Property damage crash equivalency factors to solve crash frequency-severity dilemma: Case study on South Korean rural roads

Safety interventions (e.g., median barriers, photo enforcement) and road features (e.g., median type and width) can influence crash severity, crash frequency, or both. Both dimensions—crash frequency and crash severity—are needed to obtain a full accounting of road safety. Extensive literature and common sense both dictate that crashes are not created equal, with fatalities costing society more than 1,000 times the cost of property damage crashes on average. Despite this glaring disparity, the profession has not unanimously embraced or successfully defended a nonarbitrary severity weighting approach for analyzing safety data and conducting safety analyses. It is argued here that the two dimensions (frequency and severity) are made available by intelligently and reliably weighting crash frequencies and converting all crashes to property-damage-only crash equivalents (PDOEs) by using comprehensive societal unit crash costs. This approach is analogous to calculating axle load equivalents in the prediction of pavement damage: for instance, a 40,000-lb truck causes 4,025 times more stress than does a 4,000-lb car and so simply counting axles is not sufficient. Calculating PDOEs using unit crash costs is the most defensible and nonarbitrary weighting scheme, allows for the simple incorporation of severity and frequency, and leads to crash models that are sensitive to factors that affect crash severity. Moreover, using PDOEs diminishes the errors introduced by underreporting of less severe crashes—an added benefit of the PDOE analysis approach. The method is illustrated with rural road segment data from South Korea (which in practice would develop PDOEs with Korean crash cost data).

Accident prediction model for railway-highway interfaces

Considerable past research has explored relationships between vehicle accidents and geometric design and operation of road sections, but relatively little research has examined factors that contribute to accidents at railway-highway crossings. Between 1998 and 2002 in Korea, about 95% of railway accidents occurred at highway-rail grade crossings, resulting in 402 accidents, of which about 20% resulted in fatalities. These statistics suggest that efforts to reduce crashes at these locations may significantly reduce crash costs. The objective of this paper is to examine factors associated with railroad crossing crashes. Various statistical models are used to examine the relationships between crossing accidents and features of crossings. The paper also compares accident models developed in the United States and the safety effects of crossing elements obtained using Korea data. Crashes were observed to increase with total traffic volume and average daily train volumes. The proximity of crossings to commercial areas and the distance of the train detector from crossings are associated with larger numbers of accidents, as is the time duration between the activation of warning signals and gates. The unique contributions of the paper are the application of the gamma probability model to deal with underdispersion and the insights obtained regarding railroad crossing related vehicle crashes. Considerable past research has explored relationships between vehicle accidents and geometric design and operation of road sections, but relatively little research has examined factors that contribute to accidents at railway-highway crossings. Between 1998 and 2002 in Korea, about 95% of railway accidents occurred at highway-rail grade crossings, resulting in 402 accidents, of which about 20% resulted in fatalities. These statistics suggest that efforts to reduce crashes at these locations may significantly reduce crash costs. The objective of this paper is to examine factors associated with railroad crossing crashes. Various statistical models are used to examine the relationships between crossing accidents and features of crossings. The paper also compares accident models developed in the United States and the safety effects of crossing elements obtained using Korea data. Crashes were observed to increase with total traffic volume and average daily train volumes. The proximity of crossings to commercial areas and the distance of the train detector from crossings are associated with larger numbers of accidents, as is the time duration between the activation of warning signals and gates. The unique contributions of the paper are the application of the gamma probability model to deal with underdispersion and the insights obtained regarding railroad crossing related vehicle crashes.

Development of accident prediction models for rural highway intersections

A study was done to develop macrolevel crash prediction models that can be used to understand and identify effective countermeasures for improving signalized highway intersections and multilane stop-controlled highway intersections in rural areas. Poisson and negative binomial regression models were fit to intersection crash data from Georgia, California, and Michigan. To assess the suitability of the models, several goodness-of-fit measures were computed. The statistical models were then used to shed light on the relationships between crash occurrence and traffic and geometric features of the rural signalized intersections. The results revealed that traffic flow variables significantly affected the overall safety performance of the intersections regardless of intersection type and that the geometric features of intersections varied across intersection type and also influenced crash type.

