Investigation of influence of process variables on mechanical strength, size and homogeneity of pharmaceutical granules produced by fluidised hot melt granulation

The overall aim of the project was to study the influence of process variables on the distribution of a model active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) during fluidised melt granulation of pharmaceutical granules with a view of optimising product characteristics. Granules were produced using common pharmaceutical excipients; lactose monohydrate using poly ethylene glycol (PEG1500) as a meltable binder. Methylene blue was used as a model API. Empirical models relating the process variables to the granules properties such as granule mean size, product homogeneity and granule strength were developed using the design of experiment approach. Fluidising air velocity and fluidising air temperature were shown to strongly influence the product properties. Optimisation studies showed that strong granules with homogeneous distribution of the active ingredient can be produced at high fluidising air velocity and at high fluidising air temperatures.

Pathways Project Final Report Volume 1: Field Investigation and Catchment Conceptual Models

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Executive Summary
The Pathways Project field studies were targeted at improving the understanding of contaminant transport along different hydrological pathways in Irish catchments, including their associated impacts on water quality and river ecology. The contaminants of interest were phosphorus, nitrogen and sediment. The working Pathways conceptual model included overland flow, interflow, shallow groundwater flow, and deep groundwater flow. This research informed the development of a set of Catchment Management Support Tools (CMSTs) comprising an Exploratory Tool, Catchment Characterization Tool (CCT) and Catchment Modelling Tool (CMT) as outlined in Pathways Project Final Reports Volumes 3 and 4.
In order to inform the CMST, four suitable study catchments were selected following an extensive selection process, namely the Mattock catchment, Co. Louth/Meath; Gortinlieve catchment, Co. Donegal; Nuenna catchment, Co. Kilkenny and the Glen Burn catchment, Co. Down. The Nuenna catchment is well drained as it is underlain by a regionally important karstified limestone aquifer with permeable limestone tills and gravels, while the other three catchments are underlain by poorly productive aquifers and low permeability clayey tills, and are poorly drained.
All catchments were instrumented, and groundwater, surface and near-surface water and aquatic ecology were monitored for a period of two years. Intensive water quality sampling during rainfall events was used to investigate the pathways delivering nutrients. The proportion of flow along each pathway was determined using chemical and physical hydrograph separation techniques, supported by numerical modelling.
The outcome of the field studies broadly supported the use of the initial four-pathway conceptual model used in the Pathways CMT (time-variant model). The artificial drainage network was found to be a significant contributing pathway in the poorly drained catchments, at low flows and during peak flows in wet antecedent conditions. The transition zone (TZ), i.e. the broken up weathered zone at the top of the bedrock, was also found to be an important pathway. It was observed to operate in two contrasting hydrogeological scenarios: in groundwater discharge zones the TZ can be regarded as being part of the shallow groundwater pathway, whereas in groundwater recharge zones it behaves more like interflow.
In the catchments overlying poorly productive aquifers, only a few fractures or fracture zones were found to be hydraulically active and the TZ, where present, was the main groundwater pathway. In the karstified Nuenna catchment, the springs, which are linked to conduits as well as to a diffuse fracture network, delivered the majority of the flow. These findings confirm the two-component groundwater contribution from bedrock but suggest that the size and nature of the hydraulically active fractures and the nature of the TZ are the dominant factors at the scale of a stream flow event.
Diffuse sources of nitrate were found to be typically delivered via the subsurface pathways, especially in the TZ and land drains in the poorly productive aquifer catchments, and via the bedrock groundwater in the Nuenna. Phosphorus was primarily transported via overland flow in both particulate and soluble forms. Where preferential flow paths existed in the soil and subsoil, soluble P, and to a lesser extent particulate P, were also transported via the TZ and in drains and ditches. Arable land was found to be the most important land use for
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the delivery of sediment, although channel bank and in-stream sources were the most significant in the Glen Burn catchment. Overland flow was found to be the predominant transport sediment pathway in the poorly productive catchments. These findings informed the development of the transport and attenuation equations used in the CCT and CMT. From an assessment of the relationship between physico-chemical and biological conditions, it is suggested that in the Nuenna, Glen Burn and Gortinlieve catchments, a relationship may exist between biological water quality and nitrogen concentrations, as well as with P. In the Nuenna, there was also a relationship between macroinvertebrate status and alkalinity.
Further research is recommended on the transport and delivery of phosphorus in groundwater, the transport and attenuation dynamics in the TZ in different hydrogeological settings and the relationship between macroinvertebrates and co-limiting factors. High resolution temporal and spatial sampling was found to be important for constraining the conceptual understanding of nutrient and sediment dynamics which should also be considered in future studies.

