In search of climate effects on Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) stock off the U.S. Atlantic coast with Bayesian state-space biomass dynamic models

Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) production dynamics along the U.S. Atlantic coast are regulated by fishing and winter water temperature. Stakeholders for this resource have recommended investigating the effects of climate covariates in assessment models. This study used state-space biomass dynamic models without (model 1) and with (model 2) the minimum winter estuarine temperature (MWET) to examine MWET effects on Atlantic Croaker population dynamics during 1972–2008. In model 2, MWET was introduced into the intrinsic rate of population increase (r). For both models, a prior probability distribution (prior) was constructed for r or a scaling parameter (r0); imputs were the fishery removals, and fall biomass indices developed by using data from the Multispecies Bottom Trawl Survey of the Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, and the Coastal Trawl Survey of the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program. Model sensitivity runs incorporated a uniform (0.01,1.5) prior for r or r0 and bycatch data from the shrimp-trawl fishery. All model variants produced similar results and therefore supported the conclusion of low risk of overfishing for the Atlantic Croaker stock in the 2000s. However, the data statistically supported only model 1 and its configuration that included the shrimp-trawl fishery bycatch. The process errors of these models showed slightly positive and significant correlations with MWET, indicating that warmer winters would enhance Atlantic Croaker biomass production. Inconclusive, somewhat conflicting results indicate that biomass dynamic models should not integrate MWET, pending, perhaps, accumulation of longer time series of the variables controlling the production dynamics of Atlantic Croaker, preferably including winter-induced estimates of Atlantic Croaker kills.

Radiolarian flux in the Santa Barbara Basin as an index of climate variability

Annual radiolarian flux (1954-1986) extrapolated from varved Santa Barbara Basin sediments was compared to instrumental data to examine the effect of interannual climate variability. Paleo-reconstructions over large geographic areas or 10^3 years and longer typically rely on changes in species composition to signal environment or climate shifts. In the relatively short period studied, climate fluctuations were insufficient to significantly alter the assemblage, but there was considerable variability in the total flux of radiolarians. This variability, greatest on 5- to 25-year time scales, appears to be linked to regional climate variability. Total flux correlates to regional California sea surface temperature and the composite of sea level pressure over the Northern Hemisphere for years of high radiolarian flux resembles positive PNA circulation.

Geographical distribution of testate amoebae in Tibet and northwestern Yunnan and their relationships with climate

In Asia, especially in China, our knowledge of the distribution of testate amoebae is still limited. In this paper, the geographical distribution of testate amoebae in Tibetan Plateau and northwestern Yunnan Plateau, southwest China and their relationships with the climatic factors have been studied. We found testate amoebae shifted in the most dominant species and increased in species (or genus) richness from northwest to southeast. Further, the linear regression analyses revealed that both species richness and genus richness have higher positive correlations with the mean temperature of the warmest month and annual mean precipitation as contrasted with the mean altitude, which showed weak negative correlation. This indicates that the temperature and precipitation are more significant influences on the richness than the altitude. The cluster analysis based on the community structure, defined by Sorenson's coefficient matrix, suggested four groups from the 10 physiographical regions. This geographical distribution pattern was also closely related with the climatic regionalization. The present climatic regionalization pattern of the study area originated from the uplift of Tibetan Plateau and mainly occurred in or after the late Pleistocene. Therefore, the geographical distribution of testate amoebae in our study area may have experienced complicated and drastic changes corresponding to the variation of the climate caused by the geological events.

