Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy. We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

The characterisation of Ureaplasma species isolated from the Chorioamnion of women who deliver late Preterm

This thesis investigated, for the first time, the prevalence of Ureaplasma species infection within the placentae of women who delivered in the late preterm stages of pregnancy. The presence of these microorganisms was associated with either severe inflammation within the placenta or, for some women, there were no pregnancy complications and these women delivered at term. Ureaplasmas are able to vary their surface exposed lipoproteins and we demonstrated that different host immune responses were generated in vivo to different sized surface lipoproteins. This may explain why ureaplasma infections do not always result in adverse pregnancy and neonatal outcomes.

Genotyping for genetic association studies: Methods and applications

In this thesis, two separate single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping techniques were set up at the Finnish Genome Center, pooled genotyping was evaluated as a screening method for large-scale association studies, and finally, the former approaches were used to identify genetic factors predisposing to two distinct complex diseases by utilizing large epidemiological cohorts and also taking environmental factors into account. The first genotyping platform was based on traditional but improved restriction-fragment-length-polymorphism (RFLP) utilizing 384-microtiter well plates, multiplexing, small reaction volumes (5 µl), and automated genotype calling. We participated in the development of the second genotyping method, based on single nucleotide primer extension (SNuPeTM by Amersham Biosciences), by carrying out the alpha- and beta tests for the chemistry and the allele-calling software. Both techniques proved to be accurate, reliable, and suitable for projects with thousands of samples and tens of markers. Pooled genotyping (genotyping of pooled instead of individual DNA samples) was evaluated with Sequenom s MassArray MALDI-TOF, in addition to SNuPeTM and PCR-RFLP techniques. We used MassArray mainly as a point of comparison, because it is known to be well suited for pooled genotyping. All three methods were shown to be accurate, the standard deviations between measurements being 0.017 for the MassArray, 0.022 for the PCR-RFLP, and 0.026 for the SNuPeTM. The largest source of error in the process of pooled genotyping was shown to be the volumetric error, i.e., the preparation of pools. We also demonstrated that it would have been possible to narrow down the genetic locus underlying congenital chloride diarrhea (CLD), an autosomal recessive disorder, by using the pooling technique instead of genotyping individual samples. Although the approach seems to be well suited for traditional case-control studies, it is difficult to apply if any kind of stratification based on environmental factors is needed. Therefore we chose to continue with individual genotyping in the following association studies. Samples in the two separate large epidemiological cohorts were genotyped with the PCR-RFLP and SNuPeTM techniques. The first of these association studies concerned various pregnancy complications among 100,000 consecutive pregnancies in Finland, of which we genotyped 2292 patients and controls, in addition to a population sample of 644 blood donors, with 7 polymorphisms in the potentially thrombotic genes. In this thesis, the analysis of a sub-study of pregnancy-related venous thromboses was included. We showed that the impact of factor V Leiden polymorphism on pregnancy-related venous thrombosis, but not the other tested polymorphisms, was fairly large (odds ratio 11.6; 95% CI 3.6-33.6), and increased multiplicatively when combined with other risk factors such as obesity or advanced age. Owing to our study design, we were also able to estimate the risks at the population level. The second epidemiological cohort was the Helsinki Birth Cohort of men and women who were born during 1924-1933 in Helsinki. The aim was to identify genetic factors that might modify the well known link between small birth size and adult metabolic diseases, such as type 2 diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance. Among ~500 individuals with detailed birth measurements and current metabolic profile, we found that an insertion/deletion polymorphism of the angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) gene was associated with the duration of gestation, and weight and length at birth. Interestingly, the ACE insertion allele was also associated with higher indices of insulin secretion (p=0.0004) in adult life, but only among individuals who were born small (those among the lowest third of birth weight). Likewise, low birth weight was associated with higher indices of insulin secretion (p=0.003), but only among carriers of the ACE insertion allele. The association with birth measurements was also found with a common haplotype of the glucocorticoid receptor (GR) gene. Furthermore, the association between short length at birth and adult impaired glucose tolerance was confined to carriers of this haplotype (p=0.007). These associations exemplify the interaction between environmental factors and genotype, which, possibly due to altered gene expression, predisposes to complex metabolic diseases. Indeed, we showed that the common GR gene haplotype associated with reduced mRNA expression in thymus of three individuals (p=0.0002).

The impact of structured support groups for pregnant South African women recently diagnosed HIV positive.

