Probabilistic constraint reasoning

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Informática, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

A short review of the previous and current epidemiological situation of schistosomiasis in China

Schistosomiasis japonica has long been endemic in the People's Republic of China. In the 1950s, the number of the infected persons was estimated at 10 million; infected snail habitats were estimated at more than 14 billion square metres and infected cattle at 1.2 million. After schistosomiasis control measures were carried out, it was a great success. According to the survey of 1989, infected persons were estimated at 0.95 million; infected snails at 3.47 billion and infected cattle at about 0.1 million.These results compared with those of the 1950s show big reductions in prevalence rates 90.5%, 75.2% and 91.6%, respectively. At present, the disease is a threat in the marshland and lake regions and the high mountainous regions. To maintain the success achieved in effective control and to bring the yet endemic marshland and lake regions and mountainous areas under control are hard and long-term tasks confronting the People's Republic of China.

From Strategic Planning to Development Initiatives: a first reflection on the situation of Lisbon and Barcelona

MARQUES, B.P. (2014) From Strategic Planning to Development Initiatives: a first reflection on the situation of Lisbon and Barcelona, in 20th APDR Congress Proceddings, APDR and UÉvora, Évora, pp. 850-857, ISBN 978-989-8780-01-0.

Probabilistic constraint reasoning with Monte Carlo integration to robot localization

This work studies the combination of safe and probabilistic reasoning through the hybridization of Monte Carlo integration techniques with continuous constraint programming. In continuous constraint programming there are variables ranging over continuous domains (represented as intervals) together with constraints over them (relations between variables) and the goal is to find values for those variables that satisfy all the constraints (consistent scenarios). Constraint programming “branch-and-prune” algorithms produce safe enclosures of all consistent scenarios. Special proposed algorithms for probabilistic constraint reasoning compute the probability of sets of consistent scenarios which imply the calculation of an integral over these sets (quadrature). In this work we propose to extend the “branch-and-prune” algorithms with Monte Carlo integration techniques to compute such probabilities. This approach can be useful in robotics for localization problems. Traditional approaches are based on probabilistic techniques that search the most likely scenario, which may not satisfy the model constraints. We show how to apply our approach in order to cope with this problem and provide functionality in real time.

Distribution of hepatitis B infection in Brazil: the epidemiological situation at the beginning of the 21 st century

Abstract Brazil was formerly considered a country with intermediate hepatitis B endemicity, with large heterogeneity between Brazilian regions and areas of high prevalence, especially in the Amazon basin. Systematic vaccination of children was initiated in 1998. Between 2004 and 2009, a large population-based study reported decreased prevalence in all regions of Brazil. This review analyzed the current hepatitis B epidemiological situation in Brazil through a systematic search of the scientific literature in MEDLINE, LILACS, and CAPES thesis database, as well as disease notifications to the Information System for Notifiable Diseases. The search strategy identified 87 articles and 13 theses, resulting in 100 total publications. The most recent results indicate reduced hepatitis B prevalence nationwide, classifying Brazil as having low endemicity. Most studies showed HBV carrier prevalence less than 1%. However, there are still isolated regions with increased prevalence, particularly the Amazon, as well as specific groups, such as homeless people in large cities and isolated Afro-descendant communities in the center of the country. This review alsao detected successful vaccination coverage reported in a few studies around the country. The prevalence of anti-HBs alone ranged from 50% to 90%. However, isolated and distant localities still have low coverage rates. This review reinforces the downward trend of hepatitis B prevalence in Brazil and the need to intensify vaccination strategies for young people and adults in specific regions with persisting higher HBV infection prevalence.

Implementation of a probabilistic based framework for safety assessment of existing timber elements

The assessment of existing timber structures is often limited to information obtained from non or semi destructive testing, as mechanical testing is in many cases not possible due to its destructive nature. Therefore, the available data provides only an indirect measurement of the reference mechanical properties of timber elements, often obtained through empirical based correlations. Moreover, the data must result from the combination of different tests, as to provide a reliable source of information for a structural analysis. Even if general guidelines are available for each typology of testing, there is still a need for a global methodology allowing to combine information from different sources and infer upon that information in a decision process. In this scope, the present work presents the implementation of a probabilistic based framework for safety assessment of existing timber elements. This methodology combines information gathered in different scales and follows a probabilistic framework allowing for the structural assessment of existing timber elements with possibility of inference and updating of its mechanical properties, through Bayesian methods. The probabilistic based framework is based in four main steps: (i) scale of information; (ii) measurement data; (iii) probability assignment; and (iv) structural analysis. In this work, the proposed methodology is implemented in a case study. Data was obtained through a multi-scale experimental campaign made to old chestnut timber beams accounting correlations of non and semi-destructive tests with mechanical properties. Finally, different inference scenarios are discussed aiming at the characterization of the safety level of the elements.

