A quiz-based game for addressing growing population issues:linking learning mechanics to the GROWTH serious game

This paper discusses the integration of quiz mechanism into digital game-based learning platform addressing environmental and social issues caused by population growth. 50 participants' learning outcomes were compared before and after the session. Semi-structured interview was used to gather participants' viewpoints regarding of issues presented in the game. Phenomenography was used as a methodology for data collection and analysis. Preliminary outcomes have shown that the current game implementation and quiz mechanism can be used to: (1) promote learning and awareness on environmental and social issues and (2) sustain players' attention and engagements.

Canine population dynamics: the potential effect of sterilization campaigns

Objective. To analyze, through mathematical modeling, the potential ability of sterilization campaigns to reduce the population density of pet dogs. Methods. Mathematical models were constructed to simulate the canine population dynamics and project the results of control strategies based on several sterilization rates. Results. Even at high sterilization rates (for example, 0.80 year(-1)), it would take approximately 5 years to reduce density by 20%. Even so, other sources of population growth, such as the importing of dogs from other geographic areas, could outweigh the effects of a sterilization program. Conclusions. A program`s effectiveness is contingent upon not only on the sterilization rate, but also the rate of population growth. Sterilization campaigns may potentially reduce population density, but this reduction may not be immediately evident.

Habitat complexity, spatial interference, and "minimum risk distribution": a framework for population stability

In the past century, the debate over whether or not density-dependent factors regulate populations has generally focused on changes in mean population density, ignoring the spatial variance around the mean as unimportant noise. In an attempt to provide a different framework for understanding population dynamics based on individual fitness, this paper discusses the crucial role of spatial variability itself on the stability of insect populations. The advantages of this method are the following: (1) it is founded on evolutionary principles rather than post hoc assumptions; (2) it erects hypotheses that can be tested; and (3) it links disparate ecological schools, including spatial dynamics, behavioral ecology, preference-performance, and plant apparency into an overall framework. At the core of this framework, habitat complexity governs insect spatial variance. which in turn determines population stability. First, the minimum risk distribution (MRD) is defined as the spatial distribution of individuals that results in the minimum number of premature deaths in a population given the distribution of mortality risk in the habitat (and, therefore, leading to maximized population growth). The greater the divergence of actual spatial patterns of individuals from the MRD, the greater the reduction of population growth and size from high, unstable levels. Then, based on extensive data from 29 populations of the processionary caterpillar, Ochrogaster lunifer, four steps are used to test the effect of habitat interference on population growth rates. (1) The costs (increasing the risk of scramble competition) and benefits (decreasing the risk of inverse density-dependent predation) of egg and larval aggregation are quantified. (2) These costs and benefits, along with the distribution of resources, are used to construct the MRD for each habitat. (3) The MRD is used as a benchmark against which the actual spatial pattern of individuals is compared. The degree of divergence of the actual spatial pattern from the MRD is quantified for each of the 29 habitats. (4) Finally, indices of habitat complexity are used to provide highly accurate predictions of spatial divergence from the MRD, showing that habitat interference reduces population growth rates from high, unstable levels. The reason for the divergence appears to be that high levels of background vegetation (vegetation other than host plants) interfere with female host-searching behavior. This leads to a spatial distribution of egg batches with high mortality risk, and therefore lower population growth. Knowledge of the MRD in other species should be a highly effective means of predicting trends in population dynamics. Species with high divergence between their actual spatial distribution and their MRD may display relatively stable dynamics at low population levels. In contrast, species with low divergence should experience high levels of intragenerational population growth leading to frequent habitat-wide outbreaks and unstable dynamics in the long term. Six hypotheses, erected under the framework of spatial interference, are discussed, and future tests are suggested.

