Forecasting the future: an overview of the strategic planning of the Bournemouth and Poole conurbation

An important part of strategic planning’s purpose should be to attempt to forecast the future, not simply to belatedly respond to events, or accept the future as inevitable. This paper puts forward a conceptual approach for seeking to achieve these aims and uses the Bournemouth and Poole area in Dorset as a vehicle for applying the basic methodology. The area has been chosen because of the significant issues that it currently faces in planning terms; and its future development possibilities. In order that alternative future choices for the area – different ‘developmental trajectories’ – can be evaluated, they must be carefully and logically constructed. Four Futures for Bournemouth/Poole have been put forward; they are titled and colour-coded: Future One is Maximising Growth – Golden Prospect which seeks to achieve the highest level of economic prosperity of the area; Future Two is Incremental Growth – Solid Silver which attempts to facilitate a steady, continuing, controlled pattern of the development for the area; Future Three is Steady State – Cobalt Blue which suggests that people in the area could be more concerned with preserving their quality of life in terms of their leisure and recreation rather than increasing wealth; Future Four is Environment First – Jade Green which makes the area’s environmental protection its top priority even at the possible expense of economic prosperity. The scenarios proposed here are not sacrosanct. Nor are they simply confined to the Bournemouth and Poole area. In theory, suitably modified, they could use in a variety of different contexts. Consideration of the scenarios – wherever located - might then generate other, additional scenarios. These are called hybrids, alloys and amalgams. Likewise it might identify some of them as inappropriate or impossible. Most likely, careful consideration of the scenarios will suggest hybrid scenarios, in which features from different scenarios are combined to produce alternative or additional futures for consideration. The real issue then becomes how best to fashion such a future for the particular area under consideration

Bottom-up planning and the future of planning education in India

The article discusses normative guidelines for reorienting planning education in India within the context of the immensely influential Constitutional Amendment Act of 1993. First, it briefly sketches the status of planning education at present in India, in relation to the role of planners in planning practice. It then descibes the changes that have taken place in general, following the Constitutional Amendment Act, dwelling more on the specific changes within the State of Kerala. The implications of these for planning education in general are then discussed normatively, highlighting three areas that need immediate attention from the planning academic community.

Household attributes and the future demand for retirement housing

Ageing populations provoke the question of how much bespoke housing should be provided for the elderly. Older people are generally reluctant to move but as they age health circumstances may encourage moves into specialised accommodation. This paper reports an exercise in estimating the future demand for specialised independent living housing and the extent to which that demand will be for owner occupied accommodation or renting, using data for England. The approach is based on a behavioral model related to health and housing issues. The forecasts indicate a substantial increase in demand, growing at a faster rate than the population as a whole. If supply does not rise to meet these demands, serious problems arise in the quality of life of, and cost of caring for, older people; with implications for health care and social services.

Turing, Kasparov and the future

The 'Turing 100' Conference in Manchester was the main event of the Turing Centenary Year in 2012. This is a report and reflection on Kasparov's popular talk. Within it, he explained how Turing and influenced computer chess, his career and the chess community. Kasparov also played Chessbase's 'TURING' emulation of Turing's second paper chess engine, here labelled 'AT2'. Quasi Turing-tests, computer contributions to world championship chess, and suspected cheating in chess are also mentioned.

Sensors and the city: a review of urban meteorological networks

The heterogeneous nature of urban environments means that atmospheric research ideally requires a dense network of sensors to adequately resolve the local climate. With recent advances in sensor technology, a number of urban meteorological networks now exist with a range of research or operational objectives. This article reviews and assesses the current status of urban meteorological networks, by examining the fundamental scientific and logistical issues related to these networks. The article concludes by making recommendations for future deployments based on the challenges encountered by existing networks, including the need for better reporting and documentation of network characteristics, standardized approaches and guidelines, along with the need to overcome financial barriers via collaborative relationships in order to establish the long-term urban networks essential for advancing urban climate research. Copyright © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society

Superinfection exclusion and the long-term survival of honey bees in Varroa-infested colonies

Over the past 50 years, many millions of European honey bee (Apis mellifera) colonies have died as the ectoparasitic mite, Varroa destructor, has spread around the world. Subsequent studies have indicated that the mite's association with a group of RNA viral pathogens (Deformed Wing Virus, DWV) correlates with colony death. Here, we propose a phenomenon known as superinfection exclusion that provides an explanation of how certain A. mellifera populations have survived, despite Varroa infestation and high DWV loads. Next-generation sequencing has shown that a non-lethal DWV variant 'type B' has become established in these colonies and that the lethal 'type A' DWV variant fails to persist in the bee population. We propose that this novel stable host-pathogen relationship prevents the accumulation of lethal variants, suggesting that this interaction could be exploited for the development of an effective treatment that minimises colony losses in the future.The ISME Journal advance online publication, 27 October 2015; doi:10.1038/ismej.2015.186.