Real - time prediction of rainfall induced instability of residual soil slopes associated with deep cracks

The early warning based on real-time prediction of rain-induced instability of natural residual slopes helps to minimise human casualties due to such slope failures. Slope instability prediction is complicated, as it is influenced by many factors, including soil properties, soil behaviour, slope geometry, and the location and size of deep cracks in the slope. These deep cracks can facilitate rainwater infiltration into the deep soil layers and reduce the unsaturated shear strength of residual soil. Subsequently, it can form a slip surface, triggering a landslide even in partially saturated soil slopes. Although past research has shown the effects of surface-cracks on soil stability, research examining the influence of deep-cracks on soil stability is very limited. This study aimed to develop methodologies for predicting the real-time rain-induced instability of natural residual soil slopes with deep cracks. The results can be used to warn against potential rain-induced slope failures. The literature review conducted on rain induced slope instability of unsaturated residual soil associated with soil crack, reveals that only limited studies have been done in the following areas related to this topic: - Methods for detecting deep cracks in residual soil slopes. - Practical application of unsaturated soil theory in slope stability analysis. - Mechanistic methods for real-time prediction of rain induced residual soil slope instability in critical slopes with deep cracks. Two natural residual soil slopes at Jombok Village, Ngantang City, Indonesia, which are located near a residential area, were investigated to obtain the parameters required for the stability analysis of the slope. A survey first identified all related field geometrical information including slope, roads, rivers, buildings, and boundaries of the slope. Second, the electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) method was used on the slope to identify the location and geometrical characteristics of deep cracks. The two ERT array models employed in this research are: Dipole-dipole and Azimuthal. Next, bore-hole tests were conducted at different locations in the slope to identify soil layers and to collect undisturbed soil samples for laboratory measurement of the soil parameters required for the stability analysis. At the same bore hole locations, Standard Penetration Test (SPT) was undertaken. Undisturbed soil samples taken from the bore-holes were tested in a laboratory to determine the variation of the following soil properties with the depth: - Classification and physical properties such as grain size distribution, atterberg limits, water content, dry density and specific gravity. - Saturated and unsaturated shear strength properties using direct shear apparatus. - Soil water characteristic curves (SWCC) using filter paper method. - Saturated hydraulic conductivity. The following three methods were used to detect and simulate the location and orientation of cracks in the investigated slope: (1) The electrical resistivity distribution of sub-soil obtained from ERT. (2) The profile of classification and physical properties of the soil, based on laboratory testing of soil samples collected from bore-holes and visual observations of the cracks on the slope surface. (3) The results of stress distribution obtained from 2D dynamic analysis of the slope using QUAKE/W software, together with the laboratory measured soil parameters and earthquake records of the area. It was assumed that the deep crack in the slope under investigation was generated by earthquakes. A good agreement was obtained when comparing the location and the orientation of the cracks detected by Method-1 and Method-2. However, the simulated cracks in Method-3 were not in good agreement with the output of Method-1 and Method-2. This may have been due to the material properties used and the assumptions made, for the analysis. From Method-1 and Method-2, it can be concluded that the ERT method can be used to detect the location and orientation of a crack in a soil slope, when the ERT is conducted in very dry or very wet soil conditions. In this study, the cracks detected by the ERT were used for stability analysis of the slope. The stability of the slope was determined using the factor of safety (FOS) of a critical slip surface obtained by SLOPE/W using the limit equilibrium method. Pore-water pressure values for the stability analysis were obtained by coupling the transient seepage analysis of the slope using finite element based software, called SEEP/W. A parametric study conducted on the stability of an investigated slope revealed that the existence of deep cracks and their location in the soil slope are critical for its stability. The following two steps are proposed to predict the rain-induced instability of a residual soil slope with cracks. (a) Step-1: The transient stability analysis of the slope is conducted from the date of the investigation (initial conditions are based on the investigation) to the preferred date (current date), using measured rainfall data. Then, the stability analyses are continued for the next 12 months using the predicted annual rainfall that will be based on the previous five years rainfall data for the area. (b) Step-2: The stability of the slope is calculated in real-time using real-time measured rainfall. In this calculation, rainfall is predicted for the next hour or 24 hours and the stability of the slope is calculated one hour or 24 hours in advance using real time rainfall data. If Step-1 analysis shows critical stability for the forthcoming year, it is recommended that Step-2 be used for more accurate warning against the future failure of the slope. In this research, the results of the application of the Step-1 on an investigated slope (Slope-1) showed that its stability was not approaching a critical value for year 2012 (until 31st December 2012) and therefore, the application of Step-2 was not necessary for the year 2012. A case study (Slope-2) was used to verify the applicability of the complete proposed predictive method. A landslide event at Slope-2 occurred on 31st October 2010. The transient seepage and stability analyses of the slope using data obtained from field tests such as Bore-hole, SPT, ERT and Laboratory tests, were conducted on 12th June 2010 following the Step-1 and found that the slope in critical condition on that current date. It was then showing that the application of the Step-2 could have predicted this failure by giving sufficient warning time.

