Priority Threat Management for Pilbara Species of Conservation Significance

This project provides a costed and appraised set of management strategies for mitigating threats to species of conservation significance in the Pilbara IBRA bioregion of Western Australia (hereafter 'the Pilbara'). Conservation significant species are either listed under federal and state legislation, international agreements or considered likely to be threatened in the next 20 years. Here we report on the 17 technically and socially feasible management strategies, which were drawn from the collective experience and knowledge of 49 experts and stakeholders in the ecology and management of the Pilbara region. We determine the relative ecological cost-effectiveness of each strategy, calculated as the expected benefit of management to the persistence of 53 key threatened native fauna and flora species, divided by the expected cost of management. Finally we provide decision support to assist prioritisation of the strategies on the basis of ecological cost-effectiveness.

Women, peace and security as an ASEAN priority

The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretariat and its member states have repeatedly professed their commitment to the protection and advancement of women’s economic and human rights. Such commitments have included the Declaration on the Advancement of Women in ASEAN in 1988, the ASEAN Declaration on the Elimination of Violence Against Women in 2004, and the ASEAN Declaration of Human Rights in 2012, as well as the establishment of the ASEAN Committee on Women in 2002 and the ASEAN Commission on the Promotion and Protection of Women and Children in 2009. However, none of these regional commitments or institutions expressly take up the core concern of the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda set out in United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1325 in 2000. ASEAN has no 1325 regional action plan and amongst the ASEAN membership, the Philippines is the only state that has adopted a 1325 National Action Plan (NAP). We explore the possible reasons for lack of ASEAN institutional engagement with 1325, outline the case for regional engagement, and suggest specific roles for ASEAN Secretariat, donor governments and individual member states to commit to UNSCR 1325 as a regional priority.