The population of Brazil

In 1970 the population of Brazil with 94,508,554 inhabitants was extreme youth, since 42.67% was composed of children under 14 years old. In that year the proportion of female was 50.2%. The population density increased from 1.17 inhabitants /km² in 1872 to 11.18 in 1970, and in this last year the range was 1.03 in the North region and 43.90 in the South-East region. The urban population increased from 31.24% in 1940 to 55.98% in 1970 and for the first time the rural population was smaller than the urban population. In 1950 concerning with marital status 39% of the population 15 years old and over was single and 54% married. In 1970 this rate was respectively 35.4% and 56.6%. The population economically inactive increased from 49.17% in 1940 to 52.24% in 1970. The literacy ratio increased from 43% in 1940, to 48% in 1950 and 68.04% in 1970. The crude birth rate was 43/1000 live births in 1950 and fell to 37.7/1000 in 1970. The fertility rate decreased from 179.3/1000 women (15-49 years old} to 156.7/1000 in 1960/70. The crude death rate decreased from 20.60/1000 inhabitants in 1940/50 to 9.4/1000 in 1960/70. The infant mortality rate still remains high: 171/1000 live births in 1940/50 and 170/1000 in 1971. Concerning with the size of the cities, 8 in 1940 had 100,000 or more inhabitants and in 1970 this number increased to 94 cities. The population growth increased from 2.38% in 1940/50, to 2.99% in 1950/60 and 2.83% in 1960./70. Brazil is the first country in population size in Latin America and the eighth in the world. Concerning his area, Brazil is the fifth country in size.

Changes in population and land use over time in the Ecuadorian Amazon

This paper draws upon a detailed longitudinal survey of households living on agricultural plots in the northern three provinces of the Ecuadorian Amazon, the principal region of colonization by migrants in Ecuador since the 1970s. Following the discovery of petroleum in 1967 near what has subsequently come to be the provincial capital and largest Amazonian city of Lago Agrio, oil companies built roads to lay pipelines to extract and pump oil across the Andes for export. As a result, for the past 30 years over half of both Ecuador's export earnings and government revenues have come from petroleum extracted from this region. But the roads also facilitated massive spontaneous in-migration of families from origin areas in the Ecuadorian Sierra, characterized by minifundia and rural poverty. This paper is about those migrants and their effects on the Amazonian landscape. We discuss the data collection methodology and summarize key results on settler characteristics and changes in population, land use, land ownership, technology, labor allocation, and living conditions, as well as the relationships between changes in population and changes in land use over time. The population in the study region has been growing rapidly due to both natural population growth (high fertility) and in-migration. This has led to a dramatic process of subdivision and fragmentation of plots in the 1990's, which contrasts with the consolidation of plots that has occurred in most of the mature frontier areas of the Brazilian Amazon. This fragmentation has led to important changes in land tenure and land use, deforestation, cattle raising, labor allocation, and settler welfare.

Study of a population of Biomphalaria tenagophila (Orbigny, 1835) and of schistosomiasis transmission in "Alto da Boa Vista", Rio de Janeiro

The present study was performed using data from a Biomphalaria tenagophila population located in a water cress garden in the Alto da Boa Vista region representing an isolated focal point of schistosomiasis in the city of Rio de Janeiro. The density and age structure of this B. tenagophila population and its rate of intection by Schistosoma mansoni were studied for a period of 15 months. The snail population showed seasonal variation in density, with a decrease in number of individual at the begining of the rainy season. At the end of this season, the population consisted mainly of adults (92.8% in May 1985 and 82.8% in April 1986). The population growth curve was logistic and of sigmoidal configuration. Shiscotoma mansoni cercariae were eliminated over a short period of time (March, April and May 1986). The release of cercariae of S. mansoni and of birds seems to depend on environmental temperature, which during certain months would show a daily variation of up to 13ºC, with the lower thermal limit approaching the limit value for sporocyte development.

Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities: Location, Increasing Returns or Random Growth?

