Noninvasive prognostic markers for cardiac death and ventricular arrhythmia in long-term follow-up of subjects with chronic Chagas' disease

The objective of the present study was to investigate clinical, echocardiographic and electrocardiographic (12-lead resting ECG, 24-h ambulatory ECG monitoring and signal-averaged ECG (SAECG)) parameters in subjects with chronic Chagas' disease in a long-term follow-up as prognostic markers for adverse outcomes. Fifty adult outpatients (34 to 74 years old, 31 females) staged according to Los Andes class I, II or III and complaining of palpitation were enrolled in a longitudinal study. SAECG was analyzed in time and frequency domains and the endpoint was a composite of cardiac death and ventricular tachycardia. During a follow-up of 84.2 ± 39.0 months, 34.0% of the patients developed adverse outcomes (9 cardiac deaths and 11 episodes of ventricular tachycardia). After optimal dichotomization, in a stepwise multivariate Cox-hazard regression model, apical aneurysm (HR = 3.7; 95% CI = 1.2-1.3; P = 0.02), left ventricular ejection fraction <62% (HR = 4.60; 95% CI = 1.39-15.24; P = 0.01) and incidence of ventricular premature contractions >614 per 24 h (hazard ratio = 6.1; 95% CI = 1.7-22.6; P = 0.006) were independent predictors of the composite endpoint. Although a high frequency content in SAECG demonstrated association with the presence of left ventricular dysfunction and myocardial fibrosis, its predictive value for the composite endpoint was not significant. Apical aneurysms, reduced left ventricular function and a high incidence of ventricular ectopic beats over a 24-h period have a strong predictive value for a composite endpoint of cardiac death and ventricular tachycardia in subjects with chronic Chagas' disease.

MMP-1/PAR-1 signal transduction axis and its prognostic impact in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

The matrix metalloprotease-1 (MMP-1)/protease-activated receptor-1 (PAR-1) signal transduction axis plays an important role in tumorigenesis. To explore the expression and prognostic value of MMP-1 and PAR-1 in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), we evaluated the expression of two proteins in resected specimens from 85 patients with ESCC by immunohistochemistry. Sixty-two (72.9%) and 58 (68.2%) tumors were MMP-1- and PAR-1-positive, respectively, while no significant staining was observed in normal esophageal squamous epithelium. MMP-1 and PAR-1 overexpression was significantly associated with tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage and regional lymph node involvement. Patients with MMP-1- and PAR-1-positive tumors, respectively, had poorer disease-free survival (DFS) than those with negative ESCC (P = 0.002 and 0.003, respectively). Univariate analysis showed a significant relationship between TNM stage [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.836, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.866-4.308], regional lymph node involvement (HR = 2.955, 95%CI = 1.713-5.068), MMP-1 expression (HR = 2.669, 95%CI = 1.229-6.127), and PAR-1 expression (HR = 1.762, 95%CI = 1.156-2.883) and DFS. Multivariate analysis including the above four parameters identified TNM stage (HR = 2.035, 95%CI = 1.167-3.681), MMP-1 expression (HR = 2.109, 95%CI = 1.293-3.279), and PAR-1 expression (HR = 1.967, 95%CI = 1.256-2.881) as independent and significant prognostic factors for DFS. Our data suggest for the first time that MMP-1 and PAR-1 were both overexpressed in ESCC and are novel predictors of poor patient prognosis after curative resection. The MMP-1/PAR-1 signal transduction axis might be a new therapeutic target for future therapies tailored against ESCC.

