Sensitivity analysis of a cyanobacterial growth and movement model under two different flow regimes

Bloom-forming and toxin-producing cyanobacteria remain a persistent nuisance across the world. Modelling cyanobacterial behaviour in freshwaters is an important tool for understanding their population dynamics and predicting the location and timing of the bloom events in lakes, reservoirs and rivers. A new deterministic–mathematical model was developed, which simulates the growth and movement of cyanobacterial blooms in river systems. The model focuses on the mathematical description of the bloom formation, vertical migration and lateral transport of colonies within river environments by taking into account the major factors that affect the cyanobacterial bloom formation in rivers including light, nutrients and temperature. A parameter sensitivity analysis using a one-at-a-time approach was carried out. There were two objectives of the sensitivity analysis presented in this paper: to identify the key parameters controlling the growth and movement patterns of cyanobacteria and to provide a means for model validation. The result of the analysis suggested that maximum growth rate and day length period were the most significant parameters in determining the population growth and colony depth, respectively.

The determination of total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations in freshwaters from land use, stock headage and population data: testing of a model for use in conservation and water quality management

1. Nutrient concentrations (particularly N and P) determine the extent to which water bodies are or may become eutrophic. Direct determination of nutrient content on a wide scale is labour intensive but the main sources of N and P are well known. This paper describes and tests an export coefficient model for prediction of total N and total P from: (i) land use, stock headage and human population; (ii) the export rates of N and P from these sources; and (iii) the river discharge. Such a model might be used to forecast the effects of changes in land use in the future and to hindcast past water quality to establish comparative or baseline states for the monitoring of change. 2. The model has been calibrated against observed data for 1988 and validated against sets of observed data for a sequence of earlier years in ten British catchments varying from uplands through rolling, fertile lowlands to the flat topography of East Anglia. 3. The model predicted total N and total P concentrations with high precision (95% of the variance in observed data explained). It has been used in two forms: the first on a specific catchment basis; the second for a larger natural region which contains the catchment with the assumption that all catchments within that region will be similar. Both models gave similar results with little loss of precision in the latter case. This implies that it will be possible to describe the overall pattern of nutrient export in the UK with only a fraction of the effort needed to carry out the calculations for each individual water body. 4. Comparison between land use, stock headage, population numbers and nutrient export for the ten catchments in the pre-war year of 1931, and for 1970 and 1988 show that there has been a substantial loss of rough grazing to fertilized temporary and permanent grasslands, an increase in the hectarage devoted to arable, consistent increases in the stocking of cattle and sheep and a marked movement of humans to these rural catchments. 5. All of these trends have increased the flows of nutrients with more than a doubling of both total N and total P loads during the period. On average in these rural catchments, stock wastes have been the greatest contributors to both N and P exports, with cultivation the next most important source of N and people of P. Ratios of N to P were high in 1931 and remain little changed so that, in these catchments, phosphorus continues to be the nutrient most likely to control algal crops in standing waters supplied by the rivers studied.

Movement of newly assimilated 13C carbon in the grass Lolium perenne and its incorporation into rhizosphere microbial DNA

One of the key processes that drives rhizosphere microbial activity is the exudation of soluble organic carbon (C) by plant roots. We describe an experiment designed to determine the impact of defoliation on the partitioning and movement of C in grass (Lolium perenne L.), soil and grass-sterile sand microcosms, using a (13)CO(2) pulse-labelling method. The pulse-derived (13)C in the shoots declined over time, but that of the roots remained stable throughout the experiment. There were peaks in the atom% (13)C of rhizosphere CO(2) in the first few hours after labelling probably due to root respiration, and again at around 100 h. The second peak was only seen in the soil microcosms and not in those with sterilised sand as the growth medium, indicating possible microbial activity. Incorporation of the (13)C label into the microbial biomass increased at 100 h when incorporation into replicating cells, as indicated by the amounts of the label in the microbial DNA, started to increase. These results indicate that the rhizosphere environment is conducive to bacterial growth and replication. The results also show that defoliation had no impact on the pattern of movement of (13)C from plant roots into the microbial population in the rhizosphere.

Population dynamics of DENV-1 genotype V in Brazil is characterized by co-circulation and strain/lineage replacement

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

How the interplay between individual spatial memory and landscape persistence can generate population distribution patterns

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Population genetic evidence that basidiospores play an important role in the disease cycle of rice-infecting populations of Rhizoctonia solani AG-1 IA in Iran

