Urban informatics

The increasing ubiquity of digital technology, internet ser-vices and social media in our everyday lives allows for a seamless transitioning between the visible and the invisible infrastructure of cities: road systems, building complexes, information and communication technology, and people networks create a buzzing environment that is alive and exciting. Driven by curiosity, initiative and interdiscipli-nary exchange, the Urban Informatics Research Lab at Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Brisbane, Australia, is an emerging cluster of people interested in research and development at the intersection of people, place and technology with a focus on cities, locative media and mobile technology. This paper seeks to define, for the first time, what we mean by ‘urban informatics’ and outline its significance as a field of study today. It describes the relevant background and trends in each of the areas of peo-ple, place and technology, and highlights the relevance of urban informatics to the concerns and evolving challenges of CSCW. We then position our work in academia juxta-posed with related research concentrations and labels, fol-lowed by a discussion of disciplinary influences. The paper concludes with an exposé of the three current research themes of the lab around augmented urban spaces, urban narratives, and environmental sustainability in order to illustrate specific cases and methods, and to draw out distinctions that our affiliation with the Creative Industries Faculty affords.

Wellness education : an integrated theoretical framework for fostering transformative learning

Optimum Wellness involves the development, refinement and practice of lifestyle choices which resonate with personally meaningful frames of reference. Personal transformations are the means by which our frames of reference are refined across the lifespan. It is through critical reflection, supportive relationships and meaning making of our experiences that we construct and reconstruct our life paths. When individuals are able to be what they are destined to be or reach their higher purpose, then they are able to contribute to the world in positive and meaningful ways. Transformative education facilitates the changes in perspective that enable one to contemplate and travel a path in life that leads to self-actualisation. This thesis argues for an integrated theoretical framework for optimum Wellness Education. It establishes a learner centred approach to Wellness education in the form of an integrated instructional design framework derived from both Wellness and Transformative education constructs. Students’ approaches to learning and their study strategies in a Wellness education context serve to highlight convergences in the manner in which students can experience perspective transformation. As they learn to critically reflect, pursue relationships and adapt their frames of reference to sustain their pursuit of both learning and Wellness goals, strengthening the nexus between instrumental and transformative learning is a strategically important goal for educators. The aim of this exploratory research study was to examine those facets that serve to optimise the learning experiences of students in a Wellness course. This was accomplished through three research issues: 1) What are the relationships between Wellness, approaches to learning and academic success? 2) How are students approaching learning in an undergraduate Wellness subject? Why are students approaching their learning in the ways they do? 3) What sorts of transformations are students experiencing in their Wellness? How can transformative education be formulated in the context of an undergraduate Wellness subject? Subsequent to a thorough review of the literature pertaining to Wellness education, a mixed method embedded case study design was formulated to explore the research issues. This thesis examines the interrelationships between student, content and context in a one semester university undergraduate unit (a coherent set of learning activities which is assigned a unit code and a credit point value). The experiences of a cohort of 285 undergraduate students in a Wellness course formed the unit of study and seven individual students from a total of sixteen volunteers whose profiles could be constructed from complete data sets were selected for analysis as embedded cases. The introductory level course required participants to engage in a personal project involving a behaviour modification plan for a self-selected, single dimension of Wellness. Students were given access to the Standard Edition Testwell Survey to assess and report their Wellness as a part of their personal projects. To identify relationships among the constructs of Self-Regulated Learning (SRL), Wellness and Student Approaches to Learning (SAL) a blend of quantitative and qualitative methods to collect and analyse data was formulated. Surveys were the primary instruments for acquiring quantitative