The authors of this study evaluated a structured 10-session psychosocial support group intervention for newly HIV-diagnosed pregnant South African women. Participants were expected to display increases in HIV disclosure, self-esteem, active coping and positive social support, and decreases in depression, avoidant coping, and negative social support. Three hundred sixty-one pregnant HIV-infected women were recruited from four antenatal clinics in Tshwane townships from April 2005 to September 2006. Using a quasi-experimental design, assessments were conducted at baseline and two and eight months post-intervention. A series of random effects regression analyses were conducted, with the three assessment points treated as a random effect of time. At both follow-ups, the rate of disclosure in the intervention group was significantly higher than that of the comparison group (p<0.001). Compared to the comparison group at the first follow-up, the intervention group displayed higher levels of active coping (t=2.68, p<0.05) and lower levels of avoidant coping (t=-2.02, p<0.05), and those who attended at least half of the intervention sessions exhibited improved self-esteem (t=2.11, p<0.05). Group interventions tailored for newly HIV positive pregnant women, implemented in resource-limited settings, may accelerate the process of adjusting to one's HIV status, but may not have sustainable benefits over time.

Heightened maternal inflammation is linked to placental oxidative and nitrosative stress associated with fetal growth restriction in the rat

Deficient trophoblast invasion and spiral artery remodeling are associated with pregnancy complications such as pre-eclampsia (PE) and fetal growth restriction (FGR). Using a model in which pregnant Wistar rats are given daily, low-dose, injections of bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS; 10 – 40 µg/kg) on gestational days (GD) 13.5 – 16.5, our group has shown that abnormal maternal inflammation is causally linked to shallow trophoblast invasion, deficient spiral artery remodeling, and altered utero-placental hemodynamics leading to FGR/PE; these alterations were shown to be mediated by TNF-a. The present research evaluated certain consequences of decreased placental perfusion; this was accomplished by examining placental alterations indicative of decreased placental perfusion. Additionally, the role of glyceryl trinitrate (GTN) was determined as a potential therapeutic to prevent the consequences of decreased placental perfusion. Results indicated that dams experiencing heightened maternal inflammation showed significantly greater expression of hypoxia-inducible factor-1a (HIF-1a) and nitrotyrosine, both of which are markers of decreased perfusion and oxidative/nitrosative stress. Contrary to expectations, inflammation did not appear to affect nitric oxide (NO) bioavailability, as revealed by a lack of change in placental or plasma levels of cyclic guanosine monophosphate (cGMP). However, continuous transdermal administration of GTN (25 µg/hr) on GD 12.5 – 16.5 prevented the accumulation of HIF-1a and nitrotyrosine in placentas from LPS-treated rats. These results support the concept that maternal inflammation contributes to placental hypoxia and oxidative/nitrosative stress. Additionally, they indicate that GTN has potential applications in the treatment and/or prevention of pregnancy complications associated with abnormal maternal inflammation.

Analysis of parameters of haemostasis in pre-eclamptic, normotensive pregnant and non-pregnant women.

Pregnancy is characterized by a state of heightened coagulation, which is exacerbated in pathological conditions such as pre-eclampsia (PET). PET is further associated with abnormal maternal inflammation and increased circulating microparticles (MP); however, a mechanistic link between these pathological features has never been established. It is proposed in this thesis that abnormal maternal inflammation is causally linked to pro-coagulant trophoblast MP shedding via a mechanism mediated by the pro-inflammatory cytokine tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF), thereby contributing to maternal coagulopathies associated with PET. Using thromboelastography (TEG) and standard laboratory tests, haemostatic function was evaluated in PET and normotensive subjects at delivery and post-partum. Furthermore, the effects of the menstrual cycle and oral contraceptive (OC) use on haemostatic function were assessed in non-pregnant subjects in order to understand their influence on post-partum haemostasis. Plasma TNF and pro-coagulant MP levels were evaluated in the pregnant subjects. Using chorionic villi explants from human term placentas, MPs were quantified after TNF administration. The pro-coagulant potential of placental MPs was evaluated by TEG by spiking whole-blood with medium containing MPs from chorionic villi. TEG identified increased whole-blood coagulability in PET subjects at delivery, demonstrating its increased sensitivity over standard laboratory tests at identifying haemostatic alterations associated with PET. Haemostatic alterations were normalized by six weeks post-partum. TEG also identified cyclic haemostatic variations associated with OC use. Chorionic villi treated with TNF (1 ng/ml) shed significantly more MPs than untreated placentas. MPs from chorionic villi increased the coagulability of whole-blood. Together, results provide evidence supporting the concept that abnormal maternal inflammation is causally linked to the development of maternal coagulopathies in pregnancy complications. Moreover, TEG may be superior to standard laboratory tests in evaluating haemostasis in pregnant and non-pregnant subjects.

