Power Study on Testing Epidemic Alternatives

Detecting change points in epidemic models has been studied by many scholars. Yao (1993) summarized five existing test statistics in the literature. Out of those test statistics, it was observed that the likelihood ratio statistic showed its standout power. However, all of the existing test statistics are based on an assumption that population variance is known, which is an unrealistic assumption in practice. To avoid assuming known population variance, a new test statistic for detecting epidemic models is studied in this thesis. The new test statistic is a parameter-free test statistic which is more powerful compared to the existing test statistics. Different sample sizes and lengths of epidemic durations are used for the power comparison purpose. Monte Carlo simulation is used to find the critical values of the new test statistic and to perform the power comparison. Based on the Monte Carlo simulation result, it can be concluded that the sample size and the length of the duration have some effect on the power of the tests. It can also be observed that the new test statistic studied in this thesis has higher power than the existing test statistics do in all of cases.

Advanced Mission Synthesis Algorithms for Vibration-based Accelerated Life-testing

In the field of vibration qualification testing, with the popular Random Control mode of shakers, the specimen is excited by random vibrations typically set in the form of a Power Spectral Density (PSD). The corresponding signals are stationary and Gaussian, i.e. featuring a normal distribution. Conversely, real-life excitations are frequently non-Gaussian, exhibiting high peaks and/or burst signals and/or deterministic harmonic components. The so-called kurtosis is a parameter often used to statistically describe the occurrence and significance of high peak values in a random process. Since the similarity between test input profiles and real-life excitations is fundamental for qualification test reliability, some methods of kurtosis-control can be implemented to synthesize realistic (non-Gaussian) input signals. Durability tests are performed to check the resistance of a component to vibration-based fatigue damage. A procedure to synthesize test excitations which starts from measured data and preserves both the damage potential and the characteristics of the reference signals is desirable. The Fatigue Damage Spectrum (FDS) is generally used to quantify the fatigue damage potential associated with the excitation. The signal synthesized for accelerated durability tests (i.e. with a limited duration) must feature the same FDS as the reference vibration computed for the component’s expected lifetime. Current standard procedures are efficient in synthesizing signals in the form of a PSD, but prove inaccurate if reference data are non-Gaussian. This work presents novel algorithms for the synthesis of accelerated durability test profiles with prescribed FDS and a non-Gaussian distribution. An experimental campaign is conducted to validate the algorithms, by testing their accuracy, robustness, and practical effectiveness. Moreover, an original procedure is proposed for the estimation of the fatigue damage potential, aiming to minimize the computational time. The research is thus supposed to improve both the effectiveness and the efficiency of excitation profile synthesis for accelerated durability tests.

Análise de biomarcadores sanguíneos em estímulos anaeróbios máximos no nado crawl

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Array-CGH testing in spontaneous abortions with normal karyotypes

In about 50% of first trimester spontaneous abortion the cause remains undetermined after standard cytogenetic investigation. We evaluated the usefulness of array-CGH in diagnosing chromosome abnormalities in products of conception from first trimester spontaneous abortions. Cell culture was carried out in short- and long-term cultures of 54 specimens and cytogenetic analysis was successful in 49 of them. Cytogenetic abnormalities (numerical and structural) were detected in 22 (44.89%) specimens. Subsequent, array-CGH based on large insert clones spaced at ~1 Mb intervals over the whole genome was used in 17 cases with normal G-banding karyotype. This revealed chromosome aneuplodies in three additional cases, giving a final total of 51% cases in which an abnormal karyotype was detected. In keeping with other recently published works, this study shows that array-CGH detects abnormalities in a further ~10% of spontaneous abortion specimens considered to be normal using standard cytogenetic methods. As such, array-CGH technique may present a suitable complementary test to cytogenetic analysis in cases with a normal karyotype.

