Risk-based methodology for parameter calibration of a reservoir flood control model

Flash floods are of major relevance in natural disaster management in the Mediterranean region. In many cases, the damaging effects of flash floods can be mitigated by adequate management of flood control reservoirs. This requires the development of suitable models for optimal operation of reservoirs. A probabilistic methodology for calibrating the parameters of a reservoir flood control model (RFCM) that takes into account the stochastic variability of flood events is presented. This study addresses the crucial problem of operating reservoirs during flood events, considering downstream river damages and dam failure risk as conflicting operation criteria. These two criteria are aggregated into a single objective of total expected damages from both the maximum released flows and stored volumes (overall risk index). For each selected parameter set the RFCM is run under a wide range of hydrologic loads (determined through Monte Carlo simulation). The optimal parameter set is obtained through the overall risk index (balanced solution) and then compared with other solutions of the Pareto front. The proposed methodology is implemented at three different reservoirs in the southeast of Spain. The results obtained show that the balanced solution offers a good compromise between the two main objectives of reservoir flood control management

Holocene flood frequency across the Central Alps

The frequency of large-scale heavy precipitation events in the European Alps is expected to undergo substantial changes with current climate change. Hence, knowledge about the past natural variability of floods caused by heavy precipitation constitutes important input for climate projections. We present a comprehensive Holocene (10,000 years) reconstruction of the flood frequency in the Central European Alps combining 15 lacustrine sediment records. These records provide an extensive catalog of flood deposits, which were generated by flood-induced underflows delivering terrestrial material to the lake floors. The multi-archive approach allows suppressing local weather patterns, such as thunderstorms, from the obtained climate signal. We reconstructed mainly late spring to fall events since ice cover and precipitation in form of snow in winter at high-altitude study sites do inhibit the generation of flood layers. We found that flood frequency was higher during cool periods, coinciding with lows in solar activity. In addition, flood occurrence shows periodicities that are also observed in reconstructions of solar activity from 14C and 10Be records (2500-3000, 900-1200, as well as of about 710, 500, 350, 208 (Suess cycle), 150, 104 and 87 (Gleissberg cycle) years). As atmospheric mechanism, we propose an expansion/shrinking of the Hadley cell with increasing/decreasing air temperature, causing dry/wet conditions in Central Europe during phases of high/low solar activity. Furthermore, differences between the flood patterns from the Northern Alps and the Southern Alps indicate changes in North Atlantic circulation. Enhanced flood occurrence in the South compared to the North suggests a pronounced southward position of the Westerlies and/or blocking over the northern North Atlantic, hence resembling a negative NAO state (most distinct from 4.2 to 2.4 kyr BP and during the Little Ice Age). South-Alpine flood activity therefore provides a qualitative record of variations in a paleo-NAO pattern during the Holocene. Additionally, increased South Alpine flood activity contrasts to low precipitation in tropical Central America (Cariaco Basin) on the Holocene and centennial time scale. This observation is consistent with a Holocene southward migration of the Atlantic circulation system, and hence of the ITCZ, driven by decreasing summer insolation in the Northern hemisphere, as well as with shorter-term fluctuations probably driven by solar activity.

Remote sensing applications to flood hydrology in Belize

The research compares the usefullness of four remote sensing information sources, these being LANDSAT photographic prints, LANDSAT computer compatible tapes, Metric Camera and SIR-A photographic prints. These sources provide evaluations of the catchment characteristics of the Belize and Sibun river basins in Central America. Map evaluations at 1:250,000 scale are compared to the results of the same scale, remotely sensed information sources. The values of catchment characteristics for both maps and LANDSAT prints are used in multiple regression analysis, providing flood flow formulae, after investigations to provide a suitable dependent variable discharge series are made for short term records. The use of all remotely sensed information sources in providing evaluations of catchment characteristics is discussed. LANDSAT prints and computer compatible tapes of a post flood scene are used to estimate flood distributions and volumes. These are compared to values obtained from unit hydrograph analysis, using the dependent discharge series and evaluate the probable losses from the Belize river to the floodplain, thereby assessing the accuracy of LANDSAT estimates. Information relating to flood behaviour is discussed in terms of basic image presentation as well as image processing. A cost analysis of the purchase and use of all materials is provided. Conclusions of the research indicate that LANDSAT print material may provide information suitable for regression analysis at levels of accuracy as great as those of topographic maps, that the differing information sources are uniquely applicable and that accurate estimates of flood volumes may be determined even by post flood imagery.