data. Sources included the Wellness data from Testwell surveys, SAL data from R-SPQ surveys, SRL data from MSLQ surveys and student self-evaluation data from an end of semester survey. Students’ final grades and GPA scores were used as indicators of academic performance. The sources of qualitative data included subject documentation, structured interview transcripts and open-ended responses to survey items. Subsequent to a pilot study in which survey reliability and validity were tested in context, amendments to processes for and instruments of data collection were made. Students who adopted meaning oriented (deep/achieving) approaches tended to assess their Wellness at a higher level, seek effective learning strategies and perform better in formal study. Posttest data in the main study revealed that there were significant positive statistical relationships between academic performance and total wellness scores (rs=.297, n=205, p<.01). Deep (rs=.343, n=137, p<.01) and achieving (rs=.286, n=123, p<.01) approaches to learning also significantly correlated with Wellness whilst surface approaches had negative correlations that were not significant. SRL strategies including metacognitive selfregulation, effort, help-seeking and critical thinking were increasingly correlated with Wellness. Qualitative findings suggest that while all students adopt similar patterns of day to day activities for example attending classes, taking notes, working on assignments the level of care with which these activities is undertaken varies considerably. The dominant motivational trigger for students in this cohort was the personal relevance and associated benefits of the material being learned and practiced. Students were inclined to set goals that had a positive impact on affect and used “sense of happiness” to evaluate their achievement status. Students who had a higher drive to succeed and/or understand tended to have or seek a wider range of strategies. Their goal orientations were generally learning rather than performance based and barriers presented a challenge which could be overcome as opposed to a blockage which prevented progress. Findings from an empirical analysis of the Testwell data suggest that a single third order Wellness construct exists. A revision of the instrument is necessary in order to juxtapose it with the chosen six dimensional Wellness model that forms the foundation construct in the course. Further, redevelopment should be sensitive to the Australian context and culture including choice of language, examples and scenarios used in item construction. This study concludes with an heuristic for use in Wellness education. Guided by principles of Transformative education theory and behaviour change theory, and informed by this representative case study the “CARING” heuristic is proposed as an instructional design tool for Wellness educators seeking to foster transformative learning. Based upon this study, recommendations were made for university educators to provide authentic and personal experiences in Wellness curricula. Emphasis must focus on involving students and teachers in a partnership for implementing Wellness programs both in the curriculum and co-curricularly. The implications of this research for practice are predicated on the willingness of academics to embrace transformative learning at a personal level and a professional one. To explore students’ profiles in detail is not practical however teaching students how to guide us in supporting them through the “pain” of learning is a skill which would benefit them and optimise the learning and teaching process. At a theoretical level, this research contributes to an ecological theory of Wellness education as transformational change. By signposting the wider contexts in which learning takes place, it seeks to encourage changing paradigms to ones which harness the energy of each successive contextual layer in which students live. Future research which amplifies the qualities of individuals and groups who are “Well” and seeks the refinement and development of instruments to measure Wellness constructs would be desirable for both theoretical and applied knowledge bases. Mixed method Wellness research derived and conducted by teams that incorporate expertise from multiple disciplines such as psychology, anthropology, education, and medicine would enable creative and multi-perspective programs of investigation to be designed and implemented. Congruences and inconsistencies in health promotion and education would provide valuable material for strengthening the nexus between transformational learning and behaviour change theories. Future development of and research on the effectiveness of the CARING heuristic would be valuable in advancing the understanding of pedagogies which advance rather than impede learning as a transformative process. Exploring pedagogical models that marry with transformative education may render solutions to the vexing challenge of teaching and learning in diverse contexts.