Defining Electricity Tariffs Using the Knowledge About the Consumers Profiles in ELECON Project

The increasing importance of the integration of distributed generation and demand response in the power systems operation and planning, namely at lower voltage levels of distribution networks and in the competitive environment of electricity markets, leads us to the concept of smart grids. In both traditional and smart grid operation, non-technical losses are a great economic concern, which can be addressed. In this context, the ELECON project addresses the use of demand response contributions to the identification of non-technical losses. The present paper proposes a methodology to be used by Virtual Power Players (VPPs), which are entities able to aggregate distributed small-size resources, aiming to define the best electricity tariffs for several, clusters of consumers. A case study based on real consumption data demonstrates the application of the proposed methodology.

Pollen and grain size records in abyssal sediments of the northwest Pacific Ocean as proxies of Plio-Pleistocene climate change /

A distinctive period of global change occurred during the PUocene between the warm Miocene and subsequent Quaternary cooling. Samples from Ocean Drilling Project Site 11 79 (-5586 mbsl, 41°4'N, 159°57'E), Site 881 (-5765 mbsl, 47°6.133'N, 161°29.490'E) and Site 882 (-3255 mbsl, 50°22'N, 167°36'E) were studied to determine the magnitude and composition ofterrigenous flux to the western mid-latitude North Pacific and its relation to climate change in East Asia since the mid-Pliocene. Dust-sized particles (including pollen), sourced from the arid regions and loess plateaus in East Asia are entrained by prevailing westerly winds and transported to the midlatitude northwest North Pacific Ocean. This is recorded by peaks in the total concentration of pollen and spores, as well as the mean grain size of allochthonous and autochthonous silicate material in abyssal marine sediments. Aridification of the Asian interior due to the phased uplift of the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau created the modem East Asian Monsoon system dominated by a strengthening of the winter monsoon. The winter monsoon is further enhanced during glacials due to the expansion of desert and steppe environments at the expense ofwoodlands and forests recorded by the composition of palynological assemblages. The late Pliocene-Pleistocene glacials at ODP Sites 1 179, 881, and 882 are characterized by increases in grain size, magnetic susceptibility, pollen and spore concentrations around 3.5-3.3, 2.6-2.4, 1.7-1.6, and 0.9-0.7 Ma (ages based on magnetostratigraphic and biostratigraphic datums). The peaks during these times are relatively rich in pollen taxa derived primarily from steppe and boreal vegetation zones, recording cool, dry climates. The overall size increase of sediment and abundance of terrestrial palynomorphs record enhanced wind strength. The increase in magnitude of pollen and spore concentrations as well as grain size record global cooling and Northern Hemisphere glaciation. The peaks in grain size as well as pollen and spore abundance in marine sediments correlate with the mean grain size of loess in East Asia, consistent with the deflation of unarmoured surfaces during glacials. The transport of limiting nutrients to marine environments enhanced sea surface productivity and increased the rate of sediment accumulation.

Application of the entropy technique and genetic algorithms to construction site layout planning of medium-size projects

Genetic algorithms (GAs) have been introduced into site layout planning as reported in a number of studies. In these studies, the objective functions were defined so as to employ the GAs in searching for the optimal site layout. However, few studies have been carried out to investigate the actual closeness of relationships between site facilities; it is these relationships that ultimately govern the site layout. This study has determined that the underlying factors of site layout planning for medium-size projects include work flow, personnel flow, safety and environment, and personal preferences. By finding the weightings on these factors and the corresponding closeness indices between each facility, a closeness relationship has been deduced. Two contemporary mathematical approaches - fuzzy logic theory and an entropy measure - were adopted in finding these results in order to minimize the uncertainty and vagueness of the collected data and improve the quality of the information. GAs were then applied to searching for the optimal site layout in a medium-size government project using the GeneHunter software. The objective function involved minimizing the total travel distance. An optimal layout was obtained within a short time. This reveals that the application of GA to site layout planning is highly promising and efficient.

