Alternative antecedents, probabilities, and the suppression of fallacies in Wason's selection task

Three experiments examined the influence of a second rule on the pattern of card selections on Wason's selection task. In Experiment 1 participants received a version of the task with a single test rule or one of two versions of the task with the same original test rule together with a second rule. The probability of q was manipulated in the two-rules conditions by varying the size of the antecedent set in the second rule. The results showed a significant suppression of q card and not-p card selections in the alternative-rule conditions, but no difference as a function of antecedent set size. In Experiment 2 the size of the antecendent set in the two-rules conditions was manipulated using the context of a computer printing double-sided cards. The results showed a significant reduction of q card selections in the two-rules conditions, but no effect of p set size. In Experiment 3 the scenario accompanying the rule was manipulated, and it specified a single alternative antecedent or a number of alternative antecedents. The q card selection rates were not affected by the scenario manipulation but again were suppressed by the presence of a second rule. Our results suggest that people make inferences about the unseen side of the cards when engaging with the task and that these inferences are systematically influenced by the presence of a second rule, but are not influenced by the probabilistic characteristics of this rule. These findings are discussed in the context of decision theoretic views of selection task performance (Oaksford Chater, 1994).

Optimizing the balance between false positive and false negative error probabilities of confirmatory methods for the detection of veterinary drug residues

GC-MS data on veterinary drug residues in bovine urine are used for controlling the illegal practice of fattening cattle. According to current detection criteria, peak patterns of preferably four ions should agree within 10 or 20% from a corresponding standard pattern. These criteria are rigid, rather arbitrary and do not match daily practice. A new model, based on multivariate modeling of log peak abundance ratios, provides a theoretical basis for the identification of analytes and optimizes the balance between the avoidance of false positives and false negatives. The performance of the model is demonstrated on data provided by five laboratories, each supplying GC-MS measurements on the detection of clenbuterol, dienestrol and 19 beta-nortestosterone in urine. The proposed model shows a better performance than confirmation by using the current criteria and provides a statistical basis for inspection criteria in terms of error probabilities.

Impact of the number of users on error probabilities in multiuser diversity systems

Multiuser diversity gain has been investigated well in terms of a system capacity formulation in the literature. In practice, however, designs on multiuser systems with nonzero error rates require a relationship between the error rates and the number of users within a cell. Considering a best-user scheduling, where the user with the best channel condition is scheduled to transmit per scheduling interval, our focus is on the uplink. We assume that each user communicates with the base station through a single-input multiple-output channel. We derive a closed-form expression for the average BER, and analyze how the average BER goes to zero asymptotically as the number of users increases for a given SNR. Note that the analysis of average BER even in SI SO multiuser diversity systems has not been done with respect to the number of users for a given SNR. Our analysis can be applied to multiuser diversity systems with any number of antennas.

Electron impact excitation of Mg VIII: Collision strengths, transition probabilities and theoretical EUV and soft X-ray line intensities for Mg VIII

Context: Mg VIII emission lines are observed in a range of astronomical objects such as the Sun, other cool stars and in the coronal line region of Seyfert galaxies. Under coronal conditions Mg VIII emits strongly in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and soft X-ray spectral regions which makes it an ideal ion for plasma diagnostics.

Aims. Two theoretical atomic models, consisting of 125 fine structure levels, are developed for the Mg VIII ion. The 125 levels arise from the 2s(2)2p, 2s(2)p2, 2p(3), 2s(2)3s, 2s(2)3p, 2s(2)3d, 2s2p3s, 2s2p3p, 2s2p3d, 2p(2)3s, 2p(2)3p and 2p(2)3d configurations. Electron impact excitation collision strengths and radiative transition probabilities are calculated for both Mg VIII models, compared with existing data, and the best model selected to generate a set of theoretical emission line intensities. The EUV lines, covering 312-790 angstrom, are compared with existing solar spectra (SERTS-89 and SUMER), while the soft X-ray transitions (69-97 angstrom) are examined for potential density diagnostic line ratios and also compared with the limited available solar and stellar observational data.

Methods. The R-matrix codes Breit-Pauli RMATRXI and RMATRXII are utilised, along with the PSTGF code, to calculate the collision strengths for two Mg VIII models. Collision strengths are averaged over a Maxwellian distribution to produce the corresponding effective collision strengths for use in astrophysical applications. Transition probabilities are also calculated using the CIV3 atomic structure code. The best data are then incorporated into the modelling code CLOUDY and line intensities generated for a range of electron temperatures and densities appropriate to solar and stellar coronal plasmas.

