Clustering and hot spot detection in socio-economic spatio-temporal data

Distribution of socio-economic features in urban space is an important source of information for land and transportation planning. The metropolization phenomenon has changed the distribution of types of professions in space and has given birth to different spatial patterns that the urban planner must know in order to plan a sustainable city. Such distributions can be discovered by statistical and learning algorithms through different methods. In this paper, an unsupervised classification method and a cluster detection method are discussed and applied to analyze the socio-economic structure of Switzerland. The unsupervised classification method, based on Ward's classification and self-organized maps, is used to classify the municipalities of the country and allows to reduce a highly-dimensional input information to interpret the socio-economic landscape. The cluster detection method, the spatial scan statistics, is used in a more specific manner in order to detect hot spots of certain types of service activities. The method is applied to the distribution services in the agglomeration of Lausanne. Results show the emergence of new centralities and can be analyzed in both transportation and social terms.

Etude d'administration contrôlée de cannabis et profils cinétiques des cannabinoïdes dans les fluides biologiques

Le cannabis est l'une des drogues illégales les plus consommées au monde. Le delta-9- tétrahydrocannabinol (THC) est le composé psychoactif majeur du cannabis et est fréquemment détecté dans le sang de conducteurs impliqués dans un accident de la route, alors qu'il est actuellement interdit de conduire sous l'influence du THC en Suisse comme dans de nombreux pays européens. La détection de ce composé dans le sang est suivie d'une série de mesures pénales et administratives à l'encontre du conducteur impliqué. Cette thèse intitulée « Etude d'administration contrôlée de cannabis et profils cinétiques dans les fluides biologiques » s'inscrit dans une étude toxicologique menée au Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois (CHUV). Le but de cette étude est d'évaluer les effets du cannabis sur le fonctionnement du cerveau lorsque le consommateur accompli une tâche fondamentale de la conduite automobile. Pour cela, l'imagerie médicale par résonnance magnétique fonctionnelle (IRMf) est combinée à un test informatisé simulant une tâche psychomotrice requise pour une conduite automobile sûre. Il s'agit d'un test de double tâche de poursuite d'une cible au moyen d'un curseur dirigé par un joystick, combiné à une tâche secondaire de détection de signaux routiers. Parallèlement, les profils cinétiques sanguins et salivaires des volontaires ont été déterminés grâce à des prélèvements effectués tout au long de la journée d'étude. Les objectifs principaux de ce travail de thèse sont les suivants : après une revue de la littérature existante sur les techniques d'analyse des cannabinoïdes dans les fluides biologiques, une méthode a été développée et validée pour ces composés dans la salive puis appliquée aux échantillons de l'étude. En parallèle, les échantillons sanguins et urinaires ont été analysés, en partie avec une méthode adaptée de celle développée pour la salive. Pour montrer la versatilité de cette méthode, celle-ci a été employée pour analyser des échantillons de bile qui a l'avantage de contenir des concentrations élevées de métabolites conjugués. Dans un deuxième temps, les dosages effectués sur le sang et la salive ont permis d'établir les profils cinétiques des cannabinoïdes, de déterminer leurs paramètres pharmacocinétiques et de les comparer. Les données obtenues ont montré que la concentration sanguine en acide 11-nor-9- carboxy-delta-9-tétrahydrocannabinol (THCCOOH) pouvait servir à distinguer les fumeurs occasionnels des fumeurs réguliers de cannabis, car elle est significativement plus élevée chez les consommateurs réguliers. De plus, d'autres cannabinoïdes présents dans la salive pourraient servir de marqueurs de consommation récente dans ce fluide biologique. Enfin, que ce soit dans le sang, la salive ou l'urine, des phytocannabinoïdes peuvent être utilisés comme marqueur de consommation de cannabis illégal car ils sont absents des médicaments à base de cannabis utilisant des préparations synthétiques ou purifiées du THC.

Spatio-temporal trends of mortality in small areas of Southern Spain

Background: Most mortality atlases show static maps from count data aggregated over time. This procedure has several methodological problems and serious limitations for decision making in Public Health. The evaluation of health outcomes, including mortality, should be approached from a dynamic time perspective that is specific for each gender and age group. At the moment, researches in Spain do not provide a dynamic image of the population’s mortality status from a spatio-temporal point of view. The aim of this paper is to describe the spatial distribution of mortality from all causes in small areas of Andalusia (Southern Spain) and evolution over time from 1981 to 2006. Methods: A small-area ecological study was devised using the municipality as the unit for analysis. Two spatiotemporal hierarchical Bayesian models were estimated for each age group and gender. One of these was used to estimate the specific mortality rate, together with its time trends, and the other to estimate the specific rate ratio for each municipality compared with Spain as a whole. Results: More than 97% of the municipalities showed a diminishing or flat mortality trend in all gender and age groups. In 2006, over 95% of municipalities showed male and female mortality specific rates similar or significantly lower than Spanish rates for all age groups below 65. Systematically, municipalities in Western Andalusia showed significant male and female mortality excess from 1981 to 2006 only in age groups over 65. Conclusions: The study shows a dynamic geographical distribution of mortality, with a different pattern for each year, gender and age group. This information will contribute towards a reflection on the past, present and future of mortality in Andalusia.

