Validation of rotational thromboelastometry during cardiopulmonary bypass : a prospective, observational in-vivo study

Le ROTEM est un test de coagulation réalisable au près du malade qui permet d'objectiver la coagulopathie, de distinguer la contribution des différents éléments du système de coagulation et de cibler les produits procoagulants comme le plasma frais congelé (PFC), les plaquettes, le fibrinogène et les facteurs de coagulation purifiés ou les antifibrinolytiques. 3 des tests disponibles pour le ROTEM sont: EXTEM, INTEM, HEPTEM. Le premier test est stable sous hautes doses d'héparine alors que le deuxième est très sensible à sa présence. Dans le dernier test on rajoute de l'héparinase pour mettre en évidence l'éventuel effet résiduel de l'héparine en le comparant à l'INTEM. Idéalement, le ROTEM devrait être effectué avant la fin du bypass cardiopulmonaire (CEC), donc sous anticoagulation maximale pas héparine, afin de pouvoir administrer des produits pro¬coagulants dans les délais les plus brefs et ainsi limiter au maximum les pertes sanguines. En effet la commande et la préparation de certains produits procoagulants peut prendre plus d'une heure. Le but de cette étude est de valider l'utilisation du ROTEM en présence de hautes concentrations d'héparine. Il s'agit d'une étude observationnelle prospective sur 20 patients opérés électivement de pontages aorto-coronariens sous CEC. Méthode : l'analyse ROTEM a été réalisée avant l'administration d'héparine (TO), 10 minutes après l'administration d'héparine (Tl), à la fin de la CEC (T2) et 10 minutes après la neutralisation de l'anticoagulation avec la protamine (T3). L'état.d'héparinisation a été évalué par l'activité anti-Xa à T1,T2,T3. Résultats : Comparé à TO, la phase de polymérisation de la cascade de coagulation et l'interaction fibrine-plaquettes sont significativement détériorées par rapport à Tl pour les canaux EXTEM et HEPTEM. A T2 l'analyse EXTEM et INTEM sont comparables à celles de EXTEM et HEPTEM à T3. Conclusion: les hautes doses d'héparine utilisées induisent une coagulopathie qui reste stable durant toute la durée de la CEC et qui persiste même après la neutralisation de l'anticoagulation. Les mesures EXTEM et HEPTEM sont donc valides en présence de hautes concentrations d'héparine et peuvent être réalisés pendant la CEC avant l'administration de protamine.

Validation of rotational thromboelastometry during cardiopulmonary bypass: A prospective, observational in-vivo study.

BACKGROUND: Rotational thromboelastometry (ROTEM) is a whole blood point-of-test used to assess the patient's coagulation status. Three of the available ROTEM tests are EXTEM, INTEM and HEPTEM. In the latter, heparinase added to the INTEM reagent inactivates heparin to reveal residual heparin effect. Performing ROTEM analysis during cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) might allow the anaesthesiologist to anticipate the need for blood products. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to validate ROTEM analysis in the presence of very high heparin concentrations during CPB. DESIGN: Prospective, observational trial. SETTING: Single University Hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Twenty patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: ROTEM analysis was performed before heparin administration (T0), 10 min after heparin (T1), at the end of CPB (T2) and 10 min after protamine (T3). The following tests were performed: EXTEM, INTEM, and HEPTEM. Heparin concentrations were measured at T1 and at the end of bypass (T2). RESULTS: At T1, EXTEM differed from baseline for coagulation time: +26.7 s (18.4 to 34.9, P < 0.0001), α: -3° (1.0 to 5.4, P = 0.006) and A10: -4.4 mm (2.3 to 6.5, P = 0.0004). INTEM at T0 was different from HEPTEM at T1 for coagulation time: + 47 s (34.3 to 59.6, P >0.0001), A10: -2.3 mm (0.5 to 4.0, P = 0.01) and α -2° (1.0 to 3.0; P = 0.0007). At T2, all parameters in EXTEM and HEPTEM related to fibrin-platelet interaction deteriorated significantly compared to T1. At T3, EXTEM and INTEM were comparable to EXTEM and HEPTEM at T2. CONCLUSION: HEPTEM and EXTEM measurements are valid in the presence of very high heparin concentrations and can be performed before protamine administration in patients undergoing cardiac surgery with CPB. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01455454.