Mycobacterium abscessus isolated from municipal water : a potential source of human infection

Background Mycobacterium abscessus is a rapidly growing mycobacterium responsible for progressive pulmonary disease, soft tissue and wound infections. The incidence of disease due to M. abscessus has been increasing in Queensland. In a study of Brisbane drinking water, M. abscessus was isolated from ten different locations. The aim of this study was to compare genotypically the M. abscessus isolates obtained from water to those obtained from human clinical specimens. Methods Between 2007 and 2009, eleven isolates confirmed as M. abscessus were recovered from potable water, one strain was isolated from a rainwater tank and another from a swimming pool and two from domestic taps. Seventy-four clinical isolates referred during the same time period were available for comparison using rep-PCR strain typing (Diversilab). Results The drinking water isolates formed two clusters with ≥97% genetic similarity (Water patterns 1 and 2). The tankwater isolate (WP4), one municipal water isolate (WP3) and the pool isolate (WP5) were distinctly different. Patient isolates formed clusters with all of the water isolates except for WP3. Further patient isolates were unrelated to the water isolates. Conclusion The high degree of similarity between strains of M. abscessus from potable water and strains causing infection in humans from the same geographical area, strengthens the possibility that drinking water may be the source of infection in these patients.

Isolation of nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) from household water and shower aerosols in patients with pulmonary disease caused by NTM

It has been postulated that susceptible individuals may acquire infection with nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) from water and aerosol exposure. This study examined household water and shower aerosols of patients with NTM pulmonary disease. The mycobacteria isolated from clinical samples from 20 patients included M. avium (5 patients), M. intracellulare (12 patients), M. abscessus (7 patients), M. gordonae (1 patient), M. lentiflavum (1 patient), M. fortuitum (1 patient), M. peregrinum (1 patient), M. chelonae (1 patient), M. triplex (1 patient), and M. kansasii (1 patient). One-liter water samples and swabs were collected from all taps, and swimming pools or rainwater tanks. Shower aerosols were sampled using Andersen six-stage cascade impactors. For a subgroup of patients, real-time PCR was performed and high-resolution melt profiles were compared to those of ATCC control strains. Pathogenic mycobacteria were isolated from 19 homes. Species identified in the home matched that found in the patient in seven (35%) cases: M. abscessus (3 cases), M. avium (1 case), M. gordonae (1 case), M. lentiflavum (1 case), and M. kansasii (1 case). In an additional patient with M. abscessus infection, this species was isolated from potable water supplying her home. NTM grown from aerosols included M. abscessus (3 homes), M. gordonae (2 homes), M. kansasii (1 home), M. fortuitum complex (4 homes), M. mucogenicum (1 home), and M. wolinskyi (1 home). NTM causing human disease can be isolated from household water and aerosols. The evidence appears strongest for M. avium, M. kansasii, M. lentiflavum, and M. abscessus. Despite a predominance of disease due to M. intracellulare, we found no evidence for acquisition of infection from household water for this species.

Grading : A Workbook of Manual Land Grading Techniques [Revised Edition]

Grading is basic to the work of Landscape Architects concerned with design on the land. Gradients conducive to easy use, rainwater drained away, and land slope contributing to functional and aesthetic use are all essential to the amenity and pleasure of external environments. This workbook has been prepared specifically to support the program of landscape construction for students in Landscape Architecture. It is concerned primarily with the technical design of grading rather than with its aesthetic design. It must be stressed that the two aspects are rarely separate; what is designed should be technically correct and aesthetically pleasing - it needs to look good as well as to function effectively. This revised edition contains amended and new content which has evolved out of student classes and discussion with colleagues. I am pleased to have on record that every delivery of this workbook material has resulted in my own better understanding of grading and the techniques for its calculation and communication.