Priority threat management of invasive plant species in the Lake Eyre Basin

This project is led by scientists in conservation decision appraisal and brings together a group of experts working across the Lake Eyre Basin (LEB). The LEB covers a sixth of Australia, with an array of globally significant natural values that are threatened by invasive plants, among other things. Managers at various levels are investing in attempts to control, contain and eradicate these invasive plant species, under severe time and resources limitations. To date there has been no basin-wide assessment of which weed management strategies and locations provide the best investments for maximising outcomes for biodiversity per unit cost. Further, there has been no assessment of the extent of ecosystem intactness that may be lost without effective invasive plant species management strategies. Given that there are insufficient resources to manage all invasive plant species everywhere, this information has the potential to improve current investment decisions. Here, we provide a prioritisation of invasive plant management strategies in the LEB. Prioritisation was based on cost-effectiveness for biodiversity benefits. We identify the key invasive plant species to target to protect ecosystem intactness across the bioregions of the LEB, the level of investment required and the likely reduction in invasive species dominance gained per dollar spent on each strategy. Our focus is on strategies that are technically and socially feasible and reduce the likelihood that high impact invasive plant species will dominate native ecosystems, and therefore change their form and function. The outputs of this work are designed to help guide decision-making and further planning and investment in weed management for the Basin. Experts in weed management, policy-making, community engagement, biodiversity and natural values of the Basin, attended a workshop and agreed upon 12 strategies to manage invasive plants. The strategies focused primarily on 10 weeds which were considered to have a high potential for broad, significant impacts on natural ecosystems in the next 50 years and for which feasible management strategies could be defined. Each strategy consisted of one or more supporting actions, many of which were spatially linked to IBRA (Interim Biogeographical Regionalisation of Australia) bioregions. The first strategy was an over-arching recommendation for improved mapping, information sharing, education and extension efforts in order to facilitate the more specific weed management strategies. The 10 more specific weed management strategies targeted the control and/or eradication of the following high-impact exotic plants: mesquite, parkinsonia, rubber vine, bellyache bush, cacti, mother of millions, chinee apple, athel pine and prickly acacia, as well as a separate strategy for eradicating all invasive plants from one key threatened ecological community, the GAB (Great Artesian Basin dependant) mound springs. Experts estimated the expected biodiversity benefit of each strategy as the reduction in area that an invasive plant species is likely to dominate in over a 50-year period, where dominance was defined as more than 30% coverage at a site. Costs were estimated in present day terms over 50 years largely during follow up discussions post workshop. Cost-effectiveness was then calculated for each strategy in each bioregion by dividing the average expected benefit by the average annual costs. Overall, the total cost of managing 12 invasive plant strategies over the next 50 years was estimated at $1.7 billion. It was estimated that implementation of these strategies would result in a reduction of invasive plant dominance by 17 million ha (a potential 32% reduction), roughly 14% of the LEB. If only targeting Weeds of National Significance (WONS), the total cost was estimated to be $113 million over the next 50 years. Over the next 50 years, $2.3 million was estimated to eradicate all invasive plant species from the Great Artesian Basin Mound Springs threatened ecological community. Prevention and awareness programs were another key strategy targeted across the Basin and estimated at $17.5 million in total over 50 years. The cost of controlling, eradicating and containing buffel grass were the most expensive, over $1.5 billion over 50 years; this strategy was estimated to result in a reduction in buffel grass dominance of a million ha in areas where this species is identified as an environmental problem. Buffel grass has been deliberately planted across the Basin for pasture production and is by far the most widely distributed exotic species. Its management is contentious, having economic value to many graziers while posing serious threats to biodiversity and sites of high cultural and conservation interest. The strategy for containing and locally eradicating buffel grass was a challenge to cost based on expert knowledge, possibly because of the dual nature of this species as a valued pastoral grass and environmental weed. Based on our conversations with experts, it appears that control and eradication programs for this species, in conservation areas, are growing rapidly and that information on the most cost-effective strategies for this species will continue to develop over time. The top five most cost-effective strategies for the entire LEB were for the management of: 1) parkinsonia, 2) chinee apple, 3) mesquite, 4) rubber vine and 5) bellyache bush. Chinee apple and mother of millions are not WONS and have comparatively small populations within the semi-arid bioregions of Queensland. Experts felt that there was an opportunity to eradicate these species before they had the chance to develop into high-impact species within the LEB. Prickly acacia was estimated to have one of the highest benefits, but the costs of this strategy were high, therefore it was ranked 7th overall. The buffel grass strategy was ranked the lowest (10th) in terms of cost effectiveness. The top five most cost-effective strategies within and across the bioregions were the management of: 1) parkinsonia in the Channel Country, 2) parkinsonia in the Desert Uplands, 3) mesquite in the Mitchell Grass Downs, 4) parkinsonia in the Mitchell Grass Downs, and 5) mother of millions in the Desert Uplands. Although actions for several invasive plant species like parkinsonia and prickly acacia were concentrated in the Queensland part of the LEB, the actions involved investing in containment zones to prevent the spread of these species into other states. In the NT and SA bioregions of the LEB, the management of athel pine, parkinsonia and cacti were the main strategies. While outside the scientific research goals of study, this work highlighted a number of important incidental findings that led us to make the following recommendations for future research and implementation of weed management in the Basin: • Ongoing stakeholder engagement, extension and participation is required to ensure this prioritisation effort has a positive impact in affecting on-ground decision making and planning. • Short term funding for weed management was identified as a major reason for failure of current efforts, hence future funding needs to be secure and ongoing. • Improved mapping and information sharing is essential to implement effective weed management. • Due to uncertainties in the outcomes and impacts of management options, strategies should be implemented as part of an adaptive management program. The information provided in this report can be used to guide investment for controlling high-impact invasive plant species for the benefits of biodiversity conservation. We do not present a final prioritisation of invasive plant strategies for the LEB, and we have not addressed the cultural, socio-economic or spatial components necessary for an implementation plan. Cost-effectiveness depends on the objectives used; in our case we used the intactness of ecosystems as a surrogate for expected biodiversity benefits, measured by the extent that each invasive plant species is likely to dominate in a bioregion. When other relevant factors for implementation are considered the priorities may change and some actions may not be appropriate in some locations. We present the costs, ecological benefits and cost-effectiveness of preventing, containing, reducing and eradicating the dominance of high impact invasive plants through realistic management actions over the next 50 years. In doing so, we are able to estimate the size of the weed management problem in the LEB and provide expert-based estimates of the likely outcomes and benefits of implementing weed management strategies. The priorities resulting from this work provide a prospectus for guiding further investment in management and in improving information availability.