Results. The present effective collision strengths are compared with two previous calculations. Good levels of agreement are found with the most recent, but there are large differences with the other for forbidden transitions. The resulting line intensities compare favourably with the observed values from the SERTS-89 and SUMER spectra. Theoretical soft X-ray emission lines are presented and several density diagnostic line ratios examined, which are in reasonable agreement with the limited observational data available.

Oscillator strengths and transition probabilities for the W xlv ion

In this paper we present oscillator strengths and transition probabilities for W xlv transitions between levels arising from configurations 3d¹⁰4s²,4p²,4d², 3d¹⁰4k4l (k = s,p,d,f and l = p,d,f), 3d⁹4s²4l (l = p,d,f) and 3d⁹4s4p². The model used to calculate these contained all configurations which can be constructed from the available orbitals (up to n = 4), with either a 3d¹⁰ or 3d⁹ core. The calculations were performed with the configuration interaction CIV3 program with the inclusion of relativistic effects achieved through the use of the Breit-Pauli approximation. We compare our ab initio energy levels, oscillator strengths and transition rates with other experimental and theoretical values available in the literature. There is generally good agreement when only levels with 3d¹⁰ cores are considered. The literature is sparse for levels in which the 3d-subshell is opened: for the majority of the fine-structure lines considered, there is either no comparison data available or substantial differences are found. This paper also investigates how the inclusion of relativistic effects can result in a significant redistribution of the oscillator strength from the LS calculations.

Eliciting and estimating valid subjective probabilities: An experimental investigation of the Exchangeability Method.

Using a laboratory experiment, we investigate whether incentive compatibility affects subjective probabilities elicited via the exchangeability method (EM), an elicitation technique consisting of several chained questions. We hypothesize that subjects who are aware of the chaining strategically behave and provide invalid subjective probabilities, while subjects who are not aware of the chaining state their real beliefs and provide valid subjective probabilities. The validity of subjective probabilities is investigated using de Finetti's notion of coherence, under which probability estimates are valid if and only if they obey all axioms of probability theory.
Four experimental treatments are designed and implemented. Subjects are divided into two initial treatment groups: in the first, they are provided with real monetary incentives, and in the second, they are not. Each group is further sub-divided into two treatment groups, in the first, the chained structure of the experimental design is made clear to the subjects, while, in the second, the chained structure is hidden by randomizing the elicitation questions.
Our results suggest that subjects provided with monetary incentives and randomized questions provide valid subjective probabilities because they are not aware of the chaining which undermines the incentive compatibility of the exchangeability method.

Inference in Polytrees with Sets of Probabilities

Inferences in directed acyclic graphs associated with probability intervals and sets of probabilities are NP-hard, even for polytrees. We propose: 1) an improvement on Tessem’s A/R algorithm for inferences on polytrees associated with probability intervals; 2) a new algorithm for approximate inferences based on local search; 3) branch-and-bound algorithms that combine the previous techniques. The first two algorithms produce complementary approximate solutions, while branch-and-bound procedures can generate either exact or approximate solutions. We report improvements on existing techniques for inference with probability sets and intervals, in some cases reducing computational effort by several orders of magnitude.

Multilinear and Integer Programming for Markov Decision Processes with Imprecise Probabilities

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are extensively used to encode sequences of decisions with probabilistic effects. Markov Decision Processes with Imprecise Probabilities (MDPIPs) encode sequences of decisions whose effects are modeled using sets of probability distributions. In this paper we examine the computation of Γ-maximin policies for MDPIPs using multilinear and integer programming. We discuss the application of our algorithms to “factored” models and to a recent proposal, Markov Decision Processes with Set-valued Transitions (MDPSTs), that unifies the fields of probabilistic and “nondeterministic” planning in artificial intelligence research. 

Partially Ordered Preferences in Decision Trees: Computing Strategies with Imprecision in Probabilities

Partially ordered preferences generally lead to choices that do not abide by standard expected utility guidelines; often such preferences are revealed by imprecision in probability values. We investigate five criteria for strategy selection in decision trees with imprecision in probabilities: “extensive” Γ-maximin and Γ-maximax, interval dominance, maximality and E-admissibility. We present algorithms that generate strategies for all these criteria; our main contribution is an algorithm for Eadmissibility that runs over admissible strategies rather than over sets of probability distributions.

Cross sectional default probabilities in european corporate bonds

This study attempts to identify basis-trading opportunities in the European banking sector by comparing two different measures for the market’s assessment of risk: market-observed CDS spreads and model-implied Z-spreads. Using a sample of 10 banks, over a period of 3 years following the European banking crisis, it can be concluded that there were arbitrage opportunities in the sector, as evidenced by the derived negative bases.