Embedded creative workers and creative work in education

This article is concerned with the many connections between creative work and workers, and education work and industries. Employment in the education sector has long been recognised as a significant element in creative workers’portfolio careers. Much has been written, for exam- ple, about the positive contribution of ‘artists in schools’ initiatives. Australian census analyses reveal that education is the most common industry sector into which creative workers are ‘embedded’, outside of the core creative industries. However, beyond case studies and some survey research into arts instruction and instructors, we know remarkably little about in which education roles and sectors creative workers are embedded, and the types of value that they add in those roles and sectors. This article reviews the extant literature on creative work and workers in education, and presents the findings of a survey of 916 graduates from creative undergraduate degrees in Australia. The findings suggest that education work is very common among creative graduates indeed, while there are a range of motivating factors for education work among creative graduates, on average they are satisfied with their careers, and that creative graduates add significant creative-cultural and creative-generic value add through their work.

The acceptability, usability and short-term outcomes of Get Real: A web-based program for psychotic-like experiences (PLEs)

Background Psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) are subclinical delusional ideas and perceptual disturbances that have been associated with a range of adverse mental health outcomes. This study reports a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the acceptability, usability and short term outcomes of Get Real, a web program for PLEs in young people. Methods Participants were twelve respondents to an online survey, who reported at least one PLE in the previous 3 months, and were currently distressed. Ratings of the program were collected after participants trialled it for a month. Individual semi-structured interviews then elicited qualitative feedback, which was analyzed using Consensual Qualitative Research (CQR) methodology. PLEs and distress were reassessed at 3 months post-baseline. Results User ratings supported the program's acceptability, usability and perceived utility. Significant reductions in the number, frequency and severity of PLE-related distress were found at 3 months follow-up. The CQR analysis identified four qualitative domains: initial and current understandings of PLEs, responses to the program, and context of its use. Initial understanding involved emotional reactions, avoidance or minimization, limited coping skills and non-psychotic attributions. After using the program, participants saw PLEs as normal and common, had greater self-awareness and understanding of stress, and reported increased capacity to cope and accept experiences. Positive responses to the program focused on its normalization of PLEs, usefulness of its strategies, self-monitoring of mood, and information putting PLEs into perspective. Some respondents wanted more specific and individualized information, thought the program would be more useful for other audiences, or doubted its effectiveness. The program was mostly used in low-stress situations. Conclusions The current study provided initial support for the acceptability, utility and positive short-term outcomes of Get Real. The program now requires efficacy testing in randomized controlled trials.

Subtypes of psychotic-like experiences are differentially associated with suicidal ideation, plans and attempts in young adults

Psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) have been associated with increased risk of suicidality, but it is unclear whether the level of risk varies with different types of PLE. A cross-sectional online survey was completed by 1610 university students. Respondents completed the Community Assessment of Psychic Experiences-15 (CAPE-P15) assessing PLEs on three subscales: Perceptual Abnormalities (PA), Persecutory Ideation (PI) and Bizarre Experiences (BE). Lifetime suicidal ideation, plans and attempts, cannabis, ecstasy and methamphetamine use and family history of mental disorder were also assessed. Multinomal logistic regression was used to examine unique determinants of lifetime suicidality, defined as any history of (i) suicidal ideation or plans and (ii) any attempt, relative to no lifetime history of suicidality. A lifetime history of PA and PI provided significant unique contributions to the prediction of suicide risk, after control for other significant predictors. BE were not associated with any suicide variable demonstrating the variation in risk of suicidality with different types of PLEs. Perceptual abnormalities and persecutory ideation as measured by the CAPE-P15 are the PLEs associated with a higher risk of lifetime suicidality.

Australia and the Scottish independence referendum

This essay examines how, given the close historical and cul-tural ties which exist between Australia and the United Kingdom (including Scotland), the Scottish independence referendum was reported, analysed and made sense of in the Australian media. The analysis is based on mainstream news coverage (online and print media) produced in Australia and accessed from the internet between January 2012 and the end of September 2014 (two weeks after the referendum on September 18). A total of 95 items were included in the sample, which does not include broadcast news coverage or specialist current affairs periodicals. The online sites of broadcasters such as the ABC and SBS were included in the sam-ple. The great majority of these items were published in the run-up to polling day, in August and September 2014, with spikes in the frequency of item around particular events such as the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. to the fore will be relevant for years to come.

Self propagating combustion synthesis and luminescent properties of nanocrystalline CeO2: Tb3+ (1-10 mol%) phosphors

Undoped and Tb3+ (1-10 mol%) doped CeO2 nanophosphors were synthesized by low temperature solution combustion method. The combustion derived products were well studied by Powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD), Scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and Ultraviolet visible (UV-Vis) characterizations. The thermoluminescence (TL) glow curves of CeO2: Tb3+ (1-10 mol%) nanophosphors exposed to c source (60Co) for various doses were discussed for the first time. Two TL glow peaks recorded at 182 and 262 degrees C respectively. The TL intensity at 262 degrees C peak increases linearly in the dose range 0.5-7 kGy. Further, this peak was well defined, intense and glow peak structure does not change with c-dose as a result, it was quite useful in TL dosimetry of ionizing radiations. The kinetic parameters associated with the glow peak were estimated using Chen's half width method. The photoluminescence emission (PLE) spectra consists of characteristic peaks at 544 and 655 nm which were attributed to D-5(4) -> F-7(5) and D-5(4) -> F-7(2) transitions of Tb3+ ions. The optimal concentration of Tb3+ ions was found to be 7 mol%. The color co-ordinates of CeO2: Tb3+ (1-10 mol%) located in green region. Hence, this phosphor was quite useful for display applications. (C) 2013 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Développement des méthodes de stabilisation pour la conception des circuits hyperfréquences : application à l'optimisation d'un amplificateur de puissance spatial

209 p. : graf.