Treadmill exercise testing of asymptomatic men and women without evidence of heart disease

The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis of differences in performance including differences in ST-T wave changes between healthy men and women submitted to an exercise stress test. Two hundred (45.4%) men and 241 (54.6%) women (mean age: 38.7 ± 11.0 years) were submitted to an exercise stress test. Physiologic and electrocardiographic variables were compared by the Student t-test and the chi-square test. To test the hypothesis of differences in ST-segment changes, data were ranked with functional models based on weighted least squares. To evaluate the influence of gender and age on the diagnosis of ST-segment abnormality, a logistic model was adjusted; P < 0.05 was considered to be significant. Rate-pressure product, duration of exercise and estimated functional capacity were higher in men (P < 0.05). Sixteen (6.7%) women and 9 (4.5%) men demonstrated ST-segment upslope ≥0.15 mV or downslope ≥0.10 mV; the difference was not statistically significant. Age increase of one year added 4% to the chance of upsloping of segment ST ≥0.15 mV or downsloping of segment ST ≥0.1 mV (P = 0.03; risk ratio = 1.040, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.002-1.080). Heart rate recovery was higher in women (P < 0.05). The chance of women showing an increase of systolic blood pressure ≤30 mmHg was 85% higher (P = 0.01; risk ratio = 1.85, 95%CI = 1.1-3.05). No significant difference in the frequency of ST-T wave changes was observed between men and women. Other differences may be related to different physical conditioning.

Estimating HIV-1 incidence using the serologic testing algorithm for recent HIV infections at HIV counseling and testing centers in the city of São Paulo, Brazil

The network of HIV counseling and testing centers in São Paulo, Brazil is a major source of data used to build epidemiological profiles of the client population. We examined HIV-1 incidence from November 2000 to April 2001, comparing epidemiological and socio-behavioral data of recently-infected individuals with those with long-standing infection. A less sensitive ELISA was employed to identify recent infection. The overall incidence of HIV-1 infection was 0.53/100/year (95% CI: 0.31-0.85/100/year): 0.77/100/year for males (95% CI: 0.42-1.27/100/year) and 0.22/100/ year (95% CI: 0.05-0.59/100/year) for females. Overall HIV-1 prevalence was 3.2% (95% CI: 2.8-3.7%), being 4.0% among males (95% CI: 3.3-4.7%) and 2.1% among females (95% CI: 1.6-2.8%). Recent infections accounted for 15% of the total (95% CI: 10.2-20.8%). Recent infection correlated with being younger and male (p = 0.019). Therefore, recent infection was more common among younger males and older females.

Development and mechanical testing of a short intramedullary nail for fixation of femoral rotational osteotomy in cerebral palsy patients

Background: Rotational osteotomy is frequently indicated to correct excessive femoral anteversion in cerebral palsy patients. Angled blade plate is the standard fixation device used when performed in the proximal femur, but extensile exposure is required for plate accommodation. The authors developed a short locked intramedullary nail to be applied percutaneously in the fixation of femoral rotational osteotomies in children with cerebral palsy and evaluated its mechanical properties. Methods: The study was divided into three stages. In the first part, a prototype was designed and made based on radiographic measurements of the femoral medullary canal of ten-year-old patients. In the second, synthetic femoral models based on rapid-prototyping of 3D reconstructed images of patients with cerebral palsy were obtained and were employed to adjust the nail prototype to the morphological changes observed in this disease. In the third, rotational osteotomies were simulated using synthetic femoral models stabilized by the nail and by the AO-ASIF fixed-angle blade plate. Mechanical testing was done comparing both devices in bending-compression and torsion. Results: The authors observed proper adaptation of the nail to normal and morphologically altered femoral models, and during the simulated osteotomies. Stiffness in bending-compression was significantly higher in the group fixed by the plate (388.97 +/- 57.25 N/mm) than in that fixed by the nail (268.26 +/- 38.51 N/mm) as torsional relative stiffness was significantly higher in the group fixed by the plate (1.07 +/- 0.36 Nm/degrees) than by the nail (0.35 +/- 0.13 Nm/degrees). Conclusions: Although the device presented adequate design and dimension to fit into the pediatric femur, mechanical tests indicated that the nail was less stable than the blade plate in bending-compression and torsion. This may be a beneficial property, and it can be attributed to the more flexible fixation found in intramedullary devices.