Development and validation of a paediatric long-bone fracture classification. A prospective multicentre study in 13 European paediatric trauma centres

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to develop a child-specific classification system for long bone fractures and to examine its reliability and validity on the basis of a prospective multicentre study. METHODS: Using the sequentially developed classification system, three samples of between 30 and 185 paediatric limb fractures from a pool of 2308 fractures documented in two multicenter studies were analysed in a blinded fashion by eight orthopaedic surgeons, on a total of 5 occasions. Intra- and interobserver reliability and accuracy were calculated. RESULTS: The reliability improved with successive simplification of the classification. The final version resulted in an overall interobserver agreement of κ = 0.71 with no significant difference between experienced and less experienced raters. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, the evaluation of the newly proposed classification system resulted in a reliable and routinely applicable system, for which training in its proper use may further improve the reliability. It can be recommended as a useful tool for clinical practice and offers the option for developing treatment recommendations and outcome predictions in the future.

Concurrent and predictive validation of a novel robotic surgery simulator: a prospective, randomized study

We evaluated the concurrent and predictive validity of a novel robotic surgery simulator in a prospective, randomized study.

Prospective, multicenter validation of prediction scores for major bleeding in elderly patients with venous thromboembolism

The Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index (OBRI) and the Kuijer, RIETE and Kearon scores are clinical prognostic scores for bleeding in patients receiving oral anticoagulants for venous thromboembolism (VTE). We prospectively compared the performance of these scores in elderly patients with VTE.

Clinical validation of an automated vessel-segmentation software of the extracranial-carotid arteries based on 3D-MRA: A prospective study

OBJECTIVES: To determine the accuracy of automated vessel-segmentation software for vessel-diameter measurements based on three-dimensional contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance angiography (3D-MRA). METHOD: In 10 patients with high-grade carotid stenosis, automated measurements of both carotid arteries were obtained with 3D-MRA by two independent investigators and compared with manual measurements obtained by digital subtraction angiography (DSA) and 2D maximum-intensity projection (2D-MIP) based on MRA and duplex ultrasonography (US). In 42 patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy (CEA), intraoperative measurements (IOP) were compared with postoperative 3D-MRA and US. RESULTS: Mean interoperator variability was 8% for measurements by DSA and 11% by 2D-MIP, but there was no interoperator variability with the automated 3D-MRA analysis. Good correlations were found between DSA (standard of reference), manual 2D-MIP (rP=0.6) and automated 3D-MRA (rP=0.8). Excellent correlations were found between IOP, 3D-MRA (rP=0.93) and US (rP=0.83). CONCLUSION: Automated 3D-MRA-based vessel segmentation and quantification result in accurate measurements of extracerebral-vessel dimensions.

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

AbstractBackground:30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes.Objective:This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx) at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT).Methods:Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC) III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves.Results:The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD), ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD) increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping.Conclusion:We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

A novel tool for the assessment of pain: validation in low back pain.

BACKGROUND: Adequate pain assessment is critical for evaluating the efficacy of analgesic treatment in clinical practice and during the development of new therapies. Yet the currently used scores of global pain intensity fail to reflect the diversity of pain manifestations and the complexity of underlying biological mechanisms. We have developed a tool for a standardized assessment of pain-related symptoms and signs that differentiates pain phenotypes independent of etiology. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using a structured interview (16 questions) and a standardized bedside examination (23 tests), we prospectively assessed symptoms and signs in 130 patients with peripheral neuropathic pain caused by diabetic polyneuropathy, postherpetic neuralgia, or radicular low back pain (LBP), and in 57 patients with non-neuropathic (axial) LBP. A hierarchical cluster analysis revealed distinct association patterns of symptoms and signs (pain subtypes) that characterized six subgroups of patients with neuropathic pain and two subgroups of patients with non-neuropathic pain. Using a classification tree analysis, we identified the most discriminatory assessment items for the identification of pain subtypes. We combined these six interview questions and ten physical tests in a pain assessment tool that we named Standardized Evaluation of Pain (StEP). We validated StEP for the distinction between radicular and axial LBP in an independent group of 137 patients. StEP identified patients with radicular pain with high sensitivity (92%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 83%-97%) and specificity (97%; 95% CI 89%-100%). The diagnostic accuracy of StEP exceeded that of a dedicated screening tool for neuropathic pain and spinal magnetic resonance imaging. In addition, we were able to reproduce subtypes of radicular and axial LBP, underscoring the utility of StEP for discerning distinct constellations of symptoms and signs. CONCLUSIONS: We present a novel method of identifying pain subtypes that we believe reflect underlying pain mechanisms. We demonstrate that this new approach to pain assessment helps separate radicular from axial back pain. Beyond diagnostic utility, a standardized differentiation of pain subtypes that is independent of disease etiology may offer a unique opportunity to improve targeted analgesic treatment.

