996 resultados para Precipitation methods
Resumo:
Sensitive methods that are currently used to monitor proteolysis by plasmin in milk are limited due to 7 their high cost and lack of standardisation for quality assurance in the various dairy laboratories. In 8 this study, four methods, trinitrobenzene sulphonic acid (TNBS), reverse phase high pressure liquid 9 chromatography (RP-HPLC), gel electrophoresis and fluorescamine, were selected to assess their 10 suitability for the detection of proteolysis in milk by plasmin. Commercial UHT milk was incubated 11 with plasmin at 37 °C for one week. Clarification was achieved by isoelectric precipitation (pH 4·6 12 soluble extracts)or 6% (final concentration) trichloroacetic acid (TCA). The pH 4·6 and 6% TCA 13 soluble extracts of milk showed high correlations (R2 > 0·93) by the TNBS, fluorescamine and 14 RP-HPLC methods, confirming increased proteolysis during storage. For gel electrophoresis,15 extensive proteolysis was confirmed by the disappearance of α- and β-casein bands on the seventh 16 day, which was more evident in the highest plasmin concentration. This was accompanied by the 17 appearance of α- and β-casein proteolysis products with higher intensities than on previous days, 18 implying that more products had been formed as a result of casein breakdown. The fluorescamine 19 method had a lower detection limit compared with the other methods, whereas gel electrophoresis 20 was the best qualitative method for monitoring β-casein proteolysis products. Although HPLC was the 21 most sensitive, the TNBS method is recommended for use in routine laboratory analysis on the basis 22 of its accuracy, reliability and simplicity.
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We have developed a new Bayesian approach to retrieve oceanic rain rate from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), with an emphasis on typhoon cases in the West Pacific. Retrieved rain rates are validated with measurements of rain gauges located on Japanese islands. To demonstrate improvement, retrievals are also compared with those from the TRMM/Precipitation Radar (PR), the Goddard Profiling Algorithm (GPROF), and a multi-channel linear regression statistical method (MLRS). We have found that qualitatively, all methods retrieved similar horizontal distributions in terms of locations of eyes and rain bands of typhoons. Quantitatively, our new Bayesian retrievals have the best linearity and the smallest root mean square (RMS) error against rain gauge data for 16 typhoon overpasses in 2004. The correlation coefficient and RMS of our retrievals are 0.95 and ~2 mm hr-1, respectively. In particular, at heavy rain rates, our Bayesian retrievals outperform those retrieved from GPROF and MLRS. Overall, the new Bayesian approach accurately retrieves surface rain rate for typhoon cases. Accurate rain rate estimates from this method can be assimilated in models to improve forecast and prevent potential damages in Taiwan during typhoon seasons.
Conditioning model output statistics of regional climate model precipitation on circulation patterns
Resumo:
Dynamical downscaling of Global Climate Models (GCMs) through regional climate models (RCMs) potentially improves the usability of the output for hydrological impact studies. However, a further downscaling or interpolation of precipitation from RCMs is often needed to match the precipitation characteristics at the local scale. This study analysed three Model Output Statistics (MOS) techniques to adjust RCM precipitation; (1) a simple direct method (DM), (2) quantile-quantile mapping (QM) and (3) a distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach. The modelled precipitation was daily means from 16 RCMs driven by ERA40 reanalysis data over the 1961–2000 provided by the ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts) project over a small catchment located in the Midlands, UK. All methods were conditioned on the entire time series, separate months and using an objective classification of Lamb's weather types. The performance of the MOS techniques were assessed regarding temporal and spatial characteristics of the precipitation fields, as well as modelled runoff using the HBV rainfall-runoff model. The results indicate that the DBS conditioned on classification patterns performed better than the other methods, however an ensemble approach in terms of both climate models and downscaling methods is recommended to account for uncertainties in the MOS methods.
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The Northern Hemisphere monsoons are an integral component of Earth's hydrological cycle and affect the lives of billions of people. Observed precipitation in the monsoon regions underwent substantial changes during the second half of the 20th century, with drying from the 1950s to mid-1980s and increasing precipitation in recent decades. Modeling studies suggest anthropogenic aerosols has been a key factor driving changes in tropical and monsoon precipitation. Here we apply detection and attribution methods to determine whether observed changes are driven by human influences using fingerprints of individual forcings (i.e. greenhouse gas, anthropogenic aerosol and natural) derived from climate models. The results show that the observed changes can only be explained when including the influence of anthropogenic aerosols, even after accounting for internal climate variability. Anthropogenic aerosol, not greenhouse gas or natural forcing, has been the dominant influence on Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation over the second half of the 20th century.