Waiting for chikungunya fever in Argentina: spatio-temporal risk maps

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) transmission has been detected in America in 2013 and recently reached south up to Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay, bordering countries of Argentina. The presence of the mosquito Aedes aegyptiin half of the country together with the regional context drove us to make a rapid assessment of transmission risk. Temperature thresholds for vector breeding and for virus transmission, together with adult activity from the literature, were mapped on a monthly basis to estimate risk. Transmission of chikungunya byAe. aegyptiin the world was seen at monthly mean temperatures from 21-34ºC, with the majority occurring between 26-28ºC. In Argentina temperatures above 21ºC are observed since September in the northeast, expanding south until January and retreating back to the northeast in April. The maximum area under risk encompasses more than half the country and around 32 million inhabitants. Vector adult activity was registered where monthly means temperatures exceeded 13ºC, in the northeast all over the year and in the northern half from September-May. The models herein proposed show that conditions for transmission are already present. Considering the regional context and the historic inability to control dengue in the region, chikungunya fever illness seems unavoidable.

Profils de réponse immunitaire innée et adaptative lors d'infections aiguës par le virus de l'hépatite B, de la dengue et influenza A

Les réponses immunitaires innées et adaptatives déclenchées par une infection virale chez l'humain sont classiquement décrites comme une succession d'événements communs à tous les virus- la réponse innée, caractérisés par la libération rapide de cytokines antivirales et des chémokines, recrutant monocytes, NK et lymphocytes Τ vers le site d'infection, suivis par l'activation de l'immunité adaptative. Notre compréhension de la dynamique de ces mécanismes dynamiques est limitée chez l'humain. En effet, il existe peu d'études portant sur la cinétique et l'analyse quantitative de la réponse Τ spécifique au virus, parallèlement aux aspects plus qualitatifs de cette réponse (cytokines sériques produites lors de différentes infections virales, notamment). Méthode: Nous avons étudiés trois groupes de patients tous recrutés au cours de la phase aiguë d'une infection par le virus de la dengue (28 patients), le virus influenza A (13 patients) et le virus de l'hépatite Β (HBV) (13 patients). Nous avons analysé le profil d'activation (CD38, HLA-DR) et de prolifération (Ki-67, Bcl-2) des lymphocytes Τ CD8+ (par cytométrie de flux), de façon longitudinale à différents timepoints (depuis le début des symptômes jusqu'à rémission totale) en quantifiant 15 cytokines et chémokines (par Luminex multiplex biométrie immunoassay) dans le sérum des patients infectés. Résultats: Nous avons comparé le profil des réponses innée et adaptative chez les 3 types d'infection virales; les patients infectés par l'HBV ont une fréquence élevée de CD8+ spécifiques activés et proliférant ainsi que des taux sériques élevés de TNF-α et d'IFN-γ. Les patients infectés par le virus de la dengue et par le virus Influenza présentent quant à eux une activation CD 8+ moins intense mais une forte expression de la réponse innée, marquée par une élévation des cytokines IFN-α, IFN-γ, et TNF-α. De plus, une particularité des patients infectés par le virus de la dengue est de présenter une élévation marquée des cytokines immunorégulatrices (IL-10, IL- 1RA). Conclusion: Ces résultats permettent de montrer que la réponse immunologique consécutive à une infections virale spécifique est caractérisée par sa propre signature, tant au niveau de la production de cytokines/chemokines que de la quantité des lymphocytes Τ CD+8+ spécifiques activés et proliférantes. Ce travail contribue ainsi à une meilleure compréhension de l'immunité antivirale chez les humains, grâce à la description de la cinétique et de la quantification des cellules Τ CD8+ activées et des taux de cytokines dans chaque infection étudiée. Abstract Knowledge of innate and adaptive immune parameters triggered by viral infections is limited but important for understanding disease pathogenesis. We performed a comparative longitudinal analysis of serum cytokines/chemokines and of virus-activated CD8 Τ cells population in patients with acute dengue, influenza A or HBV infections from onset to disease recovery. We observed that each viral infection is characterized by its own signature of cytokines/chemokines production and size of activated and proliferating CD8 Τ cell pool. This is, to our knowledge, the first comparative longitudinal study of the immune response in human subjects in three distinct viral infections.

