A computational framework for uncertainty integration in stochastic unit commitment with intermittent renewable energy sources

The penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources (IRESs) into power grids has increased in the last decade. Integration of wind farms and solar systems as the major IRESs have significantly boosted the level of uncertainty in operation of power systems. This paper proposes a comprehensive computational framework for quantification and integration of uncertainties in distributed power systems (DPSs) with IRESs. Different sources of uncertainties in DPSs such as electrical load, wind and solar power forecasts and generator outages are covered by the proposed framework. Load forecast uncertainty is assumed to follow a normal distribution. Wind and solar forecast are implemented by a list of prediction intervals (PIs) ranging from 5% to 95%. Their uncertainties are further represented as scenarios using a scenario generation method. Generator outage uncertainty is modeled as discrete scenarios. The integrated uncertainties are further incorporated into a stochastic security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) problem and a heuristic genetic algorithm is utilized to solve this stochastic SCUC problem. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, five deterministic and four stochastic case studies are implemented. Generation costs as well as different reserve strategies are discussed from the perspectives of system economics and reliability. Comparative results indicate that the planned generation costs and reserves are different from the realized ones. The stochastic models show better robustness than deterministic ones. Power systems run a higher level of risk during peak load hours.

Femoroacetabular impingement osteoplasty is any resected amount safe? A laboratory based experiment with sawbones

There is an increased risk of fracture following osteoplasty of the femoral neck for cam-type femoroacetabular impingement (FAI). Resection of up to 30% of the anterolateral head–neck junction has previously been considered to be safe, however, iatrogenic fractures have been reported with resections within these limits. We re-evaluated the amount of safe resection at the anterolateral femoral head–neck junction using a biomechanically consistent model.In total, 28 composite bones were studied in four groups: control, 10% resection, 20% resection and 30% resection. An axial load was applied to the adducted and flexed femur. Peak load, deflection at time of fracture and energy to fracture were assessed using comparison groups.There was a marked difference in the mean peak load to fracture between the control group and the 10% resection group (p < 0.001). The control group also tolerated significantly more deflection before failure (p < 0.04). The mean peak load (p = 0.172), deflection (p = 0.547), and energy to fracture (p = 0.306) did not differ significantly between the 10%, 20%, and 30% resection groups.Any resection of the anterolateral quadrant of the femoral head–neck junction for FAI significantly reduces the load-bearing capacity of the proximal femur. After initial resection of cortical bone, there is no further relevant loss of stability regardless of the amount of trabecular bone resected.Based on our findings we recommend any patients who undergo anterolateral femoral head–neck junction osteoplasty should be advised to modify their post-operative routine until cortical remodelling occurs to minimise the subsequent fracture risk.

Integration of renewable generation uncertainties into stochastic unit commitment considering reserve and risk: a comparative study

The uncertainties of renewable energy have brought great challenges to power system commitment, dispatches and reserve requirement. This paper presents a comparative study on integration of renewable generation uncertainties into SCUC (stochastic security-constrained unit commitment) considering reserve and risk. Renewable forecast uncertainties are captured by a list of PIs (prediction intervals). A new scenario generation method is proposed to generate scenarios from these PIs. Different system uncertainties are considered as scenarios in the stochastic SCUC problem formulation. Two comparative simulations with single (E1: wind only) and multiple sources of uncertainty (E2: load, wind, solar and generation outages) are investigated. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies are performed. Different generation costs, reserve strategies and associated risks are compared under various scenarios. Demonstrated results indicate the overall costs of E2 is lower than E1 due to penetration of solar power and the associated risk in deterministic cases of E2 is higher than E1. It implies the superimposed effect of uncertainties during uncertainty integration. The results also demonstrate that power systems run a higher level of risk during peak load hours, and that stochastic models are more robust than deterministic ones.