Environment, health and safety policy in small construction sites: an analysis of the situation in Brazil

This paper analyzes the safety, environmental and occupational health of workers in the small construction industry in Brazil. In this sector there are still many unsafe practices, which are very common in small work sites. We used a qualitative approach to understand these problems by long interviews with people who work directly in small construction sites, including occupational physicians, civil engineers, safety engineers, safety technicians, general foremen, construction workers, labor unionists and auditors. This paper aims to demonstrate that the "invisibility" of the small sites workers makes them less safe and therefore more prone to accidents, also weakening their health. The results show that small constructions workers are less visible to society and supervision because of their short periods of work. Therefore, they are also uncovered to the rigorous applicability of principles of safety and accident prevention. Thus, it has been seen in this field of work a precarious application of NR - 18, which was specifically made for the construction sites and it needs simplification to meet normative characteristics of small construction sites. In the State of Rio de Janeiro, some laws on small sites were recently created and implemented. This study concludes that the rules to work are not being taken as seriously as the legislation determinates, remaining practically unknown by many professionals, from the plot command, supervisors, engineers, architects and technicians who work on construction sites. This ignorance creates space for the lack of safety and consequently to accidents, leading to by weakness in the workers health. Therefore, the work process needs to be modified, the safety regulation must be disseminated through safer practices, promoting employee health and ensure that the work of small sites can be visible, especially ensuring the construction workers health and safety.

An innovative framework for probabilistic-based structural assessment with an application to existing reinforced concrete structures

A novel framework for probabilistic-based structural assessment of existing structures, which combines model identification and reliability assessment procedures, considering in an objective way different sources of uncertainty, is presented in this paper. A short description of structural assessment applications, provided in literature, is initially given. Then, the developed model identification procedure, supported in a robust optimization algorithm, is presented. Special attention is given to both experimental and numerical errors, to be considered in this algorithm convergence criterion. An updated numerical model is obtained from this process. The reliability assessment procedure, which considers a probabilistic model for the structure in analysis, is then introduced, incorporating the results of the model identification procedure. The developed model is then updated, as new data is acquired, through a Bayesian inference algorithm, explicitly addressing statistical uncertainty. Finally, the developed framework is validated with a set of reinforced concrete beams, which were loaded up to failure in laboratory.

“It’s a complicated situation”. Harm in everyday experiences with technology. A qualitative study with school-aged children

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Educação (Especialidade de Tecnologia Educativa)

Upgrade of an industrial building: BIM model of the as-built situation and evaluation of modifications

Dissertação de mestrado integrado in Civil Engineering

Current situation on the occurrence of mycotoxins and toxigenic fungi in Portugal

Mycotoxins are secondary metabolites produced by filamentous fungi that are toxic for humans and animals in small amounts and that are found worldwide in a large number of agricultural commodities. They are usually ingested involuntarily, when contaminated plant products are consumed, and represent a great risk for public health. Therefore, governments throughout the world have imposed strict legal limits for their levels in food and feed products in order to reduce potential health risks for consumers. Despite of its ubiquity, the mycotoxin problem is mainly dependent on regional factors, such as the mycotoxigenic characteristics of the local mycoflora, the local climate conditions, and the local agricultural practices. For this reason, a constant vigilance from local governmental food safety agencies and from the local researcher community is needed. This communication will review the current situation on the occurrence of mycotoxigenic fungi in some Portuguese cultures, such as wine grapes, corn and dried fruits. Particular attention will be given to the incidence of mycotoxigenic Aspergillus strains in those cultures and to the levels of ochratoxin A, aflatoxins, cyclopiazonic acid and fumonisin B2 produced. Data will be discussed taking into account the geographical origin of the isolates and the particular climate conditions of each sampling region. An updated review on the levels of the main mycotoxins found in local products and in imported commodities will also be presented.

Hierarchical modelling of timber reference properties using probabilistic methods: Maximum Likelihood Method, Bayesian Methods and Probability Networks

In recent decades, an increased interest has been evidenced in the research on multi-scale hierarchical modelling in the field of mechanics, and also in the field of wood products and timber engineering. One of the main motivations for hierar-chical modelling is to understand how properties, composition and structure at lower scale levels may influence and be used to predict the material properties on a macroscopic and structural engineering scale. This chapter presents the applicability of statistic and probabilistic methods, such as the Maximum Likelihood method and Bayesian methods, in the representation of timber’s mechanical properties and its inference accounting to prior information obtained in different importance scales. These methods allow to analyse distinct timber’s reference properties, such as density, bending stiffness and strength, and hierarchically consider information obtained through different non, semi or destructive tests. The basis and fundaments of the methods are described and also recommendations and limitations are discussed. The methods may be used in several contexts, however require an expert’s knowledge to assess the correct statistic fitting and define the correlation arrangement between properties.

Métodos para el análisis de programas probabilistas y no-deterministas utilizando probadores de teoremas. Methods for the analysis of probabilistic and nondeterministic programs using theorem provers.

