Business competition dynamics: agent-based modeling simulations of firms in search of economic performance

A intenção deste trabalho é explorar dinâmicas de competição por meio de “simulação baseada em agentes”. Apoiando-se em um crescente número de estudos no campo da estratégia e teoria das organizações que utilizam métodos de simulação, desenvolveu-se um modelo computacional para simular situações de competição entre empresas e observar a eficiência relativa dos métodos de busca de melhoria de desempenho teorizados. O estudo também explora possíveis explicações para a persistência de desempenho superior ou inferior das empresas, associados às condições de vantagem ou desvantagem competitiva

iSPD: An iconic-based modeling simulator for distributed grids

Simulation of large and complex systems, such as computing grids, is a difficult task. Current simulators, despite providing accurate results, are significantly hard to use. They usually demand a strong knowledge of programming, what is not a standard pattern in today's users of grids and high performance computing. The need for computer expertise prevents these users from simulating how the environment will respond to their applications, what may imply in large loss of efficiency, wasting precious computational resources. In this paper we introduce iSPD, iconic Simulator of Parallel and Distributed Systems, which is a simulator where grid models are produced through an iconic interface. We describe the simulator and its intermediate model languages. Results presented here provide an insight in its easy-of-use and accuracy.

Risk-based Modeling to Develop Zoning Criteria for Land-use Near Canadian Airports

Land development in the vicinity of airports often leads to land-use that can attract birds that are hazardous to aviation operations. For this reason, certain forms of land-use have traditionally been discouraged within prescribed distances of Canadian airports. However, this often leads to an unrealistic prohibition of land-use in the vicinity of airports located in urban settings. Furthermore, it is often unclear that the desired safety goals have been achieved. This paper describes a model that was created to assist in the development of zoning regulations for a future airport site in Canada. The framework links land-use to bird-related safety-risks and aircraft operations by categorizing the predictable relationships between: (i) different land uses found in urbanized and urbanizing settings near airports; (ii) bird species; and (iii) the different safety-risks to aircraft during various phases of flight. The latter is assessed relative to the runway approach and departure paths. Bird species are ranked to reflect the potential severity of an impact with an aircraft (using bird weight, flocking characteristics, and flight behaviours). These criteria are then employed to chart bird-related safety-risks relative to runway reference points. Each form of land-use is categorized to reflect the degree to which it attracts hazardous bird species. From this information, hazard and risk matrices have been developed and applied to the future airport setting, thereby providing risk-based guidance on appropriate land-uses that range from prohibited to acceptable. The framework has subsequently been applied to an existing Canadian airport, and is currently being adapted for national application. The framework provides a risk-based and science-based approach that offers municipalities and property owner’s flexibility in managing the risks to aviation related to their land use.

Statistical Physics and Modeling of Human Mobility

In this thesis, we extend some ideas of statistical physics to describe the properties of human mobility. By using a database containing GPS measures of individual paths (position, velocity and covered space at a spatial scale of 2 Km or a time scale of 30 sec), which includes the 2% of the private vehicles in Italy, we succeed in determining some statistical empirical laws pointing out "universal" characteristics of human mobility. Developing simple stochastic models suggesting possible explanations of the empirical observations, we are able to indicate what are the key quantities and cognitive features that are ruling individuals' mobility. To understand the features of individual dynamics, we have studied different aspects of urban mobility from a physical point of view. We discuss the implications of the Benford's law emerging from the distribution of times elapsed between successive trips. We observe how the daily travel-time budget is related with many aspects of the urban environment, and describe how the daily mobility budget is then spent. We link the scaling properties of individual mobility networks to the inhomogeneous average durations of the activities that are performed, and those of the networks describing people's common use of space with the fractional dimension of the urban territory. We study entropy measures of individual mobility patterns, showing that they carry almost the same information of the related mobility networks, but are also influenced by a hierarchy among the activities performed. We discover that Wardrop's principles are violated as drivers have only incomplete information on traffic state and therefore rely on knowledge on the average travel-times. We propose an assimilation model to solve the intrinsic scattering of GPS data on the street network, permitting the real-time reconstruction of traffic state at a urban scale.