Detrital layer thickness in 12 varved sediment cores in Lake Mondsee and related flood events AD1976-2005

A succession of 23 sub-millimetre to maximum 12-mm-thick, mostly flood-triggered detrital layers, deposited between 1976 and 2005, was analysed in 12 varved surface sediment cores from meso-scale peri-alpine Lake Mondsee applying microfacies and high-resolution micro X-ray fluorescence analyses. Detailed intrabasin comparison of these layers enabled identification of (i) different source areas of detrital sediments, (ii) flood-triggered sediment flux and local erosion events, and (iii) seasonal differences of suspended flood sediment distribution within the lake basin. Additional calibration of the detrital layer record with river discharge and precipitation data reveals different empirical thresholds for flood layer deposition for different parts of the basin. At proximal locations detrital layer deposition requires floods exceeding a daily discharge of 40 m**3/s, whereas at a location 2 km more distal an hourly discharge of 80 m**3/s and at least 2 days of discharge above 40 m**3/s are necessary. Furthermore, we observe a better correlation between layer thickness and flood amplitude in the depocentre than in distal and proximal areas of the basin. Although our results are partly site-specific, the applied dual calibration approach is suitable to precisely decipher flood layer formation processes and, thereby, improve the interpretation of long flood time series from lake sediments.

Nitrite consumption and associated isotope changes during a river flood event in the Elbe river

In oceans, estuaries, and rivers, nitrification is an important nitrate source, and stable isotopes of nitrate are often used to investigate recycling processes (e.g. remineralisation, nitrification) in the water column. Nitrification is a two-step process, where ammonia is oxidised via nitrite to nitrate. Nitrite usually does not accumulate in natural environments, which makes it difficult to study the single isotope effect of ammonia oxidation or nitrite oxidation in natural systems. However, during an exceptional flood in the Elbe River in June 2013, we found a unique co-occurrence of ammonium, nitrite, and nitrate in the water column, returning towards normal summer conditions within 1 week. Over the course of the flood, we analysed the evolution of d15N-[NH4]+ and d15N-[NO2]- in the Elbe River. In concert with changes in suspended particulate matter (SPM) and d15N SPM, as well as nitrate concentration, d15N-NO3 - and d18O-[NO3] -, we calculated apparent isotope effects during net nitrite and nitrate consumption. During the flood event, > 97 % of total reactive nitrogen was nitrate, which was leached from the catchment area and appeared to be subject to assimilation. Ammonium and nitrite concentrations increased to 3.4 and 4.4 µmol/l, respectively, likely due to remineralisation, nitrification, and denitrification in the water column. d15N-[NH4]+ values increased up to 12 per mil, and d15N-[NO2]- ranged from -8.0 to -14.2 per mil. Based on this, we calculated an apparent isotope effect 15-epsilon of -10.0 ± 0.1 per mil during net nitrite consumption, as well as an isotope effect 15-epsilon of -4.0 ± 0.1 per mil and 18-epsilon of -5.3 ± 0.1 per mil during net nitrate consumption. On the basis of the observed nitrite isotope changes, we evaluated different nitrite uptake processes in a simple box model. We found that a regime of combined riparian denitrification and 22 to 36 % nitrification fits best with measured data for the nitrite concentration decrease and isotope increase.

Duration of a flood along a plant diversity gradient in the Jena Experiment (Main Experiment, June 2013)

