Planning for transit system reliability using productive performance and risk assessment

Urban transit system performance may be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity for planning, design and operational management. Bunker (4) defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line. Transit work (p-km) captures transit task performed over distance. Transit productiveness (p-km/h) captures transit work performed over time. This paper applies productive performance with risk assessment to quantify transit system reliability. Theory is developed to monetize transit segment reliability risk on the basis of demonstration Annual Reliability Event rates by transit facility type, segment productiveness, and unit-event severity. A comparative example of peak hour performance of a transit sub-system containing bus-on-street, busway, and rail components in Brisbane, Australia demonstrates through practical application the importance of valuing reliability. Comparison reveals the highest risk segments to be long, highly productive on street bus segments followed by busway (BRT) segments and then rail segments. A transit reliability risk reduction treatment example demonstrates that benefits can be significant and should be incorporated into project evaluation in addition to those of regular travel time savings, reduced emissions and safety improvements. Reliability can be used to identify high risk components of the transit system and draw comparisons between modes both in planning and operations settings, and value improvement scenarios in a project evaluation setting. The methodology can also be applied to inform daily transit system operational management.

Analysis of productive performance of crop production systems: an integrated analytical framework

Recent literature has argued that environmental efficiency (EE), which is built on the materials balance (MB) principle, is more suitable than other EE measures in situations where the law of mass conversation regulates production processes. In addition, the MB-based EE method is particularly useful in analysing possible trade-offs between cost and environmental performance. Identifying determinants of MB-based EE can provide useful information to decision makers but there are very few empirical investigations into this issue. This article proposes the use of data envelopment analysis and stochastic frontier analysis techniques to analyse variation in MB-based EE. Specifically, the article develops a stochastic nutrient frontier and nutrient inefficiency model to analyse determinants of MB-based EE. The empirical study applies both techniques to investigate MB-based EE of 96 rice farms in South Korea. The size of land, fertiliser consumption intensity, cost allocative efficiency, and the share of owned land out of total land are found to be correlated with MB-based EE. The results confirm the presence of a trade-off between MB-based EE and cost allocative efficiency and this finding, favouring policy interventions to help farms simultaneously achieve cost efficiency and MP-based EE.

Five commercial citrus rate poorly as hosts of the polyphagous fruit flyBactrocera tryoni(Froggatt) (Diptera: Tephritidae) in laboratory studies

Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt), is a polyphagous pest, and many citrus types are included among its hosts. While quantification of citrus host use by B. tryoni is lacking, citrus is generally considered a ‘low pressure’ crop. This paper investigates B. tryoni female oviposition preference and offspring performance in five citrus types; Murcott mandarin (Citrus reticulata), Navel orange and Valencia orange (Citrus sinensis), Eureka lemon (Citrus limon) and yellow grapefruit (Citrus paradisi). Oviposition preference was investigated in laboratory-based choice and no-choice experiments, while immature survival and offspring performance were investigated by infesting fruits in the laboratory and evaluating pupal recovery, pupal emergence and F1 fecundity. Fruit size, Brix level and peel toughness were also measured for correlation with host use. Bactrocera tryoni demonstrated an oviposition preference hierarchy among the citrus fruits tested; Murcott and grapefruit were most preferred for oviposition and lemon the least, while preference for Navel and Valencia was intermediate. Peel toughness was negatively correlated with B. tryoni oviposition preference, while no significant correlations were detected between oviposition and Brix level or fruit size. Immature survival in the tested fruit was very low. Murcott was the best host (21% pupal recovery), while all other citrus types that showed pupal recovery of 6% or lower and no pupae were recovered from Valencia orange. In pupae recovered from Navel orange and lemon, adult eclosion was greatly reduced, while in grapefruit and lemon, no eggs were recovered from F1 adults. Based on these laboratory results, many commercial citrus varieties appear to be poor hosts for B. tryoni and may pose a low post-harvest and quarantine risk. These findings need to be confirmed in the field, as they impact on both pre-harvest and post-harvest countermeasures.

