Change Point Estimation in Monitoring Survival Time

Precise identification of the time when a change in a hospital outcome has occurred enables clinical experts to search for a potential special cause more effectively. In this paper, we develop change point estimation methods for survival time of a clinical procedure in the presence of patient mix in a Bayesian framework. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to formulate the change point where there exists a step change in the mean survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including location and magnitude of changes and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM control charts for different magnitude scenarios. The proposed estimator shows a better performance where a longer follow-up period, censoring time, is applied. In comparison with the alternative built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the Bayesian estimator. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

Reaction to point and counterpoint : bold adventure or missed opportunity

The draft of the first stage of the national curriculum has now been published. Its final form to be presented in December 2010 should be the centrepiece of Labor’s Educational Revolution. All the other aspects – personal computers, new school buildings, rebates for uniforms and even the MySchool report card – are marginal to the prescription of what is to be taught and learnt in schools. The seven authors in this journal’s Point and Counterpoint (Curriculum Perspectives, 30(1) 2010, pp.53-74) raise a number of both large and small issues in education as a whole, and in science education more particularly. Two of them (Groves and McGarry) make brief reference to earlier attempts to achieve national curriculum in Australia. Those writing from New Zealand and USA will be unaware of just how ambitious this project is for Australia - a bold and overdue educational adventure or a foolish political decision destined to failure, as happened in the later 1970s and the 1990s.

A novel quadratic Edge-based Smoothed Conforming Point Interpolation Method (ES-CPIM) for elasticity problems

his paper formulates an edge-based smoothed conforming point interpolation method (ES-CPIM) for solid mechanics using the triangular background cells. In the ES-CPIM, a technique for obtaining conforming PIM shape functions (CPIM) is used to create a continuous and piecewise quadratic displacement field over the whole problem domain. The smoothed strain field is then obtained through smoothing operation over each smoothing domain associated with edges of the triangular background cells. The generalized smoothed Galerkin weak form is then used to create the discretized system equations. Numerical studies have demonstrated that the ES-CPIM possesses the following good properties: (1) ES-CPIM creates conforming quadratic PIM shape functions, and can always pass the standard patch test; (2) ES-CPIM produces a quadratic displacement field without introducing any additional degrees of freedom; (3) The results of ES-CPIM are generally of very high accuracy.

FGFR2 point mutations in 466 Endometrioid Endometrial Tumors : relationship with MSI, KRAS, PIK3CA, CTNNB1 mutations and Clinicopathological features

Mutations in multiple oncogenes including KRAS, CTNNB1, PIK3CA and FGFR2 have been identified in endometrial cancer. The aim of this study was to provide insight into the clinicopathological features associated with patterns of mutation in these genes, a necessary step in planning targeted therapies for endometrial cancer. 466 endometrioid endometrial tumors were tested for mutations in FGFR2, KRAS, CTNNB1, and PIK3CA. The relationships between mutation status, tumor microsatellite instability (MSI) and clinicopathological features including overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard models. Mutations were identified in FGFR2 (48/466); KRAS (87/464); CTNNB1 (88/454) and PIK3CA (104/464). KRAS and FGFR2 mutations were significantly more common, and CTNNB1 mutations less common, in MSI positive tumors. KRAS and FGFR2 occurred in a near mutually exclusive pattern (p = 0.05) and, surprisingly, mutations in KRAS and CTNNB1 also occurred in a near mutually exclusive pattern (p = 0.0002). Multivariate analysis revealed that mutation in KRAS and FGFR2 showed a trend (p = 0.06) towards longer and shorter DFS, respectively. In the 386 patients with early stage disease (stage I and II), FGFR2 mutation was significantly associated with shorter DFS (HR = 3.24; 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.35-7.77; p = 0.008) and OS (HR = 2.00; 95% CI 1.09-3.65; p = 0.025) and KRAS was associated with longer DFS (HR = 0.23; 95% CI 0.05-0.97; p = 0.045). In conclusion, although KRAS and FGFR2 mutations share similar activation of the MAPK pathway, our data suggest very different roles in tumor biology. This has implications for the implementation of anti-FGFR or anti-MEK biologic therapies.

Mixed-dimensional consistent coupling by multi-point constraint equations for efficient multi-scale modeling

Finding an appropriate linking method to connect different dimensional element types in a single finite element model is a key issue in the multi-scale modeling. This paper presents a mixed dimensional coupling method using multi-point constraint equations derived by equating the work done on either side of interface connecting beam elements and shell elements for constructing a finite element multiscale model. A typical steel truss frame structure is selected as case example and the reduced scale specimen of this truss section is then studied in the laboratory to measure its dynamic and static behavior in global truss and local welded details while the different analytical models are developed for numerical simulation. Comparison of dynamic and static response of the calculated results among different numerical models as well as the good agreement with those from experimental results indicates that the proposed multi-scale model is efficient and accurate.

Fast pyrolysis for better utilization of tamarind seed from renewable energy point of view

The conversion of tamarind seeds into pyrolytic oil by fixed bed fire-tube heating reactor has been taken into consideration in this study. The major components of the system were fixed bed fire-tube heating reactor, liquid condenser and collectors. The raw and crushed tamarind seed in particle form was pyrolized in an electrically heated 10 cm diameter and 27 cm high fixed bed reactor. The products are oil, char and gases. The parameters varied were reactor bed temperature, running time, gas flow rate and feed particle size. The parameters were found to influence the product yields significantly. The maximum liquid yield was 45 wt% at 4000C for a feed size of 1.07cm3 at a gas flow rate of 6 liter/min with a running time of 30 minute. The pyrolysis oil was obtained at these optimum process conditions were analyzed for physical and chemical properties to be used as an alternative fuel.