The Jena Biodiversity Experiment is located on a Central European mesophilic floodplain on the banks of the Saale River (see further details below). In the main experiment, 82 grassland plots of 20 x 20 m were established from a pool of 60 species belonging to four functional groups (grasses, legumes, tall and small herbs). In May 2002, varying numbers of plant species from this species pool were sown in the plots to create a gradient of plant species richness (1, 2, 4, 8, 16 and 60 species) and functional richness (1, 2, 3, or 4 functional groups). Plots were maintained by bi-annual weeding and mowing. In June 2013, a natural 200-year flood event occurred at the field site. Rainfall in May 2013 in Jena was ~150mm, constituting >25% of annual precipitation at the site that year. Overall the flood affected the entire Elbe River Basin and much of Europe and was one of the largest natural flooding events in the past two centuries. The flood lasted for a total of 24 days at the site (30 May-24 June) and led to anaerobic soil conditions. Due to small topographical differences among the plots in the experiment (<1m), there was variation in the duration of flooding and the proportion of each plot that was flooded. This variation was well-distributed across the diversity gradient. To assess the importance of flood severity, the proportion of each plot that was flooded was estimated by eye (using five classes: 0 completely dry, 0.25 up to a quarter under water, 0.5 half, 0.75 up to three quarters under water, and 1 more than three quarters under water up to completely submerged). These values, for each of the 24 days that the flood lasted, were summed up to calculate a flooding index. The resulting flooding index is given for each plot of the Main Experiment.

Data-driven multivariate flood hazard modeling

The present Dissertation shows how recent statistical analysis tools and open datasets can be exploited to improve modelling accuracy in two distinct yet interconnected domains of flood hazard (FH) assessment. In the first Part, unsupervised artificial neural networks are employed as regional models for sub-daily rainfall extremes. The models aim to learn a robust relation to estimate locally the parameters of Gumbel distributions of extreme rainfall depths for any sub-daily duration (1-24h). The predictions depend on twenty morphoclimatic descriptors. A large study area in north-central Italy is adopted, where 2238 annual maximum series are available. Validation is performed over an independent set of 100 gauges. Our results show that multivariate ANNs may remarkably improve the estimation of percentiles relative to the benchmark approach from the literature, where Gumbel parameters depend on mean annual precipitation. Finally, we show that the very nature of the proposed ANN models makes them suitable for interpolating predicted sub-daily rainfall quantiles across space and time-aggregation intervals. In the second Part, decision trees are used to combine a selected blend of input geomorphic descriptors for predicting FH. Relative to existing DEM-based approaches, this method is innovative, as it relies on the combination of three characteristics: (1) simple multivariate models, (2) a set of exclusively DEM-based descriptors as input, and (3) an existing FH map as reference information. First, the methods are applied to northern Italy, represented with the MERIT DEM (∼90m resolution), and second, to the whole of Italy, represented with the EU-DEM (25m resolution). The results show that multivariate approaches may (a) significantly enhance flood-prone areas delineation relative to a selected univariate one, (b) provide accurate predictions of expected inundation depths, (c) produce encouraging results in extrapolation, (d) complete the information of imperfect reference maps, and (e) conveniently convert binary maps into continuous representation of FH.

Didanosine-loaded Chitosan Microspheres Optimized By Surface-response Methodology: A Modified Maximum Likelihood Classification" Approach Formulation For Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors."

Didanosine-loaded chitosan microspheres were developed applying a surface-response methodology and using a modified Maximum Likelihood Classification. The operational conditions were optimized with the aim of maintaining the active form of didanosine (ddI), which is sensitive to acid pH, and to develop a modified and mucoadhesive formulation. The loading of the drug within the chitosan microspheres was carried out by ionotropic gelation technique with sodium tripolyphosphate (TPP) as cross-linking agent and magnesium hydroxide (Mg(OH)2) to assure the stability of ddI. The optimization conditions were set using a surface-response methodology and applying the Maximum Likelihood Classification, where the initial chitosan concentration, TPP and ddI concentration were set as the independent variables. The maximum ddI-loaded in microspheres (i.e. 1433mg of ddI/g chitosan), was obtained with 2% (w/v) chitosan and 10% TPP. The microspheres depicted an average diameter of 11.42μm and ddI was gradually released during 2h in simulated enteric fluid.