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As part of an international intercomparison project, a set of single column models (SCMs) and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are run under the weak temperature gradient (WTG) method and the damped gravity wave (DGW) method. For each model, the implementation of the WTG or DGW method involves a simulated column which is coupled to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative-convective equilibrium. The simulated column has the same surface conditions as the reference state and is initialized with profiles from the reference state. We performed systematic comparison of the behavior of different models under a consistent implementation of the WTG method and the DGW method and systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in models with different physics and numerics. CRMs and SCMs produce a variety of behaviors under both WTG and DGW methods. Some of the models reproduce the reference state while others sustain a large-scale circulation which results in either substantially lower or higher precipitation compared to the value of the reference state. CRMs show a fairly linear relationship between precipitation and circulation strength. SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. Some SCMs under the WTG method produce zero precipitation. Within an individual SCM, a DGW simulation and a corresponding WTG simulation can produce different signed circulation. When initialized with a dry troposphere, DGW simulations always result in a precipitating equilibrium state. The greatest sensitivities to the initial moisture conditions occur for multiple stable equilibria in some WTG simulations, corresponding to either a dry equilibrium state when initialized as dry or a precipitating equilibrium state when initialized as moist. Multiple equilibria are seen in more WTG simulations for higher SST. In some models, the existence of multiple equilibria is sensitive to some parameters in the WTG calculations.
Resumo:
As part of an international intercomparison project, the weak temperature gradient (WTG) and damped gravity wave (DGW) methods are used to parameterize large-scale dynamics in a set of cloud-resolving models (CRMs) and single column models (SCMs). The WTG or DGW method is implemented using a configuration that couples a model to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative-convective equilibrium. We investigated the sensitivity of each model to changes in SST, given a fixed reference state. We performed a systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in different models, and a systematic comparison of the behavior of those models using the WTG method and the DGW method. The sensitivity to the SST depends on both the large-scale parameterization method and the choice of the cloud model. In general, SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. All CRMs using either the WTG or DGW method show an increase of precipitation with SST, while SCMs show sensitivities which are not always monotonic. CRMs using either the WTG or DGW method show a similar relationship between mean precipitation rate and column-relative humidity, while SCMs exhibit a much wider range of behaviors. DGW simulations produce large-scale velocity profiles which are smoother and less top-heavy compared to those produced by the WTG simulations. These large-scale parameterization methods provide a useful tool to identify the impact of parameterization differences on model behavior in the presence of two-way feedback between convection and the large-scale circulation.
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Understanding how human influence on climate is affecting precipitation around the world is immensely important for defining mitigation policies, and for adaptation planning. Yet despite increasing evidence for the influence of climate change on global patterns of precipitation, and expectations that significant changes in regional precipitation should have already occurred as a result of human influence on climate, compelling evidence of anthropogenic fingerprints on regional precipitation is obscured by observational and modelling uncertainties and is likely to remain so using current methods for years to come. This is in spite of substantial ongoing improvements in models, new reanalyses and a satellite record that spans over thirty years. If we are to quantify how human-induced climate change is affecting the regional water cycle, we need to consider novel ways of identifying the effects of natural and anthropogenic influences on precipitation that take full advantage of our physical expectations.
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Allvac 718 Plus and Haynes 282 are relatively new precipitation hardening nickel based superalloys with good high temperature mechanical properties. In addition, the weldability of these superalloys enhances easy fabrication. The combination of high temperature capabilities and superior weldability is unmatched by other precipitation hardening superalloys and linked to the amount of the γ’ hardening precipitates in the materials. Hence, it is these properties that make Allvac 718 Plus and Haynes 282 desirable in the manufacture of hot sections of aero engine components. Studies show that cast products are less weldable than wrought products. Segregation of elements in the cast results in inhomogeneous composition which consequently diminishes weldability. Segregation during solidification of the cast products results in dendritic microstructure with the segregating elements occupying interdendritic regions. These segregating elements are trapped in secondary phases present alongside γ matrix. Studies show that in Allvac 718Plus, the segregating phase is Laves while in Haynes 282 the segregating phase is not yet fully determined. Thus, the present study investigated the effects of homogenization heat treatments in eliminating segregation in cast Allvac 718 Plus and Haynes 282. Paramount to the study was the effect of different homogenization temperatures and dwell time in the removal of the segregating phases. Experimental methods used to both qualify and quantify the segregating phases included SEM, EDX analysis, manual point count and macro Vickers hardness tests. Main results show that there is a reduction in the segregating phases in both materials as homogenization proceeds hence a disappearance of the dendritic structure. In Allvac 718 Plus, plate like structures is observed to be closely associated with the Laves phase at low temperatures and dwell times. In addition, Nb is found to be segregating in the interdendritic areas. The expected trend of increase in Laves as a result of the dissolution of the plate like structures at the initial stage of homogenization is only detectable for few cases. In Haynes 282, white and grey phases are clearly distinguished and Mo is observed to be segregating in interdendritic areas.