Post-polio syndrome: epidemiologic and prognostic aspects in Brazil

Objectives - To describe the clinical and epidemiological aspects of post-polio syndrome (PPS) and identify predictors of its severity. Materials and methods - 132 patients with PPS were selected at the Neuromuscular Disease Outpatient Clinic of the Federal University of Sao Paulo. Descriptive analysis was carried out and predictors of PPS severe forms were investigated using an unconditional logistic regression. Results - The average age at onset was 39.4 years. The most common symptoms were fatigue (87.1%), muscle pain (82.4%) and joint pain (72.0%); 50.4% of the cases were severe. The following were associated with PPS severity: a < 4-year period of neurological recovery (OR 2.8), permanent damage in two limbs (OR 3.6) and residence at the time of acute polio in a city with more advanced medical assistance (OR 2.5). Conclusions - Health professionals should carefully evaluate polio survivors for PPS and be aware of the implications of muscle overuse in the neurological recovery period.

Potentially modifiable predictors of mortality in patients treated with long-term oxygen therapy

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Mild cognitive impairment (part 1): Clinical characteristics and predictors of dementia

Objective: To critically review and evaluate existing knowledge on the conceptual limits and clinical usefulness of the diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and the neuropsychological assessment and short- and long-term prognosis thereof. Methods: We conducted a systematic search of the PubMed and Web of Science electronic databases, limited to articles published in English between 1999 and 2012. Based on the search terms mild cognitive impairment or MCI and epidemiology or diagnosis, we retrieved 1,698 articles, of which 248 were critically eligible (cross-sectional and longitudinal studies); the abstracts of the remaining 1,450 articles were also reviewed. Results: A critical review on the MCI construct is provided, including conceptual and diagnostic aspects; epidemiological relevance; clinical assessment; prognosis; and outcome. The distinct definitions of cognitive impairment, MCI included, yield clinically heterogeneous groups of individuals. Those who will eventually progress to dementia may present with symptoms consistent with the definition of MCI; conversely, individuals with MCI may remain stable or return to normal cognitive function. Conclusion: On clinical grounds, the cross-sectional diagnosis of MCI has limited prognostic relevance. The characterization of persistent and/or progressive cognitive deficits over time is a better approach for identification of cases at the pre-dementia stages, particularly if these cognitive abnormalities are consistent with the natural history of incipient Alzheimer's disease. © 2013 Associação Brasileira de Psiquiatria.

BNP and Admission Glucose as In-Hospital Mortality Predictors in Non-ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Objectives. Admission hyperglycemia and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) are associated with mortality in acute coronary syndromes, but no study compares their prediction in-hospital death. Methods. Patients with non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), in-hospital mortality and two-year mortality or readmission were compared for area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity (SEN), specificity (SPE), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy (ACC) of glycemia and BNP. Results. Respectively, AUC, SEN, SPE, PPV, NPV, and ACC for prediction of in-hospital mortality were 0.815, 71.4%, 84.3%, 26.3%, 97.4%, and 83.3% for glycemia = 200 mg/dL and 0.748, 71.4%, 68.5%, 15.2%, 96.8% and 68.7% for BNP = 300 pg/mL. AUC of glycemia was similar to BNP (P = 0.411). In multivariate analysis we found glycemia >= 200mg/dL related to in-hospital death (P = 0.004). No difference was found in two-year mortality or readmission in BNP or hyperglycemic subgroups. Conclusion. Hyperglycemia was an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality in NSTEMI and had a good ROC curve level. Hyperglycemia and BNP, although poor in-hospital predictors of unfavorable events, were independent risk factors for death or length of stay >10 days. No relation was found between hyperglycemia or BNP and long-term events.

Survival, Causes of Death, and Prognostic Factors in Systemic Sclerosis: Analysis of 947 Brazilian Patients