Young drivers’ optimism bias for accident risk and driving skill : accountability and insight experience manipulations

This study aimed to determine whether two brief, low cost interventions would reduce young drivers’ optimism bias for their driving skills and accident risk perceptions. This tendency for such drivers to perceive themselves as more skilful and less prone to driving accidents than their peers may lead to less engagement in precautionary driving behaviours and a greater engagement in more dangerous driving behaviour. 243 young drivers (aged 17 - 25 years) were randomly allocated to one of three groups: accountability, insight or control. All participants provided both overall and specific situation ratings of their driving skills and accident risk relative to a typical young driver. Prior to completing the questionnaire, those in the accountability condition were first advised that their driving skills and accident risk would be later assessed via a driving simulator. Those in the insight condition first underwent a difficult computer-based hazard perception task designed to provide participants with insight into their potential limitations when responding to hazards in difficult and unpredictable driving situations. Participants in the control condition completed only the questionnaire. Results showed that the accountability manipulation was effective in reducing optimism bias in terms of participants’ comparative ratings of their accident risk in specific situations, though only for less experienced drivers. In contrast, among more experienced males, participants in the insight condition showed greater optimism bias for overall accident risk than their counterparts in the accountability or control groups. There were no effects of the manipulations on drivers’ skills ratings. The differential effects of the two types of manipulations on optimism bias relating to one’s accident risk in different subgroups of the young driver sample highlight the importance of targeting interventions for different levels of experience. Accountability interventions may be beneficial for less experienced young drivers but the results suggest exercising caution with the use of insight type interventions, particularly hazard perception style tasks, for more experienced young drivers typically still in the provisional stage of graduated licensing systems.

Overloading truck traffic study and strategy to minimise it

Overloaded truck traffic is a significant problem on highways around the world. Developing countries in particular, overloaded truck traffic causes large amounts of unexpected expenditure in terms of road maintenance because of premature pavement damage. Overloaded truck traffic is a common phenomenon in developing countries, because of inefficient road management and monitoring systems. According to the available literature, many developing countries are facing the same problem, which is economic loss caused by the existence of overloaded trucks in the traffic stream. This paper summarizes the available literature, news reports, journal articles and traffic research regarding overloaded traffic. It examines the issue of overloading and the strategies and legislation used in developed countries.

The role of cultural beliefs in contributing to risky road use behaviour in Pakistan

Background Pakistan has the highest population rate of road fatalities in South Asia (25.3 fatalities per 100,000 people: Global Status Report on Road Safety, WHO 2009). Along with road environment and vehicle factors, human factors make a substantial contribution to traffic safety in Pakistan. Beliefs about road crash causation and prevention have been demonstrated to contribute to risky road use behaviour and resistance to preventive measures in a handful of other developing countries, but has not been explored in Pakistan. In particular, fatalism (whether based on religion, other cultural beliefs or experience) has been highlighted as a barrier to achieving changes in attitudes and behaviour. Aims The research reported here aimed (i) to explore perceptions of road crash causation among policy makers, police officers, professional drivers and car drivers in Pakistan; (ii) to identify how cultural and religious beliefs influence road use behaviour in Pakistan; and (iii) to understand how fatalistic beliefs may work as obstacles to road safety interventions. Methods In-depth interviews were conducted by the primary author (mostly in Urdu) in Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad with 12 professional drivers (taxi, bus and truck), 4 car drivers, 6 police officers, 4 policy makers and 2 religious orators. All but two were Muslim, two were female, and they were drawn from a wide range of ages (24 to 60) and educational backgrounds. The interviews were taped and transcribed, then translated into English and analysed for themes related to the aims. Results Fatalism emerged as a pervasive belief utilised to justify risky road use behaviour and to resist messages about preventive measures. There was a strong religious underpinning to the statement of fatalistic beliefs (this reflects popular conceptions of Islam rather than scholarly interpretations), but also an overlap with superstitious beliefs which have longer-standing roots in Pakistani culture. These beliefs were not limited to people of poor educational background or position. A particular issue which was explored in more detail was the way in which these beliefs and their interpretation within Pakistani society contributed to poor police reporting of crashes. Discussion and conclusions The pervasive nature of fatalistic beliefs in Pakistan affects road user behaviour by supporting continued risk taking behaviour on the road, and by interfering with public health messages about behaviours which would reduce the risk of traffic crashes. The widespread influence of these beliefs on the ways that people respond to traffic crashes and the death of family members contribute to low crash reporting rates and to a system which is difficult to change. The promotion of an evidence-based approach to road user behaviour is recommended, along with improved professional education for police and policy makers.