Final report on research project PS2010, proof of concept of automated mapping of weeds in arable fields

Many weeds occur in patches but farmers frequently spray whole fields to control the weeds in these patches. Given a geo-referenced weed map, technology exists to confine spraying to these patches. Adoption of patch spraying by arable farmers has, however, been negligible partly due to the difficulty of constructing weed maps. Building on previous DEFRA and HGCA projects, this proposal aims to develop and evaluate a machine vision system to automate the weed mapping process. The project thereby addresses the principal technical stumbling block to widespread adoption of site specific weed management (SSWM). The accuracy of weed identification by machine vision based on a single field survey may be inadequate to create herbicide application maps. We therefore propose to test the hypothesis that sufficiently accurate weed maps can be constructed by integrating information from geo-referenced images captured automatically at different times of the year during normal field activities. Accuracy of identification will also be increased by utilising a priori knowledge of weeds present in fields. To prove this concept, images will be captured from arable fields on two farms and processed offline to identify and map the weeds, focussing especially on black-grass, wild oats, barren brome, couch grass and cleavers. As advocated by Lutman et al. (2002), the approach uncouples the weed mapping and treatment processes and builds on the observation that patches of these weeds are quite stable in arable fields. There are three main aspects to the project. 1) Machine vision hardware. Hardware component parts of the system are one or more cameras connected to a single board computer (Concurrent Solutions LLC) and interfaced with an accurate Global Positioning System (GPS) supplied by Patchwork Technology. The camera(s) will take separate measurements for each of the three primary colours of visible light (red, green and blue) in each pixel. The basic proof of concept can be achieved in principle using a single camera system, but in practice systems with more than one camera may need to be installed so that larger fractions of each field can be photographed. Hardware will be reviewed regularly during the project in response to feedback from other work packages and updated as required. 2) Image capture and weed identification software. The machine vision system will be attached to toolbars of farm machinery so that images can be collected during different field operations. Images will be captured at different ground speeds, in different directions and at different crop growth stages as well as in different crop backgrounds. Having captured geo-referenced images in the field, image analysis software will be developed to identify weed species by Murray State and Reading Universities with advice from The Arable Group. A wide range of pattern recognition and in particular Bayesian Networks will be used to advance the state of the art in machine vision-based weed identification and mapping. Weed identification algorithms used by others are inadequate for this project as we intend to collect and correlate images collected at different growth stages. Plants grown for this purpose by Herbiseed will be used in the first instance. In addition, our image capture and analysis system will include plant characteristics such as leaf shape, size, vein structure, colour and textural pattern, some of which are not detectable by other machine vision systems or are omitted by their algorithms. Using such a list of features observable using our machine vision system, we will determine those that can be used to distinguish weed species of interest. 3) Weed mapping. Geo-referenced maps of weeds in arable fields (Reading University and Syngenta) will be produced with advice from The Arable Group and Patchwork Technology. Natural infestations will be mapped in the fields but we will also introduce specimen plants in pots to facilitate more rigorous system evaluation and testing. Manual weed maps of the same fields will be generated by Reading University, Syngenta and Peter Lutman so that the accuracy of automated mapping can be assessed. The principal hypothesis and concept to be tested is that by combining maps from several surveys, a weed map with acceptable accuracy for endusers can be produced. If the concept is proved and can be commercialised, systems could be retrofitted at low cost onto existing farm machinery. The outputs of the weed mapping software would then link with the precision farming options already built into many commercial sprayers, allowing their use for targeted, site-specific herbicide applications. Immediate economic benefits would, therefore, arise directly from reducing herbicide costs. SSWM will also reduce the overall pesticide load on the crop and so may reduce pesticide residues in food and drinking water, and reduce adverse impacts of pesticides on non-target species and beneficials. Farmers may even choose to leave unsprayed some non-injurious, environmentally-beneficial, low density weed infestations. These benefits fit very well with the anticipated legislation emerging in the new EU Thematic Strategy for Pesticides which will encourage more targeted use of pesticides and greater uptake of Integrated Crop (Pest) Management approaches, and also with the requirements of the Water Framework Directive to reduce levels of pesticides in water bodies. The greater precision of weed management offered by SSWM is therefore a key element in preparing arable farming systems for the future, where policy makers and consumers want to minimise pesticide use and the carbon footprint of farming while maintaining food production and security. The mapping technology could also be used on organic farms to identify areas of fields needing mechanical weed control thereby reducing both carbon footprints and also damage to crops by, for example, spring tines. Objective i. To develop a prototype machine vision system for automated image capture during agricultural field operations; ii. To prove the concept that images captured by the machine vision system over a series of field operations can be processed to identify and geo-reference specific weeds in the field; iii. To generate weed maps from the geo-referenced, weed plants/patches identified in objective (ii).

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for.

