The probability of sale and price premiums in withdrawn auctioned properties

This paper examines the impact of the auction process of residential properties that whilst unsuccessful at auction sold subsequently. The empirical analysis considers both the probability of sale and the premium of the subsequent sale price over the guide price, reserve and opening bid. The findings highlight that the final achieved sale price is influenced by key price variables revealed both prior to and during the auction itself. Factors such as auction participation, the number of individual bidders and the number of bids are significant in a number of the alternative specifications.

The probability of sale and price premiums in withdrawn auctioned properties

This paper examines the impact of the auction process of residential properties that whilst unsuccessful at auction sold subsequently. The empirical analysis considers both the probability of sale and the premium of the subsequent sale price over the guide price, reserve and opening bid. The findings highlight that the final achieved sale price is influenced by key price variables revealed both prior to and during the auction itself. Factors such as auction participation, the number of individual bidders and the number of bids are significant in a number of the alternative specifications.

Improving the estimation of probability of bidder participation in procurement auctions

Anticipating the number and identity of bidders has significant influence in many theoretical results of the auction itself and bidders' bidding behaviour. This is because when a bidder knows in advance which specific bidders are likely competitors, this knowledge gives a company a head start when setting the bid price. However, despite these competitive implications, most previous studies have focused almost entirely on forecasting the number of bidders and only a few authors have dealt with the identity dimension qualitatively. Using a case study with immediate real-life applications, this paper develops a method for estimating every potential bidder's probability of participating in a future auction as a function of the tender economic size removing the bias caused by the contract size opportunities distribution. This way, a bidder or auctioner will be able to estimate the likelihood of a specific group of key, previously identified bidders in a future tender.

Prediction and probability of neonatal outcome in isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia using multiple ultrasound parameters

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Theoretical estimates of consumable food and probability of acquiring food in larvae of Chrysomya putoria (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

An indirect estimate of consumable food and probability of acquiring food in a blowfly species, Chrysomya putoria, is presented. This alternative procedure combines three distinct models to estimate consumable food in the context of the exploitative competition experienced by immature individuals in blowfly populations. The relevant parameters are derived from data for pupal weight and survival and estimates of density-independent larval mortality in twenty different larval densities. As part of this procedure, the probability of acquiring food per unit of time and the time taken to exhaust the food supply are also calculated. The procedure employed here may be valuable for estimations in insects whose immature stages develop inside the food substrate, where it is difficult to partial out confounding effects such as separation of faeces. This procedure also has the advantage of taking into account the population dynamics of immatures living under crowded conditions, which are particularly characteristic of blowflies and other insects as well.

Survival probability of large rapidity gaps in a QCD model with a dynamical infrared mass scale

We compute the survival probability {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} of large rapidity gaps (LRG) in a QCD based eikonal model with a dynamical gluon mass, where this dynamical infrared mass scale represents the onset of nonperturbative contributions to the diffractive hadron-hadron scattering. Since rapidity gaps can occur in the case of Higgs boson production via fusion of electroweak bosons, we focus on WW -> H fusion processes and show that the resulting {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} decreases with the increase of the energy of the incoming hadrons; in line with the available experimental data for LRG. We obtain {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} = 27.6 +/- 7.8% (18.2 +/- 17.0%) at Tevatron (CERN-LHC) energy for a dynamical gluon mass m(g) = 400 MeV. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic evaluation of the probability of pregnancy at 14 months for Nellore heifers

To estimate the heritability for the probability that yearling heifers would become pregnant, we analyzed the records of 11,487 Nellore animals that participated in breeding seasons at three farms in the Brazilian states of São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul. All heifers were exposed to a bull at the age of about 14 mo. The probability of pregnancy was analyzed as a categorical trait, with a value of 1 (success) assigned to heifers that were diagnosed pregnant by rectal palpation about 60 d after the end of the breeding season of 90 d and a value of 0 (failure) assigned to those that were not pregnant at that time. The estimate of heritability, obtained by Method 9, was 0.57 with standard error of 0.01. The EPD was predicted using a maximum a posteriori threshold method and was expressed as deviations from 50% probability. The range in EPD was -24.50 to 24.55%, with a mean of 0.78% and a SD of 7.46%. We conclude that EPD for probability of pregnancy can be used to select heifers with a higher probability of being fertile. However, it is mainly recommended for the selection of bulls for the production of precocious daughters because the accuracy of prediction is higher for bulls, depending on their number of daughters.

Local data fusion algorithm for fire detection through mobile robot

Multisensor data fusion is a technique that combines the readings of multiple sensors to detect some phenomenon. Data fusion applications are numerous and they can be used in smart buildings, environment monitoring, industry and defense applications. The main goal of multisensor data fusion is to minimize false alarms and maximize the probability of detection based on the detection of multiple sensors. In this paper a local data fusion algorithm based on luminosity, temperature and flame for fire detection is presented. The data fusion approach was embedded in a low cost mobile robot. The prototype test validation has indicated that our approach can detect fire occurrence. Moreover, the low cost project allow the development of robots that could be discarded in their fire detection missions. © 2013 IEEE.