Comparative Study of the Mechanical Resistance of 2 Separate Plates and 2 Overlaid Plates Used in the Fixation of the Mandibular Condyle: An In Vitro Study

Purpose: The objective of this study was to carry out a comparative evaluation of the mechanical resistance of 2 rigid internal fixation techniques for fractures of the mandibular condyle using miniplates.Materials and Methods: Fort), polyurethane resin replicas of human hemimandibles were used. The hemimandibles were sectioned to simulate a high subcondylar fracture and then stabilized with 2 fixing techniques using 2.0-mm system plates and screws. The fixation techniques were 2 separate 4-hole plates with 8 screws, and 2 overlaid 4-hole plates with 4 screws. Each system was submitted to load tests, with the application of the load in mediolateral and anteroposterior directions in an Instron 4411 universal assay machine (Instron, Norwood, MA).Results: Load values and peak displacement were measured. Means and standard deviations were evaluated by analysis of variance (P < .05) and Tukey tests, in which it was verified that the anteroposterior peak load value was affected by the arrangement of the plates on the models, although no differences were observed between the groups for the mediolateral peak load. The arrangement of the plates did not have any influence on peak displacement. Similarly, the final value of the mediolateral load was not affected by the arrangement of the plates on the model.Conclusion: The experimental model with 2 separate plates was statistically superior to the model with 2 overlaid plates only in relation to anteroposterior peak load. Despite showing superiority in mediolateral peak load and peak displacement, there was no statistical difference between the groups for these parameters. (C) 2009 American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons

Metaheurística particle swarm utilizada para alocação ótima de bancos de capacitores em sistemas de distribuição radial

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Planejamento da expansão de sistemas de transmissão considerando análise de confiabilidade e incertezas na demanda futura

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Mikrobielle Prozesskontrolle in Biogasanlagen durch Monitoring der Kohlenstoff-Isotopenverhältnisse im Gasbereich

Der zunehmende Anteil von Strom aus erneuerbaren Energiequellen erfordert ein dynamisches Konzept, um Spitzenlastzeiten und Versorgungslücken aus der Wind- und Solarenergie ausgleichen zu können. Biogasanlagen können aufgrund ihrer hohen energetischen Verfügbarkeit und der Speicherbarkeit von Biogas eine flexible Energiebereitstellung ermöglichen und darüber hinaus über ein „Power-to-Gas“-Verfahren bei einem kurzzeitigen Überschuss von Strom eine Überlastung des Stromnetzes verhindern. Ein nachfrageorientierter Betrieb von Biogasanlagen stellt jedoch hohe Anforderungen an die Mikrobiologie im Reaktor, die sich an die häufig wechselnden Prozessbedingungen wie der Raumbelastung im Reaktor anpassen muss. Eine Überwachung des Fermentationsprozesses in Echtzeit ist daher unabdingbar, um Störungen in den mikrobiellen Gärungswegen frühzeitig erkennen und adäquat entgegenwirken zu können. rnBisherige mikrobielle Populationsanalysen beschränken sich auf aufwendige, molekularbiologische Untersuchungen des Gärsubstrates, deren Ergebnisse dem Betreiber daher nur zeitversetzt zur Verfügung stehen. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurde erstmalig ein Laser-Absorptionsspektrometer zur kontinuierlichen Messung der Kohlenstoff-Isotopenverhältnisse des Methans an einer Forschungsbiogasanlage erprobt. Dabei konnten, in Abhängigkeit der Raumbelastung und Prozessbedingungen variierende Isotopenverhältnisse gemessen werden. Anhand von Isolaten aus dem untersuchten Reaktor konnte zunächst gezeigt werden, dass für jeden Methanogenesepfad (hydrogeno-troph, aceto¬klastisch sowie methylotroph) eine charakteristische, natürliche Isotopensignatur im Biogas nachgewiesen werden kann, sodass eine Identifizierung der aktuell dominierenden methanogenen Reaktionen anhand der Isotopen-verhältnisse im Biogas möglich ist. rnDurch den Einsatz von 13C- und 2H-isotopen¬markierten Substraten in Rein- und Mischkulturen und Batchreaktoren, sowie HPLC- und GC-Unter¬suchungen der Stoffwechselprodukte konnten einige bislang unbekannte C-Flüsse in Bioreaktoren festgestellt werden, die sich wiederum auf die gemessenen Isotopenverhältnisse im Biogas auswirken können. So konnte die Entstehung von Methanol sowie dessen mikrobieller Abbauprodukte bis zur finalen CH4-Bildung anhand von fünf Isolaten erstmalig in einer landwirtschaftlichen Biogasanlage rekonstruiert und das Vorkommen methylotropher Methanogenesewege nachgewiesen werden. Mithilfe molekularbiologischer Methoden wurden darüber hinaus methanoxidierende Bakterien zahlreicher, unbekannter Arten im Reaktor detektiert, deren Vorkommen aufgrund des geringen O2-Gehaltes in Biogasanlagen bislang nicht erwartet wurde. rnDurch die Konstruktion eines synthetischen DNA-Stranges mit den Bindesequenzen für elf spezifische Primerpaare konnte eine neue Methode etabliert werden, anhand derer eine Vielzahl mikrobieller Zielorganismen durch die Verwendung eines einheitlichen Kopienstandards in einer real-time PCR quantifiziert werden können. Eine über 70 Tage durchgeführte, wöchentliche qPCR-Analyse von Fermenterproben zeigte, dass die Isotopenverhältnisse im Biogas signifikant von der Zusammensetzung der Reaktormikrobiota beeinflusst sind. Neben den aktuell dominierenden Methanogenesewegen war es auch möglich, einige bakterielle Reaktionen wie eine syntrophe Acetatoxidation, Acetogenese oder Sulfatreduktion anhand der δ13C (CH4)-Werte zu identifizieren, sodass das hohe Potential einer kontinuierlichen Isotopenmessung zur Prozessanalytik in Biogasanlagen aufgezeigt werden konnte.rn