Morphologic changes and removal of debris on apical dentin surfaces after Nd : YAG laser and diode laser irradiation

Objective: To verify the effects of laser energy on intracanal dentin surfaces, by analyzing the morphologic changes and removal of debris in the apical third of 30 extracted human teeth, prepared and irradiated with the Nd:YAG laser and diode laser. Background Data: Lasers have been widely used in endodontics. The morphologic changes in dentin walls caused by Nd: YAG and diode laser irradiation could improve apical seals and cleanliness. Materials and Methods: The protocol used for Nd: YAG laser irradiation was 1.5 W, 100 mJ, and 15 Hz, in pulsed mode, and for diode laser was 2.5 W in continuous mode. Each specimen was irradiated four times at a speed of 2 mm/sec with a 20-sec interval between applications. Five calibrated examiners scored the morphologic changes and debris removal on a 4-point scale. Results: In analyzing the scores, there were no statistically significant differences between the two types of laser for either parameter, according to Kruskal-Wallis testing at p = 0.05. The SEM images showed fusion and resolidification of the dentin surface, with partial removal of debris on the specimens irradiated with the Nd: YAG laser and the diode laser, compared with controls. Conclusion: Both lasers promote morphologic changes and debris removal. These alterations of the dentin surface appeared to be more evident in the Nd: YAG laser group, but the diode laser group showed more uniform changes.

The viscosity parameter's dependence on the profile of the disk scale height

It is shown that, for accretion disks, the height scale is a constant whenever hydrostatic equilibrium and the subsonic turbulence regime hold in the disk. In order to have a variable height scale, processes are needed that contribute an extra term to the continuity equation. This contribution makes the viscosity parameter much greater in the outer region and much smaller in the inner region. Under these circumstances, turbulence is the presumable source of viscosity in the disk.

Cosmic distance duality relation and the shape of galaxy clusters

Context. Observations in the cosmological domain are heavily dependent on the validity of the cosmic distance-duality (DD) relation, eta = D(L)(z)(1+ z)(2)/D(A)(z) = 1, an exact result required by the Etherington reciprocity theorem where D(L)(z) and D(A)(z) are, respectively, the luminosity and angular diameter distances. In the limit of very small redshifts D(A)(z) = D(L)(z) and this ratio is trivially satisfied. Measurements of Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect (SZE) and X-rays combined with the DD relation have been used to determine D(A)(z) from galaxy clusters. This combination offers the possibility of testing the validity of the DD relation, as well as determining which physical processes occur in galaxy clusters via their shapes. Aims. We use WMAP (7 years) results by fixing the conventional Lambda CDM model to verify the consistence between the validity of DD relation and different assumptions about galaxy cluster geometries usually adopted in the literature. Methods. We assume that. is a function of the redshift parametrized by two different relations: eta(z) = 1+eta(0)z, and eta(z) = 1+eta(0)z/(1+z), where eta(0) is a constant parameter quantifying the possible departure from the strict validity of the DD relation. In order to determine the probability density function (PDF) of eta(0), we consider the angular diameter distances from galaxy clusters recently studied by two different groups by assuming elliptical (isothermal) and spherical (non-isothermal) beta models. The strict validity of the DD relation will occur only if the maximum value of eta(0) PDF is centered on eta(0) = 0. Results. It was found that the elliptical beta model is in good agreement with the data, showing no violation of the DD relation (PDF peaked close to eta(0) = 0 at 1 sigma), while the spherical (non-isothermal) one is only marginally compatible at 3 sigma. Conclusions. The present results derived by combining the SZE and X-ray surface brightness data from galaxy clusters with the latest WMAP results (7-years) favors the elliptical geometry for galaxy clusters. It is remarkable that a local property like the geometry of galaxy clusters might be constrained by a global argument provided by the cosmic DD relation.

Cyclic variability of the circumstellar disk of the Be star zeta Tauri II. Testing the 2D global disk oscillation model

Context. About 2/3 of the Be stars present the so-called V/R variations, a phenomenon characterized by the quasi-cyclic variation in the ratio between the violet and red emission peaks of the HI emission lines. These variations are generally explained by global oscillations in the circumstellar disk forming a one-armed spiral density pattern that precesses around the star with a period of a few years. Aims. This paper presents self-consistent models of polarimetric, photometric, spectrophotometric, and interferometric observations of the classical Be star zeta Tauri. The primary goal is to conduct a critical quantitative test of the global oscillation scenario. Methods. Detailed three-dimensional, NLTE radiative transfer calculations were carried out using the radiative transfer code HDUST. The most up-to-date research on Be stars was used as input for the code in order to include a physically realistic description for the central star and the circumstellar disk. The model adopts a rotationally deformed, gravity darkened central star, surrounded by a disk whose unperturbed state is given by a steady-state viscous decretion disk model. It is further assumed that this disk is in vertical hydrostatic equilibrium. Results. By adopting a viscous decretion disk model for zeta Tauri and a rigorous solution of the radiative transfer, a very good fit of the time-average properties of the disk was obtained. This provides strong theoretical evidence that the viscous decretion disk model is the mechanism responsible for disk formation. The global oscillation model successfully fitted spatially resolved VLTI/AMBER observations and the temporal V/R variations in the H alpha and Br gamma lines. This result convincingly demonstrates that the oscillation pattern in the disk is a one-armed spiral. Possible model shortcomings, as well as suggestions for future improvements, are also discussed.