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The Ag precipitation and dissolution reactions in the Cu-3 wt.% Al-4 wt.% Ag alloy were studied using isothermal and non-isothermal analyses. The activation energy values, obtained for the Ag precipitation reaction indicated that, when the Kissinger, Ozawa and Johnson-MehI-Avrami methods are compared, the Kissinger method is the most appropriate. Although the Johnson-Mehl-Avrami equation often does not fit precipitation data, the energy values obtained for Ag precipitation kinetics are in agreement with what was experimentally observed. For the dissolution reaction of Ag precipitates the activation energy values obtained from the Kissinger and Ozawa methods are higher than that found in the literature for the Ag dissolution in Cu. This discrepancy seems to be related to the fact that the activation energy is influenced by the heating rate. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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A comparative study of nine assay methods for dextransucrase and related enzymes has been made. A relatively widespread method for the reaction of dextransucrase with sucrose is the measurement of the reducing value of D-fructose by alkaline 3,5-dinitrosalicylate (DNS) and thereby the amount of D-glucose incorporated into dextran. Another method is the reaction with C-14-sucrose with the addition of an aliquot to Whatman 3MM paper squares that are washed three times with methanol to remove C-14-D-fructose and unreacted C-14-sucrose, followed by counting of C-14-dextran on the paper by liquid scintillation counting (LSC). It is shown that both methods give erroneous results. The DNS reducing value method gives extremely high values due to over-oxidation of both D-fructose and dextran, and the C-14-paper square method gives significantly low values due to the removal of some of the C-14-dextran from the paper by methanol washes. In the present study, we have examined nine methods and find two that give values that are identical and are an accurate measurement of the dextransucrase reaction. They are (1) a C-14-sucrose/dextransucrase digest in which dextran is precipitated three times with three volumes of ethanol, dissolved in water, and added to paper and counted in a toluene cocktail by LSC: and (2) precipitation of dextran three times with three volumes of ethanol from a sucrose/dextransucrase digest, dried, and weighed. Four reducing value methods were examined to measure the amount of D-fructose. Three of the four (two DNS methods, one with both dextran and D-fructose and the other with only D-fructose, and the ferricyanide/arsenomolybdate method with is-fructose) gave extremely high values due to over-oxidation of D-fructose, D-glucose, leucrose, and dextran. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Objectives: Stimulation of salivary flow is considered a preventive strategy for dental erosion. Alternatively, products containing calcium phosphate, such as a complex of casein phosphopeptide–amorphous calcium phosphate (CPP–ACP), have also been tested against dental erosion. Therefore, this in situ study analyzed the effect of chewing gum containing CPP–ACP on the mineral precipitation of initial bovine enamel erosion lesions. Methods: Twelve healthy adult subjects wore palatal appliances with two eroded bovine enamel samples. The erosion lesions were produced by immersion in 0.1% citric acid (pH 2.5) for 7 min. During three experimental crossover in situ phases (1 day each), the subjects chewed a type of gum, 3 times for 30 min, in each phase: with CPP–ACP (trident total), without CPP–ACP (trident), and no chewing gum (control). The Knoop surface microhardness was measured at baseline, after erosion in vitro and the mineral precipitation in situ. The differences in the degree of mineral precipitation were analyzed using repeated measures (RM-) ANOVA and post hoc Tukey’s test ( p < 0.05). Results: Significant differences were found among the remineralizing treatments ( p < 0.0001). Chewing gum (19% of microhardness recovery) improved the mineral precipitation compared to control (10%) and the addition of CPP–ACP into the gum promoted the best mineral precipitation effect (30%). Conclusions: Under this protocol, CPP–ACP chewing gum improved the mineral precipitation of eroded enamel. Clinical significance: Since the prevalence of dental erosion is steadily increasing, CPP–ACP chewing gum might be an important strategy to reduce th eprogression of initial erosion lesions.
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We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October–March) at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950–2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series). Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin) have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series) is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa) has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus) show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous ascent motions and an increase of the low- to mid-tropospheric moisture. Furthermore, the jet stream position (during ≥5-year return level events) supports the eastern basin being in a divergence area, where ascent motions are favoured. Our results contribute to an improved understanding of daily precipitation extremes in the cold season and associated large scale atmospheric features.