La verificación y el análisis de programas con características probabilistas es una tarea necesaria del quehacer científico y tecnológico actual. El éxito y su posterior masificación de las implementaciones de protocolos de comunicación a nivel hardware y soluciones probabilistas a problemas distribuidos hacen más que interesante el uso de agentes estocásticos como elementos de programación. En muchos de estos casos el uso de agentes aleatorios produce soluciones mejores y más eficientes; en otros proveen soluciones donde es imposible encontrarlas por métodos tradicionales. Estos algoritmos se encuentran generalmente embebidos en múltiples mecanismos de hardware, por lo que un error en los mismos puede llegar a producir una multiplicación no deseada de sus efectos nocivos.Actualmente el mayor esfuerzo en el análisis de programas probabilísticos se lleva a cabo en el estudio y desarrollo de herramientas denominadas chequeadores de modelos probabilísticos. Las mismas, dado un modelo finito del sistema estocástico, obtienen de forma automática varias medidas de performance del mismo. Aunque esto puede ser bastante útil a la hora de verificar programas, para sistemas de uso general se hace necesario poder chequear especificaciones más completas que hacen a la corrección del algoritmo. Incluso sería interesante poder obtener automáticamente las propiedades del sistema, en forma de invariantes y contraejemplos.En este proyecto se pretende abordar el problema de análisis estático de programas probabilísticos mediante el uso de herramientas deductivas como probadores de teoremas y SMT solvers. Las mismas han mostrado su madurez y eficacia en atacar problemas de la programación tradicional. Con el fin de no perder automaticidad en los métodos, trabajaremos dentro del marco de "Interpretación Abstracta" el cual nos brinda un delineamiento para nuestro desarrollo teórico. Al mismo tiempo pondremos en práctica estos fundamentos mediante implementaciones concretas que utilicen aquellas herramientas.

Micro-empresa y capacidad empresarial en Córdoba: situación actual y perspectivas. Microenterprise and entrepreneurship in Córdoba: present situation and perpectives.

Las transformaciones del mercado laboral, tanto de los países desarrollados como en vías de desarrollo, han sido importantes en las últimas décadas. Una de sus manifestaciones es la creciente expansión del trabajo organizado en torno a los micro-emprendimientos. Las investigaciones existentes a nivel internacional indican que la capacidad empresarial que debe poseer el emprendedor es un factor que resulta crucial para el desarrollo y sostenimiento de estas formas de producción. Por tal razón, el estudio de este aspecto y de su relación con los micro-emprendimientos es un tema que está concitando creciente atención y sobre el que existe un cuerpo teórico de literatura específica que ha comenzado a transferirse a los países en vías de desarrollo, donde la discusión es aún incipiente. Los estudios han observado que los micro-emprendimientos están normalmente muy ligados a la familia, esto hace que su desenvolvimiento y evolución resulten afectados por las características particulares de cada hogar. Se trata de un complejo conjunto de situaciones sociales que se generan a partir de estas nuevas formas de organización del trabajo, donde resulta dificultoso distinguir entre el micro-emprendimiento y la figura del emprendedor, lo cual ha llevado a que muchas veces las políticas públicas, sensibles a la necesidad de apoyar a los grupos poblacionales vulnerables, adquirieran un sesgo pro-pobre, en detrimento de su objetivo principal de incentivar el desarrollo sustentable de pequeñas unidades productivas. El equipo de investigación autor del presente proyecto concluyó recientemente, en el marco de un proyecto PICTOR II, un primer estudio sobre la temática de los micro-emprendimientos en Córdoba, analizando los factores que ayudan a comprender mejor las razones por las que algunos emprendedores alcanzan un mayor éxito que otros, a partir del cual surgieron nuevos interrogantes sobre el rol de la política pública en esta materia, a los que se intentará dar respuesta en esta oportunidad. Más concretamente, en esta investigación se abordarán, ahora con profundidad, diversas cuestiones importantes que analizan el vínculo entre la figura del emprendedor con el micro-emprendimiento que posee y con el efecto general de las políticas públicas en el sector. Uno de los temas es determinar hasta qué punto el comentado sesgo "pro-pobre" estuvo presente en el caso de las políticas públicas aplicadas en Córdoba y qué consecuencias tuvo sobre los micro-emprendimientos y su sustentabilidad. Este aspecto está directamente ligado a la necesidad de discernir acerca de si el fundamento teórico de las políticas públicas diferencia adecuadamente entre el micro-emprendedor y la micro-empresa. Otra importante cuestión a abordar es la de indagar sobre la relación entre capacidad empresarial, capital humano y nivel socio-económico del emprendedor. Resultará de sumo interés identificar los factores que estimulan e inhiben las manifestaciones de capacidad empresarial individual, y establecer su relación con las posibilidades de sustentabilidad del micro-emprendimiento, lo cual debería ser tomado en cuenta por las políticas públicas. El caso de los individuos que se convirtieron en micro-emprendedores como una estrategia para superar la situación de desempleo en que se encontraban, es un tema que será examinado en especial y a la luz de la performance observada del emprendimiento. Serán fuentes primarias de información la Encuesta llevada a cabo en el proyecto PICTOR II arriba mencionado y una re-encuesta a los micro-emprendedores que fueron oportunamente entrevistados. A ello se agregará un estudio de casos de emprendimientos muy exitosos. Los datos de fuentes secundarias surgirán del INDEC, de organismos oficiales y de instituciones no gubernamentales. Los principales métodos y herramientas de análisis a utilizar son los que proporcionan la Estadística, la Econometría y la Micro-economía.