Anti-angiogenic factors and pre-eclampsia in type 1 diabetic women

Aims/hypothesis: Elevated anti-angiogenic factors such as soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt1), a soluble form of vascular endothelial growth factor receptor, and endoglin, a co-receptor for TGFß1, confer high risk of pre-eclampsia in healthy pregnant women. In this multicentre prospective study, we determined levels of these and related factors in pregnant women with type 1 diabetes, a condition associated with a fourfold increase in pre-eclampsia.
Methods: Maternal serum sFlt1, endoglin, placental growth factor (PlGF) and pigment epithelial derived factor were measured in 151 type 1 diabetic and 24 healthy non-diabetic women at each trimester and at term.
Results: Approximately 22% of the diabetic women developed pre-eclampsia, primarily after their third trimester visit. In women with pre-eclampsia (diabetic pre-eclampsia, n?=?26) vs those without hypertensive complications (diabetic normotensive, n?=?95), significant changes in angiogenic factors were observed, predominantly in the early third trimester and prior to clinical manifestation of pre-eclampsia. Serum sFlt1 levels were increased approximately twofold in type 1 diabetic pre-eclampsia vs type 1 diabetic normotensive women at the third trimester visit (p?<?0.05) and the normal rise of PlGF during pregnancy was blunted (p?<?0.05). Among type 1 diabetic women, third trimester sFlt1 and PlGF were inversely related (r2?=?42%, p?<?0.0001). Endoglin levels were increased significantly in the diabetic group as a whole vs the non-diabetic group (p?<?0.0001).
Conclusions/interpretation: Higher sFlt1 levels, a blunted PlGF rise and an elevated sFlt1/PlGF ratio are predictive of pre-eclampsia in pregnant women with type 1 diabetes. Elevated endoglin levels in women with type 1 diabetes may confer a predisposition to pre-eclampsia and may contribute to the high incidence of pre-eclampsia in this patient group.

Known risk factors for violence predict 12-month-old infants' aggressiveness with peers

This study tested the hypothesis that 12-month-old infants' use of force against peers is associated with known risk factors for violence. We conducted a prospective longitudinal study, which included laboratory observations of firstborn British infants (N = 271) during simulated birthday parties. No gender differences in aggressiveness were observed. The infants' observed aggressiveness was significantly correlated with mothers' mood disorder during pregnancy and with mothers' history of conduct problems. Infants' observed aggressiveness was correlated with parents' ratings of infants' anger and aggression, which were also predicted by mothers' mood disorder and history of conduct problems. Our findings indicate that infants at risk for serious aggression can already be identified when the motor ability to use physical force first enters the human repertoire.

'Every pregnant woman needs a midwife'--the experiences of HIV affected women in maternity care

TITLE: 'Every pregnant woman needs a midwife'-the experiences of HIV affected women in Northern Ireland.

OBJECTIVE: to explore HIV positive women's experiences of pregnancy and maternity care, with a focus on their interactions with midwives.

DESIGN: a prospective qualitative study.

SETTING: regional HIV unit in Northern Ireland.

PARTICIPANTS: 22 interviews were conducted with 10 women at different stages of their reproductive trajectories.

FINDINGS: the pervasive presence of HIV related stigma threatened the women's experience of pregnancy and care. The key staff attributes that facilitated a positive experience were knowledge and experience, empathy and understanding of their unique needs and continuity of care.

KEY CONCLUSIONS: pregnancy in the context of HIV, whilst offering a much needed sense of normality, also increases woman's sense of anxiety and vulnerability and therefore the need for supportive interventions that affirm normality is intensified. A maternity team approach, with a focus on providing 'balanced care' could meet all of the woman and child's medical needs, whilst also emphasising the normalcy of pregnancy.