This article analyzes empirically the main existing theories on income and population city growth: increasing returns to scale, locational fundamentals and random growth. To do this we implement a threshold nonlinearity test that extends standard linear growth regression models to a dataset on urban, climatological and macroeconomic variables on 1,175 U.S. cities. Our analysis reveals the existence of increasing returns when per-capita income levels are beyond $19; 264. Despite this, income growth is mostly explained by social and locational fundamentals. Population growth also exhibits two distinct equilibria determined by a threshold value of 116,300 inhabitants beyond which city population grows at a higher rate. Income and population growth do not go hand in hand, implying an optimal level of population beyond which income growth stagnates or deteriorates

Population dynamics and feeding behavior of Triatoma brasiliensis and Triatoma pseudomaculata, main vectors of Chagas disease in Northeastern Brazil

Biological parameters of Triatoma brasiliensis and T. pseudomaculata that could influence the epidemiological importance of these insects as vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi were compared. The parameters studied were incubation period, interval between hatching or moulting and first feeding, number of blood meals, development time, mortality, net reproductive rate, instantaneous daily reproductive rate, time-lapse before starting feeding, duration of feeding, blood ingestion capacity, occurrence of defecation and blood ingestion velocity. Most aspects of feeding were similar for the two species, although T. pseudomaculata had a longer life cycle than T. brasiliensis producing one and two generations per year, respectively. The two species had similar instantaneous daily rates of population growth.

Coevolution of adaptive technology, maladaptive culture and population size in a producer-scrounger game.

Technology (i.e. tools, methods of cultivation and domestication, systems of construction and appropriation, machines) has increased the vital rates of humans, and is one of the defining features of the transition from Malthusian ecological stagnation to a potentially perpetual rising population growth. Maladaptations, on the other hand, encompass behaviours, customs and practices that decrease the vital rates of individuals. Technology and maladaptations are part of the total stock of culture carried by the individuals in a population. Here, we develop a quantitative model for the coevolution of cumulative adaptive technology and maladaptive culture in a 'producer-scrounger' game, which can also usefully be interpreted as an 'individual-social' learner interaction. Producers (individual learners) are assumed to invent new adaptations and maladaptations by trial-and-error learning, insight or deduction, and they pay the cost of innovation. Scroungers (social learners) are assumed to copy or imitate (cultural transmission) both the adaptations and maladaptations generated by producers. We show that the coevolutionary dynamics of producers and scroungers in the presence of cultural transmission can have a variety of effects on population carrying capacity. From stable polymorphism, where scroungers bring an advantage to the population (increase in carrying capacity), to periodic cycling, where scroungers decrease carrying capacity, we find that selection-driven cultural innovation and transmission may send a population on the path of indefinite growth or to extinction.

A flow cytometry based oligotrophic pollutant exposure test to detect bacterial growth inhibition and cell injury.

Toxicity of chemical pollutants in aquatic environments is often addressed by assays that inquire reproductive inhibition of test microorganisms, such as algae or bacteria. Those tests, however, assess growth of populations as a whole via macroscopic methods such as culture turbidity or colony-forming units. Here we use flow cytometry to interrogate the fate of individual cells in low-density populations of the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens SV3 exposed or not under oligotrophic conditions to a number of common pollutants, some of which derive from oil contamination. Cells were stained at regular time intervals during the exposure assay with fluorescent dyes that detect membrane injury (i.e., live-dead assay). Reduction of population growth rates was observed upon toxicant insult and depended on the type of toxicant. Modeling and cell staining indicate that population growth rate decrease is a combined effect of an increased number of injured cells that may or may not multiply, and live cells dividing at normal growth rates. The oligotrophic assay concept presented here could be a useful complement for existing biomarker assays in compliance with new regulations on chemical effect studies or, more specifically, for judging recovery after exposure to fluctuating toxicant conditions.

