Quantifying Uncertainty in Real Time Performance Measurement for Highway Winter Maintenance Operations – Phase 2, RB03-013, 2014

Winter weather in Iowa is often unpredictable and can have an adverse impact on traffic flow. The Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) attempts to lessen the impact of winter weather events on traffic speeds with various proactive maintenance operations. In order to assess the performance of these maintenance operations, it would be beneficial to develop a model for expected speed reduction based on weather variables and normal maintenance schedules. Such a model would allow the Iowa DOT to identify situations in which speed reductions were much greater than or less than would be expected for a given set of storm conditions, and make modifications to improve efficiency and effectiveness. The objective of this work was to predict speed changes relative to baseline speed under normal conditions, based on nominal maintenance schedules and winter weather covariates (snow type, temperature, and wind speed), as measured by roadside weather stations. This allows for an assessment of the impact of winter weather covariates on traffic speed changes, and estimation of the effect of regular maintenance passes. The researchers chose events from Adair County, Iowa and fit a linear model incorporating the covariates mentioned previously. A Bayesian analysis was conducted to estimate the values of the parameters of this model. Specifically, the analysis produces a distribution for the parameter value that represents the impact of maintenance on traffic speeds. The effect of maintenance is not a constant, but rather a value that the researchers have some uncertainty about and this distribution represents what they know about the effects of maintenance. Similarly, examinations of the distributions for the effects of winter weather covariates are possible. Plots of observed and expected traffic speed changes allow a visual assessment of the model fit. Future work involves expanding this model to incorporate many events at multiple locations. This would allow for assessment of the impact of winter weather maintenance across various situations, and eventually identify locations and times in which maintenance could be improved.

STRATEGIC-1: A multiple-lines, randomized, open-label GERCOR phase III study in patients with unresectable wild-type RAS metastatic colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The management of unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) is a comprehensive treatment strategy involving several lines of therapy, maintenance, salvage surgery, and treatment-free intervals. Besides chemotherapy (fluoropyrimidine, oxaliplatin, irinotecan), molecular-targeted agents such as anti-angiogenic agents (bevacizumab, aflibercept, regorafenib) and anti-epidermal growth factor receptor agents (cetuximab, panitumumab) have become available. Ultimately, given the increasing cost of new active compounds, new strategy trials are needed to define the optimal use and the best sequencing of these agents. Such new clinical trials require alternative endpoints that can capture the effect of several treatment lines and be measured earlier than overall survival to help shorten the duration and reduce the size and cost of trials. METHODS/DESIGN: STRATEGIC-1 is an international, open-label, randomized, multicenter phase III trial designed to determine an optimally personalized treatment sequence of the available treatment modalities in patients with unresectable RAS wild-type mCRC. Two standard treatment strategies are compared: first-line FOLFIRI-cetuximab, followed by oxaliplatin-based second-line chemotherapy with bevacizumab (Arm A) vs. first-line OPTIMOX-bevacizumab, followed by irinotecan-based second-line chemotherapy with bevacizumab, and by an anti-epidermal growth factor receptor monoclonal antibody with or without irinotecan as third-line treatment (Arm B). The primary endpoint is duration of disease control. A total of 500 patients will be randomized in a 1:1 ratio to one of the two treatment strategies. DISCUSSION: The STRATEGIC-1 trial is designed to give global information on the therapeutic sequences in patients with unresectable RAS wild-type mCRC that in turn is likely to have a significant impact on the management of this patient population. The trial is open for inclusion since August 2013. TRIAL REGISTRATION: STRATEGIC-1 is registered at Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01910610, 23 July, 2013. STRATEGIC-1 is registered at EudraCT-No.: 2013-001928-19, 25 April, 2013.