Benefits of integrating complementarity into priority threat management

Conservation decision tools based on cost-effectiveness analysis are used to assess threat management strategies for improving species persistence. These approaches rank alternative strategies by their benefit to cost ratio but may fail to identify the optimal sets of strategies to implement under limited budgets because they do not account for redundancies. We devised a multi objective optimization approach in which the complementarity principle is applied to identify the sets of threat management strategies that protect the most species for any budget. We used our approach to prioritize threat management strategies for 53 species of conservation concern in the Pilbara, Australia. We followed a structured elicitation approach to collect information on the benefits and costs of implementing 17 different conservation strategies during a 3-day workshop with 49 stakeholders and experts in the biodiversity, conservation, and management of the Pilbara. We compared the performance of our complementarity priority threat management approach with a current cost-effectiveness ranking approach. A complementary set of 3 strategies: domestic herbivore management, fire management and research, and sanctuaries provided all species with >50% chance of persistence for $4.7 million/year over 20 years. Achieving the same result cost almost twice as much ($9.71 million/year) when strategies were selected by their cost-effectiveness ranks alone. Our results show that complementarity of management benefits has the potential to double the impact of priority threat management approaches.

Best practice in peer-led curriculum content : informing an interactive program to improve passenger safety among high school seniors

Despite ongoing improvements in behaviour change strategies, licensing models and road law enforcement measures young drivers remain significantly over-represented in fatal and non-fatal road related crashes. This paper focuses on the safety of those approaching driving age and identifies both high priority road safety messages and relevant peer-led strategies to guide the development school programs. It summarises the review in a program logic model built around the messages and identified curriculum elements, as they may be best operationalised within the licensing and school contexts in Victoria. This paper summarises a review of common deliberate risk-taking and non-deliberate unsafe driving behaviours among novice drivers, highlighting risks associated with speeding, driving while fatigued, driving while impaired and carrying passengers. Common beliefs of young people that predict risky driving were reviewed, particularly with consideration of those beliefs that can be operationalised in a behaviour change school program. Key components of adolescent risk behaviour change programs were also reviewed, which identified a number of strategies for incorporation in a school based behaviour change program, including: a well-structured theoretical design and delivery, thoughtfully considered peer-selected processes, adequate training and supervision of peer facilitators, a process for monitoring and sustainability, and interactive delivery and participant discussions. The research base is then summarised in a program logic model with further discussion about the quality of the current state of knowledge of evaluation of behaviour change programs and the need for considerable development in program evaluation.

Individual differences in the processing of punishment and reward cues : an application to road safety messages

This thesis examined the extent to which individual differences, as conceptualised by the revised Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory, influenced young drivers' information processing and subsequent acceptance of anti-speeding messages. Using a multi-method approach, the findings highlighted the utility of combining objective measures (a cognitive response time task and electroencephalography) with self-report measures to assess message processing and message acceptance, respectively. This body of research indicated that responses to anti-speeding messages may differ depending on an individual's personality disposition. Overall, the research provided further insight into the development of message strategies to target high risk drivers.

Provincial mortality in South Africa, 2000 - priority-setting for now and a benchmark for the future

Background. Cause-of-death statistics are an essential component of health information. Despite improvements, underregistration and misclassification of causes make it difficult to interpret the official death statistics. Objective. To estimate consistent cause-specific death rates for the year 2000 and to identify the leading causes of death and premature mortality in the provinces. Methods. Total number of deaths and population size were estimated using the Actuarial Society of South Africa ASSA2000 AIDS and demographic model. Cause-of-death profiles based on Statistics South Africa's 15% sample, adjusted for misclassification of deaths due to ill-defined causes and AIDS deaths due to indicator conditions, were applied to the total deaths by age and sex. Age-standardised rates and years of life lost were calculated using age weighting and discounting. Results. Life expectancy in KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga is about 10 years lower than that in the Western Cape, the province with the lowest mortality rate. HIV/AIDS is the leading cause of premature mortality for all provinces. Mortality due to pre-transitional causes, such as diarrhoea, is more pronounced in the poorer and more rural provinces. In contrast, non-communicable disease mortality is similar across all provinces, although the cause profiles differ. Injury mortality rates are particularly high in provinces with large metropolitan areas and in Mpumalanga. Conclusion. The quadruple burden experienced in all provinces requires a broad range of interventions, including improved access to health care; ensuring that basic needs such as those related to water and sanitation are met; disease and injury prevention; and promotion of a healthy lifestyle. High death rates as a result of HIV/AIDS highlight the urgent need to accelerate the implementation of the treatment and prevention plan. In addition, there is an urgent need to improve the cause-of-death data system to provide reliable cause-of-death statistics at health district level.