Growing at the production frontier. European aggregate growth, 1870-1914

The view of a 1870-1913 expanding European economy providing increasing welfare to everybody has been challenged by many, then and now. We focus on the amazing growth that was experienced, its diffusion and its sources, in the context of the permanent competition among European nation states. During 1870-193 the globalized European economy reached a silver age . GDP growth was quite rapid (2.15% per annum) and diffused all over Europe. Even discounting the high rates of population growth (1.06%), per capita growth was left at a respectable 1.08%. Income per capita was rising in every country, and the rates of improvement were quite similar. This was a major achievement after two generations of highly localized growth, both geographically and socially. Growth was based on the increased use of labour and capital, but a good part of growth (73 per cent for the weighted average of the best documented European countries) came out of total factor productivity efficiency gains resulting from not well specified ultimate sources of growth. This proportion suggests that the European economy was growing at full capacity at its production frontier. It would have been very difficult to improve its performance. Within Europe, convergence was limited, and it only was in motion after 1900. What happened was more the end of the era of big divergence rather than an era of convergence.

Population consequences of environmental sex reversal.

When sex determination in a species is predominantly genetic but environmentally reversible, exposure to (anthropogenic) changes in the environment can lead to shifts in a population's sex ratio. Such scenarios may be common in many fishes and amphibians, yet their ramifications remain largely unexplored. We used a simple model to study the (short-term) population consequences of environmental sex reversal (ESR). We examined the effects on sex ratios, sex chromosome frequencies, and population growth and persistence after exposure to environmental forces with feminizing or masculinizing tendencies. When environmental feminization was strong, X chromosomes were driven to extinction. Analogously, extinction of normally male-linked genetic factors (e.g., Y chromosomes) was caused by continuous environmental masculinization. Although moderate feminization was beneficial for population growth in the absence of large viability effects, our results suggest that the consequences of ESR are generally negative in terms of population size and the persistence of sex chromosomes. Extreme sex ratios resulting from high rates of ESR also reduced effective population sizes considerably. This may limit any evolutionary response to the deleterious effects of ESR. Our findings suggest that ESR changes population growth and sex ratios in some counter-intuitive ways and can change the predominant factor in sex determination from genetic to fully environmental, often within only a few tens of generations. Populations that lose genetic sex determination may quickly go extinct if the environmental forces that cause sex reversal cease.

Environmental sex reversal, Trojan sex genes, and sex ratio adjustment: conditions and population consequences.

Abstract The great diversity of sex determination mechanisms in animals and plants ranges from genetic sex determination (GSD, e.g. mammals, birds, and most dioecious plants) to environmental sex determination (ESD, e.g. many reptiles) and includes a mixture of both, for example when an individual's genetically determined sex is environmentally reversed during ontogeny (ESR, environmental sex reversal, e.g. many fish and amphibia). ESD and ESR can lead to widely varying and unstable population sex ratios. Populations exposed to conditions such as endocrine-active substances or temperature shifts may decline over time due to skewed sex ratios, a scenario that may become increasingly relevant with greater anthropogenic interference on watercourses. Continuous exposure of populations to factors causing ESR could lead to the extinction of genetic sex factors and may render a population dependent on the environmental factors that induce the sex change. However, ESR also presents opportunities for population management, especially if the Y or W chromosome is not, or not severely, degenerated. This seems to be the case in many amphibians and fish. Population growth or decline in such species can potentially be controlled through the introduction of so-called Trojan sex genes carriers, individuals that possess sex chromosomes or genes opposite from what their phenotype predicts. Here, we review the conditions for ESR, its prevalence in natural populations, the resulting physiological and reproductive consequences, and how these may become instrumental for population management.

Endogenous growth with capital in R&D production functions

[eng] In this paper we claim that capital is as important in the production of ideas as in the production of final goods. Hence, we introduce capital in the production of knowledge and discuss the associated problems arising from the public good nature of knowledge. We show that although population growth can affect economic growth, it is not necessary for growth to arise. We derive both the social planner and the decentralized economy growth rates and show the optimal subsidy that decentralizes it. We also show numerically that the effects of population growth on the market growth rate, the optimal growth rate and the optimal subsidy are small. Besides, we find that physical capital is more important for the production of knowledge than for the production of goods.