A physics-based correction model for homogenizing sub-daily temperature series

A new physics-based technique for correcting inhomogeneities present in sub-daily temperature records is proposed. The approach accounts for changes in the sensor-shield characteristics that affect the energy balance dependent on ambient weather conditions (radiation, wind). An empirical model is formulated that reflects the main atmospheric processes and can be used in the correction step of a homogenization procedure. The model accounts for short- and long-wave radiation fluxes (including a snow cover component for albedo calculation) of a measurement system, such as a radiation shield. One part of the flux is further modulated by ventilation. The model requires only cloud cover and wind speed for each day, but detailed site-specific information is necessary. The final model has three free parameters, one of which is a constant offset. The three parameters can be determined, e.g., using the mean offsets for three observation times. The model is developed using the example of the change from the Wild screen to the Stevenson screen in the temperature record of Basel, Switzerland, in 1966. It is evaluated based on parallel measurements of both systems during a sub-period at this location, which were discovered during the writing of this paper. The model can be used in the correction step of homogenization to distribute a known mean step-size to every single measurement, thus providing a reasonable alternative correction procedure for high-resolution historical climate series. It also constitutes an error model, which may be applied, e.g., in data assimilation approaches.

A new measure for party coherence: Applying a physics-based concept to the Swiss party system

The paper revives a theoretical definition of party coherence as being composed of two basic elements, cohesion and factionalism, to propose and apply a novel empirical measure based on spin physics. The simultaneous analysis of both components using a single measurement concept is applied to data representing the political beliefs of candidates in the Swiss general elections of 2003 and 2007, proposing a connection between the coherence of the beliefs party members hold and the assessment of parties being at risk of splitting. We also compare our measure with established polarization measures and demonstrate its advantage with respect to multi-dimensional data that lack clear structure. Furthermore, we outline how our analysis supports the distinction between bottom-up and top-down mechanisms of party splitting. In this way, we are able to turn the intuition of coherence into a defined quantitative concept that, additionally, offers a methodological basis for comparative research of party coherence. Our work serves as an example of how a complex systems approach allows to get a new perspective on a long-standing issue in political science.

Development and evaluation of a video-based modeling strategy for the dissemination phase of a school health tobacco -use prevention program

Even the best school health education programs will be unsuccessful if they are not disseminated effectively in a manner that encourages classroom adoption and implementation. This study involved two components: (1) the development of a videotape intervention to be used in the dissemination phase of a 4-year, NCI-funded diffusion study and (2) the evaluation of that videotape intervention strategy in comparison with a print (information transfer) strategy. Conceptualization has been guided by Social Learning Theory, Diffusion Theory, and communication theory. Additionally, the PRECEDE Framework has been used. Seventh and 8th grade classroom teachers from Spring Branch Independent School District in west Houston participated in the evaluation of the videotape and print interventions using a 57-item preadoption survey instrument developed by the UT Center for Health Promotion Research and Development. Two-way ANOVA was used to study individual score differences for five outcome variables: Total Scale Score (comprised of 57 predisposing, enabling, and reinforcing items), Adoption Characteristics Subscale, Attitude Toward Innovation Subscale, Receptivity Toward Innovation, and Reinforcement Subscale. The aim of the study is to compare the effect upon score differences of video and print interventions alone and in combination. Seventy-three 7th and 8th grade classroom teachers completed the study providing baseline and post-intervention measures on factors related to the adoption and implementation of tobacco-use prevention programs. Two-way ANOVA, in relation to the study questions, found significant scoring differences for those exposed to the videotape intervention alone for both the Attitude Toward Innovation Subscale and the Receptivity to Adopt Subscale. No significant results were found to suggest that print alone influences favorable scoring differences between baseline and post-intervention testing. One interaction effect was found suggesting video and print combined are more effective for influencing favorable scoring differences for the Reinforcement for the Adoption Subscale.^ This research is unique in that it represents a newly emerging field in health promotion communications research with implications for Social Learning Theory, Diffusion Theory, and communication science that are applicable to the development of improved school health interventions. ^

Three dimensional (3D) microstructure-based modeling of interfacial decohesion in particle reinforced metal matrix composites

Modeling and prediction of the overall elastic–plastic response and local damage mechanisms in heterogeneous materials, in particular particle reinforced composites, is a very complex problem. Microstructural complexities such as the inhomogeneous spatial distribution of particles, irregular morphology of the particles, and anisotropy in particle orientation after secondary processing, such as extrusion, significantly affect deformation behavior. We have studied the effect of particle/matrix interface debonding in SiC particle reinforced Al alloy matrix composites with (a) actual microstructure consisting of angular SiC particles and (b) idealized ellipsoidal SiC particles. Tensile deformation in SiC particle reinforced Al matrix composites was modeled using actual microstructures reconstructed from serial sectioning approach. Interfacial debonding was modeled using user-defined cohesive zone elements. Modeling with the actual microstructure (versus idealized ellipsoids) has a significant influence on: (a) localized stresses and strains in particle and matrix, and (b) far-field strain at which localized debonding takes place. The angular particles exhibited higher degree of load transfer and are more sensitive to interfacial debonding. Larger decreases in stress are observed in the angular particles, because of the flat surfaces, normal to the loading axis, which bear load. Furthermore, simplification of particle morphology may lead to erroneous results.