A Simulative Study on Effects of Climate Warming on Nutrient Contents and In Vitro Digestibility of Herbage Grown in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

The increasing trend of air temperature along with the climate warming has been accepted gradual-ly by scientists and by the general public. Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, a unique geographic unit due to high-altitude climate, is one of the most susceptible regions to climate warming. Its ecosystem is very fragile and sensi-tive to climate change. In order to get a better understanding of the impacts of climate warming on the nutrient contents of herbage grown in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, a simulative study was implemented at Daban Moutain by using temperature differences resulted from sites selected at different altitudes and nutrient contents and in vitro digestibility were determined for assessing the quality of the grown herbage. There were significant downtrends in crude protein (CP), ether extract (EE) and nitrogen free extract (NFE) contents of herbage along with the increase of temperature. It had a positive correlation between temperature and content of acid detergent fibre (ADF), acid detergent lignin (ADL) in herbage. In vitro digestibility of herbage decreased along with the in-crease of temperature. The results of this study indicated that climate warming significantly influence nutrient contents and in vitro digestibility of herbage grown in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. It is suggested that the future climate warming especially the gradual rise of the night temperature could cause negative effect on herbage quality grown in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau by decreasing CP, EE, and NFE contents and increasing some indi-gestible ingredients such as crude fibre (CF), neutral detergent fibre (NDF), ADF, and ADL. This, conse-quently, decreases the ruminant assimilation ability.

Global negative vegetation feedback to climate warming responses of leaf litter decomposition rates in cold biomes

Whether climate change will turn cold biomes from large long-term carbon sinks into sources is hotly debated because of the great potential for ecosystem-mediated feedbacks to global climate. Critical are the direction, magnitude and generality of climate responses of plant litter decomposition. Here, we present the first quantitative analysis of the major climate-change-related drivers of litter decomposition rates in cold northern biomes worldwide. Leaf litters collected from the predominant species in 33 global change manipulation experiments in circum-arctic-alpine ecosystems were incubated simultaneously in two contrasting arctic life zones. We demonstrate that longer-term, large-scale changes to leaf litter decomposition will be driven primarily by both direct warming effects and concomitant shifts in plant growth form composition, with a much smaller role for changes in litter quality within species. Specifically, the ongoing warming-induced expansion of shrubs with recalcitrant leaf litter across cold biomes would constitute a negative feedback to global warming. Depending on the strength of other (previously reported) positive feedbacks of shrub expansion on soil carbon turnover, this may partly counteract direct warming enhancement of litter decomposition.

Modeling endogenous technological change for climate policy analysis

The approach used to model technological change in a climate policy model is a critical determinant of its results in terms of the time path of CO2 prices and costs required to achieve various emission reduction goals. We provide an overview of the different approaches used in the literature, with an emphasis on recent developments regarding endogenous technological change, research and development, and learning. Detailed examination sheds light on the salient features of each approach, including strengths, limitations, and policy implications. Key issues include proper accounting for the opportunity costs of climate-related knowledge generation, treatment of knowledge spillovers and appropriability, and the empirical basis for parameterizing technological relationships. No single approach appears to dominate on all these dimensions, and different approaches may be preferred depending on the purpose of the analysis, be it positive or normative. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of land use change and climate variations on annual inflow into Miyun Reservoir,Beijing, China

The Miyun Reservoir, the only surface water source for Beijing city, has experienced water supply decline in recent decades. Previous studies suggest that both land use change and climate contribute to the changes of water supply in this critical watershed. However, the specific causes of the decline in the Miyun Reservoir are debatable under a non-stationary climate in the past 4 decades. The central objective of this study was to quantify the separate and collective contributions of land use change and climate variability to the decreasing inflow into the Miyun Reservoir during 1961–2008. Different from previous studies on this watershed, we used a comprehensive approach to quantify the timing of changes in hydrology and associated environmental variables using the long-term historical hydrometeorology and remote-sensing-based land use records. To effectively quantify the different impacts of the climate variation and land use change on streamflow during different sub-periods, an annual water balance model (AWB), the climate elasticity model (CEM), and a rainfall–runoff model (RRM) were employed to conduct attribution analysis synthetically. We found a significant (p  <  0.01) decrease in annual streamflow, a significant positive trend in annual potential evapotranspiration (p  <  0.01), and an insignificant (p  >  0.1) negative trend in annual precipitation during 1961–2008. We identified two streamflow breakpoints, 1983 and 1999, by the sequential Mann–Kendall test and double-mass curve. Climate variability alone did not explain the decrease in inflow to the Miyun Reservoir. Reduction of water yield was closely related to increase in actual evapotranspiration due to the expansion of forestland and reduction in cropland and grassland, and was likely exacerbated by increased water consumption for domestic and industrial uses in the basin. The contribution to the observed streamflow decline from land use change fell from 64–92 % during 1984–1999 to 36–58 % during 2000–2008, whereas the contribution from climate variation climbed from 8–36 % during the 1984–1999 to 42–64 % during 2000–2008. Model uncertainty analysis further demonstrated that climate warming played a dominant role in streamflow reduction in the most recent decade (i.e., 2000s). We conclude that future climate change and variability will further challenge the water supply capacity of the Miyun Reservoir to meet water demand. A comprehensive watershed management strategy needs to consider the climate variations besides vegetation management in the study basin.

