793 resultados para Probabilistic Aggregation Criteria
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Conventional procedures used to assess the integrity of corroded piping systems with axial defects generally employ simplified failure criteria based upon a plastic collapse failure mechanism incorporating the tensile properties of the pipe material. These methods establish acceptance criteria for defects based on limited experimental data for low strength structural steels which do not necessarily address specific requirements for the high grade steels currently used. For these cases, failure assessments may be overly conservative or provide significant scatter in their predictions, which lead to unnecessary repair or replacement of in-service pipelines. Motivated by these observations, this study examines the applicability of a stress-based criterion based upon plastic instability analysis to predict the failure pressure of corroded pipelines with axial defects. A central focus is to gain additional insight into effects of defect geometry and material properties on the attainment of a local limit load to support the development of stress-based burst strength criteria. The work provides an extensive body of results which lend further support to adopt failure criteria for corroded pipelines based upon ligament instability analyses. A verification study conducted on burst testing of large-diameter pipe specimens with different defect length shows the effectiveness of a stress-based criterion using local ligament instability in burst pressure predictions, even though the adopted burst criterion exhibits a potential dependence on defect geometry and possibly on material`s strain hardening capacity. Overall, the results presented here suggests that use of stress-based criteria based upon plastic instability analysis of the defect ligament is a valid engineering tool for integrity assessments of pipelines with axial corroded defects. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Market-based transmission expansion planning gives information to investors on where is the most cost efficient place to invest and brings benefits to those who invest in this grid. However, both market issue and power system adequacy problems are system planers’ concern. In this paper, a hybrid probabilistic criterion of Expected Economical Loss (EEL) is proposed as an index to evaluate the systems’ overall expected economical losses during system operation in a competitive market. It stands on both investors’ and planner’s point of view and will further improves the traditional reliability cost. By applying EEL, it is possible for system planners to obtain a clear idea regarding the transmission network’s bottleneck and the amount of losses arises from this weak point. Sequentially, it enables planners to assess the worth of providing reliable services. Also, the EEL will contain valuable information for moneymen to undertake their investment. This index could truly reflect the random behaviors of power systems and uncertainties from electricity market. The performance of the EEL index is enhanced by applying Normalized Coefficient of Probability (NCP), so it can be utilized in large real power systems. A numerical example is carried out on IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS), which will show how the EEL can predict the current system bottleneck under future operational conditions and how to use EEL as one of planning objectives to determine future optimal plans. A well-known simulation method, Monte Carlo simulation, is employed to achieve the probabilistic characteristic of electricity market and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) is used as a multi-objective optimization tool.
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Action systems are a construct for reasoning about concurrent, reactive systems, in which concurrent behaviour is described by interleaving atomic actions. Sere and Troubitsyna have proposed an extension to action systems in which actions may be expressed and composed using discrete probabilistic choice as well as demonic nondeterministic choice. In this paper we develop a trace-based semantics for probabilistic action systems. This semantics provides a simple theoretical base on which practical refinement rules for probabilistic action systems may be justified.
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Objective To determine the association between rural undergraduate training, rural postgraduate training and medical school entry criteria favouring rural students, on likelihood of working in rural Australian general practice. Methods National case - control study of 2414 rural and urban general practitioners (GPs) sampled from the Health Insurance Commission database. Participants completed a questionnaire providing information on demographics, current practice location and rural undergraduate and postgraduate experience. Results Rural GPs were more likely to report having had any rural undergraduate training [ odds ratio ( OR) 1.61, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.32 - 1.95] than were urban GPs. Rural GPs were much more likely to report having had rural postgraduate training ( OR 3.14, 95% CI 2.57 - 3.83). As the duration of rural postgraduate training increased so did the likelihood of working as a rural GP: those reporting that more than half their postgraduate training was rural were most likely to be rural GPs ( OR 10.52, 95% CI 5.39 - 20.51). South Australians whose final high school year was rural were more likely to be rural GPs ( OR 3.18, 95% CI 0.99 - 10.22). Conclusions Undergraduate rural training, postgraduate training and medical school entry criteria favouring rural students, all are associated with an increased likelihood of being a rural GP. Longer rural postgraduate training is more strongly associated with rural practice. These findings argue for continuation of rural undergraduate training opportunities and rural entry schemes, and an expansion in postgraduate training opportunities for GPs.
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Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to verify if Brazilian companies are adopting environmental requirements in the supplier selection process. Further, this paper intends to analyze whether there is a relation between the level of environmental management maturity and the inclusion of environmental criteria in the companies` selection of suppliers. Design/methodology/approach - A review of mainstream literature on environmental management, traditional criteria in the supplier selection process and the incorporation of environmental requirements in this context. The empirical study`s strategy is based on five Brazilian case studies with industrial companies. Face-to-face interviews and informal conversations are to be held, explanations made by e-mail with representatives from the purchasing, environmental management, logistics and other areas, and observation and the collection of company documents are also employed. Findings - Based on the cases, it is concluded that companies still use traditional criteria to select suppliers, such as quality and cost, and do not adopt environmental requirements in the supplier selection process in a uniform manner. Evidence found shows that the level of environmental management maturity influences the depth with which companies adopt environmental criteria when selecting suppliers. Thus, a company with more advanced environmental management adopts more formal procedures for selecting environmentally appropriate suppliers than others. Originality/value - This is the first known study to verify if Brazilian companies are adopting environmental requirements in the supplier selection process.
