The NINJA-2 project: detecting and characterizing gravitational waveforms modelled using numerical binary black hole simulations

The Numerical INJection Analysis (NINJA) project is a collaborative effort between members of the numerical relativity and gravitational-wave (GW) astrophysics communities. The purpose of NINJA is to study the ability to detect GWs emitted from merging binary black holes (BBH) and recover their parameters with next-generation GW observatories. We report here on the results of the second NINJA project, NINJA-2, which employs 60 complete BBH hybrid waveforms consisting of a numerical portion modelling the late inspiral, merger, and ringdown stitched to a post-Newtonian portion modelling the early inspiral. In a 'blind injection challenge' similar to that conducted in recent Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory (LIGO) and Virgo science runs, we added seven hybrid waveforms to two months of data recoloured to predictions of Advanced LIGO (aLIGO) and Advanced Virgo (AdV) sensitivity curves during their first observing runs. The resulting data was analysed by GW detection algorithms and 6 of the waveforms were recovered with false alarm rates smaller than 1 in a thousand years. Parameter-estimation algorithms were run on each of these waveforms to explore the ability to constrain the masses, component angular momenta and sky position of these waveforms. We find that the strong degeneracy between the mass ratio and the BHs' angular momenta will make it difficult to precisely estimate these parameters with aLIGO and AdV. We also perform a large-scale Monte Carlo study to assess the ability to recover each of the 60 hybrid waveforms with early aLIGO and AdV sensitivity curves. Our results predict that early aLIGO and AdV will have a volume-weighted average sensitive distance of 300 Mpc (1 Gpc) for 10M circle dot + 10M circle dot (50M circle dot + 50M circle dot) BBH coalescences. We demonstrate that neglecting the component angular momenta in the waveform models used in matched-filtering will result in a reduction in sensitivity for systems with large component angular momenta. This reduction is estimated to be up to similar to 15% for 50M circle dot + 50M circle dot BBH coalescences with almost maximal angular momenta aligned with the orbit when using early aLIGO and AdV sensitivity curves.

Soil carbon balance in a tropical grassland: Estimation of soil respiration and its partitioning using a semi-empirical model

In savannah and tropical grasslands, which account for 60% of grasslands worldwide, a large share of ecosystem carbon is located below ground due to high root:shoot ratios. Temporal variations in soil CO2 efflux (R-S) were investigated in a grassland of coastal Congo over two years. The objectives were (1) to identify the main factors controlling seasonal variations in R-S and (2) to develop a semi-empirical model describing R-S and including a heterotrophic component (R-H) and an autotrophic component (R-A). Plant above-ground activity was found to exert strong control over soil respiration since 71% of seasonal R-S variability was explained by the quantity of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed (APAR) by the grass canopy. We tested an additive model including a parameter enabling R-S partitioning into R-A and R-H. Assumptions underlying this model were that R-A mainly depended on the amount of photosynthates allocated below ground and that microbial and root activity was mostly controlled by soil temperature and soil moisture. The model provided a reasonably good prediction of seasonal variations in R-S (R-2 = 0.85) which varied between 5.4 mu mol m(-2) s(-1) in the wet season and 0.9 mu mol m(-2) s(-1) at the end of the dry season. The model was subsequently used to obtain annual estimates of R-S, R-A and R-H. In accordance with results reported for other tropical grasslands, we estimated that R-H accounted for 44% of R-S, which represented a flux similar to the amount of carbon brought annually to the soil from below-ground litter production. Overall, this study opens up prospects for simulating the carbon budget of tropical grasslands on a large scale using remotely sensed data. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optic flow estimation in fluid images II

[EN] In this report we study a number of fluid optic flow sequences in the context of the FLUID Specific Targeted Research Project - Contract No 513633 founded by the EEC. The main goal of this report is to analyse the behaviour of classical computer vision optic flow techniques when we deal with fluid sequences. We use the optic flow sequences provided by other partners of the FLUID project.