Validation of two echocardiographic indexes to improve the diagnosis of complex coarctations

Rapport de synthèse: Enjeux et contexte de recherche : la coarctation de l'aorte, rétrécissement de l'aorte thoracique descendante, est une des malformations cardiaques congénitales les plus fréquentes. Son diagnostic reste cependant difficile surtout lorsqu'elle est associée à la présence d'un canal artériel ou à une malformation cardiaque plus complexe. Dans ces contextes, les signes échographiques classiques qui posent habituellement le diagnostic (visualisation d'un rétrécissement juxtaductal et accélération au Doppler au niveau de l'isthme aortique) peuvent faire défaut ou être difficile à imager. La validation d'index basé sur des mesures anatomiques faciles à acquérir par échographie cardiaque, indépendantes de l'âge, de la situation hémodynamique et des malformations cardiaques associées représente une aide significative dans le diagnostic de la coarctation de l'aorte. Nous avons donc voulu valider par une étude rétrospective la fiabilité de deux index dans cette indication : l'index des artères carotido-sous-clavière (index CSA; rapport du diamètre de l'arc aortique transverse distal sur la distance entre les artères carotide et sous-clavière gauches) et l'index de l'aorte isthmique-descendante (index I/D; rapport des diamètres de l'aorte isthmique sur celui de l'aorte descendante). Notre article : nous avons rétrospectivement calculé la valeur des deux index (CSA et I/D) chez un groupe de 68 enfants avec coarctation et un groupe 24 cas contrôles apparenté pour l'âge et le sexe. Les enfants avec coarctation ont un index CSA et I/D significativement plus bas que le groupe contrôle (Index CSA : 0.84 ± 0.39 vs. 2.65 ± 0.82, p<0.0001 - Index I/D : 0.58 ± 0.18 vs. 0.98 ± 0.19, p<0.0001). Pour les deux index, ni la présence d'une autre malformation cardiaque, ni l'âge n'ont un impact sur la différence significative entre les deux groupes. Conclusions: notre recherche à permis de valider qu'un index CSA de moins de 1,5 est fortement suggestif d'une coarctation, indépendamment de l'âge du patient et de la présence d'une autre malformation cardiaque. L'index I/D (valeur limite 0,64) est moins spécifique que l'index CSA. L'association des deux index augmente la sensibilité et permet rétrospectivement le diagnostic de tous les cas de coarctation seulement sur la base d'une échographie cardiaque standard faite au lit du patient. Perspectives : cette étude rétrospective mérite d'être vérifiée par une étude prospective afin de confirmer la contribution de ces index à la prise en charge des patients suspects d'une coarctation de l'aorte. Cependant, la situation dans laquelle ces index pourraient avoir le plus grand impact reste encore à explorer. En effet, si le diagnostic postnatal de la coarctation est parfois difficile, son diagnostic prénatal l'est nettement plus. La présence obligatoire du canal artériel et l'existence d'une hypoplasie isthmique physiologique chez le foetus obligent le cardiologue foetale à observer des signes indirects, peu sensibles, d'une possible coarctation (prépondérance des cavités droites). La validation de l'index CSA et/ou de l'index I/D chez le foetus constituerait donc une avancée majeure dans le diagnostic prénatal de la coarctation de l'aorte.

Validation of the instability shoulder index score in a multicenter reliability study in 114 consecutive cases.