Investigation of knot nests on Ellesmere Island

Knots arrive on Ellesmere Island in late May or early June. At Hazen Camp small flocks were present on 3 June 1966, but the main influx occurred 5 June when many flocks were seen ranging in size from 6 to 60 individuals. The sexes appeared to arrive together, but the manner of pair-formation was not determined. By 7 June pairs were distributed over the tundra with large feeding flocks forming at snowfree wet marshy areas. Most nests were on Dryas-hummocked slopes and tundra, either dry or moist, with some on clay plains and summits in a mixed Dryas and Salix vegetation. A census area of 240 ha supported at least 3 breeding pairs, and possibly 5; the total number of pairs breeding in the Hazen Camp study area was estimated to be about 25 (1.09 pairs/km**2). Egg-laying (4 nests) extended from 15 to 28 June, with 3 of the 4 sets completed between 20 and 23 June. Both sexes incubated, one of the pair more regularly than the other. The song-flight display of the male was performed most frequently during egglaying and incubation. The incubation period of the last egg in one clutch was established as being between 21.5 and 22.4 days. Four nests hatched between 12 and 20 July, and the hatching period of the entire clutch was less than 24 hours. Four of 7 nests (57 %) survived and egg survival (53 %) was low. Families left the nesting area so on after hatching, concentrating at ponds where food was readily available for the young. Both adults attended the young during the pre-fledging period, but the females apparently departed before the young had hedged. Males left once the young could fly and the adult fall migration was complete by early August. Most 01 the young departed belore mid-August. Fall migration is complete by late August or early September. The breeding season appears to be timed to peak load supply for the young. Adult Chironomidae emergence was highest between 3 and 17 July, the period during which most successful nests hatched. The increasing scarcity of adult insects for the young after mid-July was offset by family movements over the tundra and the early departure of half the adult population. Food also seemed to influence the distribution of breeding pairs aver the tundra, restricting them to the general vicinity of marshes, streams, and ponds where food is most available when the young hatch. Territoriality in the Knot appears to be closely associated with the protection of the nest against predators and has at least a local effect in regulating the number of breeding pairs. Plant material was important in the diet of adult Knots throughout the summer and the primary food from the time of arrival until mid-June. After mid-June the percentage of animal matter increased as dipterous insects became available (especially adult Chironomidae), but plant materials continued to constitute a large part of the diet, usually more than 50 %. The food of the young before fledging consisted principally of adult chironomids.

Mechanical behavior and deformation micromechanisms of polypropylene nonwoven fabrics as a function of temperature and strain rate

The mechanical behavior and the deformation and failure micromechanisms of a thermally-bonded polypropylene nonwoven fabric were studied as a function of temperature and strain rate. Mechanical tests were carried out from 248 K (below the glass transition temperature) up to 383 K at strain rates in the range ≈10−3 s−1 to 10−1 s−1. In addition, individual fibers extracted from the nonwoven fabric were tested under the same conditions. Micromechanisms of deformation and failure at the fiber level were ascertained by means of mechanical tests within the scanning electron microscope while the strain distribution at the macroscopic level upon loading was determined by means of digital image correlation. It was found that the nonwoven behavior was mainly controlled by the properties of the fibers and of the interfiber bonds. Fiber properties determined the nonlinear behavior before the peak load while the interfiber bonds controlled the localization of damage after the peak load. The influence of these properties on the strength, ductility and energy absorbed during deformation is discussed from the experimental observations.