Development of the optimal estimation method for inversion of stratospheric emission spectra and validation of HNO3 profiles

This doctoral thesis focuses on ground-based measurements of stratospheric nitric acid (HNO3)concentrations obtained by means of the Ground-Based Millimeter-wave Spectrometer (GBMS). Pressure broadened HNO3 emission spectra are analyzed using a new inversion algorithm developed as part of this thesis work and the retrieved vertical profiles are extensively compared to satellite-based data. This comparison effort I carried out has a key role in establishing a long-term (1991-2010), global data record of stratospheric HNO3, with an expected impact on studies concerning ozone decline and recovery. The first part of this work is focused on the development of an ad hoc version of the Optimal Estimation Method (Rodgers, 2000) in order to retrieve HNO3 spectra observed by means of GBMS. I also performed a comparison between HNO3 vertical profiles retrieved with the OEM and those obtained with the old iterative Matrix Inversion method. Results show no significant differences in retrieved profiles and error estimates, with the OEM providing however additional information needed to better characterize the retrievals. A final section of this first part of the work is dedicated to a brief review on the application of the OEM to other trace gases observed by GBMS, namely O3 and N2O. The second part of this study deals with the validation of HNO3 profiles obtained with the new inversion method. The first step has been the validation of GBMS measurements of tropospheric opacity, which is a necessary tool in the calibration of any GBMS spectra. This was achieved by means of comparisons among correlative measurements of water vapor column content (or Precipitable Water Vapor, PWV) since, in the spectral region observed by GBMS, the tropospheric opacity is almost entirely due to water vapor absorption. In particular, I compared GBMS PWV measurements collected during the primary field campaign of the ECOWAR project (Bhawar et al., 2008) with simultaneous PWV observations obtained with Vaisala RS92k radiosondes, a Raman lidar, and an IR Fourier transform spectrometer. I found that GBMS PWV measurements are in good agreement with the other three data sets exhibiting a mean difference between observations of ~9%. After this initial validation, GBMS HNO3 retrievals have been compared to two sets of satellite data produced by the two NASA/JPL Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) experiments (aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) from 1991 to 1999, and on the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura mission from 2004 to date). This part of my thesis is inserted in GOZCARDS (Global Ozone Chemistry and Related Trace gas Data Records for the Stratosphere), a multi-year project, aimed at developing a long-term data record of stratospheric constituents relevant to the issues of ozone decline and expected recovery. This data record will be based mainly on satellite-derived measurements but ground-based observations will be pivotal for assessing offsets between satellite data sets. Since the GBMS has been operated for more than 15 years, its nitric acid data record offers a unique opportunity for cross-calibrating HNO3 measurements from the two MLS experiments. I compare GBMS HNO3 measurements obtained from the Italian Alpine station of Testa Grigia (45.9° N, 7.7° E, elev. 3500 m), during the period February 2004 - March 2007, and from Thule Air Base, Greenland (76.5°N 68.8°W), during polar winter 2008/09, and Aura MLS observations. A similar intercomparison is made between UARS MLS HNO3 measurements with those carried out from the GBMS at South Pole, Antarctica (90°S), during the most part of 1993 and 1995. I assess systematic differences between GBMS and both UARS and Aura HNO3 data sets at seven potential temperature levels. Results show that, except for measurements carried out at Thule, ground based and satellite data sets are consistent within the errors, at all potential temperature levels.