Modelling sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers using heterogeneous computing

The objective of this PhD research program is to investigate numerical methods for simulating variably-saturated flow and sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers in a high-performance computing environment. The work is divided into three overlapping tasks: to develop an accurate and stable finite volume discretisation and numerical solution strategy for the variably-saturated flow and salt transport equations; to implement the chosen approach in a high performance computing environment that may have multiple GPUs or CPU cores; and to verify and test the implementation. The geological description of aquifers is often complex, with porous materials possessing highly variable properties, that are best described using unstructured meshes. The finite volume method is a popular method for the solution of the conservation laws that describe sea water intrusion, and is well-suited to unstructured meshes. In this work we apply a control volume-finite element (CV-FE) method to an extension of a recently proposed formulation (Kees and Miller, 2002) for variably saturated groundwater flow. The CV-FE method evaluates fluxes at points where material properties and gradients in pressure and concentration are consistently defined, making it both suitable for heterogeneous media and mass conservative. Using the method of lines, the CV-FE discretisation gives a set of differential algebraic equations (DAEs) amenable to solution using higher-order implicit solvers. Heterogeneous computer systems that use a combination of computational hardware such as CPUs and GPUs, are attractive for scientific computing due to the potential advantages offered by GPUs for accelerating data-parallel operations. We present a C++ library that implements data-parallel methods on both CPU and GPUs. The finite volume discretisation is expressed in terms of these data-parallel operations, which gives an efficient implementation of the nonlinear residual function. This makes the implicit solution of the DAE system possible on the GPU, because the inexact Newton-Krylov method used by the implicit time stepping scheme can approximate the action of a matrix on a vector using residual evaluations. We also propose preconditioning strategies that are amenable to GPU implementation, so that all computationally-intensive aspects of the implicit time stepping scheme are implemented on the GPU. Results are presented that demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed numeric methods and formulation. The formulation offers excellent conservation of mass, and higher-order temporal integration increases both numeric efficiency and accuracy of the solutions. Flux limiting produces accurate, oscillation-free solutions on coarse meshes, where much finer meshes are required to obtain solutions with equivalent accuracy using upstream weighting. The computational efficiency of the software is investigated using CPUs and GPUs on a high-performance workstation. The GPU version offers considerable speedup over the CPU version, with one GPU giving speedup factor of 3 over the eight-core CPU implementation.

Determination of vertical hydraulic conductivity of aquitards in a multilayered leaky system using water-level signals in adjacent aquifers

This paper presents a methodology for determining the vertical hydraulic conductivity (Kv) of an aquitard, in a multilayered leaky system, based on the harmonic analysis of arbitrary water-level fluctuations in aquifers. As a result, Kv of the aquitard is expressed as a function of the phase-shift of water-level signals measured in the two adjacent aquifers. Based on this expression, we propose a robust method to calculate Kv by employing linear regression analysis of logarithm transformed frequencies and phases. The frequencies, where the Kv are calculated, are identified by coherence analysis. The proposed methods are validated by a synthetic case study and are then applied to the Westbourne and Birkhead aquitards, which form part of a five-layered leaky system in the Eromanga Basin, Australia.

Medical nutrition therapy and simple interventions can improve intake in patients who eat poorly in hospital

