941 resultados para Quasi-Natural Experiment


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We present a model for the self-organized formation of place cells, head-direction cells, and spatial-view cells in the hippocampal formation based on unsupervised learning on quasi-natural visual stimuli. The model comprises a hierarchy of Slow Feature Analysis (SFA) nodes, which were recently shown to reproduce many properties of complex cells in the early visual system []. The system extracts a distributed grid-like representation of position and orientation, which is transcoded into a localized place-field, head-direction, or view representation, by sparse coding. The type of cells that develops depends solely on the relevant input statistics, i.e., the movement pattern of the simulated animal. The numerical simulations are complemented by a mathematical analysis that allows us to accurately predict the output of the top SFA layer.

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Temporal trends in total ozone for the St. Lawrence estuary were estimated from ground-based measurements at the NOAA/CMDL station in Caribou, Maine. Linear regression analysis showed that from 1979 to 1999 total ozone has decreased by about 3.3% per decade on an annual basis and ≤6.2% per decade on a monthly basis relative to unperturbed (pre-CFC) levels. The influence of increased ultraviolet-B (280–320 nm) radiation associated with ozone depletion on water column photochemical processes was evaluated by modeling the photobleaching of chromophoric dissolved organic material (CDOM). Linear regression analysis showed small (<0.5% per decade), but statistically significant upward trends in maximum noontime photobleaching rates. Most notably, positive trends in relative rates for May, June, and July, when maximum absolute rates are expected, were predicted. A global model based on TOMS ozone data revealed increases in photobleaching of ≤3% per decade at high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. Radiation amplification factors for increases in photochemically weighted UV (280–400 nm) in response to ozone depletion were estimated at 0.1 and 0.08 for photobleaching of CDOM absorbance at 300 and 350 nm, respectively. Application of the laboratory-based model to conditions that more closely resembled those in situ were variable with both overestimation and underestimation of measured rates. The differences between modeled rates and observed rates under quasi-natural conditions were as large or larger than the predicted increases due to ozone depletion. These comparisons suggest that biological activity and mixing play an important, but as yet ill-defined, role in modifying photochemical processes.

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What is a benchmark bond? We provide a formal theoretical treatment of this concept that relates endogenously determined benchmark status to the location of price discovery and we derive its implications. We describe a rich but little used econometric technique for identifying the benchmark that is congruent with our theoretical framework. We apply this in the context of the US corporate bond market and to the natural experiment that occurred when benchmark status was contested in the European sovereign bond markets after the introduction of the Euro. We show that France provides the benchmark at most maturities in the Euro-denominated sovereign bond market and that IBM provides the benchmark in the 10 year maturity in the US corporate bond market.

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Despite the decline in coronary heart disease in many European countries, the disease remains an enormous public health problem. Although we know a great deal about environmental risk factors for coronary heart disease, a heritable component was recognized a long time ago. The earliest and best known examples of how our genetic constitution may determine cardiovascular risk relate to lipoprotein(a), familial hypercholesterolaemia and apolipoprotein E. In the past 20 years a fair number of polymorphisms assessed singly have shown strong associations with the disease but most are subject to poor repeatability. Twins constitute a compelling natural experiment to establish the genetic contribution to coronary heart disease and its risk factors. GenomEUtwin, a recently funded Framework 5 Programme of the European Community, affords the opportunity of comparing the heritability of risk factors in different European Twin Registries. As an illustration we present the heritabilities of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, based on data from over 4000 twin pairs from six different European countries and Australia. Heritabilities for systolic blood pressure are between 52 and 66% and for diastolic blood pressure between 44 and 66%. There is no evidence of sex differences in heritability estimates and very little to no evidence for a significant contribution of shared family environment. A non-twin based prospective case/cohort study of coronary heart disease and stroke (MORGAM) will allow hypotheses relating to cardiovascular disease, generated in the twin cohorts, to be tested prospectively in adult populations. Twin studies have also contributed to our understanding of the life course hypothesis, and GenomEUtwin has the potential to add to this.

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We assess informal institutions of Protestants and Catholics by investigating their economic resilience in a natural experiment. The First World War constitutes an exogenous shock to living standards since the duration and intensity of the war exceeded all expectations. We assess the ability of Protestant and Catholic communities to cope with increasing food prices and wartime black markets. Literature based on Weber (1904, 1905) suggests that Protestants must be more resilient than their Catholic peers. Using individual height data on some 2,800 Germans to assess levels of malnutrition during the war, we find that living standards for both Protestants and Catholics declined; however, the decrease of Catholics’ height was disproportionately large. Our empirical analysis finds a large statistically significant difference between Protestants and Catholics for the 1915–19 birth cohort, and we argue that this height gap cannot be attributed to socioeconomic background and fertility alone.

