OMIP contribution to CMIP6: experimental and diagnostic protocol for the physical component of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project

The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) is an endorsed project in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). OMIP addresses CMIP6 science questions, investigating the origins and consequences of systematic model biases. It does so by providing a framework for evaluating (including assessment of systematic biases), understanding, and improving ocean, sea-ice, tracer, and biogeochemical components of climate and earth system models contributing to CMIP6. Among the WCRP Grand Challenges in climate science (GCs), OMIP primarily contributes to the regional sea level change and near-term (climate/decadal) prediction GCs. OMIP provides (a) an experimental protocol for global ocean/sea-ice models run with a prescribed atmospheric forcing; and (b) a protocol for ocean diagnostics to be saved as part of CMIP6. We focus here on the physical component of OMIP, with a companion paper (Orr et al., 2016) detailing methods for the inert chemistry and interactive biogeochemistry. The physical portion of the OMIP experimental protocol follows the interannual Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). Since 2009, CORE-I (Normal Year Forcing) and CORE-II (Interannual Forcing) have become the standard methods to evaluate global ocean/sea-ice simulations and to examine mechanisms for forced ocean climate variability. The OMIP diagnostic protocol is relevant for any ocean model component of CMIP6, including the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments), historical simulations, FAFMIP (Flux Anomaly Forced MIP), C4MIP (Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate MIP), DAMIP (Detection and Attribution MIP), DCPP (Decadal Climate Prediction Project), ScenarioMIP, HighResMIP (High Resolution MIP), as well as the ocean/sea-ice OMIP simulations.

THE EFFECTS OF MONSOONS AND CONNECTIVITY OF SOUTH CHINA SEA ON THE SEASONAL VARIATIONS OF WATER EXCHANGE IN THE LUZON STRAIT

Seasonal variations of water exchange in the Luzon Strait are studied numerically using the improved Princeton Ocean Model (POM) with a consideration of the effects of connectivity of South China Sea (SCS) and monsoons. The numerical simulations are carried out with the strategy of variable grids, coarse grids for the Pacific basin and fine grids for the SCS. It. is shown that the Mindoro Strait plays an important role in adjusting the water balance between the Pacific and the SCS. The SCS monsoon in summer seasons hinders the entrance of the Pacific water into the SCS through the Luzon Strait while the SCS monsoon in winter seasons promotes the entrance of Pacific water into the SCS through the Luzon Strait. However, the SCS monsoon does not affect the annual mean Luzon Strait transport, as is mainly determined by the Pacific basin wind.

Numerical simulation of tides and tidal currents in Liaodong Bay with POM

A three-dimensional ocean circulation model, called Princeton Ocean Model (POM), is employed to simulate tides and tidal currents in Liaodong Bay. The nested grid technique is adopted to improve the computation precision. Computed harmonic constants of M-1, M-2 tides at five tidal gauge stations and surface elevations at two oil platforms are compared with those observed, and show good agreements with them. Based on the calculated results, the co-amplitude and co-phase tag lines of nil and M-2 tidal constituents, the residual current field of M-2 constituent, tidal form, tidal Current ellipse and the moving style of tidal current are given. It is found that diurnal tidal constituents have no amphidromic point whereas semi-diurnal constituents have one in the region of interest. Meanwhile, some meaningful results are concluded and presented, which are conducive to a thorough knowledge of the characteristics of tides and tidal currents in the Liaodong Bay.