Keeping international visitors safe on Australian beaches : informing the content of surf safety messages

In Australia, international tourists/visitors are one of the highest risk groups for drowning at beaches. Swimming in patrolled areas, between the flags, reduces the risk of drowning with most drownings occuring outside these areas. There is a need to understand beliefs which influence the extent to which international tourists/visitors intend to swim between the flags. The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) and, in particular, the indirect beliefs which underpin constructs in the model, represent a means of determining what factors influence this intention. The current study compared international visitors/tourists as having either low or high intentions to swim between the flags on a range of behavioural, normative, and control beliefs. A series of MANOVAs revealed significant differences between the groups in all three of the beliefs. The findings provide insight into potential foci for message content for use in educational campaigns aimed at keeping international visitors safe on Australian beaches.

Marginal costs of hospital-acquired conditions : information for priority-setting for patient safety programmes and research

Objective: To estimate the relative inpatient costs of hospital-acquired conditions. Methods: Patient level costs were estimated using computerized costing systems that log individual utilization of inpatient services and apply sophisticated cost estimates from the hospital's general ledger. Occurrence of hospital-acquired conditions was identified using an Australian ‘condition-onset' flag for diagnoses not present on admission. These were grouped to yield a comprehensive set of 144 categories of hospital-acquired conditions to summarize data coded with ICD-10. Standard linear regression techniques were used to identify the independent contribution of hospital-acquired conditions to costs, taking into account the case-mix of a sample of acute inpatients (n = 1,699,997) treated in Australian public hospitals in Victoria (2005/06) and Queensland (2006/07). Results: The most costly types of complications were post-procedure endocrine/metabolic disorders, adding AU$21,827 to the cost of an episode, followed by MRSA (AU$19,881) and enterocolitis due to Clostridium difficile (AU$19,743). Aggregate costs to the system, however, were highest for septicaemia (AU$41.4 million), complications of cardiac and vascular implants other than septicaemia (AU$28.7 million), acute lower respiratory infections, including influenza and pneumonia (AU$27.8 million) and UTI (AU$24.7 million). Hospital-acquired complications are estimated to add 17.3% to treatment costs in this sample. Conclusions: Patient safety efforts frequently focus on dramatic but rare complications with very serious patient harm. Previous studies of the costs of adverse events have provided information on ‘indicators’ of safety problems rather than the full range of hospital-acquired conditions. Adding a cost dimension to priority-setting could result in changes to the focus of patient safety programmes and research. Financial information should be combined with information on patient outcomes to allow for cost-utility evaluation of future interventions.

Young drivers' perceptions of road safety messages and a high performance vehicle advertisement : a qualitative exploration

While road safety messages that focus on physical threats have shown some effectiveness, messages that include social threats and gains/rewards may be an alternative approach to encourage safer driving behaviours. In addition to message frame and type, motor vehicle advertising exposure may also influence the persuasiveness of road safety messages. Using qualitative methods this preliminary study explored young drivers’ (N = 17, 11 males) perceptions of the persuasiveness of four anti-speeding messages and a fictional high performance vehicle advertisement. The majority of males perceived the social loss/gain-framed messages to be more persuasive (sense of responsibility and personal relevance themes), whereas females tended to perceive the physical loss/ gain-frame messages (social esteem theme) to be more persuasive. Males appeared to be, while females appeared not to be, persuaded by the vehicle advertisement. The findings suggest that a range of road safety messages may be required to reach and influence young drivers.