The lived experience of post-traumatic stress disorder as described by motor vehicle accident victims in Jordan

Aim: To explore the lived experience of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) as described by individuals who have been involved in a motor vehicle accident (MVA) in Jordan. Background: Motor vehicle accident (MVA) survivors who develop post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) have become an important health issue. The World Health Organisation (WHO) states that trauma resulting from MVAs is a phenomenon of increasing concern, with death from injuries projected to rise from 5.1 million in 1990 to 8.4 million in 2020 particularly in developing countries such as Jordan (WHO, 2002). The impact of trauma from MVAs inevitably compromises the victim’s quality of life (WHO, 2002; Blanchard & Hickling, 2007) resulting in psychological and emotional distress, occupational disability, family disintegration, and socio-economic difficulty (Jordan Ministry of Health, 2005). The development of PTSD as a result of an MVA is not limited to the individual, but also extends to the family, friends, and the health care team involved in the person's care and rehabilitation. Design: A descriptive phenomenological approach was used for this study. Method: This study was conducted in an orthopaedic unit in Amera Basma Hospital in Irbid Jordan. Fifteen (15) participants were voluntary recruited through the process of purposeful sampling. Data was collected by face-to-face in depth-interviews. Interviews were digitally recorded and transcribed verbatim. The process of analysis was undertaken using Colaizzi’s (1978) eight step approach with the addition of two extra steps. Findings: The process of analysis identified seven themes explicated from the participants’ transcripts of interview. The seven themes were: 1. Feeling frustrated at a diminishing health status 2. Struggling to maintain a sense of independence 3. Harbouring feelings of not being able to recover 4. Feeling discriminated against and marginalised by society 5. Feeling ignored and neglected by health care professionals 6. Feeling abandoned by family, and 7. Moving toward acceptance through having faith in Allah. Conclusion: The findings of this study have the potential to make a significant contribution to extant knowledge on the topic which can inform future nursing practice, education, policy development, and research initiatives in Jordan and internationally.

An estimate of road accident costs in Singapore

An earlier study by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) showed that the annual cost of road traffic accidents in 2001 was S$699.36 million which was 0.5% of the annual GDP. This paper attempts to update of the cost estimates of road traffic accidents. More precise methods of computing the human cost, lost output and property damage are adopted which grew in an annual cost of S$610.3 million or 0.338% of the annual GDP in 2003. A more conservative estimate of S$878,000 for fatal accident is also obtained, compared to the earlier figure of S$1.4 million. This study has shown that it is necessary to update the annual traffic accident costs regularly, as the figures vary with the number of accidents which change with time.