Proposed role for COUP-TFII in regulating fetal Leydig cell steroidogenesis, perturbation of which leads to masculinization disorders in rodents

Reproductive disorders that are common/increasing in prevalence in human males may arise because of deficient androgen production/action during a fetal 'masculinization programming window'. We identify a potentially important role for Chicken Ovalbumin Upstream Promoter-Transcription Factor II (COUP-TFII) in Leydig cell (LC) steroidogenesis that may partly explain this. In rats, fetal LC size and intratesticular testosterone (ITT) increased ~3-fold between e15.5-e21.5 which associated with a progressive decrease in the percentage of LC expressing COUP-TFII. Exposure of fetuses to dibutyl phthalate (DBP), which induces masculinization disorders, dose-dependently prevented the age-related decrease in LC COUP-TFII expression and the normal increases in LC size and ITT. We show that nuclear COUP-TFII expression in fetal rat LC relates inversely to LC expression of steroidogenic factor-1 (SF-1)-dependent genes (StAR, Cyp11a1, Cyp17a1) with overlapping binding sites for SF-1 and COUP-TFII in their promoter regions, but does not affect an SF-1 dependent LC gene (3β-HSD) without overlapping sites. We also show that once COUP-TFII expression in LC has switched off, it is re-induced by DBP exposure, coincident with suppression of ITT. Furthermore, other treatments that reduce fetal ITT in rats (dexamethasone, diethylstilbestrol (DES)) also maintain/induce LC nuclear expression of COUP-TFII. In contrast to rats, in mice DBP neither causes persistence of fetal LC COUP-TFII nor reduces ITT, whereas DES-exposure of mice maintains COUP-TFII expression in fetal LC and decreases ITT, as in rats. These findings suggest that lifting of repression by COUP-TFII may be an important mechanism that promotes increased testosterone production by fetal LC to drive masculinization. As we also show an age-related decline in expression of COUP-TFII in human fetal LC, this mechanism may also be functional in humans, and its susceptibility to disruption by environmental chemicals, stress and pregnancy hormones could explain the origin of some human male reproductive disorders.

Lights and Shadows about the Effectiveness of IVF in HIV Infected Women: A Systematic Review

Background. HIV infected women have higher rates of infertility. Objective. The purpose of this literature review is to evaluate the effectiveness of fresh IVF/ICSI cycles in HIV infected women. Materials and Methods. A search of the PubMed database was performed to identify studies assessing fresh nondonor oocyte IVF/ICSI cycle outcomes of serodiscordant couples with an HIV infected female partner. Results and Discussion. Ten studies met the inclusion criteria. Whenever a comparison with a control group was available, with the exception of one case, ovarian stimulation cancelation rate was higher and pregnancy rate (PR) was lower in HIV infected women. However, statistically significant differences in both rates were only seen in one and two studies, respectively. A number of noncontrolled sources of bias for IVF outcome were identified. This fact, added to the small size of samples studied and heterogeneity in study design and methodology, still hampers the performance of a meta-analysis on the issue. Conclusion. Prospective matched case-control studies are necessary for the understanding of the specific effects of HIV infection on ovarian response and ART outcome.

PAPP-A y β-hCG libre como predictores de preeclampsia y bajo peso al nacer en una población latina

Introducción: La Preeclampsia ocurre entre el 2-7% de los embarazos. Previos estudios han sugerido la asociación entre los niveles alterados de PAPP-A y la β-hCG libre con el desarrollo de Preeclampsia (PE) y/o Bajo Peso al Nacer (BPN). Metodología: El diseño del estudio es de Prueba Diagnóstica con enfoque de casos y controles. Las mediciones séricas de PAPP-A y la β-hCG libre, fueron realizadas entre la semana 11-13.6 días durante 2 años. Resultados: La cohorte incluyó 399 pacientes, la incidencia de PE fue de 2,26% y de BPN fue de 14.54%. El punto de corte del percentil 10 fue MoM PAPP-A: 0,368293 y MoM β-hCG libre: 0,412268; la especificidad en PE leve fue de 90,5 y para BPN de 90. Los MoM de la β-hCG libre, la edad y el peso materno se comportan como factores de riesgo, mientras que mayores valores de MoM de la PAPP-A y mayor número de partos factores de protección. Para el BPEG severo la edad materna y la paridad se comportan como factores de riesgo, mientras que un aumento promedio de los valores de los MoM de la PAPP-A y la β-hCG libre, como factores de protección en el desarrollo de BPEG Severo. Conclusiones: Existe una relación significativa entre los valores alterados de PAPP-A y de β-hCG libre, valorados a la semana 11 a 13 con la incidencia de Preeclampsia y de Bajo Peso al nacer en fetos cromosómicamente normales, mostrando unos niveles significativamente más bajos a medida que aumentaba la severidad de la enfermedad.