Contrasting spatio-temporal climatic niche dynamics during the eastern and western invasions of spotted knapweed in North America

Aim The spotted knapweed (Centaurea stoebe), a plant native to south-east and central Europe, is highly invasive in North America. We investigated the spatio-temporal climatic niche dynamics of the spotted knapweed in North America along two putative eastern and western invasion routes. We then considered the patterns observed in the light of historical, ecological and evolutionary factors. Location Europe and North America. Methods The niche characteristics of the east and west invasive populations of spotted knapweed in North America were determined from documented occurrences over 120 consecutive years (1890-2010). The 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles of values along temperature and precipitation gradients, as given by the two first axes of a principal component axis (PCA), were then calculated. We additionally measured the climatic dissimilarity between invaded and native niches using a multivariate environmental similarity surface (MESS) analysis. Results Along both invasion routes, the species established in regions with climatic conditions that were similar to those in the native range in Europe. An initial spread in ruderal habitats always preceded spread in (semi-)natural habitats. In the east, the niche gradually increased over time until it reached limits similar to the native niche. Conversely, in the west the niche abruptly expanded after an extended time lag into climates not occupied in the native range; only the native cold niche limit was conserved. Main conclusions Our study reveals that different niche dynamics have taken place during the eastern and western invasions. This pattern indicates different combinations of historical, ecological and evolutionary factors in the two ranges. We hypothesize that the lack of a well-developed transportation network in the west at the time of the introduction of spotted knapweed confined the species to a geographically and climatically isolated region. The invasion of dry rangelands may have been favoured during the agricultural transition in the 1930s by release from natural enemies, local adaptation and less competitive vegetation, but further experimental and molecular studies are needed to explain these contrasting niche patterns fully. Our study illustrates the need and benefit of applying large-scale, temporally explicit approaches to understanding biological invasions.

Spatio-temporal differentiation and sociality in spiders.

Species that differ in their social system, and thus in traits such as group size and dispersal timing, may differ in their use of resources along spatial, temporal, or dietary dimensions. The role of sociality in creating differences in habitat use is best explored by studying closely related species or socially polymorphic species that differ in their social system, but share a common environment. Here we investigate whether five sympatric Anelosimus spider species that range from nearly solitary to highly social differ in their use of space and in their phenology as a function of their social system. By studying these species in Serra do Japi, Brazil, we find that the more social species, which form larger, longer-lived colonies, tend to live inside the forest, where sturdier, longer lasting vegetation is likely to offer better support for their nests. The less social species, which form single-family groups, in contrast, tend to occur on the forest edge where the vegetation is less robust. Within these two microhabitats, species with longer-lived colonies tend to occupy the potentially more stable positions closer to the core of the plants, while those with smaller and shorter-lived colonies build their nests towards the branch tips. The species further separate in their use of common habitat due to differences in the timing of their reproductive season. These patterns of habitat use suggest that the degree of sociality can enable otherwise similar species to differ from one another in ways that may facilitate their co-occurrence in a shared environment, a possibility that deserves further consideration.

Spatio-temporal micromeasurements of the oxygen uptake in the developing chick embryo.

A method has been developed for the determination of the oxygen uptake of small areas (0.01 mm2) in an entire chick embryo cultured in vitro under defined metabolic conditions. It is based on the recordings of the spectral changes of the hemoglobin used as oxygen source for the respiring tissue (Barzu and Borza, 1967). Rapid scanning of the hemoglobin absorbance over the preparation allows a comparison of the O2 uptake of various regions. Values of the order of 10(-2) 1 O2 . min-2 are measured in less than 10 sec with a spatial resolution of 100 micron. The differentiation of embryonic tissue is not disturbed by the measurements. The O2 diffusion in the media and in the tissue has been analyzed by digital simulation. The O2 uptake of the Hensen's node was measured from embryos starting at the stage of definitive primitive streak (stage 4) up to the stage of 10 somites. It increases from 0.6 to 1.1 nl . h-1 with a marked acceleration between stages 4 and 5. The values corrected for the protein content of the Hensen's node at stage 4, 5, 6 and 8 are 32, 30 and 28 microliter . mg-1 . h-1 respectively. The first scanning results show different patterns of the O2 utake at the level of the Hensen's node and of the neural plate. At stage 6-7, the corrected O2 uptake is 30 microliter . mg-1 . h-1 for . the former and 43 microliter . mg-1 . h-1 for the latter.

Bilinear models for spatio-temporal point distribution analysis: application to extrapolation of left ventricular, biventricular and whole heart cardiac dynamics

In this work we describe the usage of bilinear statistical models as a means of factoring the shape variability into two components attributed to inter-subject variation and to the intrinsic dynamics of the human heart. We show that it is feasible to reconstruct the shape of the heart at discrete points in the cardiac cycle. Provided we are given a small number of shape instances representing the same heart atdifferent points in the same cycle, we can use the bilinearmodel to establish this. Using a temporal and a spatial alignment step in the preprocessing of the shapes, around half of the reconstruction errors were on the order of the axial image resolution of 2 mm, and over 90% was within 3.5 mm. From this, weconclude that the dynamics were indeed separated from theinter-subject variability in our dataset.