Emerging water treatment technologies for decentralised systems : an overview of selected systems suited for application in towns and settlements in remote and very remote regions of Australia and vulnerable and lagging rural regions in Sri Lanka

The primary purpose of this paper is to overview a selection of advanced water treatment technology systems that are suited for application in towns and settlements in remote and very remote regions of Australia and vulnerable and lagging rural regions in Sri Lanka. This recognises that sanitation and water treatment are inextricably linked and both are needed to reduce risks to environment and population health from contaminated water sources. For both Australia and Sri Lanka only a small fraction of the settlements in rural and remote regions are connected to water treatment facilities and town water supplies. In Australia’s remote/very remote regions raw water is drawn from underground sources and rainwater capture. Most settlements in rural Sri Lanka rely on rivers, reservoirs, wells, springs or carted water. Furthermore, Sri Lanka has more than 25,000 hand pumped tube wells which saved the communities during recent droughts. Decentralised water supply systems offer the opportunity to provide safe drinking water to these remote/very remote and rural regions where centralised systems are not feasible due to socio-cultural, economic, political, technological reasons. These systems reduce health risks from contaminated water supplies. In remote areas centralized systems fail due to low population density and less affordability. Globally, a new generation of advanced water treatment technologies are positioned to make a major impact on the provision of safe potable water in remote/very remote regions in Australia and rural regions in Sri Lanka. Some of these systems were developed for higher income countries. However, with careful selection and further research they can be tailored to match local socio-economic conditions and technical capacity. As such, they can equally be used to provide decentralised water supply in communities in developed and developing countries such as Australia and Sri Lanka.

Non-linear regression model for spatial variation in precipitation chemistry for South India

Chemical composition of rainwater changes from sea to inland under the influence of several major factors - topographic location of area, its distance from sea, annual rainfall. A model is developed here to quantify the variation in precipitation chemistry under the influence of inland distance and rainfall amount. Various sites in India categorized as 'urban', 'suburban' and 'rural' have been considered for model development. pH, HCO3, NO3 and Mg do not change much from coast to inland while, SO4 and Ca change is subjected to local emissions. Cl and Na originate solely from sea salinity and are the chemistry parameters in the model. Non-linear multiple regressions performed for the various categories revealed that both rainfall amount and precipitation chemistry obeyed a power law reduction with distance from sea. Cl and Na decrease rapidly for the first 100 km distance from sea, then decrease marginally for the next 100 km, and later stabilize. Regression parameters estimated for different cases were found to be consistent (R-2 similar to 0.8). Variation in one of the parameters accounted for urbanization. Model was validated using data points from the southern peninsular region of the country. Estimates are found to be within 99.9% confidence interval. Finally, this relationship between the three parameters - rainfall amount, coastline distance, and concentration (in terms of Cl and Na) was validated with experiments conducted in a small experimental watershed in the south-west India. Chemistry estimated using the model was in good correlation with observed values with a relative error of similar to 5%. Monthly variation in the chemistry is predicted from a downscaling model and then compared with the observed data. Hence, the model developed for rain chemistry is useful in estimating the concentrations at different spatio-temporal scales and is especially applicable for south-west region of India. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the significance of climate and community factors on urban water demand

Ensuring adequate water supply to urban areas is a challenging task due to factors such as rapid urban growth, increasing water demand and climate change. In developing a sustainable water supply system, it is important to identify the dominant water demand factors for any given water supply scheme. This paper applies principal components analysis to identify the factors that dominate residential water demand using the Blue Mountains Water Supply System in Australia as a case study. The results show that the influence of community intervention factors (e.g. use of water efficient appliances and rainwater tanks) on water demand are among the most significant. The result also confirmed that the community intervention programmes and water pricing policy together can play a noticeable role in reducing the overall water demand. On the other hand, the influence of rainfall on water demand is found to be very limited, while temperature shows some degree of correlation with water demand. The results of this study would help water authorities to plan for effective water demand management strategies and to develop a water demand forecasting model with appropriate climatic factors to achieve sustainable water resources management. The methodology developed in this paper can be adapted to other water supply systems to identify the influential factors in water demand modelling and to devise an effective demand management strategy.