Agent-based modeling and simulation for the design of the future european Air Traffic Management system: the experience of CASSIOPEIA

The SESAR (Single European Sky ATM Research) program is an ambitious re-search and development initiative to design the future European air traffic man-agement (ATM) system. The study of the behavior of ATM systems using agent-based modeling and simulation tools can help the development of new methods to improve their performance. This paper presents an overview of existing agent-based approaches in air transportation (paying special attention to the challenges that exist for the design of future ATM systems) and, subsequently, describes a new agent-based approach that we proposed in the CASSIOPEIA project, which was developed according to the goals of the SESAR program. In our approach, we use agent models for different ATM stakeholders, and, in contrast to previous work, our solution models new collaborative decision processes for flow traffic management, it uses an intermediate level of abstraction (useful for simulations at larger scales), and was designed to be a practical tool (open and reusable) for the development of different ATM studies. It was successfully applied in three stud-ies related to the design of future ATM systems in Europe.

Finite element code-based modeling of a multi-feature isolation system and passive alleviation of possible inner pounding

The existing seismic isolation systems are based on well-known and accepted physical principles, but they are still having some functional drawbacks. As an attempt of improvement, the Roll-N-Cage (RNC) isolator has been recently proposed. It is designed to achieve a balance in controlling isolator displacement demands and structural accelerations. It provides in a single unit all the necessary functions of vertical rigid support, horizontal flexibility with enhanced stability, resistance to low service loads and minor vibration, and hysteretic energy dissipation characteristics. It is characterized by two unique features that are a self-braking (buffer) and a self-recentering mechanism. This paper presents an advanced representation of the main and unique features of the RNC isolator using an available finite element code called SAP2000. The validity of the obtained SAP2000 model is then checked using experimental, numerical and analytical results. Then, the paper investigates the merits and demerits of activating the built-in buffer mechanism on both structural pounding mitigation and isolation efficiency. The paper addresses the problem of passive alleviation of possible inner pounding within the RNC isolator, which may arise due to the activation of its self-braking mechanism under sever excitations such as near-fault earthquakes. The results show that the obtained finite element code-based model can closely match and accurately predict the overall behavior of the RNC isolator with effectively small errors. Moreover, the inherent buffer mechanism of the RNC isolator could mitigate or even eliminate direct structure-tostructure pounding under severe excitation considering limited septation gaps between adjacent structures. In addition, the increase of inherent hysteretic damping of the RNC isolator can efficiently limit its peak displacement together with the severity of the possibly developed inner pounding and, therefore, alleviate or even eliminate the possibly arising negative effects of the buffer mechanism on the overall RNC-isolated structural responses.

Overcoming performance and convergence issues of discrete transform based modeling of crosslinking classical and reversible deactivated radical polymerizations

Population balances of polymer species in terms 'of discrete transforms with respect to counts of groups lead to tractable first order partial differential equations when ali rate constants are independent of chain length and loop formation is negligible [l]. Average molecular weights in the absence ofgelation are long known to be readily found through integration of an initial value problem. The extension to size distribution prediction is also feasible, but its performance is often lower to the one provided by methods based upon real chain length domain [2]. Moreover, the absence ofagood starting procedure and a higher numerical sensitivity hás decisively impaired its application to non-linear reversibly deactivated polymerizations, namely NMRP [3].

On the use of finite field based modeling in polynomial manipulation,

Vita: p. 105.

Contributions to Physics-Based Aeroservoelastic Uncertainty Analysis

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Forecasting Helicoverpa populations in Australia: A comparison of regression based models and a bio-climatic based modeling approach

Long-term forecasts of pest pressure are central to the effective management of many agricultural insect pests. In the eastern cropping regions of Australia, serious infestations of Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hübner)(Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) are experienced annually. Regression analyses of a long series of light-trap catches of adult moths were used to describe the seasonal dynamics of both species. The size of the spring generation in eastern cropping zones could be related to rainfall in putative source areas in inland Australia. Subsequent generations could be related to the abundance of various crops in agricultural areas, rainfall and the magnitude of the spring population peak. As rainfall figured prominently as a predictor variable, and can itself be predicted using the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trap catches were also related to this variable. The geographic distribution of each species was modelled in relation to climate and CLIMEX was used to predict temporal variation in abundance at given putative source sites in inland Australia using historical meteorological data. These predictions were then correlated with subsequent pest abundance data in a major cropping region. The regression-based and bioclimatic-based approaches to predicting pest abundance are compared and their utility in predicting and interpreting pest dynamics are discussed.