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Objective: Existing evidence suggests that family interventions can be effective in reducing relapse rates in schizophrenia and related conditions. Despite this, such interventions are not routinely delivered in Australian mental health services. The objective of the current study is to investigate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of introducing three types of family interventions, namely: behavioural family management (BFM); behavioural intervention for families (BIF); and multiple family groups (MFG) into current mental health services in Australia. Method: The ICER of each of the family interventions is assessed from a health sector perspective, including the government, persons with schizophrenia and their families/carers using a standardized methodology. A two-stage approach is taken to the assessment of benefit. The first stage involves a quantitative analysis based on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. The second stage involves application of 'second filter' criteria (including equity, strength of evidence, feasibility and acceptability to stakeholders) to results. The robustness of results is tested using multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results: The most cost-effective intervention, in order of magnitude, is BIF (A$8000 per DALY averted), followed by MFG (A$21 000 per DALY averted) and lastly BFM (A$28 000 per DALY averted). The inclusion of time costs makes BFM more cost-effective than MFG. Variation of discount rate has no effect on conclusions. Conclusions: All three interventions are considered 'value-for-money' within an Australian context. This conclusion needs to be tempered against the methodological challenge of converting clinical outcomes into a generic economic outcome measure (DALY). Issues surrounding the feasibility of routinely implementing such interventions need to be addressed.
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The cell signaling cascades that mediate pigment movements in crustacean chromatophores are not yet well established, although Ca(2+) and cyclic nucleotide second messengers are involved. Here, we examine the participation of cyclic guanosine monophosphate (cGMP) in pigment aggregation triggered by red pigment concentrating hormone (RPCH) in the red ovarian chromatophores of freshwater shrimp. In Ca(2+)-containing (5.5 mmol l(-1)) saline, 10 mu mol l(-1) dibutyryl cGMP alone produced complete pigment aggregation with the same time course (approximate to 20 min) and peak velocity (approximate to 17 mu m/min) as 10(-8) mol l(-1) RPCH; however, in Ca(2+)-free saline (9 X 10(-11) mol l(-1) Ca(2+)), db-cGMP was without effect. The soluble guanylyl cyclase (GC-S) activators sodium nitroprusside (SNP, 0.5 mu mol l(-1)) and 3-morpholinosydnonimine (SIN-1, 100 mu mol l(-1)) induced moderate aggregation by themselves (approximate to 35%-40%) but did not affect RPCH-triggered aggregation. The GC-S inhibitors zinc protoporphyrin IX (ZnPP-XI, 30 mu mol l(-1)) and 6-anilino-5,8-quinolinedione (LY83583, 10 mu mol l(-1)) partially inhibited RPCH-triggered aggregation by approximate to 35%. Escherichia coli heat-stable enterotoxin (STa, 1 mu mol l(-1)), a membrane-receptor guanylyl cyclase stimulator, did not induce or affect RPCH-triggered aggregation. We propose that the binding of RPCH to an unknown membrane-receptor type activates a Ca(2+)-dependent signaling cascade coupled via cytosolic guanylyl cyclase and cGMP to protein kinase G-phosphorylated proteins that regulate aggregation-associated, cytoskeletal molecular motor activity. This is a further example of a cGMP signaling cascade mediating the effect of a crustacean X-organ neurosecretory peptide.
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Objectives To validate the previously proposed classification criteria for Henoch-Schonlein purpura (HSP), childhood polyarteritis nodosa (c-PAN), c-Wegener granulomatosis (c-WG) and c-Takayasu arteritis (c-TA). Methods Step 1: retrospective/prospective webdata collection for children with HSP, c-PAN, c-WG and c-TA with age at diagnosis <= 18 years. Step 2: blinded classification by consensus panel of a representative sample of 280 cases. Step 3: statistical (sensitivity, specificity, area under the curve and.-agreement) and nominal group technique consensus evaluations. Results 827 patients with HSP, 150 with c-PAN, 60 with c-WG, 87 with c-TA and 52 with c-other were compared with each other. A patient was classified as HSP in the presence of purpura or petechiae (mandatory) with lower limb predominance plus one of four criteria: (1) abdominal pain; (2) histopathology (IgA); (3) arthritis or arthralgia; (4) renal involvement. Classification of c-PAN required a systemic inflammatory disease with evidence of necrotising vasculitis OR angiographic abnormalities of medium-/small-sized arteries (mandatory criterion) plus one of five criteria: (1) skin involvement; (2) myalgia/muscle tenderness; (3) hypertension; (4) peripheral neuropathy; (5) renal involvement. Classification of c-WG required three of six criteria: (1) histopathological evidence of granulomatous inflammation; (2) upper airway involvement; (3) laryngo-tracheo-bronchial involvement; (4) pulmonary involvement (x-ray/CT); (5) antineutrophilic cytoplasmic antibody positivity; (6) renal involvement. Classification of c-TA required typical angiographic abnormalities of the aorta or its main branches and pulmonary arteries (mandatory criterion) plus one of five criteria: (1) pulse deficit or claudication; (2) blood pressure discrepancy in any limb; (3) bruits; (4) hypertension; (5) elevated acute phase reactant. Conclusion European League Against Rheumatism/Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation/Paediatric Rheumatology European Society propose validated classification criteria for HSP, c-PAN, c-WG and c-TA with high sensitivity/specificity.