Sadeveden laatu Suomessa vuonna 1971

English summary: The quality of rainwater in Finland according the observations made during 1971

Present status of Gottigere Tank : Indicator of Decision maker’s apathy

Gottigere lake with a water spread area of about 14.98 ha is located in the Bellandur Lake catchment of the South Pennar River basin. In recent years, this lake catchment has been subjected to environmental stress mainly due to the rampant unplanned developmental activities in the catchment. The functional ability of the ecosystem is impaired due to structural changes in the ecosystem. This is evident from poor water quality, breeding of disease vectors, contamination of groundwater in the catchment, frequent flooding in the catchment due to topography alteration, decline in groundwater table, erosion in lake bed, etc. The development plans of the region (current as well as the proposed) ignore the integrated planning approaches considering all components of the ecosystem. Serious threats to the sustainability of the region due to lack of holistic approaches in aquatic resources management are land use changes (removal of vegetation cover, etc.), point and non-point sources of pollution impairing water quality, dumping of solid waste (building waste, etc.). Conservation of lake ecosystem is possible only when the physical and chemical integrity of its catchment is maintained. Alteration in the catchment either due to land use changes (leading to paved surface area from vegetation cover), alteration in topography, construction of roads in the immediate vicinity are detrimental to water yield in the catchment and hence, the sustenance of the lake. Open spaces in the form of lakes and parks aid as kidney and lung in an urban ecosystem, which maintain the health of the people residing in the locality. Identification of core buffer zones and conservation of buffer zones (500 to 1000 m from shore) is to be taken up on priority for conservation and sustainable management of Bangalore lakes. Bangalore is located over a ridge delineating four watersheds, viz. Hebbal, Koramangala, Challaghatta and Vrishabhavathi. Lakes and tanks are an integral part of natural drainage and help in retaining water during rainfall, which otherwise get drained off as flash floods. Each lake harvests rainwater from its catchment and surplus flows downstream spilling into the next lake in the chain. The topography of Bangalore has uniquely supported the creation of a large number of lakes. These lakes form chains, being a series of impoundments across streams. This emphasises the interconnectivity among Bangalore lakes, which has to be retained to prevent Bangalore from flooding or from water scarcity. The main source of replenishment of groundwater is the rainfall. The slope of the terrain allows most of the rainwater to flow as run-off. With the steep gradients available in the major valleys of Bangalore, the rainwater will flow out of the city within four to five hours. Only a small fraction of the rainwater infiltrates into the soil. The infiltration of water into the subsoil has declined with more and more buildings and paved road being constructed in the city. Thus the natural drainage of Bangalore is governed by flows from the central ridge to all lower contours and is connected with various tanks and ponds. There are no major rivers flowing in Bangalore and there is an urgent need to sustain these vital ecosystems through proper conservation and management measures. The proposed peripheral ring road connecting Hosur Road (NH 7) and Mysore Road (SH 17) at Gottigere lake falls within the buffer zone of the lake. This would alter the catchment integrity and hence water yield affecting flora, fauna and local people, and ultimately lead to the disappearance of Gottigere lake. Developmental activities in lake catchments, which has altered lake’s ecological integrity is in violation of the Indian Fisheries Act – 1857, the Indian Forest Act – 1927, Wildlife (Protection) Act – 1972, Water (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act – 1974, Water (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act – 1977, Forest (Conservation Act) – 1980, Environmental (Protection) Act – 1986, Wildlife (Protection) Amendment Act – 1991 and National Conservation Strategy and Policy Statement on Environment and Development – 1992. Considering 65% decline of waterbodies in Bangalore (during last three decades), decision makers should immediately take preventive measures to ensure that lake ecosystems are not affected. This report discusses the impacts due to the proposed infrastructure developmental activities in the vicinity of Gottigere tank.