North Atlantic and North Sea climate change: curl up, shut down, NAO and ocean colour

The strength of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) (based on sea-surface elevation sloped derived from altimeter data) is correlated with westerly winds (based on North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] Index data over a nine year period [1992-2002] with 108 monthly values). The data time window includes the major change in climate forcing over the last 100 years (1995 to 1996). It is shown that the NAO Index can be used for early earning of system failure for the NAC. The correlation response or early warning time scale for western Europe and south England is six months. The decay scale for the NAC and Subtropical Gyre circulation is estimated as three years. Longer period altimeter elevation/circulation changes are discussed. The sea-surface temperature (SST) response of the North Sea to negative and positive NAO conditions is examined. The overall temperature response for the central North Sea to NAO index forcing, reflecting wind induced inflow, shelf circulation and local climate forcing, is similar to 5 months. In years with strong North Atlantic winter wind induced inflow, under marked NAO positive conditions, mean temperatures ( similar to 10.5 degree C) are about 1 degree C warmer than under negative conditions. In 1996 under extreme negative winter NAO conditions, the North Sea circulation stopped, conditions near the Dogger Bank became more continentally influenced and the winter (March) temperature fell to 3.1 degree C whereas in 1995 under NAO positive winter conditions the minimum temperature was 6.4 degree C (February). Seasonal advance of North Atlantic and North Sea temperature is derived in relation to temperature change. Temperature change and monthly NAO Index are discussed with respect to phytoplankton blooms, chlorophyll-a measurements, ocean colour data and the anomalous north-eastern Atlantic 2002 spring/summer bloom SeaWiFS chlorophyll concentrations.

Ocean structure and climate (Eastern North Atlantic): in situ measurement and remote sensing

Structure and climate of the east North Atlantic are appraised within a framework of in situ measurement and altimeter remote sensing from 0 degree - 60 degree N. Long zonal expendable bathythermograph /conductivity-temperature-depth probe sections show repeating internal structure in the North Atlantic Ocean. Drogued buoys and subsurface floats give westward speeds for eddies and wavelike structure. Records from longterm current meter deployments give the periodicity of the repeating structure. Eddy and wave characteristics of period, size or wavelength, westward propagation speed, and mean currents are derived at 20 degree N, 26 degree N, 32.5 degree N, 36 degree N and 48 degree N from in situ measurements in the Atlantic Ocean. It is shown that ocean wave and eddy-like features measured in situ correlate with altimeter structure. Interior ocean wave crests or cold dome-like temperature structures are cyclonic and have negative surface altimeter anomalies; mesoscale internal wave troughs or warm structures are anticyclonic and have positive surface height anomalies. Along the Eastern Boundary, flows and temperature climate are examined in terms of sla and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index. Longterm changes in ocean climate and circulation are derived from sla data. It is shown that longterm changes from 1992 to 2002 in the North Atlantic Current and the Subtropical Gyre transport determined from sla data correlate with winter NAO Index such that maximum flow conditions occurred in 1995 and 2000. Minimum circulation conditions occurred between 1996-1998. Years of extreme negative winter NAO Index result in enhanced poleward flow along the Eastern Boundary and anomalous winter warming along the West European Continental Slope as was measured in 1990, 1996, 1998 and 2001.