Factores de riesgo para morbilidad materna extrema en gestantes

Introducción: La morbilidad materna extrema es un término usado para definir cualquier condición obstétrica severa que amenaza la vida y requiere una intervención médica urgente con el fin de prevenir la probable muerte materna. Con el presente estudio se pretendió evaluar los factores de riesgo para morbilidad materna extrema en las gestantes del Hospital Universitario Mayor. Metodología Se realizó un estudio de casos y controles, comparando pacientes con MME y sin MME en una relación de 1:1. Se realizó un muestreo aleatorio simple teniendo en cuenta 95% de la población apareadas por diagnóstico de ingreso. Resultados Se incluyeron un total de 110 pacientes (55 en cada grupo). Ambas poblaciones fueron comprables. Ser de estrato socioeconómico bajo (p 0,000), haber tenido 2 o menos partos (p 0,000), ser tipo de sangre negativo (p0.000) realizar entre 0-3 controles prenatales (p 0,000), tener antecedente de preeclampsia (p 0,000), hipotiroidismo (p 0,000), o trastorno bipolar (p 0,000), son factores de riesgo significativos para presentar MME. Entre los factores protectores están tener más de tres partos OR 0,60 (IC95%: 0,17-0,82, p=0,00) y 7 o más controles prenatales OR 0,23 (IC95%: 0,09-0,55, p=0,000). Resultados concordantes con la literatura Discusión: Es importante dar a conocer los resultados del presente estudio para promover las campañas de prevención primaria, secundaria y terciaria con el fin de evitar las altas complicaciones que se pueden presentar en las mujeres en edad fértil de nuestra población.

Effect of heparin and fractionated heparin on trophoblast invasion

BACKGROUND: Heparin can significantly reduce pregnancy complications in women with certain thrombophilias, such as antiphospholipid syndrome. Recent reports suggest that heparin may act by mechanisms other than anticoagulation. However, the effect of heparin on trophoblast biology in the absence of thrombophilia has not been extensively investigated. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate trophoblast invasion, using an established cell line and primary extravillous trophoblasts (EVTs), following exposure to heparin and fractionated heparin. METHODS: An EVT cell line (SGHPL-4) was used to study invasion in the presence of hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) and varying concentrations of fractionated and unfractionated heparin. These experiments were repeated using first trimester primary EVTs. RESULTS: Both forms of heparin significantly reduced HGF-induced invasion in the SGHPL-4 cell line. This suppression of invasion appeared to be dose-dependent for fractionated heparin. In primary EVT cells, fractionated heparin also demonstrated significant suppression of invasion. CONCLUSIONS: Heparin has the potential to reduce trophoblast invasion in cell lines and first trimester EVT cells. This article highlights the need for further evaluation of these medications in vitro and in vivo, especially when used in the absence of thrombophilic disorders.

'Ultrasound is an invaluable third eye, but it can't see everything' : a qualitative study with obstetricians in Australia

Background: Obstetric ultrasound has come to play a significant role in obstetrics since its introduction in clinical care. Today, most pregnant women in the developed world are exposed to obstetric ultrasound examinations, and there is no doubt that the advantages of obstetric ultrasound technique have led to improvements in pregnancy outcomes. However, at the same time, the increasing use has also raised many ethical challenges. This study aimed to explore obstetricians' experiences of the significance of obstetric ultrasound for clinical management of complicated pregnancy and their perceptions of expectant parents' experiences. Methods: A qualitative study was undertaken in November 2012 as part of the CROss-Country Ultrasound Study (CROCUS). Semi-structured individual interviews were held with 14 obstetricians working at two large hospitals in Victoria, Australia. Transcribed data underwent qualitative content analysis. Results: An overall theme emerged during the analyses, 'Obstetric ultrasound - a third eye', reflecting the significance and meaning of ultrasound in pregnancy, and the importance of the additional information that ultrasound offers clinicians managing the surveillance of a pregnant woman and her fetus. This theme was built on four categories: I:'Everyday-tool' for pregnancy surveillance, II: Significance for managing complicated pregnancy, III: Differing perspectives on obstetric ultrasound, and IV: Counselling as a balancing act. In summary, the obstetricians viewed obstetric ultrasound as an invaluable tool in their everyday practice. More importantly however, the findings emphasise some of the clinical dilemmas that occur due to its use: the obstetricians' and expectant parents' differing perspectives and expectations of obstetric ultrasound examinations, the challenges of uncertain ultrasound findings, and how this information was conveyed and balanced by obstetricians in counselling expectant parents. Conclusions: This study highlights a range of previously rarely acknowledged clinical dilemmas that obstetricians face in relation to the use of obstetric ultrasound. Despite being a tool of considerable significance in the surveillance of pregnancy, there are limitations and uncertainties that arise with its use that make counselling expectant parents challenging. Research is needed which further investigates the effects and experiences of the continuing worldwide rapid technical advances in surveillance of pregnancies.