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We assess informal institutions of Protestants and Catholics by investigating their economic
resilience in a natural experiment. The First World War constitutes an exogenous shock to living standards since the duration and intensity of the war exceeded all expectations. We assess the ability of Protestant and Catholic communities to cope with increasing food prices and wartime black markets. Literature based on Weber (1904, 1905) suggests that Protestants must be more resilient than their Catholic peers. Using individual height data on some 2,800 Germans to assess levels of malnutrition during the war, we find that living standards for both Protestants and Catholics declined; however, the decrease of Catholics’ height was disproportionately large. Our empirical analysis finds a large statistically significant difference between Protestants and Catholics for the 1914-19 birth cohort, and we argue that this height gap cannot be attributed to socioeconomic background and fertility alone.

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The share of ethnic groups is one of the most important features of African politics. It affects civil wars, representation in government positions, distributive and allocative policies. In this paper we use the partition of ethnic groups as a natural experiment in order to estimate the effect of the share of these ethnic groups on development. We show that larger groups have an advantage in terms of development and that the partition in itself does not matter for development. This result is explained by the fact that the partition matters only when the resulting groups are relatively small, since their lack of political representation may weaken support for institutions, may bias policies and the provision of ethnic/regional public goods.

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Contexte : Les interventions sur l'environnement bâti reliées au transport peuvent contribuer à l'augmentation de la pratique de l'activité physique. En tant qu’intervention, les programmes de vélos en libre-service (PVLS) peuvent contribuer à l’utilisation du vélo. BIXI© (nom qui fusionne les mots BIcyclette et taXI) est un programme de vélos en libre-service implanté à Montréal, au Canada, en mai 2009. Le programme BIXI© met à la disposition des gens 5050 vélos à 405 bornes d’ancrage. Objectif : L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'étudier l'impact d'un programme de vélos en libre-service sur l’utilisation du vélo. Les objectifs spécifiques de la thèse sont de : 1) Estimer la prévalence populationnelle et identifier des variables environnementales, sociodémographiques et comportementales associées à l’utilisation des vélos en libre-service. 2) Estimer l’impact populationnel de l’implantation des vélos en libre-service sur l’utilisation du vélo et les contributions respectives de l’utilisation du vélo pour des fins utilitaires et récréatives à l’utilisation totale du vélo. 3) Estimer l’impact local de l’implantation des vélos en libre-service sur l’utilisation du vélo. Méthodes : Un devis populationnel transversal avec mesures répétées. Des enquêtes ont été réalisées au moment du lancement du programme de vélos en libre-service (4 mai au 10 juin, 2009), à la fin de la première année d’implantation (8 octobre au 12 décembre, 2009), et à la fin de la deuxième année d’implantation (8 novembre au 12 décembre, 2010). Les échantillons se composaient de 2001 (âge moyen = 49,4 années, 56,7 % de femmes), 2502 (âge moyen = 47,8 ans, 61,8 % de femmes) et 2509 (âge moyen = 48,9 années, 59,0 % de femmes) adultes à chaque période de mesure respectivement. Résultats : Globalement, les résultats démontrent le potentiel des PVLS pour augmenter l’utilisation du vélo. Les résultats suggèrent que près de 128 744 habitants ou 8,1 % de la population adulte ont utilisé les vélos BIXI© au moins une fois dans la première saison. Après deux ans d’implantation, ceux qui sont exposés à BIXI© dans leur milieu résidentiel avaient une probabilité significativement plus élevée d’utiliser le vélo par rapport à ceux non exposés. Par contre, il n'y avait aucun impact local de l’implantation du programme BIXI© sur l’utilisation du vélo. Conclusions : L’implantation d'un PVLS à Montréal a augmenté la probabilité d’utiliser le vélo chez les individus habitant près d'une borne d'ancrage. Mots clés : programme de vélos en libre-service, expérience naturelle, santé des populations.

