Areas of high conservation value in Georgia: present and future threats by invasive alien plants

Georgia is known for its extraordinary rich biodiversity of plants, which may now be threatened due to the spread of invasive alien plants (IAP). We aimed to identify (i) the most prominent IAP out of 9 selected potentially invasive and harmful IAP IAP by predicting thetheir distribution of 9 selected IAP under current and future climate conditions in Georgia as well as in its 43 Protected Areas, as a proxy for areas of high conservation value and (ii) the Protected Areas most at risk due to these IAP. We used species distribution models based on 6 climate variables and then filtered the obtained distributions based on maps of soil and vegetation types, and on recorded occurrences, resulting into the predicted ecological distribution of the 9 IAP's at a resolution of 1km2. We foundOur habitat suitability analysis showed that Ambrosia artemisiifolia, (24% and 40%) Robinia pseudoacaia (14% and 19%) and Ailanthus altissima (9% and 11%) have the largest potential distribution are the most abundant (predicted % area covered)d) IAP, with Ailanthus altissima the potentially most increasing one over the next fifty years (from 9% to 13% and from 11% to 25%), for Georgia and the Protected Areas, respectively. Furthermore, our results show indicate two areas in Georgia that are under specifically high threat, i.e. the area around Tbilisi and an area in the western part of Georgia (Adjara), both at lower altitudes. Our procedure to identify areas of high conservation value most at risk by IAP has been applied for the first time. It will help national authorities in prioritizing their measures to protect Georgia's outstanding biodiversity from the negative impact of IAP.

The prognostic and predictive value of selected biomarkers in colorectal cancer

Tissue-based biomarkers are studied to receive information about the pathologic processes and cancer outcome, and to enable development of patient-tailored treatments. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential prognostic and/or predictive value of selected biomarkers in colorectal cancer (CRC). Group IIA secretory phospholipase A2 (IIA PLA2) expression was assessed in 114 samples presenting different phases of human colorectal carcinogenesis. Securin, Ki-67, CD44 variant 6 (CD44v6), aldehyde dehydrogenase 1 (ALDH1) and β-catenin were studied in a material including 227 rectal carcinoma patients treated with short-course preoperative radiotherapy (RT), long-course preoperative (chemo)RT (CRT) or surgery only. Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) gene copy number (GCN), its heterogeneity in CRC tissue, and association with response to EGFR-targeted antibodies cetuximab and panitumumab were analyzed in a cohort of 76 metastatic CRC. IIA PLA2 expression was decreased in invasive carcinomas compared to adenomas, but did not relate to patient survival. High securin expression after long-course (C)RT and high ALDH1 expression in node-negative rectal cancer were independent adverse prognostic factors, ALDH1 specifically in patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy. The lack of membranous CD44v6 in the rectal cancer invasive front associated with infiltrative growth pattern and the risk of disease recurrence. Heterogeneous EGFR GCN increase predicted benefit from EGFR-targeted antibodies, also in the chemorefractory patient population. In summary, high securin and ALDH1 protein expression independently relate to poor outcome in subgroups of rectal cancer patients, potentially because of resistance to conventional chemotherapeutics. Heterogeneous increase in EGFR GCN was validated to be a promising predictive factor in the treatment of metastatic CRC.

The Effect of Plant Closures on Market Value: Empirical Evidence from Pulp and Paper Industry 2004-2012

The aim of this study was to research how plant closure announcements affect the market value of the largest pulp and paper industry companies in the world. Also the effect of announcements on competitors was researched and whether the location of plants, timing, reasons for the closures, and characteristics of the closing firms and competitors have an impact on the results. The overall sample included 57 events in the years 2004-2012 and event study was used as a research method. Main theories were signaling theory and spillover effect. According to empirical results, investors consider plant closure announcements as a positive signal for market value. The spillover effect on competitors was, on average, positive and characteristics of the firms and closures had an effect on the results. Furthermore, the market generally predicted the closures and overreacted to them on the announcement day and after it. It is possible for corporate management and investors to learn from the results and use them as support for their decision making.