The fungus Rhizoctonia solani AG-1 IA causes sheath blight, one of the most important rice diseases worldwide. The first objective of this study was to analyse the genetic structure of R. solani AG-1 IA populations from three locations in the Iranian Caspian Sea rice agroecosystem. Three population samples of R. solani AG-1 IA isolates were obtained in 2006 from infected rice fields separated by 126-263km. Each field was sampled twice during the season: at the early booting stage and 45days later at the early mature grain stage. The genetic structure of these three populations was analysed using nine microsatellite loci. While the population genetic structure from Tonekabon and Amol indicated high gene flow, they were both differentiated from Rasht. The high gene flow between Tonekabon and Amol was probably due mainly to human-mediated movement of infested seeds. The second objective was to determine the importance of recombination. All three populations exhibited a mixed reproductive mode, including both sexual and asexual reproduction. No inbreeding was detected, suggesting that the pathogen is random mating. The third objective was to determine if genetic structure within a field changes over the course of a growing season. A decrease in the proportion of admixed genotypes from the early to the late season was detected. There was also a significant (P=0·002) increase in the proportion of loci under Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. These two lines of evidence support the hypothesis that basidiospores can be a source of secondary inoculum. © 2012 BSPP.

Allee effects and population spread in patchy landscapes

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

How population loss through habitat boundaries determines the dynamics of a predator-prey system

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Reproductive migration and population dynamics of the blue crab Callinectes danae in an estuary in southeastern Brazil

Portunid crabs are an important resource in estuaries, and require appropriate management to guarantee their long-term availability. We investigated the population dynamics and reproduction of Callinectes danae in the Estuarine-Bay Complex of Sao Vicente, Sao Paulo, Brazil, to provide basic biological information for public policies for the management of this fishery. Monthly samples were obtained from March 2007 to February 2008 on eight transects, four in the estuary and four in the bay. A total of 2261 specimens (403 males, 1288 females, of which 570 were ovigerous) were collected. Males were significantly larger than females, and the size-frequency distribution was unimodal for males, females and ovigerous females. The sex ratio was nearly always skewed toward females (M:F - 1:4.6). C. danae showed seasonal-continuous reproduction, with high reproductive activity in the warmer season. C. danae breeds in the estuarine-bay complex, with males and juvenile females concentrated in the estuary. After copulation, fertilized females migrate to the estuary entrance and the bay, where ovigerous females are commonly found spawning in high-salinity areas. Therefore, to manage this important economic resource, both the estuary and the bay should be considered for protection, but special attention should be given to the estuary entrance during the summer months, when ovigerous females concentrate.

Phylodynamics and movement of Phycodnaviruses among aquatic environments

Phycodnaviruses have a significant role in modulating the dynamics of phytoplankton, thereby influencing community structure and succession, nutrient cycles and potentially atmospheric composition because phytoplankton fix about half the carbon dioxide (CO2) on the planet, and some algae release dimethylsulphoniopropionate when lysed by viruses. Despite their ecological importance and widespread distribution, relatively little is known about the evolutionary history, phylogenetic relationships and phylodynamics of the Phycodnaviruses from freshwater environments. Herein we provide novel data on Phycodnaviruses from the largest river system on earth-the Amazon Basin-that were compared with samples from different aquatic systems from several places around the world. Based on phylogenetic inference using DNA polymerase (pol) sequences we show the presence of distinct populations of Phycodnaviridae. Preliminary coarse-grained phylodynamics and phylogeographic inferences revealed a complex dynamics characterized by long-term fluctuations in viral population sizes, with a remarkable worldwide reduction of the effective population around 400 thousand years before the present (KYBP), followed by a recovery near to the present time. Moreover, we present evidence for significant viral gene flow between freshwater environments, but crucially almost none between freshwater and marine environments. The ISME Journal (2012) 6, 237-247; doi: 10.1038/ismej.2011.93; published online 28 July 2011

Movement Analysis by means of inertial sensors: from bench to bedside

in the everyday clinical practice. Having this in mind, the choice of a simple setup would not be enough because, even if the setup is quick and simple, the instrumental assessment would still be in addition to the daily routine. The will to overcome this limit has led to the idea of instrumenting already existing and widely used functional tests. In this way the sensor based assessment becomes an integral part of the clinical assessment. Reliable and validated signal processing methods have been successfully implemented in Personal Health Systems based on smartphone technology. At the end of this research project there is evidence that such solution can really and easily used in clinical practice in both supervised and unsupervised settings. Smartphone based solution, together or in place of dedicated wearable sensing units, can truly become a pervasive and low-cost means for providing suitable testing solutions for quantitative movement analysis with a clear clinical value, ultimately providing enhanced balance and mobility support to an aging population.