Tidally induced upwelling off Yangtze River estuary and in Zhejiang coastal waters in summer

MASNUM wave-tide-circulation coupled numerical model (MASNUM coupled model, hereinafter) is developed based on the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). Both POM and MASNUM coupled model are applied in the numerical simulation of the upwelling off Yangtze River estuary and in Zhejiang coastal waters in summer. The upwelling mechanisms are analyzed from the viewpoint of tide, and a new mechanism is proposed. The study suggests that the tidally inducing mechanism of the upwelling includes two dynamic aspects: the barotropic and the baroclinic process. On the one hand, the residual currents induced by barotropic tides converge near the seabed, and upwelling is generated to maintain mass conservation. The climbing of the residual currents along the sea bottom slope also contributes to the upwelling. On the other hand, tidal mixing plays a very important role in inducing the upwelling in the baroclinic sea circumstances. Strong tidal mixing leads to conspicuous front in the coastal waters. The considerable horizontal density gradient across the front elicits a secondary circulation clinging to the tidal front, and the upwelling branch appears near the frontal zone. Numerical experiments are designed to determine the importance of tide in inducing the upwelling. The results indicate that tide is a key and dominant inducement of the upwelling. Experiments also show that coupling calculation of the four main tidal constituents(M-2, S-2, K-1, and O-1), rather than dealing with the single M-2 constituent, improves the modeling precision of the barotropic tide-induced upwelling.

卫星高度计资料在海洋潮汐研究中的应用

本文依据收集到的392个地面验潮站8个主要分潮（M2、S2、K1、O1、N2、K2、P1及Q1）的调和常数，对现有7个全球大洋潮汐模式的准确度进行了检验，结果显示各模式在深海区域均达到了比较高的准确度，相互之间差别也不大。经验模式GOT00和CSR4.0、同化模式NAO99、反演同化模式TPXO7.0、数值同化模式FES2002和FES2004的M2分潮均方根偏差在3 cm左右，其它分潮（S2、K1、O1、N2、K2、P1及Q1）大约在1～2 cm。本文还依据中国近海18个岛屿的调和常数对其中的5个大洋潮汐模式的准确度进行了检验，结果表明，M2分潮均方根偏差在6～14 cm，明显高于大洋部分的偏差，其中日本国家天文台的潮汐模式NAO99在中国近海的结果相对较准确。 我们利用1992年8月至2008年8月的TOPEX/POSEIDON和JASON-1(T/P-J)卫星高度计资料，对沿卫星轨道的302816个站点进行了14个分潮的潮汐调和分析，得到了全球大洋潮汐的8个主要分潮以及2个气象分潮Sa、Ssa的经验同潮图。主要结果有：（1）各分潮在卫星上升轨道与下降轨道的交叉点(约7000个)相关性分析表明：M2分潮的振幅和迟角的相关系数很高（分别为0.9965和0.9961）；S2，K1，O1和Sa分潮也有较好的相关性（相关系数为0.94～0.99）；（2）该结果与392地面个验潮站吻合较好，其中M2分潮的振幅、迟角和向量的均方根偏差分别为：1.73 cm，2.340和2.93 cm；S2，K1和O1分潮的振幅、迟角和向量的均方根偏差为1 cm左右，5.250～7.270和1.5～2.1 cm，该精度与最近几年国际上的主要大洋潮汐模式的准确度相近；（3）首次通过卫星资料获得了Sa、Ssa分潮的同潮图。周期为1年的Sa分潮与大洋105个地面站相比，振幅、迟角和向量的均方根偏差分别为1.50 cm、18.360和2.16 cm。在此基础上，进一步分析了构成Sa、Ssa气象分潮的两个主要因素（海水密度以及海面气压）在全球的分布。 在T/P-J等卫星资料无法覆盖到南大洋和北冰洋，本文利用Princeton Ocean Model（POM）进行了数值模拟，模拟结果与162个地面实测站（其中南大洋30个，北冰洋132个）的观测比较一致。基于卫星资料分析的结果和数值模拟结果合并得到了全球大洋的8个主要分潮同潮图。在此基础上通过全球潮汐能量耗散的计算得到潮能通量的分布，并得到全球M2、S2、K1和O1分潮的潮汐能量耗散率为2.431TW、0.401TW、0.336TW和0.176TW。 本文还利用卫星资料对南海潮汐进行了研究，在中国南海，获得了主要的半日潮、全日潮、四分日分潮和长周期分潮（M2，S2，N2，K2，K1，O1，P1，Q1，M4, MS4，Sa, Ssa）的经验同潮图。与南海沿岸94个地面验潮站的数据符合得比较好，M2，S2，K1及O1等4个主要分潮的平均振幅差为2～4 cm，均方根偏差分别是9～11 cm.其它4个主要分潮N2，K2，P1，Q1的平均振幅差为1～2 cm，均方根偏差为2～4 cm。此外，本文还利用卫星高度计资料潮汐分析结果沿卫星轨道进行高通滤波，分离得出中国近海的M2，S2，K1及O1分潮的内潮信息。