Whole crop cereals 2. Prediction of apparent digestibility and energy value from in vitro digestion techniques and near infrared reflectance spectroscopy and of chemical composition by near infrared reflectance spectroscopy

Samples of whole crop wheat (WCW, n = 134) and whole crop barley (WCB, n = 16) were collected from commercial farms in the UK over a 2-year period (2003/2004 and 2004/2005). Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) was compared with laboratory and in vitro digestibility measures to predict digestible organic matter in the dry matter (DOMD) and metabolisable energy (ME) contents measured in vivo using sheep. Spectral models using the mean spectra of two scans were compared with those using individual spectra (duplicate spectra). Overall NIRS accurately predicted the concentration of chemical components in whole crop cereals apart from crude protein. ammonia-nitrogen, water-soluble carbohydrates, fermentation acids and solubility values. In addition. the spectral models had higher prediction power for in vivo DOMD and ME than chemical components or in vitro digestion methods. Overall there Was a benefit from the use of duplicate spectra rather than mean spectra and this was especially so for predicting in vivo DOMD and ME where the sample population size was smaller. The spectral models derived deal equally well with WCW and WCB and Would he of considerable practical value allowing rapid determination of nutritive value of these forages before their use in diets of productive animals. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of moisture, calorific value, ash and carbon content of two dedicated bioenergy crops using near-infrared spectroscopy

The potential of near infrared spectroscopy in conjunction with partial least squares regression to predict Miscanthus xgiganteus and short rotation coppice willow quality indices was examined. Moisture, calorific value, ash and carbon content were predicted with a root mean square error of cross validation of 0.90% (R2 = 0.99), 0.13 MJ/kg (R2 = 0.99), 0.42% (R2 = 0.58), and 0.57% (R2 = 0.88), respectively. The moisture and calorific value prediction models had excellent accuracy while the carbon and ash models were fair and poor, respectively. The results indicate that near infrared spectroscopy has the potential to predict quality indices of dedicated energy crops, however the models must be further validated on a wider range of samples prior to implementation. The utilization of such models would assist in the optimal use of the feedstock based on its biomass properties.

Can efficiency of the photosensitizer be predicted by its photostability in solution?

We have investigated a possible correlation between the photostability and photodynamic efficacy for different photosensitizers; hematoporphyrin derivatives and chlorines. To perform such analysis, we combined the depth of necrosis (d (nec)) measurement, expressed by the light threshold dose and a photodegradation parameter, measured from investigation of photosensitizer degradation in solution. The d (nec) analysis allows us to determine the light threshold dose and compare its value with the existent results in the literature. The use of simple models to understand basic features of Photodynamic Therapy (PDT) may contribute to the solid establishment of dosimetry in PDT, enhancing its use in the clinical management of cancers and others lesions. Using hematoporphyrin derivatives and chlorines photosensitizers we investigated their properties related to the photodegradation in solution and the light threshold dose (D (th)) in rat livers.

Consumption smoothing in Latin America: an empirical assessment of present value models

The study aims to assess the empirical adherence of the permanent income theory and the consumption smoothing view in Latin America. Two present value models are considered, one describing household behavior and the other open economy macroeconomics. Following the methodology developed in Campbell and Schiller (1987), Bivariate Vector Autoregressions are estimated for the saving ratio and the real growth rate of income concerning the household behavior model and for the current account and the change in national cash ‡ow regarding the open economy model. The countries in the sample are considered separately in the estimation process (individual system estimation) as well as jointly (joint system estimation). Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SURE) estimates of the coe¢cients are generated. Wald Tests are then conducted to verify if the VAR coe¢cient estimates are in conformity with those predicted by the theory. While the empirical results are sensitive to the estimation method and discount factors used, there is only weak evidence in favor of the permanent income theory and consumption smoothing view in the group of countries analyzed.

Multi-trait and random regression mature weight heritability and breeding value estimates in Nelore cattle

Mature weight breeding values were estimated using a multi-trait animal model (MM) and a random regression animal model (RRM). Data consisted of 82 064 weight records from 8 145 animals, recorded from birth to eight years of age. Weights at standard ages were considered in the MM. All models included contemporary groups as fixed effects, and age of dam (linear and quadratic effects) and animal age as covariates. In the RRM, mean trends were modelled through a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of animal age and genetic maternal and direct and maternal permanent environmental effects were also included as random. Legendre polynomials of orders 4, 3, 6 and 3 were used for animal and maternal genetic and permanent environmental effects, respectively, considering five classes of residual variances. Mature weight (five years) direct heritability estimates were 0.35 (MM) and 0.38 (RRM). Rank correlation between sires' breeding values estimated by MM and RRM was 0.82. However, selecting the top 2% (12) or 10% (62) of the young sires based on the MM predicted breeding values, respectively 71% and 80% of the same sires would be selected if RRM estimates were used instead. The RRM modelled the changes in the (co)variances with age adequately and larger breeding value accuracies can be expected using this model. © South African Society for Animal Science.