The Australasian Nutrition Care Day Survey (ANCDS) reported two-in-five patients in Australian and New Zealand hospitals consume ≤50% of the offered food. The ANCDS found a significant association between poor food intake and increased in-hospital mortality after controlling for confounders (nutritional status, age, disease type and severity)1. Evidence for the effectiveness of medical nutrition therapy (MNT) in hospital patients eating poorly is lacking. An exploratory study was conducted in respiratory, neurology and orthopaedic wards of an Australian hospital. At baseline, 24-hour food intake (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100% of offered meals) was evaluated for patients hospitalised for ≥2 days and not under dietetic review. Patients consuming ≤50% of offered meals due to nutrition-impact symptoms were referred to ward dietitians for MNT with food intake re-evaluated on day-7. 184 patients were observed over four weeks. Sixty-two patients (34%) consumed ≤50% of the offered meals. Simple interventions (feeding/menu assistance, diet texture modifications) improved intake to ≥75% in 30 patients who did not require further MNT. Of the 32 patients referred for MNT, baseline and day-7 data were available for 20 patients (68±17years, 65% females, BMI: 22±5kg/m2, median energy, protein intake: 2250kJ, 25g respectively). On day-7, 17 participants (85%) demonstrated significantly higher consumption (4300kJ, 53g; p<0.01). Three participants demonstrated no improvement due to ongoing nutrition-impact symptoms. “Percentage food intake” was a quick tool to identify patients in whom simple interventions could enhance intake. MNT was associated with improved dietary intake in hospital patients. Further research is needed to establish a causal relationship.

An exploratory study to evaluate whether medical nutrition therapy can improve dietary intake in hospital patients who eat poorly

Background and aims The Australasian Nutrition Care Day Survey (ANCDS) reported two-in-five patients consume ≤50% of the offered food in Australian and New Zealand hospitals. After controlling for confounders (nutritional status, age, disease type and severity), the ANCDS also established an independent association between poor food intake and increased in-hospital mortality. This study aimed to evaluate if medical nutrition therapy (MNT) could improve dietary intake in hospital patients eating poorly. Methods An exploratory pilot study was conducted in the respiratory, neurology and orthopaedic wards of an Australian hospital. At baseline, percentage food intake (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%) was evaluated for each main meal and snack for a 24-hour period in patients hospitalised for ≥2 days and not under dietetic review. Patients consuming ≤50% of offered meals due to nutrition-impact symptoms were referred to ward dietitians for MNT. Food intake was re-evaluated on the seventh day following recruitment (post-MNT). Results 184 patients were observed over four weeks; 32 patients were referred for MNT. Although baseline and post-MNT data for 20 participants (68±17years, 65% females) indicated a significant increase in median energy and protein intake post-MNT (3600kJ/day, 40g/day) versus baseline (2250kJ/day, 25g/day) (p<0.05), the increased intake met only 50% of dietary requirements. Persistent nutrition impact symptoms affected intake. Conclusion In this pilot study whilst dietary intake improved, it remained inadequate to meet participants’ estimated requirements due to ongoing nutrition-impact symptoms. Appropriate medical management and early enteral feeding could be a possible solution for such patients.

Technological tools for science classrooms : choosing and using for productive and sustainable teaching and learning experiences