天津近岸台风暴潮漫滩数值模拟研究

中国是太平洋沿岸国家中频繁遭受风暴潮灾害的国家之一，提高风暴潮预报的准确性，可以直接减少海洋灾害造成的经济损失和人员伤亡，具有十分积极的重要意义。针对天津近岸海域的地形和易受风暴潮漫滩灾害侵袭的特点，本文基于对POM( Princeton Ocean Model)模式的改进，建立了天津近岸海域三维动边界风暴潮漫滩模型，并选择典型天气个例，对天津近岸区域台风影响下的风暴潮漫滩进行了数值模拟研究。 本文的计算建立在POM模式基础上，采用两重网格嵌套的方法，第一套网格对整个渤海海域进行固定边界风暴潮的数值模拟，第二套网格对天津近岸海域进行可变边界模拟。通过两套网格的合理衔接，大区域网格尽量覆盖风场范围，小区域网格细致刻画浅水区域，提高了风暴潮的模拟分辨率。 第二套网格的计算，采用干湿网格法，在POM模式中加入干湿点的判断，而岸界条件与固定边界模式一样，从而提高了模式的模拟精度，能够较真实地模拟出台风作用下风暴潮水位随岸线的移动。本文采用的Flather-Heaps干湿网格法，简单易行，不会增加程序的复杂度和计算量。 模式选取7203、8509、9216、9711号台风计算风暴潮漫滩水位变化，通过与塘沽站点实测数据的比较，计算增水曲线过程与实测结果吻合较好，基本能够真实反映天津近岸的风暴潮水位变化情况及漫滩范围。本文的研究结果验证了改进POM模式为动边界数值模型并应用于浅海区域的可行性。