Surface-Bound Selectin-Ligand Binding Is Regulated By Carrier Diffusion

Two-dimensional (2D) kinetics of receptor-ligand interactions governs cell adhesion in many biological processes. While the dissociation kinetics of receptor-ligand bond is extensively investigated, the association kinetics has much less been quantified. Recently receptor-ligand interactions between two surfaces were investigated using a thermal fluctuation assay upon biomembrane force probe technique (Chen et al. in Biophys J 94:694-701, 2008). The regulating factors on association kinetics, however, are not well characterized. Here we developed an alternative thermal fluctuation assay using optical trap technique, which enables to visualize consecutive binding-unbinding transition and to quantify the impact of microbead diffusion on receptor-ligand binding. Three selectin constructs (sLs, sPs, and PLE) and their ligand P-selectin glycoprotein ligand 1 were used to conduct the measurements. It was indicated that bond formation was reduced by enhancing the diffusivity of selectin-coupled carrier, suggesting that carrier diffusion is crucial to determine receptor-ligand binding. It was also found that 2D forward rate predicted upon first-order kinetics was in the order of sPs > sLs > PLE and bond formation was history-dependent. These results further the understandings in regulating association kinetics of surface-bound receptor-ligand interactions.

Test particle motion in a Lorentz gas

This is a two-part thesis concerning the motion of a test particle in a bath. In part one we use an expansion of the operator PLe^it(1-P)LLP to shape the Zwanzig equation into a generalized Fokker-Planck equation which involves a diffusion tensor depending on the test particle's momentum and the time.

In part two the resultant equation is studied in some detail for the case of test particle motion in a weakly coupled Lorentz Gas. The diffusion tensor for this system is considered. Some of its properties are calculated; it is computed explicitly for the case of a Gaussian potential of interaction.

The equation for the test particle distribution function can be put into the form of an inhomogeneous Schroedinger equation. The term corresponding to the potential energy in the Schroedinger equation is considered. Its structure is studied, and some of its simplest features are used to find the Green's function in the limiting situations of low density and long time.

Museos, memoria y turismo

Cap. 1. Museos y patrimonio: de la distancia retórica a la interlocución democrática. Iñaki Díaz Balerdi. Cap. 2. Au coeur des conflits entre memoire, histoire et developpement economique, les nouveaux enjeux des musees de société aujourd’hui. François Hubert. Cap. 3. Elites, Instituciones Públicas, identidad cultural y turismo en los orígenes del Museo Municipal de Donostia-San Sebastián. Iñaki Arrieta Urtizberea. Cap. 4. Los orígenes de la museografía etnográfica en Cataluña: el Arxiu-Museu Folklòric de Ripoll. Oriol Beltran Costa. Cap. 5. Museo de la Pesca en Palamós: espacio para la memoria de los pescadores. Miquel Martí i Llambrich. Cap. 6. Arqueología y museos en Gipuzkoa; las experiencias del Centro de Estudios ARKEOLAN (1986-2005). Mª Mercedes Urteaga Artigas. Cap. 7. Penser un Musée des Confluences: un autre discours sur soi et les autres que soi. Thierry Valentin. Cap. 8. Turismo cultural y museos: oportunidades de desarrollo comunes. El caso de Cesis, Letonia. María Fernández Sabau. Cap. 9. La gestión y el uso turístico de los museos: la experiencia de Barcelona. Jordi Juan Tresserras y Juan Carlos Matamala. Cap. 10. Museos, turismo y desarrollo local en el norte de Portugal: el Ecomuseo del Barroso. Xerardo Pereiro. Cap. 11. Turismo y patrimonio cultural en las pequeñas y medianas ciudades: el Barri Vell de Girona y el Museu d’Art de Girona. Josep Manuel Rueda Torres.

Dinâmica socioeconômica do município de Macaé/RJ: uma análise do mercado de trabalho formal após a quebra do monopólio na exploração do petróleo

Esta tese tem por objetivo analisar as transformações socioeconômicas, com ênfase na dinâmica do mercado de trabalho, que ocorreram no município de Macaé, principalmente após a promulgação da Lei n 9.478, de 06/08/1997. Esta lei acabou com o monopólio da petrobras no que concerne a prospecção de petróleo atraindo para a região inúmeras empresas multinacionais. A importância do estudo deste municípío se deve ao fato de Macaé exercer um importante papel economico na retomada do crescimento da economia do Estado do Rio de Janeiro em funçaõ da indústria petrolífera e seus impactos estarem além de suas fronteiras, repercurtindo em toda a região norte fluminense e municípios da baixada litorãnea. Outro aspecto abordado é a forma como a região norte fluminense sempre esteve ligada aos projetos de desenvolvimento de nosso país, principalmente no que diz respeito a políticas energéticas, como o proálcool e o petróleo. Macaé tornou-se um pólo econômico muito forte para o capital porém, as contradições do sistema capítalista caminham na mesma proporção que o dinheiro do petróleo, logo as desigualdades sociais despontam de maneira muito forte e o mercado de trabalho local reflete esta contradição.