The Estimation of the Ecological Condition of the City Environment by Methods of Phytoindication (as Applied to the Vasileostrovsky District of St. Petersburg)

The project aimed to use results of contamination of city vegetation with heavy metals and sulphur compounds as the basis for analysing the integral response of trees and shrubs to contamination, through a complex method of phytoindication. The results were used to draw up recommendations on pollution reduction in the city and to develop the method of phytoindication as a means of monitoring environmental pollution in St. Petersburg and other large cities. Field investigations were carried out in August 1996, and 66 descriptions of green areas were made in order to estimate the functional state of plants in the Vasileostrovsky district. Investigations of the spectrum reflecting properties of plants showed considerable variation of albedo meanings of leaves under the influence of various internal and external factors. The results indicated that lime trees most closely reflect the condition of the environment. Practically all the green areas studied were in poor condition, the only exceptions being areas of ash trees, which are more resistant to environmental pollution, and one lime-tree alley in a comparatively unpolluted street. The study identified those types of trees which are more or less resistant to complex environmental pollution and Ms. Terekhina recommends that the species in the present green areas be changed to include a higher number of the more resistant species. The turbidimetric analysis of tree barks for sulphates gave an indication of the level and spatial distribution of each pollutant, and the results also confirmed other findings that electric conductivity is a significant feature in determining the extent of sulphate pollution. In testing for various metals, the lime tree showed the highest contents for all elements except magnesium, copper, zinc, cadmium and strontium, again confirming the species' vulnerability to pollution. Medium rates of concentration in the city and environs showed that city plants concentrate 3 times as many different elements and 10 times more chromium, copper and lead than do those in the suburbs. The second stage of the study was based on the concept of phytoindication, which presupposes that changes in the relation of chemical elements in regional biological circulation under the influence of technogenesis provide a criterion for predicting displacements in people's health. There are certain basic factors in this concept. The first is that all living beings are related ecologically as well as by their evolutionary origin, and that the lower an organism is on the evolutionary scale, the less adaptational reserve it has. The second is that smaller concentrations of chemical elements are needed for toxicological influence on plants than on people and so the former's reactions to geochemical factors are easier to characterise. Visual indicational features of urban plants are well defined and can form the basis of a complex "environment - public health" analysis. Specific plant reactions reflecting atmospheric pollution and other components of urbogeosystems make it possible to determine indication criteria for predicting possible disturbances in the general state of health of the population. Thirdly the results of phytoindication investigations must be taken together with information about public health in the area. It only proved possibly to analyse general indexes of public health based on statistical data from the late 1980s and early 1990s as the data of later years were greatly influenced by social factors. These data show that the rates of illness in St. Petersburg (especially for children) are higher than in Russia as a whole, for most classes of diseases, indicating that the population there is more sensitive to the ecological state of the urban environment. The Vasileostrovsky district had the second highest sick rate for adullts, while the rate of infant mortality in the first year of life was highest there. Ms. Terekhina recommends further studies to more precisely assess the effectiveness of the methods she tested, but has drawn up a proposed map of environmental hazard for the population, taking into account prevailing wind directions.

Pharmacovigilance of drug allergy and hypersensitivity using the ENDA-DAHD database and the GALEN platform. The Galenda project

Nonallergic hypersensitivity and allergic reactions are part of the many different types of adverse drug reactions (ADRs). Databases exist for the collection of ADRs. Spontaneous reporting makes up the core data-generating system of pharmacovigilance, but there is a large under-estimation of allergy/hypersensitivity drug reactions. A specific database is therefore required for drug allergy and hypersensitivity using standard operating procedures (SOPs), as the diagnosis of drug allergy/hypersensitivity is difficult and current pharmacovigilance algorithms are insufficient. Although difficult, the diagnosis of drug allergy/hypersensitivity has been standardized by the European Network for Drug Allergy (ENDA) under the aegis of the European Academy of Allergology and Clinical Immunology and SOPs have been published. Based on ENDA and Global Allergy and Asthma European Network (GA(2)LEN, EU Framework Programme 6) SOPs, a Drug Allergy and Hypersensitivity Database (DAHD((R))) has been established under FileMaker((R)) Pro 9. It is already available online in many different languages and can be accessed using a personal login. GA(2)LEN is a European network of 27 partners (16 countries) and 59 collaborating centres (26 countries), which can coordinate and implement the DAHD across Europe. The GA(2)LEN-ENDA-DAHD platform interacting with a pharmacovigilance network appears to be of great interest for the reporting of allergy/hypersensitivity ADRs in conjunction with other pharmacovigilance instruments.