In this age of rapidly evolving technology, teachers are encouraged to adopt ICTs by government, syllabus, school management, and parents. Indeed, it is an expectation that teachers will incorporate technologies into their classroom teaching practices to enhance the learning experiences and outcomes of their students. In particular, regarding the science classroom, a subject that traditionally incorporates hands-on experiments and practicals, the integration of modern technologies should be a major feature. Although myriad studies report on technologies that enhance students’ learning outcomes in science, there is a dearth of literature on how teachers go about selecting technologies for use in the science classroom. Teachers can feel ill prepared to assess the range of available choices and might feel pressured and somewhat overwhelmed by the avalanche of new developments thrust before them in marketing literature and teaching journals. The consequences of making bad decisions are costly in terms of money, time and teacher confidence. Additionally, no research to date has identified what technologies science teachers use on a regular basis, and whether some purchased technologies have proven to be too problematic, preventing their sustained use and possible wider adoption. The primary aim of this study was to provide research-based guidance to teachers to aid their decision-making in choosing technologies for the science classroom. The study unfolded in several phases. The first phase of the project involved survey and interview data from teachers in relation to the technologies they currently use in their science classrooms and the frequency of their use. These data were coded and analysed using Grounded Theory of Corbin and Strauss, and resulted in the development of a PETTaL model that captured the salient factors of the data. This model incorporated usability theory from the Human Computer Interaction literature, and education theory and models such as Mishra and Koehler’s (2006) TPACK model, where the grounded data indicated these issues. The PETTaL model identifies Power (school management, syllabus etc.), Environment (classroom / learning setting), Teacher (personal characteristics, experience, epistemology), Technology (usability, versatility etc.,) and Learners (academic ability, diversity, behaviour etc.,) as fields that can impact the use of technology in science classrooms. The PETTaL model was used to create a Predictive Evaluation Tool (PET): a tool designed to assist teachers in choosing technologies, particularly for science teaching and learning. The evolution of the PET was cyclical (employing agile development methodology), involving repeated testing with in-service and pre-service teachers at each iteration, and incorporating their comments i ii in subsequent versions. Once no new suggestions were forthcoming, the PET was tested with eight in-service teachers, and the results showed that the PET outcomes obtained by (experienced) teachers concurred with their instinctive evaluations. They felt the PET would be a valuable tool when considering new technology, and it would be particularly useful as a means of communicating perceived value between colleagues and between budget holders and requestors during the acquisition process. It is hoped that the PET could make the tacit knowledge acquired by experienced teachers about technology use in classrooms explicit to novice teachers. Additionally, the PET could be used as a research tool to discover a teachers’ professional development needs. Therefore, the outcomes of this study can aid a teacher in the process of selecting educationally productive and sustainable new technology for their science classrooms. This study has produced an instrument for assisting teachers in the decision-making process associated with the use of new technologies for the science classroom. The instrument is generic in that it can be applied to all subject areas. Further, this study has produced a powerful model that extends the TPACK model, which is currently extensively employed to assess teachers’ use of technology in the classroom. The PETTaL model grounded in data from this study, responds to the calls in the literature for TPACK’s further development. As a theoretical model, PETTaL has the potential to serve as a framework for the development of a teacher’s reflective practice (either self evaluation or critical evaluation of observed teaching practices). Additionally, PETTaL has the potential for aiding the formulation of a teacher’s personal professional development plan. It will be the basis for further studies in this field.

Productive and inclusive? How documentation concealed racialising practices in a diversity project

This article examines how documentation concealed racialising practices in a diversity project that was seen to be productive and inclusive. Documentation examples are taken from a doctoral study about embedding Indigenous perspectives in early childhood education curricula in two Australian urban childcare centres. In place of reporting examples of ‘good’ early childhood education practice, the study labelled racialising practices in educators’ work. The primary aim was to understand how racialising practices are mobilised in professional practices, including documentation, even when educators’ work is seen to be high quality. Extracts from two communal journals that captured an action research process around embedding practices are examined to show how racism and whiteness were concealed within the documentation. This enables understanding about how documentation can provide evidence to stakeholders that diversity work in mainstream childcare centres is productive and inclusive, despite disparity between what is recorded and what occurs in practice.

Productive inefficiency analysis and toxic chemical substances in US and Japanese manufacturing sectors

Corporate social responsibility is imperative for manufacturing companies to achieve sustainable development. Under a strong environmental information disclosure system, polluting companies are disadvantaged in terms of market competitiveness, because they lack an environmentally friendly image. The objective of this study is to analyze productive inefficiency change in relation to toxic chemical substance emissions for the United States and Japan and their corresponding policies. We apply the weighted Russell directional distance model to measure companies productive inefficiency, which represents their production technology. The data encompass 330 US manufacturing firms observed from 1999 to 2007, and 466 Japanese manufacturing firms observed from 2001 to 2008. The article focuses on nine high-pollution industries (rubber and plastics; chemicals and allied products; paper and pulp; steel and non-ferrous metal; fabricated metal; industrial machinery; electrical products; transportation equipment; precision instruments) categorized into two industry groups: basic materials industries and processing and assembly industries. The results show that productive inefficiency decreased in all industrial sectors in the United States and Japan from 2001 to 2007. In particular, that of the electrical products industry decreased rapidly after 2002 for both countries, possibly because of the enforcement of strict environmental regulations for electrical products exported to European markets.