GaMnAs: Position of Mn-d levels and majority spin band gap predicted from GGA-1/2 calculations

Among all magnetic semiconductors, GaMnAs seems to be the most important one. In this work, we present accurate first-principles calculations of GaMnAs within the GGA-1/2 approach: We concentrate our efforts in obtaining the position of the peak of Mn-d levels in the valence band and also the majority spin band gap. For the position of the Mn-d peak, we find a value of 3.3 eV below the Fermi level, in good agreement with the most recent experimental results of 3.5 and 3.7 eV. An analytical expression that fits the calculated E-g(x) for majority spin is derived in order to provide ready access to the band gap for the composition range from 0 to 0.25. We found a value of 3.9 eV for the gap bowing parameter. The results agree well with the most recent experimental data. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4718602]

Value Choice of Russia in the Reform Process: The Sociological Aspect

The transition in Central and Eastern Europe since the late 1980s has provided a testing ground for classic propositions. This project looked at the impact of privatisation on private consumption, using the Czech experiment of voucher privatisation to test the permanent income hypothesis. This form of privatisation moved state assets to individuals and represented an unexpected windfall gain for participants in the scheme. Whether the windfall was consumed or saved offers a clear test of the permanent income hypothesis. Of a total population of 10 million, 6 million Czechs, i.e. virtually every household, participated in the scheme,. In a January 1996 survey, 1263 individuals were interviewed , 75% of whom had taken part. The data obtained suggests that only a small quantity of transferred assets were cashed in and spent on consumption, providing support for the permanent income hypothesis. The fraction of the windfall consumed grows with age, as would be predicted from the lower life expectancy of older consumers. The most interesting deviation was for people aged 26 to 35, who apparently consumed more that they would if the windfall were annuitised. As these people are at the stage in their lives when they would otherwise be borrowing to cover consumption related to establishing a family, etc., this is however consistent with the permanent income hypothesis, which predicts that individuals who would otherwise borrow money would use the windfall to avoid doing so.

Survival in surgically treated, nodal positive prostate cancer patients is predicted by histopathological characteristics of the primary tumor and its lymph node metastases

BACKGROUND: Histopathological risk factors for survival stratification of surgically treated nodal positive prostate cancer patients are poorly defined as reflected by only one category for nodal metastases. METHODS: We evaluated biochemical recurrence-free survival (RFS), disease-specific survival (DSS), and overall survival (OS) in 102 nodal positive, hormone treatment-naïve prostate cancer patients (median age: 65 years, range: 45-75 years; median follow-up 7.7 years, range: 1.0-15.9 years) who underwent radical prostatectomy and standardized extended lymphadenectomy. RESULTS: A significant stratification was possible, with the Gleason score of the primary and virtually all nodal parameters favoring patients with better differentiated primaries and metastases, lower nodal tumor burden, and without extranodal extension of metastases. In multivariate analyses, diameter of the largest metastasis (< or =10 mm vs. >10 mm) was the strongest independent predictor for RFS (P < 0.001), DSS (P < 0.001), and OS (P < 0.001) with a more than quadrupled relative risk of cancer related deaths for patients with larger metastases (Hazard ratio: 4.2, Confidence interval: 2.0-8.9; 5-year RFS/DSS/OS: 18%/57%/54%). The highest 5-year survival rates were seen in patients with micrometastases only (RFS/DSS/OS: 47%/94%/94%). CONCLUSION: The TNM classification's current allocation of only one category for nodal metastases in prostate cancers is unsatisfactory since subgroups with significantly different prognoses can be identified. The diameter of the patient's largest metastasis (< or =10 mm vs. >10 mm) should be used for substaging because of its independent prognostic value. The substage "micrometastasis only" is also useful in nodal positive prostate cancer since it designates the subgroup with the most favorable outcome.

Limited predictive value of FDG-PET for response assessment in the preoperative treatment of esophageal cancer: results of a prospective multi-center trial (SAKK 75/02)

BACKGROUND: Only responding patients benefit from preoperative therapy for locally advanced esophageal carcinoma. Early detection of non-responders may avoid futile treatment and delayed surgery. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In a multi-center phase ll trial, patients with resectable, locally advanced esophageal carcinoma were treated with 2 cycles of induction chemotherapy followed by chemoradiotherapy (CRT) and surgery. Positron emission tomography with 2[fluorine-18]fluoro-2-deoxy-d-glucose (FDG-PET) was performed at baseline and after induction chemotherapy. The metabolic response was correlated with tumor regression grade (TRG). A decrease in FDG tumor uptake of less than 40% was prospectively hypothesized as a predictor for histopathological non-response (TRG > 2) after CRT. RESULTS: 45 patients were included. The median decrease in FDG tumor uptake after chemotherapy correlated well with TRG after completion of CRT (p = 0.021). For an individual patient, less than 40% decrease in FDG tumor uptake after induction chemotherapy predicted histopathological non-response after completion of CRT, with a sensitivity of 68% and a specificity of 52% (positive predictive value 58%, negative predictive value 63%). CONCLUSIONS: Metabolic response correlated with histopathology after preoperative therapy. However, FDG-PET did not predict non-response after induction chemotherapy with sufficient clinical accuracy to justify withdrawal of subsequent CRT and selection of patients to proceed directly to surgery.