The Step approach to Message Design and Testing (SatMDT): A conceptual framework to guide the development and evaluation of persuasive health messages

This paper provides an important and timely overview of a conceptual framework designed to assist with the development of message content, as well as the evaluation, of persuasive health messages. While an earlier version of this framework was presented in a prior publication by the authors in 2009, important refinements to the framework have seen it evolve in recent years, warranting the need for an updated review. This paper outlines the Step approach to Message Design and Testing (or SatMDT) in accordance with the theoretical evidence which underpins, as well as empirical evidence which demonstrates the relevance and feasibility, of each of the framework’s steps. The development and testing of the framework have thus far been based exclusively within the road safety advertising context; however, the view expressed herein is that the framework may have broader appeal and application to the health persuasion context.

Priority threat management of non-native plants to maintain ecosystem integrity across heterogeneous landscapes

Invasive non-native plants have negatively impacted on biodiversity and ecosystem functions world-wide. Because of the large number of species, their wide distributions and varying degrees of impact, we need a more effective method for prioritizing control strategies for cost-effective investment across heterogeneous landscapes. Here, we develop a prioritization framework that synthesizes scientific data, elicits knowledge from experts and stakeholders to identify control strategies, and appraises the cost-effectiveness of strategies. Our objective was to identify the most cost-effective strategies for reducing the total area dominated by high-impact non-native plants in the Lake Eyre Basin (LEB). We use a case study of the ˜120 million ha Lake Eyre Basin that comprises some of the most distinctive Australian landscapes, including Uluru-Kata Tjuta National Park. More than 240 non-native plant species are recorded in the Lake Eyre Basin, with many predicted to spread, but there are insufficient resources to control all species. Lake Eyre Basin experts identified 12 strategies to control, contain or eradicate non-native species over the next 50 years. The total cost of the proposed Lake Eyre Basin strategies was estimated at AU$1·7 billion, an average of AU$34 million annually. Implementation of these strategies is estimated to reduce non-native plant dominance by 17 million ha – there would be a 32% reduction in the likely area dominated by non-native plants within 50 years if these strategies were implemented. The three most cost-effective strategies were controlling Parkinsonia aculeata, Ziziphus mauritiana and Prosopis spp. These three strategies combined were estimated to cost only 0·01% of total cost of all the strategies, but would provide 20% of the total benefits. Over 50 years, cost-effective spending of AU$2·3 million could eradicate all non-native plant species from the only threatened ecological community within the Lake Eyre Basin, the Great Artesian Basin discharge springs. Synthesis and applications. Our framework, based on a case study of the ˜120 million ha Lake Eyre Basin in Australia, provides a rationale for financially efficient investment in non-native plant management and reveals combinations of strategies that are optimal for different budgets. It also highlights knowledge gaps and incidental findings that could improve effective management of non-native plants, for example addressing the reliability of species distribution data and prevalence of information sharing across states and regions.

Priority threat management of invasive animals to protect biodiversity under climate change

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity, and its impacts can act synergistically to heighten the severity of other threats. Most research on projecting species range shifts under climate change has not been translated to informing priority management strategies on the ground. We develop a prioritization framework to assess strategies for managing threats to biodiversity under climate change and apply it to the management of invasive animal species across one-sixth of the Australian continent, the Lake Eyre Basin. We collected information from key stakeholders and experts on the impacts of invasive animals on 148 of the region's most threatened species and 11 potential strategies. Assisted by models of current distributions of threatened species and their projected distributions, experts estimated the cost, feasibility, and potential benefits of each strategy for improving the persistence of threatened species with and without climate change. We discover that the relative cost-effectiveness of invasive animal control strategies is robust to climate change, with the management of feral pigs being the highest priority for conserving threatened species overall. Complementary sets of strategies to protect as many threatened species as possible under limited budgets change when climate change is considered, with additional strategies required to avoid impending extinctions from the region. Overall, we find that the ranking of strategies by cost-effectiveness was relatively unaffected by including climate change into decision-making, even though the benefits of the strategies were lower. Future climate conditions and impacts on range shifts become most important to consider when designing comprehensive management plans for the control of invasive animals under limited budgets to maximize the number of threatened species that can be protected.