太行花MADS-box基因克隆、表达模式及功能分析

基因的重复（duplication）及其功能的多样性（diversification）为生物体新的形态进化提供了原材料。重复的基因通过表达方式和（或）编码序列的改变而导致其亚功能化（subfunctionalization）和（或）新功能化（neofunctionalization），从而使这些重复基因有可能保留在生物体中，增添生物的遗传稳定性（robustness）和多样性。MADS-box基因在植物（特别是在被子植物）的进化过程中发生了大量的基因重复事件而形成一个多基因家族。MADS-box基因家族的不同成员在植物生长发育过程中起着非常重要的作用，在调控开花时间、决定花分生组织和花器官特征，以及调控根、叶、胚珠及果实的发育中起着广泛的作用。开展对MADS-box基因家族成员的序列结构、表达模式及编码蛋白的功能研究可以为这些同源基因在生物体中的可能命运提供很好的实验依据。本研究以我国特有的蔷薇科物种太行花做实验材料，通过3’ RACE和5’ RACE方法从太行花中克隆了7个MADS-box家族的基因。序列和系统进化树分析表明这7个基因分别与拟南芥的MADS-box基因AG、SHP（SHP1/2）、PI、AP1、FUL和SEP1以及与矮牵牛MADS-box基因PhTM6具有很高的同源性并聚为一支，从而将这7个MADS-box基因分别命名为TrAG（Taihangia rupestris AG）、TrSHP（Taihangia rupestris SHP）、TrPI（Taihangia rupestris PI）、TrAP1（Taihangia rupestris AP1）、TrFUL（Taihangia rupestris FUL）、TrSEP1（Taihangia rupestris SEP1）和TrTM6（Taihangia rupestris PhTM6）。针对克隆的这些基因，具体进行了以下几方面的研究： 第一，对TrAG和TrSHP两个MADS-box基因进行了研究，它们分别属于AG亚家族中旁系同源进化系euAG和PLE进化系的成员。通过原位杂交的方法分析了旁系同源基因TrAG和TrSHP的表达方式是否发生了分化;构建组成型表达载体转化野生型拟南芥，分析了TrAG和TrSHP的编码蛋白的功能是否发生了改变;并进一步通过酵母双杂交的方法比较了TrAG和TrSHP的相互作用方式是否发生了分化。原位杂交分析表明，TrAG和TrSHP主要在雄蕊、心皮和胚珠中表达。在花发育过程中，TrAG起始表达比TrSHP早，在随后将形成雄蕊和心皮原基的分生组织区域以及雄蕊原基中表达;然而直到雄蕊原基出现前未检测到TrSHP的表达。在雄蕊原基形成之后，TrAG和TrSHP在发育的雄蕊、随后将产生心皮原基的分生组织区域以及心皮原基中表达。在花发育的晚期，TrAG在发育的柱头、花柱以及胚珠中均有表达，而TrSHP仅在胚珠中表达。35S::TrAG和35S::TrSHP转基因拟南芥植株表现出相似的表型，包括开花提前;莲座叶和茎生叶向腹卷曲、变小;花芽在时期13前即开放，萼片包裹不住花芽;萼片和花瓣分别被同源异型转化为心皮化和雄蕊化器官，并在萼片向腹面产生异位的胚珠;在茎生叶上产生柱头化的乳突和胚珠;子房弯曲;果实提前沿着开裂区裂开，暴露出胚珠。此外，也观察到35S::TrAG和35S::TrSHP转基因拟南芥植株的一些表型差异，35S::TrAG转基因拟南芥植株花芽呈暗绿色，而35S::TrSHP转基因拟南芥植株花芽呈黄绿色;不同与35S::TrAG转基因植株表型的是，35S::TrSHP转基因拟南芥植株花被脱落受到了抑制，偶尔可以观察到花丝基部融合，果实变短、育性降低。酵母双杂交分析表明TrAG可以与TrSEP3相互作用，而TrSHP不能与TrSEP3形成异源二聚体。以上研究结果表明做为旁系同源基因，TrAG和TrSHP在表达方式上发生了改变，在蛋白编码序列上保持了其祖先的功能，但是编码序列的一些差异还是导致它们之间生化作用方式的不同和一定程度上的亚功能化。基于以上研究结果并结合先前报道的在拟南芥、金鱼草和矮牵牛等物种中旁系同源基因的表达和功能数据，我们提出在不同物种中旁系同源基因在进化过程中维持部分功能冗余（redundant），但是也通过改变表达方式、编码蛋白的功能及蛋白相互作用方式呈现出不同形式的亚功能化和（或）新功能化。 第二，对TrPI基因的功能也进行了初步研究，它属于AP3/PI亚家族PI-like进化系的成员。原位杂交结果表明，TrPI主要在花瓣、雄蕊和胚珠中表达。显示出TrPI与拟南芥同源基因PI保守的表达模式。35S::TrPI转基因拟南芥植株莲座叶发生延迟、变小、并且第一至第三片莲座叶呈白色针状;莲座叶和茎生叶并不像野生型呈有规则的螺旋状排列;花序茎基部、中间或顶端发生2-3个分支;在茎生叶的叶腋内的花序抽出时间明显晚于野生型，并且很小甚至不能完全抽出而藏在叶腋内。低温条件下转基因植株莲座叶的表型更加明显，表现为莲座叶变为针状，无叶片，仅有叶柄结构。这明显不同于35S::PI转基因拟南芥植株的表型。此外，酵母双杂交分析表明TrPI自身可以形成同源二聚体。这种相互作用方式也不同与拟南芥中PI的相互作用方式。以上研究结果表明，TrPI可能与拟南芥PI具有保守的表达模式但编码的蛋白可能获得了新的功能。 第三，构建了一个AP1-like基因（TrAP1）的过量表达载体，转化野生型拟南芥植株，通过反向遗传学分析了TrAP1的功能。35S::TrAP1转基因拟南芥植株开花提前;花序以两朵花终止，形成terminal flower的表型;偶尔可以观察到雄蕊转化为花瓣化的器官;莲座叶呈黄绿色并且其边缘呈锯齿状。酵母双杂交分析表明TrAP1蛋白自身可以形成同源二聚体。这些结果表明TrAP1可能与拟南芥同源基因AP1具有保守的功能。