Modeling random effect and excess zeros in road traffic accident prediction

Poisson distribution has often been used for count like accident data. Negative Binomial (NB) distribution has been adopted in the count data to take care of the over-dispersion problem. However, Poisson and NB distributions are incapable of taking into account some unobserved heterogeneities due to spatial and temporal effects of accident data. To overcome this problem, Random Effect models have been developed. Again another challenge with existing traffic accident prediction models is the distribution of excess zero accident observations in some accident data. Although Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model is capable of handling the dual-state system in accident data with excess zero observations, it does not accommodate the within-location correlation and between-location correlation heterogeneities which are the basic motivations for the need of the Random Effect models. This paper proposes an effective way of fitting ZIP model with location specific random effects and for model calibration and assessment the Bayesian analysis is recommended.

Accident risk identification and its impact analyses for strategic construction safety management

The study presented in this paper reviewed 9,358 accidents which occurred in the U.S. construction industry between 2002 and 2011, in order to understand the relationships between the risk factors and injury severity (e.g. fatalities, hospitalized injuries, or non-hospitalized injuries) and to develop a strategic prevention plan to reduce the likelihood of fatalities where an accident is unavoidable. The study specifically aims to: (1) verify the relationships among risk factors, accident types, and injury severity, (2) determine significant risk factors associated with each accident type that are highly correlated to injury severity, and (3) analyze the impact of the identified key factors on accident and fatality occurrence. The analysis results explained that safety managers’ roles are critical to reducing human-related risks—particularly misjudgement of hazardous situations—through safety training and education, appropriate use of safety devices and proper safety inspection. However, for environment-related factors, the dominant risk factors were different depending on the different accident types. The outcomes of this study will assist safety managers to understand the nature of construction accidents and plan for strategic risk mitigation by prioritizing high frequency risk factors to effectively control accident occurrence and manage the likelihood of fatal injuries on construction sites.

Analyses of systems theory for construction accident prevention with specific reference to OSHA accident reports

To enhance workplace safety in the construction industry it is important to understand interrelationships among safety risk factors associated with construction accidents. This study incorporates the systems theory into Heinrich’s domino theory to explore the interrelationships of risks and break the chain of accident causation. Through both empirical and statistical analyses of 9,358 accidents which occurred in the U.S. construction industry between 2002 and 2011, the study investigates relationships between accidents and injury elements (e.g., injury type, part of body, injury severity) and the nature of construction injuries by accident type. The study then discusses relationships between accidents and risks, including worker behavior, injury source, and environmental condition, and identifies key risk factors and risk combinations causing accidents. The research outcomes will assist safety managers to prioritize risks according to the likelihood of accident occurrence and injury characteristics, and pay more attention to balancing significant risk relationships to prevent accidents and achieve safer working environments.

Model development and dynamic load-sharing analysis of longitudinal-connected air suspensions

The objective of this research was to investigate the effect of suspension parameters on dynamic load-sharing of longitudinal-connected air suspensions of a tri-axle semi-trailer. A novel nonlinear model of a multi-axle semi-trailer with longitudinal-connected air suspension was formulated based on fluid mechanics and thermodynamics and was validated through test results. The effects of suspension parameters on dynamic load-sharing and road-friendliness of the semi-trailer were analyzed. Simulation results indicate that the road-friendliness metric DLC (Dynamic Load Coefficient), is generally in accordance with the load-sharing metric - DLSC (Dynamic Load Sharing Coefficient). When the static height or static pressure increases, the DLSC optimization ratio declines monotonically. The effect of employing larger air lines and connectors on the DLSC optimization ratio gives varying results as road roughness increases and as driving speed increases. The results also indicate that if the air line diameter is always assumed to be larger than the connector diameter, the influence of air line diameter on load-sharing is more significant than that of the connector.