Objective. To analyze survival, prognostic factors, and causes of death in a large cohort of patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). Methods. From 1991 to 2010, 947 patients with SSc were treated at 2 referral university centers in Brazil. Causes of death were considered SSc-related and non-SSc-related. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify prognostic factors. Survival at 5 and 10 years was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results. One hundred sixty-eight patients died during the followup. Among the 110 deaths considered related to SSc, there was predominance of lung (48.1%) and heart (24.5%) involvement. Most of the 58 deaths not related to SSc were caused by infection, cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease, and cancer. Male sex, modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) > 20, osteoarticular involvement, lung involvement, and renal crisis were the main prognostic factors associated to death. Overall survival rate was 90% for 5 years and 84% for 10 years. Patients presented worse prognosis if they had diffuse SSc (85% vs 92% at 5 yrs, respectively, and 77% vs 87% at 10 yrs, compared to limited SSc), male sex (77% vs 90% at 5 yrs and 64% vs 86% at 10 yrs, compared to female sex), and mRSS > 20 (83% vs 90% at 5 yrs and 66% vs 86% at 10 yrs, compared to mRSS <20). Conclusion. Survival was worse in male patients with diffuse SSc, and lung and heart involvement represented the main causes of death in this South American series of patients with SSc. (First Release Aug 15 2012; J Rheumatol 2012;39:1971-8; doi:10.3899/jrheum.111582)

Combined expression of BUB1B, DLGAP5, and PINK1 as predictors of poor outcome in adrenocortical tumors: validation in a Brazilian cohort of adult and pediatric patients

Background: A recent microarray study identified a set of genes whose combined expression patterns were predictive of poor outcome in a cohort of adult adrenocortical tumors (ACTs). The difference between the expression values measured by qRT-PCR of DLGAP5 and PINK1 genes was the best molecular predictor of recurrence and malignancy. Among the adrenocortical carcinomas, the combined expression of BUB1B and PINK1 genes was the most reliable predictor of overall survival. The prognostic and molecular heterogeneity of ACTs raises the need to study the applicability of these molecular markers in other cohorts. Objective: To validate the combined expression of BUB1B, DLGAP5, and PINK1 as outcome predictor in ACTs from a Brazilian cohort of adult and pediatric patients. Patients and methods: BUB1B, DLGAP5, and PINK1 expression was assessed by quantitative PCR in 53 ACTs from 52 patients - 24 pediatric and 28 adults (one pediatric patient presented a bilateral asynchronous ACT). Results: DLGAP5 PINK1 and BUB1B PINK1 were strong predictors of disease-free survival and overall survival, respectively, among adult patients with ACT. In the pediatric cohort, these molecular predictors were only marginally associated with disease-free survival but not with overall survival. Conclusion: This study confirms the prognostic value of the combined expression of BUB1B, DLGAP5, and PINK1 genes in a Brazilian group of adult ACTs. Among pediatric ACTs, other molecular predictors of outcome are required.

Lung cancer symptoms and pulse oximetry in the prognostic assessment of patients with lung cancer

Abstract Background Medical oncologists continue to use performance status as a proxy for quality of life (QOL) measures, as completion of QOL instruments is perceived as time consuming, may measure aspects of QOL not affected by cancer therapy, and interpretation may be unclear. The pulse oximeter is widely used in clinical practice to predict cardiopulmonary morbidity after lung resection in cancer patients, but little is known on its role outside the surgical setting. We evaluated whether the Lung Cancer Symptom Scale and pulse oximetry may contribute to the evaluation of lung cancer patients who received standard anticancer therapy. Methods We enrolled forty-one consecutive, newly diagnosed, patients with locally advanced or metastatic lung cancer in this study. We developed a survival model with the variables gender, age, histology, clinical stage, Karnofsky performance status, wasting, LCSS symptom scores, average symptom burden index, and pulse oximetry (SpO2). Results Patient and observer-rated scores were correlated, except for the fatigue subscale. The median SpO2 was 95% (range: 86 to 98), was unrelated to symptom scores, and was weakly correlated with observer cough scores. In a multivariate survival model, SpO2 > 90% and patient scores on the LCSS appetite and fatigue subscales were independent predictors of survival. Conclusion LCSS fatigue and appetite rating, and pulse oximetry should be studied further as prognostic factors in lung cancer patients.