Bacillus anthracis: Molecular taxonomy, population genetics, phylogeny and patho-evolution

Bacillus anthracis, the etiological agent of anthrax, manifests a particular bimodal lifestyle. This bacterial species alternates between short replication phases of 20-40 generations that strictly require infection of the host, normally causing death, interrupted by relatively long, mostly dormant phases as spores in the environment. Hence, the B. anthracis genome is highly homogeneous. This feature and the fact that strains from nearly all parts of the world have been analysed for canonical single nucleotide polymorphisms (canSNPs) and variable number tandem repeats (VNTRs) has allowed the development of molecular epidemiological and molecular clock models to estimate the age of major diversifications in the evolution of B. anthracis and to trace the global spread of this pathogen, which was mostly promoted by movement of domestic cattle with settlers and by international trade of contaminated animal products. From a taxonomic and phylogenetic point of view, B. anthracis is a member of the Bacillus cereus group. The differentiation of B. anthracis from B. cereus sensu strict, solely based on chromosomal markers, is difficult. However, differences in pathogenicity clearly differentiate B. anthracis from B. cereus and are marked by the strict presence of virulence genes located on the two virulence plasmids pXO1 and pXO2, which both are required by the bacterium to cause anthrax. Conversely, anthrax-like symptoms can also be caused by organisms with chromosomal features that are more closely related to B. cereus, but which carry these virulence genes on two plasmids that largely resemble the B. anthracis virulence plasmids. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Intellectual outcome, motor skills and BMI of children with congenital hypothyroidism: a population-based study

AIM: To evaluate intellectual outcome, motor skills and anthropometric data of children with congenital hypothyroidism (CH). METHODS: Children with permanent CH who were born in 1999 in Bavaria were eligible for this prospective, population-based study. Cognitive performance was evaluated by the Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children and motor skills were assessed by the motor test, Motoriktest für vier-bis sechsjahrige Kinder (MOT) 4-6. RESULTS: Eighteen of 21 eligible children participated (86%). Median age of the children was 5.5 years (range 4.9-5.8). Treatment with levothyroxine was started after a median of 7.2 days (range 4-15) with a median dose of 12.0 microg/kg (range 7.2-17.0). Mean intelligence quotient (IQ) of the children was 100.4 (standard deviation [SD] 10.1): no children had IQ values below the normal range. Reactivity and speed of movement were significantly reduced in children with CH. Children with an initial thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) value of >200 mU/L performed significantly worse than children with TSH value of

AccessMod 3.0: computing geographic coverage and accessibility to health care services using anisotropic movement of patients

Background Access to health care can be described along four dimensions: geographic accessibility, availability, financial accessibility and acceptability. Geographic accessibility measures how physically accessible resources are for the population, while availability reflects what resources are available and in what amount. Combining these two types of measure into a single index provides a measure of geographic (or spatial) coverage, which is an important measure for assessing the degree of accessibility of a health care network. Results This paper describes the latest version of AccessMod, an extension to the Geographical Information System ArcView 3.×, and provides an example of application of this tool. AccessMod 3 allows one to compute geographic coverage to health care using terrain information and population distribution. Four major types of analysis are available in AccessMod: (1) modeling the coverage of catchment areas linked to an existing health facility network based on travel time, to provide a measure of physical accessibility to health care; (2) modeling geographic coverage according to the availability of services; (3) projecting the coverage of a scaling-up of an existing network; (4) providing information for cost effectiveness analysis when little information about the existing network is available. In addition to integrating travelling time, population distribution and the population coverage capacity specific to each health facility in the network, AccessMod can incorporate the influence of landscape components (e.g. topography, river and road networks, vegetation) that impact travelling time to and from facilities. Topographical constraints can be taken into account through an anisotropic analysis that considers the direction of movement. We provide an example of the application of AccessMod in the southern part of Malawi that shows the influences of the landscape constraints and of the modes of transportation on geographic coverage. Conclusion By incorporating the demand (population) and the supply (capacities of heath care centers), AccessMod provides a unifying tool to efficiently assess the geographic coverage of a network of health care facilities. This tool should be of particular interest to developing countries that have a relatively good geographic information on population distribution, terrain, and health facility locations.

Demographic model of the Swiss cattle population for the years 2009-2011 stratified by gender, age and production type

Demographic composition and dynamics of animal and human populations are important determinants for the transmission dynamics of infectious disease and for the effect of infectious disease or environmental disasters on productivity. In many circumstances, demographic data are not available or of poor quality. Since 1999 Switzerland has been recording cattle movements, births, deaths and slaughter in an animal movement database (AMD). The data present in the AMD offers the opportunity for analysing and understanding the dynamic of the Swiss cattle population. A dynamic population model can serve as a building block for future disease transmission models and help policy makers in developing strategies regarding animal health, animal welfare, livestock management and productivity. The Swiss cattle population was therefore modelled using a system of ordinary differential equations. The model was stratified by production type (dairy or beef), age and gender (male and female calves: 0-1 year, heifers and young bulls: 1-2 years, cows and bulls: older than 2 years). The simulation of the Swiss cattle population reflects the observed pattern accurately. Parameters were optimized on the basis of the goodness-of-fit (using the Powell algorithm). The fitted rates were compared with calculated rates from the AMD and differed only marginally. This gives confidence in the fitted rates of parameters that are not directly deductible from the AMD (e.g. the proportion of calves that are moved from the dairy system to fattening plants).