Fatalism, superstition, religion, and culture : road user beliefs and behaviour in Pakistan

Road traffic crashes have emerged as a major health problem around the world. Road crash fatalities and injuries have been reduced significantly in developed countries, but they are still an issue in low and middle-income countries. The World Health Organization (WHO, 2009) estimates that the death toll from road crashes in low- and middle-income nations is more than 1 million people per year, or about 90% of the global road toll, even though these countries only account for 48% of the world's vehicles. Furthermore, it is estimated that approximately 265,000 people die every year in road crashes in South Asian countries and Pakistan stands out with 41,494 approximately deaths per year. Pakistan has the highest rate of fatalities per 100,000 population in the region and its road crash fatality rate of 25.3 per 100,000 population is more than three times that of Australia's. High numbers of road crashes not only cause pain and suffering to the population at large, but are also a serious drain on the country's economy, which Pakistan can ill-afford. Most studies identify human factors as the main set of contributing factors to road crashes, well ahead of road environment and vehicle factors. In developing countries especially, attention and resources are required in order to improve things such as vehicle roadworthiness and poor road infrastructure. However, attention to human factors is also critical. Human factors which contribute to crashes include high risk behaviours like speeding and drink driving, and neglect of protective behaviours such as helmet wearing and seat belt wearing. Much research has been devoted to the attitudes, beliefs and perceptions which contribute to these behaviours and omissions, in order to develop interventions aimed at increasing safer road use behaviours and thereby reducing crashes. However, less progress has been made in addressing human factors contributing to crashes in developing countries as compared to the many improvements in road environments and vehicle standards, and this is especially true of fatalistic beliefs and behaviours. This is a significant omission, since in different cultures in developing countries there are strong worldviews in which predestination persists as a central idea, i.e. that one's life (and death) and other events have been mapped out and are predetermined. Fatalism refers to a particular way in which people regard the events that occur in their lives, usually expressed as a belief that an individual does not have personal control over circumstances and that their lives are determined through a divine or powerful external agency (Hazen & Ehiri, 2006). These views are at odds with the dominant themes of modern health promotion movements, and present significant challenges for health advocates who aim to avert road crashes and diminish their consequences. The limited literature on fatalism reveals that it is not a simple concept, with religion, culture, superstition, experience, education and degree of perceived control of one's life all being implicated in accounts of fatalism. One distinction in the literature that seems promising is the distinction between empirical and theological fatalism, although there are areas of uncertainty about how well-defined the distinction between these types of fatalism is. Research into road safety in Pakistan is scarce, as is the case for other South Asian countries. From the review of the literature conducted, it is clear that the descriptions given of the different belief systems in developing countries including Pakistan are not entirely helpful for health promotion purposes and that further research is warranted on the influence of fatalism, superstition and other related beliefs in road safety. Based on the information available, a conceptual framework is developed as a means of structuring and focusing the research and analysis. The framework is focused on the influence of fatalism, superstition, religion and culture on beliefs about crashes and road user behaviour. Accordingly, this research aims to provide an understanding of the operation of fatalism and related beliefs in Pakistan to assist in the development and implementation of effective and culturally appropriate interventions. The research examines the influence of fatalism, superstition, religious and cultural beliefs on risky road use in Pakistan and is guided by three research questions: 1. What are the perceptions of road crash causation in Pakistan, in particular the role of fatalism, superstition, religious and cultural beliefs? 2. How does fatalism, superstition, and religious and cultural beliefs influence road user behaviour in Pakistan? 3. Do fatalism, superstition, and religious and cultural beliefs work as obstacles to road safety interventions in Pakistan? To address these questions, a qualitative research methodology was developed. The research focused on gathering data through individual in-depth interviewing using a semi-structured interview format. A sample of 30 participants was interviewed in Pakistan in the cities of Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad. The participants included policy makers (with responsibility for traffic law), experienced police officers, religious orators, professional drivers (truck, bus and taxi) and general drivers selected through a combination of purposive, criterion and snowball sampling. The transcripts were translated from Urdu and analysed using a thematic analysis approach guided by the conceptual framework. The findings were divided into four areas: attribution of crash causation to fatalism; attribution of road crashes to beliefs about superstition and malicious acts; beliefs about road crash causation linked to popular concepts of religion; and implications for behaviour, safety and enforcement. Fatalism was almost universally evident, and expressed in a number of ways. Fate was used to rationalise fatal crashes using the argument that the people killed were destined to die that day, one way or another. Related to this was the sense of either not being fully in control of the vehicle, or not needing to take safety precautions, because crashes were predestined anyway. A variety of superstitious-based crash attributions and coping methods to deal with road crashes were also found, such as belief in the role of the evil eye in contributing to road crashes and the use of black magic by rivals or enemies as a crash cause. There were also beliefs related to popular conceptions of religion, such as the role of crashes as a test of life or a source of martyrdom. However, superstitions did not appear to be an alternative to religious beliefs. Fate appeared as the 'default attribution' for a crash when all other explanations failed to account for the incident. This pervasive belief was utilised to justify risky road use behaviour and to resist messages about preventive measures. There was a strong religious underpinning to the statement of fatalistic beliefs (this reflects popular conceptions of Islam rather than scholarly interpretations), but also an overlap with superstitious and other culturally and religious-based beliefs which have longer-standing roots in Pakistani culture. A particular issue which is explored in more detail is the way in which these beliefs and their interpretation within Pakistani society contributed to poor police reporting of crashes. The pervasive nature of fatalistic beliefs in Pakistan affects road user behaviour by supporting continued risk taking behaviour on the road, and by interfering with public health messages about behaviours which would reduce the risk of traffic crashes. The widespread influence of these beliefs on the ways that people respond to traffic crashes and the death of family members contribute to low crash reporting rates and to a system which appears difficult to change. Fate also appeared to be a major contributing factor to non-reporting of road crashes. There also appeared to be a relationship between police enforcement and (lack of) awareness of road rules. It also appears likely that beliefs can influence police work, especially in the case of road crash investigation and the development of strategies. It is anticipated that the findings could be used as a blueprint for the design of interventions aimed at influencing broad-spectrum health attitudes and practices among the communities where fatalism is prevalent. The findings have also identified aspects of beliefs that have complex social implications when designing and piloting driver intervention strategies. By understanding attitudes and behaviours related to fatalism, superstition and other related concepts, it should be possible to improve the education of general road users, such that they are less likely to attribute road crashes to chance, fate, or superstition. This study also underscores the understanding of this issue in high echelons of society (e.g., policy makers, senior police officers) as their role is vital in dispelling road users' misconceptions about the risks of road crashes. The promotion of an evidence or scientifically-based approach to road user behaviour and road safety is recommended, along with improved professional education for police and policy makers.