Estimating second language productive vocabulary size: A Capture-Recapture approach

This study provides validity evidence for the Capture-Recapture (CR) method, borrowed from ecology, as a measure of second language (L2) productive vocabulary size (PVS). Two separate “captures” of productive vocabulary were taken using written word association tasks (WAT). At Time 1, 47 bilinguals provided at least 4 associates to each of 30 high-frequency stimulus words in English, their first language (L1), and in French, their L2. A few days later (Time 2), this procedure was repeated with a different set of stimulus words in each language. Since the WAT was used, both Lex30 and CR PVS scores were calculated in each language. Participants also completed an animacy judgment task assessing the speed and efficiency of lexical access. Results indicated that, in both languages, CR and Lex30 scores were significantly positively correlated (evidence of convergent validity). CR scores were also significantly larger in the L1, and correlated significantly with the speed of lexical access in the L2 (evidence of construct validity). These results point to the validity of the technique for estimating relative L2 PVS. However, CR scores are not a direct indication of absolute vocabulary size. A discussion of the method’s underlying assumptions and their implications for interpretation are provided.

Tools, building blocks, and rewards : traditional media organizations learn to engage with productive audiences

This paper explores how traditional media organizations (such as magazines, music, film, books, and newspapers) develop routines for coping with an increasingly productive audience. While previous studies have reported on how such organizations have been affected by digital technologies, this study makes a contribution to this literature by being one of the first to show how organizational routines for engaging with an increasingly productive audience actually emerge and diffuse between industries. The paper explores to what extent routines employed by two traditional media organizations have been brought in from other organizational settings, specifically from so-called ‘software platform operators’. Data on routines for engaging with productive audiences have been collected from two information-rich cases in the music and the magazine industries, and from eight high-profile software platform operators. The paper concludes that the routines employed by the two traditional media organizations and by the software platform operators are based on the same set of principles: Provide the audience with (a) tools that allow them to easily generate cultural content; (b) building blocks which facilitate their creative activities; and (c) recognition and rewards based on both rationality and emotion.

Predicting flow and transport in highly heterogeneous alluvial aquifers

Successful prediction of groundwater flow and solute transport through highly heterogeneous aquifers has remained elusive due to the limitations of methods to characterize hydraulic conductivity (K) and generate realistic stochastic fields from such data. As a result, many studies have suggested that the classical advective-dispersive equation (ADE) cannot reproduce such transport behavior. Here we demonstrate that when high-resolution K data are used with a fractal stochastic method that produces K fields with adequate connectivity, the classical ADE can accurately predict solute transport at the macrodispersion experiment site in Mississippi. This development provides great promise to accurately predict contaminant plume migration, design more effective remediation schemes, and reduce environmental risks. Key Points Non-Gaussian transport behavior at the MADE site is unraveledADE can reproduce tracer transport in heterogeneous aquifers with no calibrationNew fractal method generates heterogeneous K fields with adequate connectivity

Toward a model for predicting magnetic susceptibility of bedrock regolith and soils

One of the Department of Defense's most pressing environmental problems is the efficient detection and identification of unexploded ordnance (UXO). In regions of highly magnetic soils, magnetic and electromagnetic sensors often detect anomalies that are of geologic origin, adding significantly to remediation costs. In order to develop predictive models for magnetic susceptibility, it is crucial to understand modes of formation and the spatial distribution of different iron oxides. Most rock types contain iron and their magnetic susceptibility is determined by the amount and form of iron oxides present. When rocks weather, the amount and form of the oxides change, producing concomitant changes in magnetic susceptibility. The type of iron oxide found in the weathered rock or regolith is a function of the duration and intensity of weathering, as well as the original content of iron in the parent material. The rate of weathering is controlled by rainfall and temperature; thus knowing the climate zone, the amount of iron in the lithology and the age of the surface will help predict the amount and forms of iron oxide. We have compiled analyses of the types, amounts, and magnetic properties of iron oxides from soils over a wide climate range, from semi arid grasslands, to temperate regions, and tropical forests. We find there is a predictable range of iron oxide type and magnetic susceptibility according to the climate zone, the age of the soil and the amount of iron in the unweathered regolith.