中国近海和西北太平洋温跃层时空变化分析、模拟及预报

温度跃层是反映海洋温度场的重要物理特性指标，对水下通讯、潜艇活动及渔业养殖、捕捞等有重要影响。本文利用中国科学院海洋研究所“中国海洋科学数据库”在中国近海及西北太平洋（110ºE-140ºE,10ºN-40ºN）的多年历史资料（1930-2002年，510143站次），基于一种改进的温跃层判定方法，分析了该海域温跃层特征量的时空分布状况。同时利用Princeton Ocean Model(POM)，对中国近海，特别是东南沿海的水文结构进行了模拟，研究了海洋水文环境对逆温跃层的影响。最后根据历史海温观测资料，利用EOF分解统计技术，提出了一种适于我国近海及毗邻海域，基于现场有限层实测海温数据，快速重构海洋水温垂直结构的统计预报方法，以达到对现场温跃层的快速估计。 历史资料分析结果表明，受太阳辐射和风应力的影响，20°N以北研究海域，温跃层季节变化明显，夏季温跃层最浅、最强，冬季相反，温跃层厚度的相位明显滞后于其他变量，其在春季最薄、秋季最厚。12月份到翌年3月份，渤、黄及东海西岸，呈无跃层结构，西北太平洋部分海域从1月到3月份，也基本无跃层结构。在黄海西和东岸以及台湾海峡附近的浅滩海域，由于风力搅拌和潮混合作用，温跃层出现概率常年较低。夏季，海水层化现象在近海陆架海域得到了加强，陆架海域温跃层强度季节性变化幅度(0.31°C/m)明显大于深水区(约0.05°C/m)，而前者温跃层深度和厚度的季节性变化幅度小于后者。20°N以南研究海域，温跃层季节变化不明显。逆温跃层主要出现在冬、春季节（10月-翌年5月）。受长江冲淡水和台湾暖流的影响，东南沿海区域逆温跃层持续时间最长，出现概率最大，而在山东半岛北及东沿岸、朝鲜半岛西及北岸，逆温跃层消长过程似乎和黄海暖流有关。多温跃层结构常年出现于北赤道流及对马暖流区。在黑潮入侵黄、东、南海的区域，多温跃层呈现明显不同的季节变化。在黄海中部，春季多温跃层发生概率高于夏季和秋季，在东海西部，多跃层主要出现在夏季，在南海北部，冬季和春季多温跃层发生概率大于夏季和秋季。这些变化可能主要受海表面温度变化和风力驱动的表层流的影响。 利用Princeton Ocean Model(POM)，对中国东南沿海逆温跃层结构进行了模拟，模拟结果显示，长江冲淡水的季节性变化以及夏季转向与实际结果符合较好，基本再现了渤、黄、东海海域主要的环流、温盐场以及逆温跃层的分布特征和季节变化。通过数值实验发现，若无长江、黄河淡水输入，则在整个研究海域基本无逆温跃层出现，因此陆源淡水可能是河口附近逆温跃层出现的基本因素之一。长江以及暖流（黑潮和台湾暖流）流量的增加，均可在不同程度上使逆温跃层出现概率及强度、深度和厚度增加，且暖流的影响更加明显。长江对东南沿海逆温跃层的出现，特别是秋季到冬季初期，有明显的影响，使长江口海域逆温跃层位置偏向东南。暖流对于中国东南沿海的逆温跃层结构，特别是初春时期，有较大影响，使长江口海域的逆温跃层位置向东北偏移。 通过对温跃层长期变化分析得出，黄海冷水团区域，夏季温跃层强度存在3.8年左右的年际变化及18.9年左右的年代际变化，此变化可能主要表现为对当年夏季和前冬东亚地区大气气温的热力响应。东海冷涡区域，夏季温跃层强度存在3.7年的年际变化，在El Nino年为正的强度异常，其可能主要受局地气旋式大气环流变异所影响。谱分析同时表明，该海域夏季温跃层强度还存在33.2年的年代际变化，上世纪70年代中期，温跃层强度由弱转强，而此变化可能与黑潮流量的年代际变化有关。 海洋水温垂直结构的统计预报结果显示，EOF分解的前四个主分量即能够解释原空间点温度距平总方差的95%以上，以海洋表层附近观测资料求解的特征系数推断温度垂直结构分布的结果最稳定。利用东海陆架区、南海深水区和台湾周边海域三个不同区域的实测CTD样本廓线资料，对重构模型的检验结果表明，重构与实测廓线的相关程度超过95%的置信水平。三个区重构与实测温度廓线值的平均误差分别为0.69℃，0.52℃，1.18℃，平均重构廓线误差小于平均气候偏差，统计模式可以很好的估算温度廓线垂直结构。东海陆架海区温度垂直重构廓线与CTD观测廓线获得的温跃层结果对比表明，重构温跃层上界、下界深度和强度的平均绝对误差分别为1.51m、1.36m和0.17℃/m，它们的平均相对误差分别为24.7%、8.9%和22.6%，虽然温跃层深度和强度的平均相对误差较大，但其绝对误差量值较小。而在南海海区，模型重构温跃层上界、下界和强度的平均绝对预报误差分别为4.1m、27.7m和0.007℃/m，它们的平均相对误差分别为16.1%、16.8%和9.5%，重构温跃层各特征值的平均相对误差都在20%以内。虽然南海区温跃层下界深度平均绝对预报误差较大，但相对于温跃层下界深度的空间尺度变化而言（平均温跃层下界深度为168m），平均相对误差仅为16.8%。因此说模型重构的温度廓线可以达到对我国陆架海域、深水区温跃层的较好估算。 基于对历史水文温度廓线观测资料的分析及自主温跃层统计预报模型，研制了实时可利用微机简单、快捷地进行温跃层估算及查询的可视化系统，这是迄今进行大范围海域温跃层统计与实时预报研究的较系统成果。