Effect of Frame Size and Hormone Implant on Performance and Carcass Characteristics of Finishing Yearling Heifers: Returns to a Value-Based Market

Four groups of yearling heifers representing different frame sizes—small, medium, and large Angus and medium Simmental—were fed high-grain finishing diets to average Low Choice quality grade. Half the heifers were implanted with estrogen and trenbolone acetate. Backfat and ribeye area were measured by ultrasound four times during the study to assess growth of muscle and fat. Increasing frame size resulted in increased feed intake, greater rates of gain, and a trend towards reduced feed conversion. Greater returns would have been realized from each of the four groups had they been sold in a premium market based on yield grade rather than the conventional grade and yield market. Increasing frame size resulted in greater returns to the value-based market. Implants increased rate of gain and improved feed conversion but did not result in significantly greater returns to the value-based market compared with the grade and yield market. Ribeye area and backfat increased with body weight and time on feed. Increase in ribeye area was linear with time, whereas accumulation of backfat was exponential. Rate of increase in area of ribeye tended to increase and backfat tended to decrease as frame size increased. Implants increased rate of increase in ribeye area but had no effect on rate of deposition of subcutaneous fat. Equations describing growth of ribeye area and backfat for each group predicted average growth for the heifers but did not predict growth of individual heifers. Final carcass yield grade was related to initial thickness of backfat but not to initial ribeye area. These results indicate that the type of cattle selected to be fed for a premium market based on yield grade is important to the success of the program. More work is needed to develop growth equations from ultrasound measurements, but ultrasound will likely be a useful tool in selecting feeder cattle for a value-based market.

Using Bayes' rule to define the value of evidence from syndromic surveillance

In this work we propose the adoption of a statistical framework used in the evaluation of forensic evidence as a tool for evaluating and presenting circumstantial "evidence" of a disease outbreak from syndromic surveillance. The basic idea is to exploit the predicted distributions of reported cases to calculate the ratio of the likelihood of observing n cases given an ongoing outbreak over the likelihood of observing n cases given no outbreak. The likelihood ratio defines the Value of Evidence (V). Using Bayes' rule, the prior odds for an ongoing outbreak are multiplied by V to obtain the posterior odds. This approach was applied to time series on the number of horses showing clinical respiratory symptoms or neurological symptoms. The separation between prior beliefs about the probability of an outbreak and the strength of evidence from syndromic surveillance offers a transparent reasoning process suitable for supporting decision makers. The value of evidence can be translated into a verbal statement, as often done in forensics or used for the production of risk maps. Furthermore, a Bayesian approach offers seamless integration of data from syndromic surveillance with results from predictive modeling and with information from other sources such as disease introduction risk assessments.

Twelve-month psychosis-predictive value of the ultra-high risk criteria in children and adolescents

Objective The validity of current ultra-high risk (UHR) criteria is under-examined in help-seeking minors, particularly, in children below the age of 12 years. Thus, the present study investigated predictors of one-year outcome in children and adolescents (CAD) with UHR status. Method Thirty-five children and adolescents (age 9–17 years) meeting UHR criteria according to the Structured Interview for Psychosis-Risk Syndromes were followed-up for 12 months. Regression analyses were employed to detect baseline predictors of conversion to psychosis and of outcome of non-converters (remission and persistence of UHR versus conversion). Results At one-year follow-up, 20% of patients had developed schizophrenia, 25.7% had remitted from their UHR status that, consequently, had persisted in 54.3%. No patient had fully remitted from mental disorders, even if UHR status was not maintained. Conversion was best predicted by any transient psychotic symptom and a disorganized communication score. No prediction model for outcome beyond conversion was identified. Conclusions Our findings provide the first evidence for the predictive utility of UHR criteria in CAD in terms of brief intermittent psychotic symptoms (BIPS) when accompanied by signs of cognitive impairment, i.e. disorganized communication. However, because attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS) related to thought content and perception were indicative of non-conversion at 1-year follow-up, their use in early detection of psychosis in CAD needs further study. Overall, the need for more in-depth studies into developmental peculiarities in the early detection and treatment of psychoses with an onset of illness in childhood and early adolescence was further highlighted.