青岛市水资源复合系统动力学模拟研究

水资源是人类赖以生存和发展的最重要的物质资源之一，水资源的可持续利用是实现社会经济可持续发展的必要前提。随着人口的增加，社会经济的发展和人民生活水平的提高，青岛市水资源供需矛盾进一步凸显。本文在分析青岛市水资源利用现状的基础上，运行系统动力学方法，研究了青岛市水资源复合系统可持续利用状况，主要结论如下： （1）采用系统动力学Vensim-PLE软件，以水资源供需平衡为核心，建立了青岛市水资源-社会-经济-生态环境复合系统动力学模型，并以青岛市2000~2008年的统计资料作为基础数据检验了模型的有效性。为了提高模拟效果，分析了模型主要参数的敏感度，发现工业供水比例对模拟结果影响最大，生活供水比例、第三产业供水比例、回用水工业供水比例、污水处理投资系数及回用水生态环境供水比例等参数的敏感度依次减小。 （2）运用所建立的系统动力学模型模拟趋势条件下青岛市2009~2030年的水资源利用及需求状况。结果表明，现状趋势方案下青岛市2009~2030年的总需水量快速增加，2020年、2030年的总需水量分别为96190.6万吨、137300万吨；水资源供需差额急速增加，缺水程度越来越大，到2030年缺水程度达到0.5055；随着青岛市污水处理能力的提高，污水回用量增加，从3000万吨左右增加到接近10000万吨；现状趋势条件下2009~2030年青岛市GDP值快速增长，人口承载力逐渐上升，但上升趋势逐渐趋缓。 （3）假设了5种水资源发展方案：现状趋势发展型，提高污水处理投资系数，提高海水淡化产量，调整各行业用水定额，调整产业结构。用建立的系统动力学模型模拟分析了在这5种方案下的青岛市水资源可持续利用能力。综合比较这5种方案的优缺点，提出优化方案。优化方案1：将污水处理投资系数由0.001提高至0.003；从2009年起海水淡