Influence of the temperature and type of salt on the phase equilibrium of peg 1500 + potassium phosphate and peg 1500 + sodium citrate aqueous two-phase systems

The present work analyzed the effect of the temperature and type of salt on the phase equilibrium of aqueous two-phase systems (ATPS) formed by poly (ethylene glycol) (PEG) 1500 + potassium phosphate, from (278.15 to 318.15) K, and PEG 1500 + sodium citrate, from (278.15 to 298.15) K. The rise of the temperature normally increased the slope of the tie line (STL). With respect to the influence of the type of salt, sodium citrate showed better capability to induce phase separation, when compared to potassium phosphate.

Gas-phase solvolysis type reactions of SiCl3+ cations

Gas-phase SiCl3+ ions undergo sequential solvolysis type reactions with water, methanol, ammonia, methylamine and propylene. Studies carried out in a Fourier Transform mass spectrometer reveal that these reactions are facile at 10-8 Torr and give rise to substituted chlorosilyl cations. Ab initio and DFT calculations reveal that these reactions proceed by addition of the silyl cation to the oxygen or nitrogen lone pair followed by a 1,3-H migration in the transition state. These transition states are calculated to lie below the energy of the reactants. By comparison, hydrolysis of gaseous CCl3+ is calculated to involve a substantial positive energy barrier.

Correlation-type structure activity relationships for the kinetics of gas-phase RO2 self-reactions and reaction with HO2

Structure activity relationships (SARs) are presented for the gas-phase reactions of RO2 with HO2, and the self- and cross-reactions of RO2. For RO2+HO2 the SAR is based upon a correlation between the logarithm of the measured rate coefficient and a calculated ionisation potential for the molecule R-CH=CH2, R being the same group in both the radical and molecular analogue. The correlation observed is strong and only for one RO2 species does the measured rate coefficient deviate by more than a factor of two from the linear least-squares regression line. For the self- and cross-reactions of RO2 radicals, the SAR is based upon a correlation between the logarithm of the measured rate coefficient and the calculated electrostatic potential (ESP) at the equivalent carbon atom in the RH molecule to which oxygen is attached in RO2, again R being the same group in the molecule and the radical. For cases where R is a simple alkyl-group, a strong linear correlation observed. For RO2 radicals which contain lone pair-bearing substituents and for which the calculated ESP<-0.05 self-reaction rate coefficients appear to be insensitive to the value of the ESP. For RO2 of this type with ESP>-0.05 a linear relationship between log k and the ESP is again observed. Using the relationships, 84 out of the 85 rate coefficients used to develop the SARs are predicted to within a factor of three of their measured values. A relationship is also presented that allows the prediction of the Arrhenius parameters for the self-reactions of simple alkyl RO2 radicals. On the basis of the correlations, predictions of room-temperature rate coefficients are made for a number of atmospherically important peroxyl-peroxyl radical reactions. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non-normal real estate return distributions by property type in the UK

Investment risk models with infinite variance provide a better description of distributions of individual property returns in the IPD UK database over the period 1981 to 2003 than normally distributed risk models. This finding mirrors results in the US and Australia using identical methodology. Real estate investment risk is heteroskedastic, but the characteristic exponent of the investment risk function is constant across time – yet it may vary by property type. Asset diversification is far less effective at reducing the impact of non‐systematic investment risk on real estate portfolios than in the case of assets with normally distributed investment risk. The results, therefore, indicate that multi‐risk factor portfolio allocation models based on measures of investment codependence from finite‐variance statistics are ineffective in the real estate context

Non-normal real estate return distributions by property type in the U.K.

Investment risk models with infinite variance provide a better description of distributions of individual property returns in the IPD database over the period 1981 to 2003 than Normally distributed risk models, which mirrors results in the U.S. and Australia using identical methodology. Real estate investment risk is heteroscedastic, but the Characteristic Exponent of the investment risk function is constant across time yet may vary by property type. Asset diversification is far less effective at reducing the impact of non-systematic investment risk on real estate portfolios than in the case of assets with Normally distributed investment risk. Multi-risk factor portfolio allocation models based on measures of investment codependence from finite-variance statistics are ineffectual in the real estate context.