Meteorology, air quality, and health in London: the ClearfLo project

The ClearfLo project provides integrated measurements of the meteorology, composition and particulate loading of London's urban atmosphere to improve predictive capability for air quality. Air quality and heat are strong health drivers and their accurate assessment and forecast are important in densely populated urban areas. However, the sources and processes leading to high concentrations of main pollutants such as ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and fine and coarse particulate matter in complex urban areas are not fully understood, limiting our ability to forecast air quality accurately. This paper introduces the ClearfLo project's interdisciplinary approach to investigate the processes leading to poor air quality and elevated temperatures. Within ClearfLo (www.clearflo.ac.uk), a large multi-institutional project funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), integrated measurements of meteorology, gaseous and particulate composition/loading within London's atmosphere were undertaken to understand the processes underlying poor air quality. Long-term measurement infrastructure installed at multiple levels (street and elevated), and at urban background, kerbside and rural locations were complemented with high-resolution numerical atmospheric simulations . Combining these (measurement/modeling) enhances understanding of seasonal variations in meteorology and composition together with the controlling processes. Two intensive observation periods (winter 2012 and summer Olympics 2012) focus upon the vertical structure and evolution of the urban boundary layer, chemical controls on nitrogen dioxide and ozone production, in particular the role of volatile organic compounds, and processes controlling the evolution, size, distribution and composition of particulate matter. The paper shows that mixing heights are deeper over London than in the rural surroundings and the seasonality of the urban boundary layer evolution controls when concentrations peak. The composition also reflects the seasonality of sources such as domestic burning and biogenic emissions.

The DYMECS project: a statistical approach for the evaluation of convective storms in high-resolution NWP models

A new frontier in weather forecasting is emerging by operational forecast models now being run at convection-permitting resolutions at many national weather services. However, this is not a panacea; significant systematic errors remain in the character of convective storms and rainfall distributions. The DYMECS project (Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms) is taking a fundamentally new approach to evaluate and improve such models: rather than relying on a limited number of cases, which may not be representative, we have gathered a large database of 3D storm structures on 40 convective days using the Chilbolton radar in southern England. We have related these structures to storm life-cycles derived by tracking features in the rainfall from the UK radar network, and compared them statistically to storm structures in the Met Office model, which we ran at horizontal grid length between 1.5 km and 100 m, including simulations with different subgrid mixing length. We also evaluated the scale and intensity of convective updrafts using a new radar technique. We find that the horizontal size of simulated convective storms and the updrafts within them is much too large at 1.5-km resolution, such that the convective mass flux of individual updrafts can be too large by an order of magnitude. The scale of precipitation cores and updrafts decreases steadily with decreasing grid lengths, as does the typical storm lifetime. The 200-m grid-length simulation with standard mixing length performs best over all diagnostics, although a greater mixing length improves the representation of deep convective storms.

The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter?

Using an international, multi-model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare the seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve the stratosphere and its dynamics (“high-top”) and models that do not (“low-top”). We evaluate hindcasts that are initialized in November, and examine the model biases in the stratosphere and how they relate to boreal wintertime (Dec-Mar) seasonal forecast skill. We are unable to detect more skill in the high-top ensemble-mean than the low-top ensemble-mean in forecasting the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, but model performance varies widely. Increasing the ensemble size clearly increases the skill for a given model. We then examine two major processes involving stratosphere-troposphere interactions (the El Niño-Southern Oscillation/ENSO and the Quasi-biennial Oscillation/QBO) and how they relate to predictive skill on intra-seasonal to seasonal timescales, particularly over the North Atlantic and Eurasia regions. High-top models tend to have a more realistic stratospheric response to El Niño and the QBO compared to low-top models. Enhanced conditional wintertime skill over high-latitudes and the North Atlantic region during winters with El Niño conditions suggests a possible role for a stratospheric pathway.

Software architecture for web-based project management system

This article presents software architecture for a web-based system to aid project managing, conceptually founded on guidelines of the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBoK) and on ISO/IEC 9126, as well as on the result of an empiric study done in Brazil. Based on these guidelines, this study focused on two different points of view about project management: the view of those who develop software systems to aid management and the view of those who use these systems. The designed software architecture is capable of guiding an incremental development of a quality system that will satisfy today's marketing necessities, principally those of small and medium size enterprises.

Variability in light absorption and scattering of phytoplankton in Patagonian waters: Role of community size structure and pigment composition