Controls on intense silicate weathering in a tropical river, southwestern India

The Silicate Weathering Rate (SWR) and associated Carbon dioxide Consumption Rate (CCR) in tropical silicate terrain is assessed through a study of the major ion chemistry in a small west flowing river of Peninsular India, the Nethravati River. The specific features of the river basin are high mean annual rainfall and temperature, high runoff and a Precambrian basement composed of granitic-gneiss, charnockite and minor metasediments. The water samples (n = 56) were collected from three locations along the Nethravati River and from two of its tributaries over a period of twelve months. Chemical Weathering Rate (CWR) for the entire watershed is calculated by applying rainwater correction using river chloride as a tracer. Chemical Weathering Rate in the Nethravati watershed is estimated to 44 t.km(-2).y(-1) encompassing a SWR of 42 t.km(-2).y(-1) and a maximum carbonate contribution of 2 t.km(-2).y(-1). This SWR is among the highest reported for granito-gneissic terrains. The assessed CCR is 2.9 . 10(5) mol.km(-2).y(-1). The weathering index (Re). calculated from molecular ratios of dissolved cations and silica in the river, suggests an intense silicate weathering leading to kaolinite-gibbsite precipitation in the weathering covers. The intense SWR and CCR could be due to the combination of high runoff and temperature along with the thickness and nature of the weathering cover. The comparison of silicate weathering fluxes with other watersheds reveals that under similar morpho-climatic settings basalt weathering would be 2.5 times higher than the granite-gneissic rocks. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Short- and long-term temporal variations in salinity and the oxygen, carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions of the Hooghly Estuary water, India

The Hooghly River estuary provides a unique experimental site to understand the effect of monsoonal river discharge on freshwater and seawater mixing. Water samples collected bi-weekly for a duration of 17 months were analyzed for salinity, delta O-18,delta C-13(DIC), as well as delta D to investigate the differential mixing of freshwater and seawater. The differences in salinity and delta O-18 of samples collected during low and high tides on the same day are strongly correlated suggesting a well mixed water column at our sampling site. Low salinity and depleted delta O-18 during monsoon is consistent with increased river discharge as well as high rainfall. We identified different slopes in a delta O-18 versus salinity plot for the estuary water samples collected during monsoon and non-monsoon seasons. This is driven by composition of the freshwater source which is dominated by rainwater during monsoon and rivers during non-monsoon months. Selected delta D analyses of samples indicate that groundwater contributes significantly to the Hooghly Estuary during low rainfall times of the year. delta C-13(DIC) measured in the water recorded low values towards the end of monsoon indicating low productivity (i.e. increased organic respiration) while progressively increasing delta C-13(DIC) values from October till January as well as during some of the pre-monsoon months can be explained by increasing productivity. Very low delta C-13(DIC) (similar to-20%0) suggests involvement of carbon derived from anaerobic oxidation of organics and/or methane with potential contribution from increased anthropogenic water supply. An estimate of seawater incursion into the Hooghly Estuary at different times of the year is obtained by using salinity data in a two-component mixing model. Presence of seawater was found maximum (31-37%) during February till July and lowest (less than or equal to 6%) from September till November. We notice a temporal offset between Ganges River discharge farther upstream at Farakka and salinity variation at the Hooghly Estuary. We believe that this time lag is a result of the physical distance between Farakka and Kakdweep (our sampling location) and put constraints on the travel time of river water during early monsoon. (c) 2012 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Seasonal variability of rainfall recorded in growth bands of the Giant African Land Snail Lissachatina fulica (Bowdich) from India

Seasonal rainfall patterns in Bangalore, India, have been reconstructed using stable isotopic ratios in the growth bands of Giant African Land Snail shells. The present study was conducted at Bangalore, India which receives rain during the summer months. The oxygen isotopic record in the rainwater samples collected during different months covering the period of the summer monsoon of the year 2008 is compared with the isotopic ratio in the gastropod growth bands deposited simultaneously. The chronology of the shell growth band is independently established assuming the growth rate observed in a chamber experiment maintaining similar relative humidity and temperature conditions. A consistent pattern observed in the isotopic ratio in the gastropod growth bands and rainwater is demonstrated and provides a novel approach for precipitation reconstruction at seasonal and weekly time scales. This approach of using isotopic ratios in the gastropod growth bands for rainfall can serve as a substitute for filling gaps in rainfall data and for cases where no rain records are available. In addition, they can be used to determine the frequencies and magnitudes of dry spells from the past records. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Contribution of forest fire ash and plant litter decay on stream dissolved composition in a sub-humid tropical watershed (Mule Hole, Southern India)