Hubble parameter reconstruction from a principal component analysis: minimizing the bias

Aims. A model-independent reconstruction of the cosmic expansion rate is essential to a robust analysis of cosmological observations. Our goal is to demonstrate that current data are able to provide reasonable constraints on the behavior of the Hubble parameter with redshift, independently of any cosmological model or underlying gravity theory. Methods. Using type Ia supernova data, we show that it is possible to analytically calculate the Fisher matrix components in a Hubble parameter analysis without assumptions about the energy content of the Universe. We used a principal component analysis to reconstruct the Hubble parameter as a linear combination of the Fisher matrix eigenvectors (principal components). To suppress the bias introduced by the high redshift behavior of the components, we considered the value of the Hubble parameter at high redshift as a free parameter. We first tested our procedure using a mock sample of type Ia supernova observations, we then applied it to the real data compiled by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) group. Results. In the mock sample analysis, we demonstrate that it is possible to drastically suppress the bias introduced by the high redshift behavior of the principal components. Applying our procedure to the real data, we show that it allows us to determine the behavior of the Hubble parameter with reasonable uncertainty, without introducing any ad-hoc parameterizations. Beyond that, our reconstruction agrees with completely independent measurements of the Hubble parameter obtained from red-envelope galaxies.

Testing Evolutionary and Dispersion Scenarios for the Settlement of the New World

Background: Discussion surrounding the settlement of the New World has recently gained momentum with advances in molecular biology, archaeology and bioanthropology. Recent evidence from these diverse fields is found to support different colonization scenarios. The currently available genetic evidence suggests a ""single migration'' model, in which both early and later Native American groups derive from one expansion event into the continent. In contrast, the pronounced anatomical differences between early and late Native American populations have led others to propose more complex scenarios, involving separate colonization events of the New World and a distinct origin for these groups. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using large samples of Early American crania, we: 1) calculated the rate of morphological differentiation between Early and Late American samples under three different time divergence assumptions, and compared our findings to the predicted morphological differentiation under neutral conditions in each case; and 2) further tested three dispersal scenarios for the colonization of the New World by comparing the morphological distances among early and late Amerindians, East Asians, Australo-Melanesians and early modern humans from Asia to geographical distances associated with each dispersion model. Results indicate that the assumption of a last shared common ancestor outside the continent better explains the observed morphological differences between early and late American groups. This result is corroborated by our finding that a model comprising two Asian waves of migration coming through Bering into the Americas fits the cranial anatomical evidence best, especially when the effects of diversifying selection to climate are taken into account. Conclusions: We conclude that the morphological diversity documented through time in the New World is best accounted for by a model postulating two waves of human expansion into the continent originating in East Asia and entering through Beringia.

Multistability and Self-Similarity in the Parameter-Space of a Vibro-Impact System

The dynamics of a dissipative vibro-impact system called impact-pair is investigated. This system is similar to Fermi-Ulam accelerator model and consists of an oscillating one-dimensional box containing a point mass moving freely between successive inelastic collisions with the rigid walls of the box. In our numerical simulations, we observed multistable regimes, for which the corresponding basins of attraction present a quite complicated structure with smooth boundary. In addition, we characterize the system in a two-dimensional parameter space by using the largest Lyapunov exponents, identifying self-similar periodic sets. Copyright (C) 2009 Silvio L.T. de Souza et al.

Testing Lorentz Invariance and CPT Conservation with NuMI Neutrinos in the MINOS Near Detector

A search for a sidereal modulation in the MINOS near detector neutrino data was performed. If present, this signature could be a consequence of Lorentz and CPT violation as predicted by the effective field theory called the standard-model extension. No evidence for a sidereal signal in the data set was found, implying that there is no significant change in neutrino propagation that depends on the direction of the neutrino beam in a sun-centered inertial frame. Upper limits on the magnitudes of the Lorentz and CPT violating terms in the standard-model extension lie between 10(-4) and 10(-2) of the maximum expected, assuming a suppression of these signatures by a factor of 10(-17).