Smad2 and Smad6 as predictors of overall survival in oral squamous cell carcinoma patients

Abstract Background To test if the expression of Smad1-8 mRNAs were predictive of survival in patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). Patients and Methods We analyzed, prospectively, the expression of Smad1-8, by means of Ribonuclease Protection Assay in 48 primary, operable, oral SCC. In addition, 21 larynx, 10 oropharynx and 4 hypopharynx SCC and 65 matched adjacent mucosa, available for study, were also included. For survival analysis, patients were categorized as positive or negative for each Smad, according to median mRNA expression. We also performed real-time quantitative PCR (QRTPCR) to asses the pattern of TGFβ1, TGFβ2, TGFβ3 in oral SCC. Results Our results showed that Smad2 and Smad6 mRNA expression were both associated with survival in Oral SCC patients. Cox Multivariate analysis revealed that Smad6 positivity and Smad2 negativity were both predictive of good prognosis for oral SCC patients, independent of lymph nodal status (P = 0.003 and P = 0.029, respectively). In addition, simultaneously Smad2- and Smad6+ oral SCC group of patients did not reach median overall survival (mOS) whereas the mOS of Smad2+/Smad6- subgroup was 11.6 months (P = 0.004, univariate analysis). Regarding to TGFβ isoforms, we found that Smad2 mRNA and TGFβ1 mRNA were inversely correlated (p = 0.05, R = -0.33), and that seven of the eight TGFβ1+ patients were Smad2-. In larynx SCC, Smad7- patients did not reach mOS whereas mOS of Smad7+ patients were only 7.0 months (P = 0.04). No other correlations were found among Smad expression, clinico-pathological characteristics and survival in oral, larynx, hypopharynx, oropharynx or the entire head and neck SCC population. Conclusion Smad6 together with Smad2 may be prognostic factors, independent of nodal status in oral SCC after curative resection. The underlying mechanism which involves aberrant TGFβ signaling should be better clarified in the future.

Predictors of long-term survival among first-ever ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke in a Brazilian stroke cohort

Abstract Background Few studies have examined both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke to identify prognostic factors associated to long-term stroke survival. We investigated long-term survival and predictors that could adversely influence ischemic and hemorrhagic first-ever stroke prognosis. Methods We prospectively ascertained 665 consecutive first-ever ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke cases from “The Study of Stroke Mortality and Morbidity” (The EMMA Study) in a community hospital in São Paulo, Brazil. We evaluated cardiovascular risk factors and sociodemographic characteristics (age, gender, race and educational level). Results We found a lower survival rate among hemorrhagic cases compared to ischemic stroke cases at the end of 4 years of follow-up (52% vs. 44%, p = 0.04). The risk of death was two times higher among people with ischemic stroke without formal education. Also, we found consistently higher risk of death for diabetics with ischemic stroke (HR = 1.45; 95% CI = 1.07-1.97) compared to no diabetics. As expected, age equally influenced on the high risk of poor survival, regardless of stroke subtype. Conclusions For ischemic stroke, the lack of formal education and diabetes were significant independent predictors of poor long-term survival.

Matrix metalloproteinases and angiogenic factors: predictors of survival after radical prostatectomy for clinically organ-confined prostate cancer?

The aim of the present study was to investigate whether biomarkers improve the prediction of recurrence-free, disease-specific, and overall survival in patients with clinically localized prostate cancer. A tissue microarray was constructed from prostate specimens of 278 patients who underwent open radical retropubic prostatectomy for clinically localized prostate cancer. For immunohistochemical studies, antibodies were used against matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-2, MMP-3, MMP-7, MMP-9, MMP-13, and MMP-19, as well as against vascular endothelial growth factor, hypoxia-induced factor 1 , basic fibroblast growth factor, and cluster of differentiation 31. Univariate and multivariable analyses were performed to evaluate the potential predictors of overall, disease-specific, and recurrence-free survival. In univariate analysis of patients with clinically organ-confined prostate cancer, only higher expression levels of MMP-9 (hazard ratio [0.6], 95% CI 0.45-0.8) had a protective effect in terms of overall survival. This positive effect of high MMP-9 expression was also observed for recurrence-free (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.78-0.99) and disease-specific survival (HR 0.5, 95% CI 0.36-0.73). In multivariable analysis, none of these potential markers was found to be an independent prognostic factor of survival. Of all MMPs and angiogenic factors tested, MMP-9 expression has the potential as a prognostic marker in patients undergoing radical prostatectomy for clinically organ-confined cases of prostate cancer.