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Lichens are a key component of forest biodiversity. However, a comprehensive study analyzing lichen species richness in relation to several management types, extending over different regions and forest stages and including information on site conditions is missing for temperate European forests. In three German regions (Schwäbische Alb, Hainich-Dün, Schorfheide-Chorin), the so-called Biodiversity Exploratories, we studied lichen species richness in 631 forest plots of 400 m2 comprising different management types (unmanaged, selection cutting, deciduous and coniferous age-class forests resulting from clear cutting or shelterwood logging), various stand ages, and site conditions, typical for large parts of temperate Europe. We analyzed how lichen species richness responds to management and habitat variables (standing biomass, cover of deadwood, cover of rocks). We found strong regional differences with highest lichen species richness in the Schwäbische Alb, probably driven by regional differences in former air pollution, and in precipitation and habitat variables. Overall, unmanaged forests harbored 22% more threatened lichen species than managed age-class forests. In general, total, corticolous, and threatened lichen species richness did not differ among management types of deciduous forests. However, in the Schwäbische-Alb region, deciduous forests had 61% more lichen species than coniferous forests and they had 279% more threatened and 76% more corticolous lichen species. Old deciduous age classes were richer in corticolous lichen species than young ones, while old coniferous age-classes were poorer than young ones. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of stand continuity for conservation. To increase total and threatened lichen species richness we suggest (1) conserving unmanaged forests, (2) promoting silvicultural methods assuring stand continuity, (3) conserving old trees in managed forests, (4) promoting stands of native deciduous tree species instead of coniferous plantations, and (5) increasing the amount of deadwood in forests.
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This study aims at assessing the skill of several climate field reconstruction techniques (CFR) to reconstruct past precipitation over continental Europe and the Mediterranean at seasonal time scales over the last two millennia from proxy records. A number of pseudoproxy experiments are performed within the virtual reality ofa regional paleoclimate simulation at 45 km resolution to analyse different aspects of reconstruction skill. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), two versions of an Analog Method (AM) and Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) are applied to reconstruct precipitation from a synthetic network of pseudoproxies that are contaminated with various types of noise. The skill of the derived reconstructions is assessed through comparison with precipitation simulated by the regional climate model. Unlike BHM, CCA systematically underestimates the variance. The AM can be adjusted to overcome this shortcoming, presenting an intermediate behaviour between the two aforementioned techniques. However, a trade-off between reconstruction-target correlations and reconstructed variance is the drawback of all CFR techniques. CCA (BHM) presents the largest (lowest) skill in preserving the temporal evolution, whereas the AM can be tuned to reproduce better correlation at the expense of losing variance. While BHM has been shown to perform well for temperatures, it relies heavily on prescribed spatial correlation lengths. While this assumption is valid for temperature, it is hardly warranted for precipitation. In general, none of the methods outperforms the other. All experiments agree that a dense and regularly distributed proxy network is required to reconstruct precipitation accurately, reflecting its high spatial and temporal variability. This is especially true in summer, when a specifically short de-correlation distance from the proxy location is caused by localised summertime convective precipitation events.
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The Mediterranean region has been identified as a global warming hotspot, where future climate impacts are expected to have significant consequences on societal and ecosystem well-being. To put ongoing trends of summer climate into the context of past natural variability, we reconstructed climate from maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements of Pinus heldreichii (1521–2010) and latewood width (LWW) of Pinus nigra (1617–2010) on Mt. Olympus, Greece. Previous research in the northeastern Mediterranean has primarily focused on inter-annual variability, omitting any low-frequency trends. The present study utilizes methods capable of retaining climatically driven long-term behavior of tree growth. The LWW chronology corresponds closely to early summer moisture variability (May–July, r = 0.65, p < 0.001, 1950–2010), whereas the MXD-chronology relates mainly to late summer warmth (July–September, r = 0.64, p < 0.001; 1899–2010). The chronologies show opposing patterns of decadal variability over the twentieth century (r = −0.68, p < 0.001) and confirm the importance of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (sNAO) for summer climate in the northeastern Mediterranean, with positive sNAO phases inducing cold anomalies and enhanced cloudiness and precipitation. The combined reconstructions document the late twentieth—early twenty-first century warming and drying trend, but indicate generally drier early summer and cooler late summer conditions in the period ~1700–1900 CE. Our findings suggest a potential decoupling between twentieth century atmospheric circulation patterns and pre-industrial climate variability. Furthermore, the range of natural climate variability stretches beyond summer moisture availabilityobserved in recent decades and thus lends credibility to the significant drying trends projected for this region in current Earth System Model simulations.