A techno-economic comparison of power production by biomass fast pyrolysis with gasification and combustion

This paper presents an assessment of the technical and economic performance of thermal processes to generate electricity from a wood chip feedstock by combustion, gasification and fast pyrolysis. The scope of the work begins with the delivery of a wood chip feedstock at a conversion plant and ends with the supply of electricity to the grid, incorporating wood chip preparation, thermal conversion, and electricity generation in dual fuel diesel engines. Net generating capacities of 1–20 MWe are evaluated. The techno-economic assessment is achieved through the development of a suite of models that are combined to give cost and performance data for the integrated system. The models include feed pretreatment, combustion, atmospheric and pressure gasification, fast pyrolysis with pyrolysis liquid storage and transport (an optional step in de-coupled systems) and diesel engine or turbine power generation. The models calculate system efficiencies, capital costs and production costs. An identical methodology is applied in the development of all the models so that all of the results are directly comparable. The electricity production costs have been calculated for 10th plant systems, indicating the costs that are achievable in the medium term after the high initial costs associated with novel technologies have reduced. The costs converge at the larger scale with the mean electricity price paid in the EU by a large consumer, and there is therefore potential for fast pyrolysis and diesel engine systems to sell electricity directly to large consumers or for on-site generation. However, competition will be fierce at all capacities since electricity production costs vary only slightly between the four biomass to electricity systems that are evaluated. Systems de-coupling is one way that the fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system can distinguish itself from the other conversion technologies. Evaluations in this work show that situations requiring several remote generators are much better served by a large fast pyrolysis plant that supplies fuel to de-coupled diesel engines than by constructing an entire close-coupled system at each generating site. Another advantage of de-coupling is that the fast pyrolysis conversion step and the diesel engine generation step can operate independently, with intermediate storage of the fast pyrolysis liquid fuel, increasing overall reliability. Peak load or seasonal power requirements would also benefit from de-coupling since a small fast pyrolysis plant could operate continuously to produce fuel that is stored for use in the engine on demand. Current electricity production costs for a fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system are 0.091/kWh at 1 MWe when learning effects are included. These systems are handicapped by the typical characteristics of a novel technology: high capital cost, high labour, and low reliability. As such the more established combustion and steam cycle produces lower cost electricity under current conditions. The fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system is a low capital cost option but it also suffers from relatively low system efficiency particularly at high capacities. This low efficiency is the result of a low conversion efficiency of feed energy into the pyrolysis liquid, because of the energy in the char by-product. A sensitivity analysis has highlighted the high impact on electricity production costs of the fast pyrolysis liquids yield. The liquids yield should be set realistically during design, and it should be maintained in practice by careful attention to plant operation and feed quality. Another problem is the high power consumption during feedstock grinding. Efficiencies may be enhanced in ablative fast pyrolysis which can tolerate a chipped feedstock. This has yet to be demonstrated at commercial scale. In summary, the fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system has great potential to generate electricity at a profit in the long term, and at a lower cost than any other biomass to electricity system at small scale. This future viability can only be achieved through the construction of early plant that could, in the short term, be more expensive than the combustion alternative. Profitability in the short term can best be achieved by exploiting niches in the market place and specific features of fast pyrolysis. These include: •countries or regions with fiscal incentives for renewable energy such as premium electricity prices or capital grants; •locations with high electricity prices so that electricity can be sold direct to large consumers or generated on-site by companies who wish to reduce their consumption from the grid; •waste disposal opportunities where feedstocks can attract a gate fee rather than incur a cost; •the ability to store fast pyrolysis liquids as a buffer against shutdowns or as a fuel for peak-load generating plant; •de-coupling opportunities where a large, single pyrolysis plant supplies fuel to several small and remote generators; •small-scale combined heat and power opportunities; •sales of the excess char, although a market has yet to be established for this by-product; and •potential co-production of speciality chemicals and fuel for power generation in fast pyrolysis systems.