BACKGROUND: Anterior shoulder stabilization surgery with the arthroscopic Bankart procedure can have a high recurrence rate in certain patients. Identifying these patients to modify outcomes has become a focal point of research. PURPOSE: The Instability Shoulder Index Score (ISIS) was developed to predict the success of arthroscopic Bankart repair. Scores range from 0 to 10, with higher scores predicting a higher risk of recurrence after stabilization. The interobserver reliability of the score is not known. STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study (diagnosis); Level of evidence, 2. METHODS: This is a prospective multicenter (North America and Europe) study of patients suffering from shoulder instability and waiting for stabilization surgery. Five pairs of independent evaluators were asked to score patient instability severity with the ISIS. Patients also completed functional scores (Western Ontario Shoulder Instability Index [WOSI], Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand-short version [QuickDASH], and Walch-Duplay test). Data on age, sex, number of dislocations, and type of surgery were collected. The test-retest method and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC: >0.75 = good, >0.85 = very good, and >0.9 = excellent) were used for analysis. RESULTS: A total of 114 patients with anterior shoulder instability were included, of whom 89 (78%) were men. The mean age was 28 years. The ISIS was very reliable, with an ICC of 0.933. The mean number of dislocations per patient was higher in patients who had an ISIS of ≥6 (25 vs 14; P = .05). Patients who underwent more complex arthroscopic procedures such as Hill-Sachs remplissage or open Latarjet had higher preoperative ISIS outcomes, with a mean score of 4.8 versus 3.4, respectively (P = .002). There was no correlation between the ISIS and the quality-of-life questionnaires, with Pearson correlations all >0.05 (WOSI = 0.39; QuickDASH = 0.97; Walch-Duplay = 0.08). CONCLUSION: Our results show that the ISIS is reliable when used in a multicenter study with anterior traumatic instability populations. There was no correlation between the ISIS and the quality-of-life questionnaires, but surgical decisions reflected its increased use.

Validation of a new tool to assess health-related quality of life in psoriasis: the PSO-LIFE questionnaire.

BACKGROUND Several questionnaires have been used to measure health related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients with psoriasis, few have been adapted for use in Spain; none of them was developed specifically for the Spanish population. The purpose of the study was to validate and assess the sensitivity to change of a new questionnaire to measure HRQOL in patients with psoriasis (PSO-LIFE). METHODS Observational, prospective, multicenter study performed in centers around Spain. Patients with active or inactive psoriasis completed the PSO-LIFE together with other Dermatology Quality of Life Index (DLQI) and Psoriasis Disability Index (PDI). A control group of patients with urticaria or atopic dermatitis was also included. Internal consistency and test-retest reliability of the PSO-LIFE were assessed by calculating Cronbach's alpha and Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC). Validity was assessed by examining factorial structure, the capacity to discriminate between groups, and correlations with other measures. Sensitivity to change was measured using effect sizes. RESULTS The final sample included for analysis consisted of 304 patients and 56 controls. Mean (SD) age of psoriasis patients was 45.3 (14.5) years compared to 38.8 (14) years for controls (p < 0.01). Cronbach's alpha for the PSO-LIFE was 0.95 and test-retest reliability using the ICC was 0.98. Factor analysis showed the questionnaire to be unidimensional. Mean (SD) PSO-LIFE scores differed between patients with psoriasis and controls (64.9 [22.5] vs 69.4 [17.3]; p < 0.05), between those with active and inactive disease (57.4 [20.4] vs 76.4 [20.6]; p < 0.01), and between those with visible and non-visible lesions (63.0 [21.9] vs. 74.8 [23.9]; p < 0.01). The correlation between PSO-LIFE and PASI scores was moderate (r = -0.43) while correlations with DLQI and PDI dimensions ranged from moderate to high (between 0.4 and 0.8). Effect size on the PSO-LIFE in patients reporting 'much improved' health status at study completion was 1.01 (large effect size). CONCLUSIONS The present results provide substantial support for the reliability, validity, and responsiveness of the PSO-LIFE questionnaire in the population for which it was designed.

Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women.

BACKGROUND Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.