Dynamics of the Indonesian seas circulation. Part I – The influence of bottom topography on temperature and salinity distributions

The influence of bottom topography on the distribution of temperature and salinity in the Indonesian seas region has been studied with a high-resolution model based on the Princeton Ocean Model. One of the distinctive properties of the model is an adequate reproduction of all major topographic features in the region by the model bottom relief. The three major routes of flow of Pacific water through the region have been identified. The western route follows the flow of North Pacific Water through the Sulawesi Sea, Makassar Strait, Flores Sea, and Banda Sea. This is the main branch of the Indonesian Throughflow. The eastern routes follow the flow of South Pacific water through the eastern Indonesian seas. This water enters the region either through the Halmahera Sea or by flowing to the north around Halmahera Island into the Morotai Basin and then into the Maluku Sea. A deep southward flow of South Pacific Water fills the Seram Sea below 1200 m through the Lifamatola Passage. As it enters the Seram Sea, this overflow turns eastward at depths greater than 2000 m, then upwells in the eastern part of the Seram Sea before returning westward at ~1500-2000 m. The flow continues westward across the Seram Sea, spreading to greater depths before entering the Banda Sea at the Buru-Mangole passage. It is this water that shapes the temperature and salinity of the deep Banda Sea. Topographic elevations break the Indonesian seas region down into separate basins. The difference in the distributions of potential temperature, ?, and salinity, S, in adjacent basins is primarily due to specific properties of advection of ? and S across a topographic rise. By and large, the topographic rise blocks deep flow between basins whereas water shallower than the depth of the rise is free to flow between basins. To understand this process, the structure of simulated fields of temperature and salinity has been analyzed. To identify a range of advected ? or S, special sections over the sills with isotherms or isohalines and isotachs of normal velocity have been considered. Following this approach the impact of various topographic rises on the distribution of ? and S has been identified. There are no substantial structural changes of potential temperature and salinity distributions between seasons, though values of some parameters of temperature and salinity distributions, e.g., magnitudes of maxima and minima, can change. It is shown that the main structure of the observed distributions of temperature and salinity is satisfactorily reproduced by the model throughout the entire domain.

Anàlisi del camp d'ones internes en sistemes limnològics petits. Simulacions amb el POM

Aquí hem aplicat el Princeton Ocean Model als embassaments de Sau i Boadella, situats a Catalunya, Espanya. Les simulacions s'han realitzat a l'estació d'estiu, quan la columna d'aigua està estratificada de forma contínua, i sota un règim de brisa amb velocitats de fins a 4 m/s. Basant-nos en aquestes simulacions hem analitzat el camp d'ones internes i comparat els resultats numèrics amb dades experimentals disponibles. El model reprodueix adequadament tots els modes observats en l'espectre de la velocitat i temperatura mesurades i ajuda a identificar els diferents modes. Les simulacions mostren la importància dels modes rotacionals en el camp d'ones internes dels embassaments estratificats. En el període estudiat, el radi de Rossby per l'embassament de Sau és de l'ordre de 100 m, que és varies vegades més petit que la amplitud de l'àrea lacustre de l'embassament, i el número de Rossby és de l'ordre de 0.1, corroborant la importancia de l'efecte de Coriolis.