Transient state estimation in paleoclimatology using data assimilation

Data assimilation methods used for transient atmospheric state estimations in paleoclimatology such as covariance-based approaches, analogue techniques and nudging are briefly introduced. With applications differing widely, a plurality of approaches appears to be the logical way forward.

Estimation and calibration of the water isotope differential diffusion length in ice core records

Palaeoclimatic information can be retrieved from the diffusion of the stable water isotope signal during firnification of snow. The diffusion length, a measure for the amount of diffusion a layer has experienced, depends on the firn temperature and the accumulation rate. We show that the estimation of the diffusion length using power spectral densities (PSDs) of the record of a single isotope species can be biased by uncertainties in spectral properties of the isotope signal prior to diffusion. By using a second water isotope and calculating the difference in diffusion lengths between the two isotopes, this problem is circumvented. We study the PSD method applied to two isotopes in detail and additionally present a new forward diffusion method for retrieving the differential diffusion length based on the Pearson correlation between the two isotope signals. The two methods are discussed and extensively tested on synthetic data which are generated in a Monte Carlo manner. We show that calibration of the PSD method with this synthetic data is necessary to be able to objectively determine the differential diffusion length. The correlation-based method proves to be a good alternative for the PSD method as it yields precision equal to or somewhat higher than the PSD method. The use of synthetic data also allows us to estimate the accuracy and precision of the two methods and to choose the best sampling strategy to obtain past temperatures with the required precision. In addition to application to synthetic data the two methods are tested on stable-isotope records from the EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) ice core drilled in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, showing that reliable firn temperatures can be reconstructed with a typical uncertainty of 1.5 and 2 °C for the Holocene period and 2 and 2.5 °C for the last glacial period for the correlation and PSD method, respectively.

Sea surface temperature estimation for the last 70 ka from IODP Site 306-U1313

During the six Heinrich Events of the last 70 ka episodic calving from the circum-Atlantic ice sheets released large numbers of icebergs into the North Atlantic. These icebergs and associated melt-water flux are hypothesized to have led to a shutdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and severe cooling in large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. However, due to the limited availability of high-resolution records the magnitude sea surface temperature (SST) changes related to the impact of Heinrich Events on the mid-latitude North Atlantic is poorly constrained. Here we present a record of UK37'-based SSTs derived from sediments of Integrated Ocean Drilling Project (IODP) Site U1313, located at the southern end of the ice-rafted debris (IRD)-belt in the mid-latitude North Atlantic (41°N). We demonstrate that all six Heinrich Events are associated with a rapid warming of surface waters by 2 to 4°C in a few thousand years. The presence of IRD leaves no doubt about the simultaneous timing and correlation between rapid surface water warming and Heinrich Events. We argue that this warming in the mid-latitude North Atlantic is related to a northward expansion of the subtropical gyre during Heinrich Events. As a wide-range of studies demonstrated that in the central IRD-belt Heinrich Events are associated with low SSTs, these results thus identify an anti-phased (seesaw) pattern in SSTs during Heinrich Events between the mid-latitude (warm) and northern North Atlantic (cold). This highlights the complex response of surface water characteristics in the North Atlantic to Heinrich Events that is poorly reproduced by fresh water hosing experiments and challenges the widely accepted view that within the IRD-belt of the North Atlantic Heinrich Events coincide with periods of low SSTs.

Impacts of tertiary canal irrigation -- impact evaluation of an infrastructure project

We estimate the economic impacts of irrigation using the panel data set from rural Thailand. We employed difference-in-differences estimation and showed that tertiary irrigation has unexpected impacts. Contrary to the local experts predicitions that it should have substantial productivity impacts as it allows better water controls for farmers, we found largely zero profitability impacts. Another unexpected finding is that, while profitability is not affected, we see an increase in cultivation probability with the construction of tertiary canals. This is observed in both wet and dry seasons. This finding suggests that Thai farmers are willing to expand operation scale once they get water.

