 8, 16 and 24 cycles/360º). Finally, we discuss the possible involvement of coupled radial and angular frequency filters in face perception using an example where narrow-band low angular frequency filters could have a major role.

Dynamic linkages of real estate and stock markets in Finland

Traditionally real estate has been seen as a good diversification tool for a stock portfolio due to the lower return and volatility characteristics of real estate investments. However, the diversification benefits of a multi-asset portfolio depend on how the different asset classes co-move in the short- and long-run. As the asset classes are affected by the same macroeconomic factors, interrelationships limiting the diversification benefits could exist. This master’s thesis aims to identify such dynamic linkages in the Finnish real estate and stock markets. The results are beneficial for portfolio optimization tasks as well as for policy-making. The real estate industry can be divided into direct and securitized markets. In this thesis the direct market is depicted by the Finnish housing market index. The securitized market is proxied by the Finnish all-sectors securitized real estate index and by a European residential Real Estate Investment Trust index. The stock market is depicted by OMX Helsinki Cap index. Several macroeconomic variables are incorporated as well. The methodology of this thesis is based on the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. The long-run dynamic linkages are studied with Johansen’s cointegration tests and the short-run interrelationships are examined with Granger-causality tests. In addition, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition analyses are used for robustness checks. The results show that long-run co-movement, or cointegration, did not exist between the housing and stock markets during the sample period. This indicates diversification benefits in the long-run. However, cointegration between the stock and securitized real estate markets was identified. This indicates limited diversification benefits and shows that the listed real estate market in Finland is not matured enough to be considered a separate market from the general stock market. Moreover, while securitized real estate was shown to cointegrate with the housing market in the long-run, the two markets are still too different in their characteristics to be used as substitutes in a multi-asset portfolio. This implies that the capital intensiveness of housing investments cannot be circumvented by investing in securitized real estate.

Développement d'un nouveau critère pour déterminer les limites d'utilisation des détecteurs en dosimétrie non standard

Depuis quelques années, il y a un intérêt de la communauté en dosimétrie d'actualiser les protocoles de dosimétrie des faisceaux larges tels que le TG-51 (AAPM) et le TRS-398 (IAEA) aux champs non standard qui requièrent un facteur de correction additionnel. Or, ces facteurs de correction sont difficiles à déterminer précisément dans un temps acceptable. Pour les petits champs, ces facteurs augmentent rapidement avec la taille de champ tandis que pour les champs d'IMRT, les incertitudes de positionnement du détecteur rendent une correction cas par cas impraticable. Dans cette étude, un critère théorique basé sur la fonction de réponse dosimétrique des détecteurs est développé pour déterminer dans quelles situations les dosimètres peuvent être utilisés sans correction. Les réponses de quatre chambres à ionisation, d'une chambre liquide, d'un détecteur au diamant, d'une diode, d'un détecteur à l'alanine et d'un détecteur à scintillation sont caractérisées à 6 MV et 25 MV. Plusieurs stratégies sont également suggérées pour diminuer/éliminer les facteurs de correction telles que de rapporter la dose absorbée à un volume et de modifier les matériaux non sensibles du détecteur pour pallier l'effet de densité massique. Une nouvelle méthode de compensation de la densité basée sur une fonction de perturbation est présentée. Finalement, les résultats démontrent que le détecteur à scintillation peut mesurer les champs non standard utilisés en clinique avec une correction inférieure à 1%.