Point-to-point speed enforcement

This report reviews the use of point-to-point speed enforcement internationally in order to provide principles for better practice for its use in Australia and New Zealand. Point-to-point enforcement is a relatively new technological approach to speed enforcement which involves measuring the average speed of vehicles passing a series of cameras, by using automatic number plate recognition (ANPR) and other technologies. The approach has been implemented or trialled in a number of countries including Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Austria, Italy, Switzerland and France. The major research activities were undertaken for the preparation of this report included: (1) an extensive review of the international literature; (2) stakeholder consultation with international and domestic organisations. To date, there have been no formal evaluations of point-to- point speed enforcement in Australia or New Zealand.

Rotorcraft collision avoidance using spherical image-based visual servoing and single point features

This paper presents a reactive collision avoidance method for small unmanned rotorcraft using spherical image-based visual servoing. Only a single point feature is used to guide the aircraft in a safe spiral like trajectory around the target, whilst a spherical camera model ensures the target always remains visible. A decision strategy to stop the avoidance control is derived based on the properties of spiral like motion, and the effect of accurate range measurements on the control scheme is discussed. We show that using a poor range estimate does not significantly degrade the collision avoidance performance, thus relaxing the need for accurate range measurements. We present simulated and experimental results using a small quad rotor to validate the approach.

A deletion and point mutation study of the human papillomavirus type 16 major capsid gene

Recombinant human papillomavirus (HPV) virus-like particles (VLPs) made from the major capsid protein L1 are promising vaccine candidates for use as vaccines against genital and other HPV infections, and particularly against HPV-16. However, HPV-16 genotype variants have different binding affinities for neutralising mouse Mabs raised against HPV-16 L1 VLPs. This paper analyses, using a panel of well-characterised Mabs, the effects on the antigenicity of various C- and N-terminal deletants of HPV-16 L1 made in insect cells via recombinant baculovirus, of an A → T mutation at residue 266 (A266T), and of a C → G mutation at conserved position 428 (C428G). The effects of these changes on assembly of the variant L1s were studied by electron microscopy. Binding of Mab H16:E70 to A266T was reduced by almost half in comparison to wild type L1. Retention of the C-terminal region 428-483 was critical for the binding of conformation-specific Mabs (H16:V5, H16:E70, H16:U4 and H16:9A) whereas deletion of the nuclear localisation signal (NLS) or the C428G mutation or an N-terminal deletion (residues 2-9) did not affect the antigenicity. The N-terminal deletion resulted in a mixed population of 30 and 55 nm VLPs, which differs from the same construct expressed in Escherichia coli, whereas pentamer aggregates resulted from deletion of the 428-465 region or the C428G mutation. The results have implications both for considering use of single-genotype HPV vaccines, and for design of novel second-generation vaccines. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Motorcycle Safety Research Project Interim Summary Report Research Deliverable 1: Investigate and Develop a Pre-learner Motorcycle Licensing Package

Motorcycle trauma is a serious road safety issue in Queensland and throughout Australia. In 2009, Queensland Transport (later Transport and Main Roads or TMR) appointed CARRS-Q to provide a three-year program of Road Safety Research Services for Motorcycle Rider Safety. Funding for this research originated from the Motor Accident Insurance Commission. This program of research was undertaken to produce knowledge to assist TMR to improve motorcycle safety by further strengthening the licensing and training system to make learner riders safer by developing a pre-learner package (Deliverable 1 which is the focus of this report), and by evaluating the Q-Ride CAP program to ensure that it is maximally effective and contributes to the best possible training for new riders (Deliverable 2), which is the focus of this report. Deliverable 3 of the program identified potential new licensing components that will reduce the incidence of risky riding and improve higher-order cognitive skills in new riders. While fatality and injury rates for learner car drivers are typically lower than for those with intermediate licences, this pattern is not found for learner motorcycle riders. Learner riders cannot be supervised as effectively as learner car drivers and errors are more likely to result in injury for learner riders than learner drivers. It is therefore imperative to improve safety for learner riders. Deliverable 1 examines the potential for improving the motorcycle learner and licence scheme by introducing a pre-learner motorcycle licensing and training scheme within Queensland. The tasks undertaken for Deliverable 1 were a literature review, analysis of learner motorcyclist crash and licensing data, and the development of a potential pre-learner motorcycle rider program.

Contribution to single-point closure Reynolds-stress modelling of inhomogeneous flow

This paper is concerned with recent advances in the development of near wall-normal-free Reynolds-stress models, whose single point closure formulation, based on the inhomogeneity direction concept, is completely independent of the distance from the wall, and of the normal to the wall direction. In the present approach the direction of the inhomogeneity unit vector is decoupled from the coefficient functions of the inhomogeneous terms. A study of the relative influence of the particular closures used for the rapid redistribution terms and for the turbulent diffusion is undertaken, through comparison with measurements, and with a baseline Reynolds-stress model (RSM) using geometric wall normals. It is shown that wall-normal-free rsms can be reformulated as a projection on a tensorial basis that includes the inhomogeneity direction unit vector, suggesting that the theory of the redistribution tensor closure should be revised by taking into account inhomogeneity effects in the tensorial integrity basis used for its representation.