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En Colombia, como en muchos países de América Latina, en los años 80 y 90 se hicieron cambios importantes en los regímenes de pensiones. Este trabajo hace un análisis de uno de esos cambios en Colombia. El cambio consistió en aumentar el tiempo de cotización necesario para reclamar los beneficios pensionales y la inclusión del salario dentro de la fórmula del monto de pensiones. Para este propósito se estudia el impacto sobre la oferta laboral de un cambio exógeno en estas condiciones usando un diseño de regresión discontinua. Se encuentra un efecto positivo sobre las horas promedio trabajadas en la semana.

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This paper studies oligopolistic competition in education markets when schools can be private and public and when the quality of education depends on ìpeer groupî e§ects. In the Örst stage of our game schools set their quality and in the second stage they Öx their tuition fees. We examine how the (subgame perfect Nash) equilibrium allocation (qualities, tuition fees and welfare) is a§ected by the presence of public schools and by their relative position in the quality range. When there are no peer group e§ects, e¢ ciency is achieved when (at least) all but one school are public. In particular in the two school case, the impact of a public school is spectacular as we go from a setting of extreme di§erentiation to an e¢ cient allocation. However, in the three school case, a single public school will lower welfare compared to the private equilibrium. We then introduce a peer group e§ect which, for any given school is determined by its student with the highest ability. These PGE do have a signiÖcant impact on the results. The mixed equilibrium is now never e¢ cient. However, welfare continues to be improved if all but one school are public. Overall, the presence of PGE reduces the e§ectiveness of public schools as regulatory tool in an otherwise private education sector.

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We investigate the effect of education Conditional Cash Transfer programs (CCTs) on teenage pregnancy. Our main concern is with how the size and sign of the effect may depend on the design of the program. Using a simple model we show that an education CCT that conditions renewal on school performance reduces teenage pregnancy; the program can increase teenage pregnancy if it does not condition on school performance. Then, using an original data base, we estimate the causal impact on teenage pregnancy of two education CCTs implemented in Bogot´a (Subsidio Educativo, SE, and Familias en Acci´on, FA); both programs differ particularly on whether school success is a condition for renewal or not. We show that SE has negative average effect on teenage pregnancy while FA has a null average effect. We also find that SE has either null or no effect for adolescents in all age and grade groups while FA has positive, null or negative effects for adolescents in different age and grade groups. Since SE conditions renewal on school success and FA does not, we can argue that the empirical results are consistent with the predictions of our model and that conditioning renewal of the subsidy on school success crucially determines the effect of the subsidy on teenage pregnancy

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We analyze the effect of a parametric reform of the fully-funded pension regime in Colombia on the intensive margin of the labor supply. We take advantage of a threshold defined by law in order to identify the causal effect using a regression discontinuity design. We find that a pension system that increases retirement age and the minimum weeks during which workers must contribute to claim pension benefits causes an increase of around 2 hours on the number of weekly worked hours; this corresponds to 4% of the average number of weekly worked hours or around 14% of a standard deviation of weekly worked hours. The effect is robust to different specifications, polynomial orders and sample sizes.

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Financial integration has been pursued aggressively across the globe in the last fifty years; however, there is no conclusive evidence on the diversification gains (or losses) of such efforts. These gains (or losses) are related to the degree of comovements and synchronization among increasingly integrated global markets. We quantify the degree of comovements within the integrated Latin American market (MILA). We use dynamic correlation models to quantify comovements across securities as well as a direct integration measure. Our results show an increase in comovements when we look at the country indexes, however, the increase in the trend of correlation is previous to the institutional efforts to establish an integrated market in the region. On the other hand, when we look at sector indexes and an integration measure, we find a decreased in comovements among a representative sample of securities form the integrated market.

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Determining the time of emergence of climates altered from their natural state by anthropogenic influences can help inform the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change. Previous studies have examined the time of emergence of climate averages. However, at the global scale, the emergence of changes in extreme events, which have the greatest societal impacts, has not been investigated before. Based on state-of-the-art climate models, we show that temperature extremes generally emerge slightly later from their quasi-natural climate state than seasonal means, due to greater variability in extremes. Nevertheless, according to model evidence, both hot and cold extremes have already emerged across many areas. Remarkably, even precipitation extremes that have very large variability are projected to emerge in the coming decades in Northern Hemisphere winters associated with a wettening trend. Based on our findings we expect local temperature and precipitation extremes to already differ significantly from their previous quasi-natural state at many locations or to do so in the near future. Our findings have implications for climate impacts and detection and attribution studies assessing observed changes in regional climate extremes by showing whether they will likely find a fingerprint of anthropogenic climate change.