Probability of remission of juvenile idiopathic arthritis following treatment with steroid joint injection

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Absence of detection of xanthomonas axonopodis pv. malvacearum in cotton seeds used in the Northeast Region of Mato Grosso do Sul in a three-based crop season study

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Low mass enhanced probability of pion in hadronic matter due to its Landau cut contributions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Use of the probability of stone formation (PSF) score to assess stone forming risk and treatment response in a cohort of Brazilian stone formers

Introduction: The aim was to confirm that PSF (probability of stone formation) changed appropriately following medical therapy on recurrent stone formers.Materials and Methods: Data were collected on 26 Brazilian stone-formers. A baseline 24-hour urine collection was performed prior to treatment. Details of the medical treatment initiated for stone-disease were recorded. A PSF calculation was performed on the 24 hour urine sample using the 7 urinary parameters required: voided volume, oxalate, calcium, urate, pH, citrate and magnesium. A repeat 24-hour urine sample was performed for PSF calculation after treatment. Comparison was made between the PSF scores before and during treatment.Results: At baseline, 20 of the 26 patients (77%) had a high PSF score (> 0.5). Of the 26 patients, 17 (65%) showed an overall reduction in their PSF profiles with a medical treatment regimen. Eleven patients (42%) changed from a high risk (PSF > 0.5) to a low risk (PSF < 0.5) and 6 patients reduced their risk score but did not change risk category. Six (23%) patients remained in a high risk category (> 0.5) during both assessments.Conclusions: The PSF score reduced following medical treatment in the majority of patients in this cohort.

Distance software: design and analysis of distance sampling surveys for estimating population size

1. Distance sampling is a widely used technique for estimating the size or density of biological populations. Many distance sampling designs and most analyses use the software Distance. 2. We briefly review distance sampling and its assumptions, outline the history, structure and capabilities of Distance, and provide hints on its use. 3. Good survey design is a crucial prerequisite for obtaining reliable results. Distance has a survey design engine, with a built-in geographic information system, that allows properties of different proposed designs to be examined via simulation, and survey plans to be generated. 4. A first step in analysis of distance sampling data is modeling the probability of detection. Distance contains three increasingly sophisticated analysis engines for this: conventional distance sampling, which models detection probability as a function of distance from the transect and assumes all objects at zero distance are detected; multiple-covariate distance sampling, which allows covariates in addition to distance; and mark–recapture distance sampling, which relaxes the assumption of certain detection at zero distance. 5. All three engines allow estimation of density or abundance, stratified if required, with associated measures of precision calculated either analytically or via the bootstrap. 6. Advanced analysis topics covered include the use of multipliers to allow analysis of indirect surveys (such as dung or nest surveys), the density surface modeling analysis engine for spatial and habitat-modeling, and information about accessing the analysis engines directly from other software. 7. Synthesis and applications. Distance sampling is a key method for producing abundance and density estimates in challenging field conditions. The theory underlying the methods continues to expand to cope with realistic estimation situations. In step with theoretical developments, state-of- the-art software that implements these methods is described that makes the methods accessible to practicing ecologists.

High Rates of Detection of Respiratory Viruses in Tonsillar Tissues from Children with Chronic Adenotonsillar Disease

Chronic tonsillar diseases are an important health problem, leading to large numbers of surgical procedures worldwide. Little is known about pathogenesis of these diseases. In order to investigate the role of respiratory viruses in chronic adenotonsillar diseases, we developed a cross-sectional study to determine the rates of viral detections of common respiratory viruses detected by TaqMan real time PCR (qPCR) in nasopharyngeal secretions, tonsillar tissues and peripheral blood from 121 children with chronic tonsillar diseases, without symptoms of acute respiratory infections. At least one respiratory virus was detected in 97.5% of patients. The viral co-infection rate was 69.5%. The most frequently detected viruses were human adenovirus in 47.1%, human enterovirus in 40.5%, human rhinovirus in 38%, human bocavirus in 29.8%, human metapneumovirus in 17.4% and human respiratory syncytial virus in 15.7%. Results of qPCR varied widely between sample sites: human adenovirus, human bocavirus and human enterovirus were predominantly detected in tissues, while human rhinovirus was more frequently detected in secretions. Rates of virus detection were remarkably high in tonsil tissues: over 85% in adenoids and close to 70% in palatine tonsils. In addition, overall virus detection rates were higher in more hypertrophic than in smaller adenoids (p = 0.05), and in the particular case of human enteroviruses, they were detected more frequently (p = 0.05) in larger palatine tonsils than in smaller ones. While persistence/latency of DNA viruses in tonsillar tissues has been documented, such is not the case of RNA viruses. Respiratory viruses are highly prevalent in adenoids and palatine tonsils of patients with chronic tonsillar diseases, and persistence of these viruses in tonsils may stimulate chronic inflammation and play a role in the pathogenesis of these diseases.