Trois essais en macroéconomie

Les fluctuations économiques représentent les mouvements de la croissance économique. Celle-ci peut connaître des phases d'accélération (expansion) ou de ralentissement (récession), voire même de dépression si la baisse de production est persistente. Les fluctuations économiques sont liées aux écarts entre croissance effective et croissance potentielle. Elles peuvent s'expliquer par des chocs d'offre et demande, ainsi que par le cycle du crédit. Dans le premier cas, les conditions de la production se trouvent modifiées. C'est le cas lorsque le prix des facteurs de production (salaires, prix des matières premières) ou que des facteurs externes influençant le prix des produits (taux de change) évolue. Ainsi, une hausse du prix des facteurs de production provoque un choc négatif et ralentit la croissance. Ce ralentissement peut être également dû à un choc de demande négatif provoqué par une hausse du prix des produits causée par une appréciation de la devise, engendrant une diminution des exportations. Le deuxième cas concerne les variables financières et les actifs financiers. Ainsi, en période d'expansion, les agents économiques s'endettent et ont des comportements spéculatifs en réaction à des chocs d'offre ou demande anticipés. La valeur des titres et actifs financiers augmente, provoquant une bulle qui finit par éclater et provoquer un effondrement de la valeur des biens. Dès lors, l'activité économique ne peut plus être financée. C'est ce qui génère une récession, parfois profonde, comme lors de la récente crise financière. Cette thèse inclut trois essais sur les fluctuations macroéconomiques et les cycles économiques, plus précisément sur les thèmes décrit ci-dessus. Le premier chapitre s'intéresse aux anticipations sur la politique monétaire et sur la réaction des agents écononomiques face à ces anticipations. Une emphase particulière est mise sur la consommation de biens durables et l'endettement relié à ce type de consommation. Le deuxième chapitre aborde la question de l'influence des variations du taux de change sur la demande de travail dans le secteur manufacturier canadien. Finalement, le troisième chapitre s'intéresse aux retombées économiques, parfois négatives, du marché immobilier sur la consommation des ménages et aux répercussions sur le prix des actifs immobiliers et sur l'endettement des ménages d'anticipations infondées sur la demande dans le marché immobilier. Le premier chapitre, intitulé ``Monetary Policy News Shocks and Durable Consumption'', fournit une étude sur le lien entre les dépenses en biens durables et les chocs monétaires anticipés. Nous proposons et mettons en oeuvre une nouvelle approche pour identifier les chocs anticipés (nouvelles) de politique monétaire, en les identifiant de manière récursive à partir des résidus d’une règle de Taylor estimée à l’aide de données de sondage multi-horizon. Nous utilisons ensuite les chocs anticipés inférer dans un modèle autorégressif vectoriel structurel (ARVS). L’anticipation d’une politique de resserrement monétaire mène à une augmentation de la production, de la consommation de biens non-durables et durables, ainsi qu’à une augmentation du prix réel des biens durables. Bien que les chocs anticipés expliquent une part significative des variations de la production et de la consommation, leur impact est moindre que celui des chocs non-anticipés sur les fluctuations économiques. Finalement, nous menons une analyse théorique avec un modèle d’équilibre général dynamique stochastique (EGDS) avec biens durables et rigidités nominales. Les résultats indiquent que le modèle avec les prix des biens durables rigides peut reproduire la corrélation positive entre les fonctions de réponse de la consommation de biens non-durables et durables à un choc anticipé de politique monétaire trouvées à l’aide du ARVS. Le second chapitre s'intitule ``Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Labour Market Adjustments in Canadian Manufacturing Industries''. Dans ce chapitre, nous évaluons la sensibilité de l'emploi et des heures travaillées dans les industries manufacturières canadiennes aux variations du taux de change. L’analyse est basée sur un modèle dynamique de demande de travail et utilise l’approche en deux étapes pour l'estimation des relations de cointégration en données de panel. Nos données sont prises d’un panel de 20 industries manufacturières, provenant de la base de données KLEMS de Statistique Canada, et couvrent une longue période qui inclut deux cycles complets d’appréciation-dépréciation de la valeur du dollar canadien. Les effets nets de l'appréciation du dollar canadien se sont avérés statistiquement et économiquement significatifs et négatifs pour l'emploi et les heures travaillées, et ses effets sont plus prononcés dans les industries davantage exposées au commerce international. Finalement, le dernier chapitre s'intitule ``Housing Market Dynamics and Macroprudential Policy'', dans lequel nous étudions la relation statistique suggérant un lien collatéral entre le marché immobilier and le reste de l'économique et si ce lien est davantage entraîné par des facteurs de demandes ou d'offres. Nous suivons également la littérature sur les chocs anticipés et examinons un cyle d'expansion-récession peut survenir de façon endogène la suite d'anticipations non-réalisées d'une hausse de la demande de logements. À cette fin, nous construisons un modèle néo-Keynésien au sein duquel le pouvoir d’emprunt du partie des consommateurs est limité par la valeur de leur patrimoine immobilier. Nous estimons le modèle en utilisant une méthode Bayésienne avec des données canadiennes. Nous évaluons la capacité du modèle à capter les caractéristiques principales de la consommation et du prix des maisons. Finalement, nous effectuons une analyse pour déterminer dans quelle mesure l'introduction d'un ratio prêt-à-la-valeur contracyclique peut réduire l'endettement des ménages et les fluctuations du prix des maisons comparativement à une règle de politique monétaire répondant à l'inflation du prix des maisons. Nous trouvons une relation statistique suggérant un important lien collatéral entre le marché immobilier et le reste de l'économie, et ce lien s'explique principalement par des facteurs de demande. Nous constatons également que l'introduction de chocs anticipés peut générer un cycle d'expansion-récession du marché immobilier, la récession faisant suite aux attentes non-réalisées par rapport à la demande de logements. Enfin, notre étude suggère également qu'un ratio contracyclique de prêt-à-la-valeur est une politique utile pour réduire les retombées du marché du logement sur la consommation par l'intermédiaire de la valeur garantie.

Designing dietary interventions: a reappraisal of the demographic and socio-economic determinants of dietary choice in the UK

The facilitation of healthier dietary choices by consumers is one of the key elements of the UK Government’s food strategy. Designing and targeting dietary interventions requires a clear understanding of the determinants of dietary choice. Conventional analysis of the determinants of dietary choice has focused on mean response functions which may mask significant differences in the dietary behaviour of different segments of the population. In this paper we use a quantile regression approach to investigate how food consumption behaviour varies amongst UK households in different segments of the population, especially in the upper and lower quantiles characterised by healthy or unhealthy consumption patterns. We find that the effect of demographic determinants of dietary choice on households that exhibit less healthy consumption patterns differs significantly from that on households that make healthier consumption choices. A more nuanced understanding of the differences in the behavioural responses of households making less-healthy eating choices provides useful insights for the design and targeting of measures to promote healthier diets.