Predicting the onset of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk: practical guide to probabilistic prognostic reasoning

Prediction of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk (CHR) has become a mainstream focus of clinical and research interest worldwide. When using CHR instruments for clinical purposes, the predicted outcome is but only a probability; and, consequently, any therapeutic action following the assessment is based on probabilistic prognostic reasoning. Yet, probabilistic reasoning makes considerable demands on the clinicians. We provide here a scholarly practical guide summarising the key concepts to support clinicians with probabilistic prognostic reasoning in the CHR state. We review risk or cumulative incidence of psychosis in, person-time rate of psychosis, Kaplan-Meier estimates of psychosis risk, measures of prognostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity in receiver operator characteristic curves, positive and negative predictive values, Bayes’ theorem, likelihood ratios, potentials and limits of real-life applications of prognostic probabilistic reasoning in the CHR state. Understanding basic measures used for prognostic probabilistic reasoning is a prerequisite for successfully implementing the early detection and prevention of psychosis in clinical practice. Future refinement of these measures for CHR patients may actually influence risk management, especially as regards initiating or withholding treatment.

Risk management at board level: a practical guide for board members

isk Management today has moved from being the topic of top level conferences and media discussions to being a permanent issue in the board and top management agenda. Several new directives and regulations in Switzerland, Germany and EU make it obligatory for the firms to have a risk management strategy and transparently disclose the risk management process to their stakeholders. Shareholders, insurance providers, banks, media, analysts, employees, suppliers and other stakeholders expect the board members to be pro-active in knowing the critical risks facing their organization and provide them with a reasonable assurance vis-à-vis the management of those risks. In this environment however, the lack of standards and training opportunities makes this task difficult for board members. This book with the help of real life examples, analysis of drivers, interpretation of the Swiss legal requirements, and information based on international benchmarks tries to reach out to the forward looking leaders of today's businesses. The authors have collectively brought their years of scientific and practical experience in risk management, Swiss law and board memberships together to provide the board members practical solutions in risk management. The desire is that this book will clear the fear regarding risk management from the minds of the company leadership and help them in making risk savvy decisions in quest to achieve their strategic objectives.

Practical guide to thorough bass

written by A. F. C. Kollmann

Global Linear Instability at the Dawn of its 4th Decade: A List of Challenges (A Practical Guide on how to Contain the Euphoria and Avoid the Oversell)

Global linear instability theory is concerned with the temporal or spatial development of small-amplitude perturbations superposed upon laminar steady or time-periodic threedimensional flows, which are inhomogeneous in two (and periodic in one) or all three spatial directions.1 The theory addresses flows developing in complex geometries, in which the parallel or weakly nonparallel basic flow approximation invoked by classic linear stability theory does not hold. As such, global linear theory is called to fill the gap in research into stability and transition in flows over or through complex geometries. Historically, global linear instability has been (and still is) concerned with solution of multi-dimensional eigenvalue problems; the maturing of non-modal linear instability ideas in simple parallel flows during the last decade of last century2–4 has given rise to investigation of transient growth scenarios in an ever increasing variety of complex flows. After a brief exposition of the theory, connections are sought with established approaches for structure identification in flows, such as the proper orthogonal decomposition and topology theory in the laminar regime and the open areas for future research, mainly concerning turbulent and three-dimensional flows, are highlighted. Recent results obtained in our group are reported in both the time-stepping and the matrix-forming approaches to global linear theory. In the first context, progress has been made in implementing a Jacobian-Free Newton Krylov method into a standard finite-volume aerodynamic code, such that global linear instability results may now be obtained in compressible flows of aeronautical interest. In the second context a new stable very high-order finite difference method is implemented for the spatial discretization of the operators describing the spatial BiGlobal EVP, PSE-3D and the TriGlobal EVP; combined with sparse matrix treatment, all these problems may now be solved on standard desktop computers.