Simulation of academic performance rates, estimation of indicators of subjects and of a complete degree

The purpose of this paper is to present a program written in Matlab-Octave for the simulation of the time evolution of student curricula, i.e, how students pass their subjects along time until graduation. The program computes, from the simulations, the academic performance rates for the subjects of the study plan for each semester as well as the overall rates, which are a) the efficiency rate defined as the ratio of the number of students passing the exam to the number of students who registered for it and b) the success rate, defined as the ratio of the number of students passing the exam to the number of students who not only registered for it but also actually took it. Additionally, we compute the rates for the bachelor academic degree which are established for Spain by the National Quality Evaluation and Accreditation Agency (ANECA) and which are the graduation rate (measured as the percentage of students who finish as scheduled in the plan or taking an extra year) and the efficiency rate (measured as the percentage of credits which a student who graduated has really taken). The simulation is done in terms of the probabilities of passing all the subjects in their study plan. The application of the simulator to Polytech students in Madrid, where requirements for passing are specially stiff in first and second year subjects, is particularly relevant to analyze student cohorts and the probabilities of students finishing in the minimum of four years, or taking and extra year or two extra years, and so forth. It is a very useful tool when designing new study plans. The calculation of the probability distribution of the random variable "number of semesters a student has taken to complete the curricula and graduate" is difficult or even unfeasible to obtain analytically, and this is even truer when we incorporate uncertainty in parameter estimation. This is why we apply Monte Carlo simulation which not only provides illustration of the stochastic process but also a method for computation. The stochastic simulator is proving to be a useful tool for identification of the subjects most critical in the distribution of the number of semesters for curriculum vitae (CV) completion and subsequently for a decision making process in terms of CV planning and passing standards in the University. Simulations are performed through a graphical interface where also the results are presented in appropriate figures. The Project has been funded by the Call for Innovation in Education Projects of Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM) through a Project of its school Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales ETSII during the period September 2010-September 2011.

Prediction of wake effects on wind farm power production using a RANS approach. Part II. Offshore: Case studies from the UPWIND project

The estimation of power losses due to wind turbine wakes is crucial to understanding overall wind farm economics. This is especially true for large offshore wind farms, as it represents the primary source of losses in available power, given the regular arrangement of rotors, their generally largerdiameter and the lower ambient turbulence level, all of which conspire to dramatically affect wake expansion and, consequently, the power deficit. Simulation of wake effects in offshore wind farms (in reasonable computational time) is currently feasible using CFD tools. An elliptic CFD model basedon the actuator disk method and various RANS turbulence closure schemes is tested and validated using power ratios extracted from Horns Rev and Nysted wind farms, collected as part of the EU-funded UPWIND project. The primary focus of the present work is on turbulence modeling, as turbulent mixing is the main mechanism for flow recovery inside wind farms. A higher-order approach, based on the anisotropic RSM model, is tested to better take into account the imbalance in the length scales inside and outside of the wake, not well reproduced by current two-equation closure schemes.

Spatial Estimation of Sub-Hour Global Horizontal Irradiance Based on Official Observations and Remote Sensors.

This study was motivated by the need to improve densification of Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) observations, increasing the number of surface weather stations that observe it, using sensors with a sub-hour periodicity and examining the methods of spatial GHI estimation (by interpolation) with that periodicity in other locations. The aim of the present research project is to analyze the goodness of 15-minute GHI spatial estimations for five methods in the territory of Spain (three geo-statistical interpolation methods, one deterministic method and the HelioSat2 method, which is based on satellite images). The research concludes that, when the work area has adequate station density, the best method for estimating GHI every 15 min is Regression Kriging interpolation using GHI estimated from satellite images as one of the input variables. On the contrary, when station density is low, the best method is estimating GHI directly from satellite images. A comparison between the GHI observed by volunteer stations and the estimation model applied concludes that 67% of the volunteer stations analyzed present values within the margin of error (average of +-2 standard deviations).