Climate-related increases in jellyfish frequency suggest a more gelatinous future for the North Sea

Data obtained since 1958 from the continuous plankton recorder show an increasing occurrence of jellyfish in the central North Sea that is positively related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic inflow to the northern North Sea. Since 1970, jellyfish frequency has been also significantly negatively correlated with mean annual pH, independent of NAO trends. Jellyfish frequency increased in the mid-1980s, coincident with the reported regime shift in the North Sea and tracking trends in phytoplankton color. As models produced under all climate-change scenarios indicate a move toward a positive NAO, and pH of the oceans is predicted to decrease with rising CO2, we suggest that jellyfish frequency will increase over the next 100 yr.

Impact of climate change on Antarctic krill

Antarctic krill Euphausia superba (hereafter ‘krill’) occur in regions undergoing rapid environmental change, particularly loss of winter sea ice. During recent years, harvesting of krill has increased, possibly enhancing stress on krill and Antarctic ecosystems. Here we review the overall impact of climate change on krill and Antarctic ecosystems, discuss implications for an ecosystem-based fisheries management approach and identify critical knowledge gaps. Sea ice decline, ocean warming and other environmental stressors act in concert to modify the abundance, distribution and life cycle of krill. Although some of these changes can have positive effects on krill, their cumulative impact is most likely negative. Recruitment, driven largely by the winter survival of larval krill, is probably the population parameter most susceptible to climate change. Predicting changes to krill populations is urgent, because they will seriously impact Antarctic ecosystems. Such predictions, however, are complicated by an intense inter-annual variability in recruitment success and krill abundance. To improve the responsiveness of the ecosystem-based management approach adopted by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), critical knowledge gaps need to be filled. In addition to a better understanding of the factors influencing recruitment, management will require a better understanding of the resilience and the genetic plasticity of krill life stages, and a quantitative understanding of under-ice and benthic habitat use. Current precautionary management measures of CCAMLR should be maintained until a better understanding of these processes has been achieved.

Climate change impacts on sea–air fluxes of CO2 in three Arctic seas: a sensitivity study using Earth observation

We applied coincident Earth observation data collected during 2008 and 2009 from multiple sensors (RA2, AATSR and MERIS, mounted on the European Space Agency satellite Envisat) to characterise environmental conditions and integrated sea-air fluxes of CO2 in three Arctic seas (Greenland, Barents, Kara). We assessed net CO2 sink sensitivity due to changes in temperature, salinity and sea ice duration arising from future climate scenarios. During the study period the Greenland and Barents seas were net sinks for atmospheric CO2, with integrated sea-air fluxes of -36 +/- 14 and -11 +/- 5 Tg C yr(-1), respectively, and the Kara Sea was a weak net CO2 source with an integrated sea-air flux of +2.2 +/- 1.4 TgC yr(-1). The combined integrated CO2 sea-air flux from all three was -45 +/- 18 TgC yr(-1). In a sensitivity analysis we varied temperature, salinity and sea ice duration. Variations in temperature and salinity led to modification of the transfer velocity, solubility and partial pressure of CO2 taking into account the resultant variations in alkalinity and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Our results showed that warming had a strong positive effect on the annual integrated sea-air flux of CO2 (i.e. reducing the sink), freshening had a strong negative effect and reduced sea ice duration had a small but measurable positive effect. In the climate change scenario examined, the effects of warming in just over a decade of climate change up to 2020 outweighed the combined effects of freshening and reduced sea ice duration. Collectively these effects gave an integrated sea-air flux change of +4.0 TgC in the Greenland Sea, +6.0 Tg C in the Barents Sea and +1.7 Tg C in the Kara Sea, reducing the Greenland and Barents sinks by 11% and 53 %, respectively, and increasing the weak Kara Sea source by 81 %. Overall, the regional integrated flux changed by +11.7 Tg C, which is a 26% reduction in the regional sink. In terms of CO2 sink strength, we conclude that the Barents Sea is the most susceptible of the three regions to the climate changes examined. Our results imply that the region will cease to be a net CO2 sink in the 2050s.