Prospective analysis of KRAS, BRAF, and PIK3CA mutations and EGFR copy number in patients (pts) with locally advanced rectal cancer: A translational substudy of a clinical trial (SAKK 41/07) evaluating the effect of neoadjuvant chemoradiation (CRT) with or without panitumumab

Background: Prognostic and predictive markers are of great importance for future study designs and essential for the interpretation of clinical trials incorporating an EGFR-inhibitor. The current study prospectively assessed and validated KRAS, BRAF and PIK3CA mutations in rectal cancer patients screened for the trial SAKK41/07 of concomitant preoperative radio-chemotherapy with or without panitumumab.Methods: Macrodissection was performed on pretreatment formalin fixed paraffin embedded biopsy tissue sections to arrive at a minimum of 50% of tumor cells. DNA was extracted with the Maxwell 16 FFPE Tissue LEV DNA purification kit. After PCR amplification, mutations were identified by pyrosequencing. We prospectively analysed pretreatment biopsy material from 149 rectal cancer pts biopsies for KRAS (exon 2 codon 12 [2-12] and 13 [2-13], exon 3 codon 59 [3-59]) and 61 [3-61], exon 4 codon 117 [4-117] and 146 [4-146]). Sixty-eight pts (KRASwt exon 2, 3 only) were further analysed for BRAF (exon 15 codon 600) and PIK3CA (exon 9 codon 542, 545 and 546, exon 20 codon 1043 [20-1043] and 1047 [20-1047]) mutations, and EGFR copy number by qPCR. For the calculation of the EGFR copy number, we used KRAS copy number as internal reference standard. The calculation was done on the basis of the two standard curves relative quantification method.Results: In 149 screened pts with rectal cancer, the prevalence of KRAS mutations was 36%. Among the 68 pts enrolled in SAKK 41/07 based on initially presumed KRASwt status (exon 2/codons 12+13), 18 pts (26%) had a total of 23 mutations in the RAS/PIK3CA-pathways upon validation analysis. Twelve pts had a KRAS mutation, 7 pts had a PIK3CA mutation, 3 pts had a NRAS mutation, 1 patient a BRAF mutation. Surprisingly, five of these pts had double- mutations, including 4 pts with KRAS plus PIK3CA mutations, and 1 pt with NRAS plus PIK3CA mutations. The median normalized EGFR copy number was 1. Neither mutations of KRAS, BRAF, and PIK3CA, nor EGFR copy number were statistically associated with the primary study endpoint pCR (pathological complete regression).Conclusions: The prevalence of KRAS mutations in rectal and in colon cancer appears to be similar. BRAF mutations are rare; PIK3CA mutations are more common (10%). EGFR copy number is not increased in rectal cancer. A considerable number or KRAS exon 2 wt tumors harbored KRAS exon 3+4 mutations. Further study is needed to determine if KRAS testing should include exons 2-4.

Development and validation of a clinical decision rule for the diagnosis of influenza.

INTRODUCTION: A clinical decision rule to improve the accuracy of a diagnosis of influenza could help clinicians avoid unnecessary use of diagnostic tests and treatments. Our objective was to develop and validate a simple clinical decision rule for diagnosis of influenza. METHODS: We combined data from 2 studies of influenza diagnosis in adult outpatients with suspected influenza: one set in California and one in Switzerland. Patients in both studies underwent a structured history and physical examination and had a reference standard test for influenza (polymerase chain reaction or culture). We randomly divided the dataset into derivation and validation groups and then evaluated simple heuristics and decision rules from previous studies and 3 rules based on our own multivariate analysis. Cutpoints for stratification of risk groups in each model were determined using the derivation group before evaluating them in the validation group. For each decision rule, the positive predictive value and likelihood ratio for influenza in low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups, and the percentage of patients allocated to each risk group, were reported. RESULTS: The simple heuristics (fever and cough; fever, cough, and acute onset) were helpful when positive but not when negative. The most useful and accurate clinical rule assigned 2 points for fever plus cough, 2 points for myalgias, and 1 point each for duration <48 hours and chills or sweats. The risk of influenza was 8% for 0 to 2 points, 30% for 3 points, and 59% for 4 to 6 points; the rule performed similarly in derivation and validation groups. Approximately two-thirds of patients fell into the low- or high-risk group and would not require further diagnostic testing. CONCLUSION: A simple, valid clinical rule can be used to guide point-of-care testing and empiric therapy for patients with suspected influenza.