Eddy-induced upwelling off Cape Sao Tome (22 degrees S, Brazil)

The regional ocean off southeast Brazil (20 degrees S-28 degrees S) is known as a current-eddy-upwelling region. The proximity of the Brazil Current to the coast in the Cape Sao Tome vicinities, as well as of its quasi-stationary unstable meanders, suggests the possibility of background eddy-induced upwelling. Such phenomenon can intensify the prevalent coastal upwelling due to wind and topographic effects. In this paper, with the help of a numerical simulation, we provide evidence that eddy-induced upwelling in the absence of wind is possible in this region. The simulation was conducted with a regional configuration of the 3-D Princeton Ocean Model initialized by a feature-based implementation of the Brazil Current and Cape Frio eddy, blended with climatology. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Feature-oriented regional modeling and simulations (FORMS) for the western South Atlantic: Southeastern Brazil region

The multi-scale synoptic circulation system in the southeastern Brazil (SEBRA) region is presented using a feature-oriented approach. Prevalent synoptic circulation structures, or ""features,"" are identified from previous observational studies. These features include the southward-flowing Brazil Current (BC), the eddies off Cabo Sao Tome (CST - 22 degrees S) and off Cabo Frio (CF - 23 degrees S), and the upwelling region off CF and CST. Their synoptic water-mass (T-S) structures are characterized and parameterized to develop temperature-salinity (T-S) feature models. Following [Gangopadhyay, A., Robinson, A.R., Haley, PJ., Leslie, W.J., Lozano, C.j., Bisagni, J., Yu, Z., 2003. Feature-oriented regional modeling and simulation (forms) in the gulf of maine and georges bank. Cont. Shelf Res. 23 (3-4), 317-353] methodology, a synoptic initialization scheme for feature-oriented regional modeling and simulation (FORMS) of the circulation in this region is then developed. First, the temperature and salinity feature-model profiles are placed on a regional circulation template and objectively analyzed with available background climatology in the deep region. These initialization fields are then used for dynamical simulations via the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). A few first applications of this methodology are presented in this paper. These include the BC meandering, the BC-eddy interaction and the meander-eddy-upwelling system (MEUS) simulations. Preliminary validation results include realistic wave-growth and eddy formation and sustained upwelling. Our future plan includes the application of these feature models with satellite, in-situ data and advanced data-assimilation schemes for nowcasting and forecasting the SEBRA region. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Numerical Investigation of the Gulf Stream and Its Meanders in Response to Cold Air Outbreaks

The three-dimensional Princeton Ocean Model is used to examine the modification of the Gulf Stream and its meanders by cold air outbreaks. Two types of Gulf Stream meanders are found in the model. Meanders on the shoreward side of the Gulf Stream are baroclinically unstable. They are affected little by the atmospheric forcing because their energy source is stored at the permanent thermocline, well below the influence of the surface forcing. Meanders on the seaward side of the stream are both barotropically and baroclinically unstable. The energy feeding these meanders is stored at the surface front separating the Gulf Stream and the Sargasso Seal which is greatly reduced in case of cold air outbreaks. Thus, meanders there reduce strength and also seem to slow their downstream propagation due to the southward Ekman flow. Heat budget calculations suggest two almost separable processes. The oceanic heal released to the atmosphere during these severe cooling episodes comes almost exclusively from the upper water column. Transport of heat by meanders from the Gulf Stream to the shelf, though it is large, does not disrupt the principal balance. It is balanced nicely with the net heat transport in the downstream direction.