Neurological outcome, working capacity and prognostic factors of patients with SCIWORA

STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective case review. OBJECTIVES: In the present study, the neurological outcome, retirement and prognostic factors of patients with spinal cord injury without radiographic abnormality (SCIWORA) were evaluated. SETTING: Swiss national work accident insurance database. METHODS: The medical histories of 32 patients who were insured by the Swiss Accident Insurance Fund (SUVA) and had SCIWORA between 1995 and 2004 were evaluated thoroughly. Moreover, all available magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans were evaluated. RESULTS: At the last follow-up, none of the patients had complete spinal cord injury, only 4 patients had severe deficits and 12 patients had normal motor and sensory function in the neurological examination. However, only 7 out of 32 patients had returned to full-time work and 10 out of 32 patients were fully retired. Both the presence of spinal cord change (ρ=0.51) and higher maximum spinal cord compression (ρ=0.57) in MRI scan correlated with the likelihood for retirement; older age (ρ=0.38) and physical load of work (ρ=0.4) correlated with retirement to a lesser extent. CONCLUSION: Although the neurological outcome of SCIWORA is mostly good, the retirement rate is high. Presence of spinal cord change and severity of cord compression are the best predictors for the degree of retirement.

Predictors of sickness absence in patients with a new episode of low back pain in primary care

This study examines predictors of sickness absence in patients presenting to a health practitioner with acute/ subacute low back pain (LBP). Aims of this study were to identify baseline-variables that detect patients with a new LBP episode at risk of sickness absence and to identify prognostic models for sickness absence at different time points after initial presentation. Prospective cohort study investigating 310 patients presenting to a health practitioner with a new episode of LBP at baseline, three-, six-, twelve-week and six-month follow-up, addressing work-related, psychological and biomedical factors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify baseline-predictors of sickness absence at different time points. Prognostic models comprised 'job control', 'depression' and 'functional limitation' as predictive baseline-factors of sickness absence at three and six-week follow-up with 'job control' being the best single predictor (OR 0.47; 95%CI 0.26-0.87). The six-week model explained 47% of variance of sickness absence at six-week follow-up (p<0.001). The prediction of sickness absence beyond six-weeks is limited, and health practitioners should re-assess patients at six weeks, especially if they have previously been identified as at risk of sickness absence. This would allow timely intervention with measures designed to reduce the likelihood of prolonged sickness absence.

The Strauss and Carpenter Prognostic Scale in subjects clinically at high risk of psychosis

Objective:  To investigate the predictive value of the Strauss and Carpenter Prognostic Scale (SCPS) for transition to a first psychotic episode in subjects clinically at high risk (CHR) of psychosis. Method:  Two hundred and forty-four CHR subjects participating in the European Prediction of Psychosis Study were assessed with the SCPS, an instrument that has been shown to predict outcome in patients with schizophrenia reliably. Results:  At 18-month follow-up, 37 participants had made the transition to psychosis. The SCPS total score was predictive of a first psychotic episode (P < 0.0001). SCPS items that remained as independent predictors in the Cox proportional hazard model were as follows: most usual quality of useful work in the past year (P = 0.006), quality of social relations (P = 0.006), presence of thought disorder, delusions or hallucinations in the past year (P = 0.001) and reported severity of subjective distress in past month (P = 0.003). Conclusion:  The SCPS could make a valuable contribution to a more accurate prediction of psychosis in CHR subjects as a second-step tool. SCPS items assessing quality of useful work and social relations, positive symptoms and subjective distress have predictive value for transition. Further research should focus on investigating whether targeted early interventions directed at the predictive domains may improve outcomes.