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Cellular Prion Protein (PrP(C)) is a cell surface protein highly expressed in the nervous system, and to a lesser extent in other tissues. PrP(C) binds to the extracellular matrix laminin and vitronectin, to mediate cell adhesion and differentiation. Herein, we investigate how PrP(C) expression modulates the aggressiveness of transformed cells. Mesenchymal embryonic cells (MEC) from wildtype (Prnp(+/+)) and PrP(C)-null (Prnp(0/0)) mice were immortalized and transformed by co-expression of ras and myc. These cells presented similar growth rates and tumor formation in vivo. When injected in the tail vein, PrnP(0/0)raS/myc cells exhibited increased lung colonization compared with Prnp(+/+)ras/myc cells. Additionally, Prnp(0/0)ras/myc cells form more aggregates with blood components than Prnp(+/+)ras/myc cells, facilitating the arrest of Prnp(0/0)ras/myc cells in the lung vasculature. Integrin alpha(v)beta(3) is more expressed and activated in MEC and in transformed Prnp(0/0) cells than in the respective Prnp(+/+) cells. The blocking of integrin alpha(v)beta(3) by RGD peptide reduces lung colonization in transformed Prnp(0/0) cells to similar levels of those presented by transformed Prnp(+/+) cells. Our data indicate that PrP(C) negatively modulates the expression and activation of integrin alpha(v)beta(3) resulting in a more aggressive phenotype. These results indicate that PrP(C) may have main implications in modulating metastasis formation. (C) 2009 UICC
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Mycosis fungoides (MF) and Sezary syndrome (SS), the major forms of cutaneous T-cell lymphoma, have unique characteristics that distinguish them from other types of non-Hodgkin`s lymphomas. Clinical trials in MF/SS have suffered from a lack of standardization in evaluation, staging, assessment, end points, and response criteria. Recently defined criteria for the diagnosis of early MF, guidelines for initial evaluation, and revised staging and classification criteria for MF and SS now offer the potential for uniform staging of patients enrolled in clinical trials for MF/SS. This article presents consensus recommendations for the general conduct of clinical trials of patients with MF/SS as well as methods for standardized assessment of potential disease manifestations in skin, lymph nodes, blood, and visceral organs, and definition of end points and response criteria. These guidelines should facilitate collaboration among investigators and collation of data from sponsor-generated or investigator-initiated clinical trials involving patients with MF or SS. J Clin Oncol 29:2598-2607. (C) 2011 by American Society of Clinical Oncology
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Background: Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a clinically significant disorder in adulthood, but current diagnostic criteria and instruments do not seem to adequately capture the complexity of the disorder in this developmental phase. Accordingly, there are limited data on the proportion of adults affected by the disorder, specially in developing countries. Method: We assessed a representative household sample of the Brazilian population for ADHD with the Adult ADHD Self-report Scale (ASRS) Screener, and evaluated the instrument according to the Rasch model of item response theory. Results: The sample was comprised by 3007 individuals, and the overal prevalence of positive screeners for ADHD was 5.8% [95% confidence interval (CI), 4.8-7.0]. Rasch analyses revealed the misfitt of the overall sample to expectations of the model. The evaluation of the sample stratified by age revealed that data for adolescents showed a signficant fittnes to the model expectations, while items completed by adults were not adequated. Conclusions: The lack of fitness to the model for adult respondents challenges the possibility of a linear transformation of the ordinal data into interval measures and the utilization of parametric analyses of data. This result suggests that diagnostic criteria and instruments for adult ADHD must take into account a developmental perspective. Moreover, it calls for further evaluation of currently employed research methods in light of modern theories of psychometrics. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Objective: To assess the rate of comorbidities and the functional impairment associated with the social anxiety disorder (SAD), with an emphasis on the so-called subthreshold clinical signs and symptoms. Method: Psychiatric comorbidities and psychosocial functioning were evaluated in 355 volunteers (college students) who had been diagnosed as SAD (n = 141), Subthreshold SAD (n = 92) or Controls (n = 122). Results: The rate of comorbidities was 71.6% in the SAD group and 50% in subjects with Subthreshold SAD, both significantly greater than Controls (28.7%). Concerning psychosocial functioning, the SAD group had higher impairment than the other two groups in all domains evaluated, and subjects with Subthreshold SAD presented intermediate values. Conclusion: The rates of psychiatric comorbidities and the impairment of psychosocial functioning increase progressively along the spectrum of social anxiety. The fact that Subthreshold SAD causes considerable disability and suffering in comparison with control subjects justifies a review of the validity of the diagnostic criteria.