Effect of architecture on the phase behavior of AB-type block copolymer melts

Equilibrium phase diagrams are calculated for a selection of two-component block copolymer architectures using self-consistent field theory (SCFT). The topology of the phase diagrams is relatively unaffected by differences in architecture, but the phase boundaries shift significantly in composition. The shifts are consistent with the decomposition of architectures into constituent units as proposed by Gido and coworkers, but there are significant quantitative deviations from this principle in the intermediate-segregation regime. Although the complex phase windows continue to be dominated by the gyroid (G) phase, the regions of the newly discovered Fddd (O^70) phase become appreciable for certain architectures and the perforated-lamellar (PL) phase becomes stable when the complex phase windows shift towards high compositional asymmetry.

Testing projected wild bee distributions in agricultural habitats: predictive power depends on species traits and habitat type

Species distribution models (SDM) are increasingly used to understand the factors that regulate variation in biodiversity patterns and to help plan conservation strategies. However, these models are rarely validated with independently collected data and it is unclear whether SDM performance is maintained across distinct habitats and for species with different functional traits. Highly mobile species, such as bees, can be particularly challenging to model. Here, we use independent sets of occurrence data collected systematically in several agricultural habitats to test how the predictive performance of SDMs for wild bee species depends on species traits, habitat type, and sampling technique. We used a species distribution modeling approach parametrized for the Netherlands, with presence records from 1990 to 2010 for 193 Dutch wild bees. For each species, we built a Maxent model based on 13 climate and landscape variables. We tested the predictive performance of the SDMs with independent datasets collected from orchards and arable fields across the Netherlands from 2010 to 2013, using transect surveys or pan traps. Model predictive performance depended on species traits and habitat type. Occurrence of bee species specialized in habitat and diet was better predicted than generalist bees. Predictions of habitat suitability were also more precise for habitats that are temporally more stable (orchards) than for habitats that suffer regular alterations (arable), particularly for small, solitary bees. As a conservation tool, SDMs are best suited to modeling rarer, specialist species than more generalist and will work best in long-term stable habitats. The variability of complex, short-term habitats is difficult to capture in such models and historical land use generally has low thematic resolution. To improve SDMs’ usefulness, models require explanatory variables and collection data that include detailed landscape characteristics, for example, variability of crops and flower availability. Additionally, testing SDMs with field surveys should involve multiple collection techniques.

An extinction-survival-type phase transition in the probabilistic cellular automaton p182-q200

We investigate the critical behaviour of a probabilistic mixture of cellular automata (CA) rules 182 and 200 (in Wolfram`s enumeration scheme) by mean-field analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. We found that as we switch off one CA and switch on the other by the variation of the single parameter of the model, the probabilistic CA (PCA) goes through an extinction-survival-type phase transition, and the numerical data indicate that it belongs to the directed percolation universality class of critical behaviour. The PCA displays a characteristic stationary density profile and a slow, diffusive dynamics close to the pure CA 200 point that we discuss briefly. Remarks on an interesting related stochastic lattice gas are addressed in the conclusions.

Thermal phase transitions for Dicke-type models in the ultrastrong-coupling limit

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Asymmetrical magnetization in three-phase core type transformers

The performance of the three-phase core type transformers, under AC/DC double excitation is discussed in this work. It is presented a mathematical model that considers the mutual coupling between phases and the magnetic nonlinearity. The validity of the proposed model is verified by means of the experimental and simulated results.