Reply to Haddock, S. H. D. Reconsidering evidence for potential climate-related increases in jellyfish

Following the publication of our paper (Attrill et al. 2007), we became quickly aware of a couple of errors. We have subsequently been collaborating with Dr. Chris Lynam (Lynam et al. 2004, 2005) to bring together our two datasets, explore the common patterns within our data, and attempt to provide a consensus on how climate is affecting gelatinous plankton in the North Sea. During this reanalysis, two errors within the data were discovered, one involving a transcription error of a column of residuals during de-trended analysis, the other a major data entry error deep in the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) database for sector B2. Here we present a revised version of table 1 from Attrill et al. (2007) to incorporate corrections to these transcription and data entry errors. These corrections alter some of the results in our original data table, mainly to increase and strengthen the number of significant relations we found (e.g., for sector B2 and whole sea area); all previous main results remain robustly significant. Following discussions with Dr. Lynam, two clarifications of statements made in Attrill et al. (2007) are also required. Page 482, Results, last line of first column: ‘‘There were no...robust, consistent relations between jellyfish frequency and any environmental variables for B and D… contrary to the findings of previous shorter time series (Lynam et al. 2005).’’ The Lynam et al. (2004, 2005) papers presented no data for the D sector and found no link in the B sector, contrary to our revised results. Page 482, Discussion, paragraph 1, last sentence: ‘‘… positive association … North of Scotland (Lynam et al. 2005) … does not appear to be maintained.’’ Our paper did not report on any data that covered Lynam et al.’s (2005) North of Scotland area so the statement is not directly supported, although their positive relation North of Scotland, when considered in conjunction with inflow, may agree with the C2 and B2 results of Attrill et al. (2007).

Recent Arctic Climate Change and Its Remote Forcing of Northwest Atlantic Shelf Ecosystems

During recent decades, historically unprecedented changes have been observed in the Arctic as climate warming has increased precipitation, river discharge, and glacial as well as sea-ice melting. Additionally, shifts in the Arctic's atmospheric pressure field have altered surface winds, ocean circulation, and freshwater storage in the Beaufort Gyre. These processes have resulted in variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean, including the emergence of great salinity anomalies propagating throughout the North Atlantic. Here, we link these variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean to the regime shifts observed in Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems. Specifically, we hypothesize that the corresponding salinity anomalies, both negative and positive, alter the timing and extent of water-column stratification, thereby impacting the production and seasonal cycles of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and higher-trophic-level consumers. Should this hypothesis hold up to critical evaluation, it has the potential to fundamentally alter our current understanding of the processes forcing the dynamics of Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems.

Trophic amplification of climate warming

Ecosystems can alternate suddenly between contrasting persistent states due to internal processes or external drivers. It is important to understand the mechanisms by which these shifts occur, especially in exploited ecosystems. There have been several abrupt marine ecosystem shifts attributed either to fishing, recent climate change or a combination of these two drivers. We show that temperature has been an important driver of the trophodynamics of the North Sea, a heavily fished marine ecosystem, for nearly 50 years and that a recent pronounced change in temperature established a new ecosystem dynamic regime through a series of internal mechanisms. Using an end-to-end ecosystem approach that included primary producers, primary, secondary and tertiary consumers, and detritivores, we found that temperature modified the relationships among species through nonlinearities in the ecosystem involving ecological thresholds and trophic amplifications. Trophic amplification provides an alternative mechanism to positive feedback to drive an ecosystem towards a new dynamic regime, which in this case favours jellyfish in the plankton and decapods and detritivores in the benthos. Although overfishing is often held responsible for marine ecosystem degeneration, temperature can clearly bring about similar effects. Our results are relevant to ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM), seen as the way forward to manage exploited marine ecosystems.