Modular ESS with second life batteries operating in grid independent mode

This work is part of a bigger project which aims to research the potential development of commercial opportunities for the re-use of batteries after their use in low carbon vehicles on an electricity grid or microgrid system. There are three main revenue streams (peak load lopping on the distribution Network to allow for network re-enforcement deferral, National Grid primary/ secondary/ high frequency response, customer energy management optimization). These incomes streams are dependent on the grid system being present. However, there is additional opportunity to be gained from also using these batteries to provide UPS backup when the grid is no longer present. Most UPS or ESS on the market use new batteries in conjunction with a two level converter interface. This produces a reliable backup solution in the case of loss of mains power, but may be expensive to implement. This paper introduces a modular multilevel cascade converter (MMCC) based ESS using second-life batteries for use on a grid independent industrial plant without any additional onsite generator as a potentially cheaper alternative. The number of modules has been designed for a given reliability target and these modules could be used to minimize/eliminate the output filter. An appropriate strategy to provide voltage and frequency control in a grid independent system is described and simulated under different disturbance conditions such as load switching, fault conditions or a large motor starting. A comparison of the results from the modular topology against a traditional two level converter is provided to prove similar performance criteria. The proposed ESS and control strategy is an acceptable way of providing backup power in the event of loss of grid. Additional financial benefit to the customer may be obtained by using a second life battery in this way.

Sizing energy storage on the 11kV distribution network

The cost and limited flexibility of traditional approaches to 11kV network reinforcement threatens to constrain the uptake of low carbon technologies. Ofgem has released £500m of funding for DNOs to trial innovative techniques and share the learning with the rest of the industry. One of the techniques under study is the addition of Energy Storage at key substations to the network to help with peak load lopping. This paper looks in detail at the sizing algorithm for use in the assessment of alternatives to traditional reinforcement and investigates a method of sizing a battery for use on a Network taking into account load growth, capacity fade and battery lifecycle issues. A further complication to the analysis is the method of operation of the battery system and how this affects the Depth of Discharge (DoD). The proposed method is being trialled on an area of 11kV network in Milton Keynes Central area and the simulation results are presented in this paper.

The Effect of Foam Core Density on the Flexural and Axial Behaviour of Sandwich Panels of Varying Slenderness with Natural Flax-FRP and Glass-FRP Composite Skins

This study investigates the effect of foam core density and skin type on the behaviour of sandwich panels as structural beams tested in four-point bending and axially compressed columns of varying slenderness and skin thickness. Bio-composite unidirectional flax fibre-reinforced polymer (FFRP) is compared to conventional glass-FRP (GFRP) as the skin material used in conjunction with three polyisocyanurate (PIR) foam cores with densities of 32, 64 and 96 kg/m3. Eighteen 1000 mm long flexural specimens were fabricated and tested to failure comparing the effects of foam core density between three-layer FFRP skinned and single-layer GFRP skinned panels. A total of 132 columns with slenderness ratios (kLe/r) ranging from 22 to 62 were fabricated with single-layer GFRP skins, and one-, three-, and five-layer FFRP skins for each of the three foam core densities. The columns were tested to failure in concentric axial compression using pinned-end conditions to compare the effects of each material type and panel height. All specimens had a foam core cross-section of 100x50 mm with 100 mm wide skins of equal thickness. In both flexural and axial loading, panels with skins comprised of three FFRP layers showed equivalent strength to those with a single GFRP layer for all slenderness ratios and core densities examined. Doubling the core density from 32 to 64 kg/m3 and tripling the density to 96 kg/m3 led to flexural strength increases of 82 and 213%, respectively. Both FFRP and GFRP columns showed a similar variety of failure modes related to slenderness. Low slenderness of 22-25 failed largely due to localized single skin buckling, while those with high slenderness of 51-61 failed primarily by global buckling followed by secondary skin buckling. Columns with intermediate slenderness experienced both localized and global failure modes. High density foam cores more commonly exhibited core shear failure. Doubling the core density of the columns resulted in peak axial load increases, across all slenderness ratios, of 73, 56, 72 and 71% for skins with one, three and five FFRP layers, and one GFRP layer, respectively. Tripling the core density resulted in respective peak load increases of 116, 130, 176 and 170%.