Hollow-fiber liquid-phase microextraction of amphetamine-type stimulants in human hair samples

A fast method was optimized and validated in order to quantify amphetamine-type stimulants (amphetamine, AMP; methamphetamine, MAMP; fenproporex, FPX; 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine, MDMA; and 3,4-methylenedioxyamphetamine, MDA) in human hair samples. The method was based in an initial procedure of decontamination of hair samples (50 mg) with dichloromethane, followed by alkaline hydrolysis and extraction of the amphetamines using hollow-fiber liquid-phase micro extraction (HF-LPME) in the three-phase mode. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) was used for identification and quantification of the analytes. The LoQs obtained for all amphetamines (around 0.05 ng/mg) were below the cut-off value (0.2 ng/mg) established by the Society of Hair Testing (SoHT). The method showed to be simple and precise. The intra-day and inter-day precisions were within 10.6% and 11.4%, respectively, with the use of only two deuteratecl internal standards (AMP-d5 and MDMA-d5). By using the weighted least squares linear regression (1/x(2)), the accuracy of the method was satisfied in the lower concentration levels (accuracy values better than 87%). Hair samples collected from six volunteers who reported regular use of amphetamines were submitted to the developed method. Drug detection was observed in all samples of the volunteers. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Phase I clinical trial of lodenafil carbonate, a new phosphodiesterase Type 5 (PDE5) inhibitor, in healthy male volunteers

Lodenafil carbonate is a new phosphodiesterase Type 5 (PDE5) inhibitor used in treatment of erectile dysfunction. Objective: The present study was conducted to evaluate the safety, tolerability, and pharmacokinetics of lodenafil carbonate after administering ascending (1 - 100 mg) single oral doses to healthy male volunteers (n = 33). Methods: The study was an open-label, dose-escalation, Phase I clinical trial involving the administration of single oral doses of lodenafil carbonate. Lodenafil carbonate was administered sequentially, escalating in single doses of 1 mg - 100 mg with a washout period of at least 1 week between each dose. The progression to the next dose was allowed after clinical and laboratory exams, Ambulatory Monitoring of Arterial Pressure (AMAP) without relevant clinical modifications and adverse events without clinical relevancy. Blood samples were collected at pre-dose, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1, 1.25, 1.5, 1.75, 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5, 4, 4.5, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 20 and 24 h post-dosing. Plasma samples for measurement of lodenafil carbonate and lodenafil were analyzed by liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry. Results: No serious adverse events were observed, and none of the subjects discontinued the study due to intolerance. The AMAP measurements, clinical and laboratory exams and ECG revealed no significant changes even at higher doses. Lodenafil carbonate was not detected in any samples, indicating that it acts as a prodrug. The mean lodenafil pharmacokinetic parameters for t(max) and t(1/2) were 1.6 (+/- 0.4) h and 3.3 (+/- 1.1) h, respectively. This study demonstrated that lodenafil carbonate was well tolerated and showed a good safety profile in healthy male volunteers.

Surgical treatment of globe subluxation in the active phase of the myogenic type of Graves orbitopathy: case reports

The purpose of the present article is to present and discuss two cases of globe subluxation in the active phase of myogenic Graves' orbitopathy and to evaluate the prevalence of this phenomenon. Two patients with the myogenic variant of Graves' orbitopathy that had being treated with oral and intravenous steroid pulses developed globe subluxation. Both had to have urgent eyelid and orbital decompression. After these observations, we reviewed the medical records of a sample of 284 patients (482 orbits) who had had orbital decompression at our Institution from 1992 to 2010, with a search for cases presenting severe proptosis or globe subluxation in the active phase of myogenic Graves' orbitopathy. No patient had to have decompression for globe subluxation in the active phase of Graves' orbitopathy. The prevalence of this event as an indication for surgery in the myogenic variant of Graves' orbitopathy was therefore 0.7% (2/284) or even less. The combination of lowering the upper eyelid and orbital decompression had a dramatic therapeutic effect on these patients despite the presence of intense inflammatory signs in the orbits. In conclusion, patients affected with the myogenic variant of Graves' orbitopathy may develop globe subluxation. Urgent surgical treatments should not be postponed despite the presence of active inflammation.