Intense phytoplankton blooms were observed along the Patagonian shelf-break with satellite ocean color data, but few in situ optical observations were made in that region. We examine the variability of phytoplankton absorption and particulate scattering coefficients during such blooms on the basis of field data. The chlorophyll-a concentration, [Chla], ranged from 0.1 to 22.3 mg m−3 in surface waters. The size fractionation of [Chla] showed that 80% of samples were dominated by nanophytoplankton (N-group) and 20% by microphytoplankton (M-group). Chlorophyll-specific phytoplankton absorption coefficients at 440 and 676 nm, a*ph(440) and a*ph(676), and particulate scattering coefficient at 660 nm, b*p(660), ranged from 0.018 to 0.173, 0.009 to 0.046, and 0.031 to 2.37 m2 (mg Chla)−1, respectively. Both a*ph(440) and a*ph(676) were statistically higher for the N-group than M-group and also considerably higher than expected from global trends as a function of [Chla]. This result suggests that size of phytoplankton cells in Patagonian waters tends to be smaller than in other regions at similar [Chla]. The phytoplankton cell size parameter, Sf, derived from phytoplankton absorption spectra, proved to be useful for interpreting the variability in the data around the general inverse dependence of a*ph(440), a*ph(676), and b*p(660) on [Chla]. Sf also showed a pattern along the increasing trend of a*ph(440) and a*ph(676) as a function of the ratios of some accessory pigments to [Chla]. Our results suggest that the variability in phytoplankton absorption and scattering coefficients in Patagonian waters is caused primarily by changes in the dominant phytoplankton cell size accompanied by covariation in the concentrations of accessory pigments.

Rotation Grazing Demonstrations With Beef Cows on HEL - Adams County Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) Project

Two grazing systems were demonstrated on Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) land in southwestern Iowa near Corning in the summers of 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, and 1995. This report summarizes the 1995 data and compares them to results from the four previous years. The systems, a 13-paddock intensive-rotational grazing system and a 4-paddock more traditional rotation, both established in 1991, are aimed at showing economically sustainable grass alternatives for steeply sloping (9-14% slope), highly erodible land (HEL) once the 10-year CRP ends. In a 147-day grazing season in 1995, nursing crossbred calves with no creep gained 2.36 pounds and 2.38 pounds per day on the 13- and 4-paddock systems, respectively. The rotations were stocked at 1.65 acres per cow-calf pair on the 13-paddock system and 1.72 acres per pair on the 4-paddock system. This produced 210.2 pounds of calf gain per acre on the 13-paddock system and 203.2 pounds of calf gain per acre on the 4- paddock system.. Similar calves gained 2.37 pounds and 2.50 pounds per day for 155 days, yielding a total gain per acre of 222.7 pounds on the 13-paddock system and 224.9 pounds on the 4-paddock system in 1994. Results for 1992 remain the highest from both systems in the five years of grazing, with calf gain per head per day at 2.45 for 155 days netting 241.9 pounds per acre on the 13- paddock system and calf gain per head per day at 2.38 for 154 days on the 4-paddock system yielding 263.6 pounds per acre. Cows maintained both their weight and condition scores in both systems again in 1995. A third system, the 18-paddock intensive-rotational grazing system, was stocked with stocker steers in 1995, and the results are reported in a second article in the 1996 ISU Beef Research Report entitled “Intensive- Rotational Grazing Steers on Highly Erodible Land at the Adams County CRP Project.” Concerning grazing management, paddocks were grazed four, five, or six times in the 13-paddock intensive- rotational grazing system during the 147-day grazing season of 1995. This number of times grazed per paddock was nearly equal to times grazed per paddock in 1994. However, several paddocks were subdivided temporarily to equalize paddock size and increase grazing uniformity. This increased the total number of cattle moves in the 13-paddock system from 78 in 1994 to 109 in 1995. The average length of stay on each paddock or subdivision of a paddock per grazing time was 1 to 2.2 days. This was less than in any of the other four grazing years in this project. The principle of not grazing more than half the standing forage during any one grazing period was closely followed in 1995. All paddocks in the 13-paddock system were also rested approximately the recommended 30 days between each grazing cycle in 1995.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for.

Social skills as predictors of communication, performance and quality of collaboration in project-based learning

The assumption that social skills are necessary ingredients of collaborative learning is well established but rarely empirically tested. In addition, most theories on collaborative learning focus on social skills only at the personal level, while the social skill configurations within a learning group might be of equal importance. Using the integrative framework, this study investigates which social skills at the personal level and at the group level are predictive of task-related e-mail communication, satisfaction with performance and perceived quality of collaboration. Data collection took place in a technology-enhanced long-term project-based learning setting for pre-service teachers. For data collection, two questionnaires were used, one at the beginning and one at the end of the learning cycle which lasted 3 months. During the project phase, the e-mail communication between group members was captured as well. The investigation of 60 project groups (N = 155 for the questionnaires; group size: two or three students) and 33 groups for the e-mail communication (N = 83) revealed that personal social skills played only a minor role compared to group level configurations of social skills in predicting satisfaction with performance, perceived quality of collaboration and communication behaviour. Members from groups that showed a high and/or homogeneous configuration of specific social skills (e.g., cooperation/compromising, leadership) usually were more satisfied and saw their group as more efficient than members from groups with a low and/or heterogeneous configuration of skills.