Maximum inhibitory dilution of mouthwashes containing chlorhexidine and polyhexamethylene biguanide against salivary staphylococcus aureus

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present study was to determine the in vitro maximum inhibitory dilution (MID) of two chlorhexidinebased oral mouthwashes (CHX): Noplak®, Periogard®, and one polyhexamethylene biguanide-based mouthwash (PHMB): Sanifill Premium® against 28 field Staphylococcus aureus strains using the agar dilution method. MATERIALS AND METHODS: For each product, decimal dilutions ranging from 1/10 to 1/655,360 were prepared in distilled water and added to Mueller Hinton Agar culture medium. After homogenization, the culture medium was poured onto Petri dishes. Strains were inoculated using a Steers multipoint inoculator and dishes were incubated at 37ºC for 24hours. For reading, MID was considered as the maximum dilution of the mouthwash still capable of inhibiting microbial growth. RESULTS: Sanifill Premium® inhibited the growth of all strains at 1/40 dilution and of 1 strain at 1/80 dilution. Noplak® inhibited the growth of 23 strains at 1/640 dilution and of all 28 strains at 1/320 dilution. Periogard® showed inhibited growth of 7 strains at 1/640 dilution and of all 28 strains at 1/320 dilution. Data were submitted to Kruskal-Wallis statistical test, showing significant differences between the mouthwashes evaluated (p<0.05). No significant difference was found between Noplak® and Periogard® (p>0.05). Sanifill Premium® was the least effective (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: It was concluded that CHX-based mouthwashes present better antimicrobial activity against S. Aureus than the PHMB-based mouthwash.

Determination of the maximum inhibitory dilution of cetylpyridinium chloride-based mouthwashes against staphylococcus aureus: an in vitro study

The aim of this in vitro study was to determine the maximum inhibitory dilution (MID) of four cetylpyridinium chloride (CPC)-based mouthwashes: CPC+Propolis, CPC+Malva, CPC+Eucaliptol+Juá+Romã+Propolis (Natural Honey®) and CPC (Cepacol®), against 28 Staphylococcus aureus field strains, using the agar dilution method. Decimal dilutions ranging from 1/10 to 1/655,360 were prepared and added to Mueller Hinton Agar. Strains were inoculated using Steers multipoint inoculator. The inocula were seeded onto the surface of the culture medium in Petri dishes containing different dilutions of the mouthwashes. The dishes were incubated at 37ºC for 24 h. For readings, the MID was considered as the maximum dilution of mouthwash still capable of inhibiting microbial growth. The obtained data showed that CPC+Propolis had antimicrobial activity against 27 strains at 1/320 dilution and against all 28 strains at 1/160 dilution, CPC+Malva inhibited the growth of all 28 strains at 1/320 dilution, CPC+Eucaliptol+Juá+Romã+Propolis inhibited the growth of 2 strains at 1/640 dilution and all 28 strains at 1/320 dilution, and Cepacol® showed antimicrobial activity against 3 strains at 1/320 dilution and against all 28 strains at 1/160 dilution. Data were submitted to Kruskal-Wallis test, showing that the MID of Cepacol® was lower than that determined for the other products (p<0.05). In conclusion, CPC-mouthwashes showed antimicrobial activity against S. aureus and the addition of other substances to CPC improved its antimicrobial effect.

Características agronômicas do Panicum maximum cv. "Mombaça" submetido a níveis crescentes de fósforo

O objetivo deste experimento foi avaliar o efeito da adição de doses crescentes de P2O5 sobre a altura do dossel, o número de perfilhos e a produção de matéria seca de folhas e de colmos do capim-Mombaça, em diferentes idades. Foi conduzido um experimento implantado em um Nitossolo Vermelho Eutrófico. O delineamento experimental usado foi o de blocos completos casualizados, com quatro repetições, cinco doses de P2O5 (30, 60, 90, 120 e 150kg ha-1) e uma testemunha. Para a primeira e segunda coletas, observou-se o efeito linear do fósforo sobre o perfilhamento. Para a terceira e quarta coletas, os dados ajustaram-se ao modelo quadrático. A participação das lâminas foliares na matéria seca da parte aérea diminuiu com as doses de P2O5. Por outro lado, a participação de colmos aumentou com as doses de P2O5. A produção de matéria seca (MS) da parte aérea para primeira, segunda e terceira coletas respondeu de forma linear à aplicação de P2O5 observando-se um aumento estimado de 7, 15 e 19kg ha-1 de MS por kg ha-1 de P2O5, respectivamente. Para a quarta coleta, os dados ajustaram-se ao modelo quadrático de regressão, sendo a máxima produção, 8,3Mg ha-1 de MS, obtida com a aplicação de 103kg ha-1 de P2O5.