The current understanding of wildfire effects on water chemistry is limited by the quantification of the elemental dissolution rates from ash and element release rate from the plant litter, as well as quantification of the specific ash contribution to stream water chemistry. The main objective of the study was to provide such knowledge through combination of experimental modelling, field data and end-member mixing analysis (EMMA) of wildfire impact on a watershed scale. The study concerns watershed effects of fire in the Indian subcontinent, a region that is typically not well represented in the fire science literature. In plant litter ash, major elements are either hosted in readily-soluble phases (K, Mg) such as salts, carbonates and oxides or in less-soluble carrier-phases (Si, Ca) such as amorphous silica, quartz and calcite. Accordingly, elemental release rates, inferred from ash leaching experiments in batch reactor, indicated that the element release into solution followed the order K > Mg > Na > Si > Ca. Experiments on plant litter leaching in mixed-flow reactor indicated two dissolution regimes: rapid, over the week and slower over the month. The mean dissolution rates at steady-state (R-ss) indicated that the release of major elements from plant litter followed the order Ca > Si > Cl > Mg > K > Na. R-ss for Si and Ca for tree leaves and herbaceous species are similar to those reported for boreal and European tree species and are higher than that from the dissolution of soil clay minerals. This identifies tropical plant litters as important source of Si and Ca for tropical surface waters. In the wildfire-impacted year 2004, the EMMA indicated that the streamflow composition (Ca, K, Mg, Na, Si, Cl) was controlled by four main sources: rainwater, throughfall, ash leaching and soil solution. The influence of the ash end-member was maximal early in the rainy season (the two first storm events) and decreased later in the rainy season, when the stream was dominated by the throughfall end-member. The contribution of plant litter decay to the streamwater composition for a year not impacted by wildfire is significant with estimated solute fluxes originating from this decay greatly exceed, for most major elements, the annual elemental dissolved fluxes at the Mule Hole watershed outlet. This highlighted the importance of solute retention and vegetation back uptake processes within the soil profile. Overall, the fire increased the mobility and export of major elements from the soils to the stream. It also shifted the vegetation-related contribution to the elemental fluxes at the watershed outlet from long-term (seasonal) to short-term (daily to monthly). (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An evaluation of Northern Florida Bay as a nursery area for red drum, Sciaenops ocellatus, and other juvenile and small resident fishes.

Red drum is one ofthe most popular species sought by anglers in Florida Bay, yet juveniles are rarely encountered. We evaluated Florida Bay as a nursery area for red drum by sampling for recently-settled late larvae in basin areas within the bay with an epi-benthic sled at six stations in November 2000, and at seven stations during December 2000 through February 2001. In November 2000 we surveyed potential sampling sites in quiet backwaters adjacent to mangroves for juvenile red drum. A total of 202 sites were sampled mainly in northern Florida Bay and adjacent waters with a cast net. We collected only one recently-settled red drum larvae and no juveniles. Obviously the sites that we sampled in Florida Bay and adjacent waters are not nursery habitat for this valuable species. Sled collections were dominated by bay anchovy, Anchoa mitchilli, but densities were biased by one collection. Five small resident species were among the dominant species: rainwater killifish, Lucania parva; dusky pipefish, Syngnathus floridae; dwarf seahorse, Hippocampus zosterae; and clown goby, Microgobius gulosus. Three species that spawn outside Florida Bay in the GulfofMexico were common: pinfish, Lagodon rhomboides; pigfish, Orthopristis chrysoptera; and silver perch, Bairdiella chrysoura. Twenty-seven species were collected with the cast net. Hardhead silversides (Atherinomorus stipes), bay anchovy, tidewater mojarra (Eucinostomus harengulus), silver jenny (Eucinostomus gula), and goldspotted killifish (Floridichthys carpio) were the most common in cast net collections. Although only one red drum was collected, we were able to: (1) identify mesohaline waters from our cast net sites to test our preliminary assessment that mesohaline habitat might be limited in Florida Bay, (2) document the distribution and abundance of fishes collected by cast net that should enhance our understanding of ichthyofauna in the Northern Subdivision ofFlorida Bay and adjacent waters, and (3) from epibenthic sled collections, describe the habitats, abundance and distribution of recently settled larvae/small juveniles/small resident fishes during late fall and winter. This information should be useful to managers and future research. (PDF contains 34 pages)