Kuroshio Intrusion and the Circulation in the South China Sea

The Princeton Ocean Model is used to study the circulation in the South China Sea (SCS) and its seasonal transition. Kuroshio enters ( leaves) the SCS through the southern ( northern) portion of the Luzon Strait. The annually averaged net volume flux through the Luzon Strait is similar to2 Sv into the SCS with seasonal reversals. The inflow season is from May to January with the maximum intrusion of Kuroshio water reaching the western SCS during fall in compensation of summertime surface offshore transport associated with coastal upwelling. From February to April the net transport reverses from the SCS to the Pacific. The intruded Kuroshio often forms an anticyclonic current loop west of the Luzon Strait. The current loop separates near the Dongsha Islands with the northward branch continuously feeding the South China Sea Warm Current (SCSWC) near the shelf break and the westward branch becoming the South China Sea Branch of Kuroshio on the slope, which is most apparent in the fall. The SCSWC appears from December to February on the seaward side of the shelf break, flowing eastward against the prevailing wind. Diagnosis shows that the onshore Ekman transport due to northeasterly monsoon generates upwelling when moving upslope, and the particular distributions of the density and sea level associated with the cross shelf motion supports the SCSWC.

Study of the development and evolution of seasonal thermocline and turbulent processes in the northern parts of Persian Gulf using numerical modeling

The Persian Gulf (PG) is a semi-enclosed shallow sea which is connected to open ocean through the Strait of Hormuz. Thermocline as a suddenly decrease of temperature in subsurface layer in water column leading to stratification happens in the PG seasonally. The forcing comprise tide, river inflow, solar radiation, evaporation, northwesterly wind and water exchange with the Oman Sea that influence on this process. In this research, analysis of the field data and a numerical (Princeton Ocean Model, POM) study on the summer thermocline development in the PG are presented. The Mt. Mitchell cruise 1992 salinity and temperature observations show that the thermocline is effectively removed due to strong wind mixing and lower solar radiation in winter but is gradually formed and developed during spring and summer; in fact as a result of an increase in vertical convection through the water in winter, vertical gradient of temperature is decreased and thermocline is effectively removed. Thermocline development that evolves from east to west is studied using numerical simulation and some existing observations. Results show that as the northwesterly wind in winter, at summer transition period, weakens the fresher inflow from Oman Sea, solar radiation increases in this time interval; such these factors have been caused the thermocline to be formed and developed from winter to summer even over the northwestern part of the PG. The model results show that for the more realistic monthly averaged wind experiments the thermocline develops as is indicated by summer observations. The formation of thermocline also seems to decrease the dissolved oxygen in water column due to lack of mixing as a result of induced stratification. Over most of PG the temperature difference between surface and subsurface increases exponentially from March until May. Similar variations for salinity differences are also predicted, although with smaller values than observed. Indeed thermocline development happens more rapidly in the Persian Gulf from spring to summer. Vertical difference of temperature increases to 9 centigrade degrees in some parts of the case study zone from surface to bottom in summer. Correlation coefficients of temperature and salinity between the model results and measurements have been obtained 0.85 and 0.8 respectively. The rate of thermcline development was found to be between 0.1 to 0.2 meter per day in the Persian Gulf during the 6 months from winter to early summer. Also it is resulted from the used model that turbulence kinetic energy increases in the northwestern part of the PG from winter to early summer that could be due to increase in internal waves activities and stability intensified through water column during this time.

Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere model

A state-of-the-art model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the climate forecast system (CFS), from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, has been ported onto the PARAM Padma parallel computing system at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC), Bangalore and retrospective predictions for the summer monsoon (June-September) season of 2009 have been generated, using five initial conditions for the atmosphere and one initial condition for the ocean for May 2009. Whereas a large deficit in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June-September) was experienced over the Indian region (with the all-India rainfall deficit by 22% of the average), the ensemble average prediction was for above-average rainfall during the summer monsoon. The retrospective predictions of ISMR with CFS from NCEP for 1981-2008 have been analysed. The retrospective predictions from NCEP for the summer monsoon of 1994 and that from CDAC for 2009 have been compared with the simulations for each of the seasons with the stand-alone atmospheric component of the model, the global forecast system (GFS), and observations. It has been shown that the simulation with GFS for 2009 showed deficit rainfall as observed. The large error in the prediction for the monsoon of 2009 can be attributed to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event seen in the prediction from July onwards, which was not present in the observations. This suggests that the error could be reduced with improvement of the ocean model over the equatorial Indian Ocean.