Systematic variation of the severity of motor vehicle accident-related traumatic brain injury vignettes produces different post-concussion symptom reports

This study investigated the specificity of the post-concussion syndrome (PCS) expectation-as-etiology hypothesis. Undergraduate students (n = 551) were randomly allocated to one of three vignette conditions. Vignettes depicted either a very mild (VMI), mild (MI), or moderate-to-severe (MSI) motor vehicle-related traumatic brain injury (TBI). Participants reported the PCS and PTSD symptoms that they imagined the depicted injury would produce. Secondary outcomes (knowledge of mild TBI, and the perceived undesirability of TBI) were also assessed. After data screening, the distribution of participants by condition was: VMI (n = 100), MI (n = 96), and MSI (n = 71). There was a significant effect of condition on PCS symptomatology, F(2, 264) = 16.55, p < .001. Significantly greater PCS symptomatology was expected in the MSI condition compared to the other conditions (MSI > VMI; medium effect, r = .33; MSI > MI; small-to-medium effect, r = .22). The same pattern of group differences was found for PTSD symptoms, F(2, 264) = 17.12, p < .001. Knowledge of mild TBI was not related to differences in expected PCS symptoms by condition; and the perceived undesirability of TBI was only associated with reported PCS symptomatology in the MSI condition. Systematic variation in the severity of a depicted TBI produces different PCS and PTSD symptom expectations. Even a very mild TBI vignette can elicit expectations of PCS symptoms.