Earthquakes of the Nepal Himalaya : towards a physical model of the seismic cycle

Home to hundreds of millions of souls and land of excessiveness, the Himalaya is also the locus of a unique seismicity whose scope and peculiarities still remain to this day somewhat mysterious. Having claimed the lives of kings, or turned ancient timeworn cities into heaps of rubbles and ruins, earthquakes eerily inhabit Nepalese folk tales with the fatalistic message that nothing lasts forever. From a scientific point of view as much as from a human perspective, solving the mysteries of Himalayan seismicity thus represents a challenge of prime importance. Documenting geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya with various GPS and leveling data, we show that unlike other subduction zones that exhibit a heterogeneous and patchy coupling pattern along strike, the last hundred kilometers of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, or MHT, appear to be uniformly locked, devoid of any of the “creeping barriers” that traditionally ward off the propagation of large events. The approximately 20 mm/yr of reckoned convergence across the Himalaya matching previously established estimates of the secular deformation at the front of the arc, the slip accumulated at depth has to somehow elastically propagate all the way to the surface at some point. And yet, neither large events from the past nor currently recorded microseismicity nearly compensate for the massive moment deficit that quietly builds up under the giant mountains. Along with this large unbalanced moment deficit, the uncommonly homogeneous coupling pattern on the MHT raises the question of whether or not the locked portion of the MHT can rupture all at once in a giant earthquake. Univocally answering this question appears contingent on the still elusive estimate of the magnitude of the largest possible earthquake in the Himalaya, and requires tight constraints on local fault properties. What makes the Himalaya enigmatic also makes it the potential source of an incredible wealth of information, and we exploit some of the oddities of Himalayan seismicity in an effort to improve the understanding of earthquake physics and cipher out the properties of the MHT. Thanks to the Himalaya, the Indo-Gangetic plain is deluged each year under a tremendous amount of water during the annual summer monsoon that collects and bears down on the Indian plate enough to pull it away from the Eurasian plate slightly, temporarily relieving a small portion of the stress mounting on the MHT. As the rainwater evaporates in the dry winter season, the plate rebounds and tension is increased back on the fault. Interestingly, the mild waggle of stress induced by the monsoon rains is about the same size as that from solid-Earth tides which gently tug at the planets solid layers, but whereas changes in earthquake frequency correspond with the annually occurring monsoon, there is no such correlation with Earth tides, which oscillate back-and-forth twice a day. We therefore investigate the general response of the creeping and seismogenic parts of MHT to periodic stresses in order to link these observations to physical parameters. First, the response of the creeping part of the MHT is analyzed with a simple spring-and-slider system bearing rate-strengthening rheology, and we show that at the transition with the locked zone, where the friction becomes near velocity neutral, the response of the slip rate may be amplified at some periods, which values are analytically related to the physical parameters of the problem. Such predictions therefore hold the potential of constraining fault properties on the MHT, but still await observational counterparts to be applied, as nothing indicates that the variations of seismicity rate on the locked part of the MHT are the direct expressions of variations of the slip rate on its creeping part, and no variations of the slip rate have been singled out from the GPS measurements to this day. When shifting to the locked seismogenic part of the MHT, spring-and-slider models with rate-weakening rheology are insufficient to explain the contrasted responses of the seismicity to the periodic loads that tides and monsoon both place on the MHT. Instead, we resort to numerical simulations using the Boundary Integral CYCLes of Earthquakes algorithm and examine the response of a 2D finite fault embedded with a rate-weakening patch to harmonic stress perturbations of various periods. We show that such simulations are able to reproduce results consistent with a gradual amplification of sensitivity as the perturbing period get larger, up to a critical period corresponding to the characteristic time of evolution of the seismicity in response to a step-like perturbation of stress. This increase of sensitivity was not reproduced by simple 1D-spring-slider systems, probably because of the complexity of the nucleation process, reproduced only by 2D-fault models. When the nucleation zone is close to its critical unstable size, its growth becomes highly sensitive to any external perturbations and the timings of produced events may therefore find themselves highly affected. A fully analytical framework has yet to be developed and further work is needed to fully describe the behavior of the fault in terms of physical parameters, which will likely provide the keys to deduce constitutive properties of the MHT from seismological observations.