Transferring control demands across incidental learning tasks - Stronger sequence usage in serial reaction task after shortcut option in letter string checking

After incidentally learning about a hidden regularity, participants can either continue to solve the task as instructed or, alternatively, apply a shortcut. Past research suggests that the amount of conflict implied by adopting a shortcut seems to bias the decision for vs. against continuing instruction-coherent task processing. We explored whether this decision might transfer from one incidental learning task to the next. Theories that conceptualize strategy change in incidental learning as a learning-plus-decision phenomenon suggest that high demands to adhere to instruction-coherent task processing in Task 1 will impede shortcut usage in Task 2, whereas low control demands will foster it. We sequentially applied two established incidental learning tasks differing in stimuli, responses and hidden regularity (the alphabet verification task followed by the serial reaction task, SRT). While some participants experienced a complete redundancy in the task material of the alphabet verification task (low demands to adhere to instructions), for others the redundancy was only partial. Thus, shortcut application would have led to errors (high demands to follow instructions). The low control demand condition showed the strongest usage of the fixed and repeating sequence of responses in the SRT. The transfer results are in line with the learning-plus-decision view of strategy change in incidental learning, rather than with resource theories of self-control.

Renewal equations for option pricing

In this paper we will develop a methodology for obtaining pricing expressions for financial instruments whose underlying asset can be described through a simple continuous-time random walk (CTRW) market model. Our approach is very natural to the issue because it is based in the use of renewal equations, and therefore it enhances the potential use of CTRW techniques in finance. We solve these equations for typical contract specifications, in a particular but exemplifying case. We also show how a formal general solution can be found for more exotic derivatives, and we compare prices for alternative models of the underlying. Finally, we recover the celebrated results for the Wiener process under certain limits.

Sildenafil as a therapeutic option for digital ischemic ulceration: case report.

We report the case of a 37-year-old woman who developed critical upper limb ischemia caused by a cervical rib. Because the malformation was initially undiagnosed, a vascular bypass was performed, and failure occurred. Following a 6-month therapy with sildenafil, revascularization of the arm was successful and amputation was avoided. A 6-year follow-up shows a rich collateral network at the compression site and normal values of digital plethysmography. Because hand surgeons often see patients with digital ulcerations and other manifestations of peripheral vascular pathology, therapy of ischemia with sildenafil could be an effective treatment option in patients not responding to classic drugs.

On Option Price Information Content and Extraction of Implied Probability Distributions

In this study we used market settlement prices of European call options on stock index futures to extract implied probability distribution function (PDF). The method used produces a PDF of returns of an underlying asset at expiration date from implied volatility smile. With this method, the assumption of lognormal distribution (Black-Scholes model) is tested. The market view of the asset price dynamics can then be used for various purposes (hedging, speculation). We used the so called smoothing approach for implied PDF extraction presented by Shimko (1993). In our analysis we obtained implied volatility smiles from index futures markets (S&P 500 and DAX indices) and standardized them. The method introduced by Breeden and Litzenberger (1978) was then used on PDF extraction. The results show significant deviations from the assumption of lognormal returns for S&P500 options while DAX options mostly fit the lognormal distribution. A deviant subjective view of PDF can be used to form a strategy as discussed in the last section.

Fuzzy real option analysis in patent related decision making and patent valuation

The shift towards a knowledge-based economy has inevitably prompted the evolution of patent exploitation. Nowadays, patent is more than just a prevention tool for a company to block its competitors from developing rival technologies, but lies at the very heart of its strategy for value creation and is therefore strategically exploited for economic pro t and competitive advantage. Along with the evolution of patent exploitation, the demand for reliable and systematic patent valuation has also reached an unprecedented level. However, most of the quantitative approaches in use to assess patent could arguably fall into four categories and they are based solely on the conventional discounted cash flow analysis, whose usability and reliability in the context of patent valuation are greatly limited by five practical issues: the market illiquidity, the poor data availability, discriminatory cash-flow estimations, and its incapability to account for changing risk and managerial flexibility. This dissertation attempts to overcome these impeding barriers by rationalizing the use of two techniques, namely fuzzy set theory (aiming at the first three issues) and real option analysis (aiming at the last two). It commences with an investigation into the nature of the uncertainties inherent in patent cash flow estimation and claims that two levels of uncertainties must be properly accounted for. Further investigation reveals that both levels of uncertainties fall under the categorization of subjective uncertainty, which differs from objective uncertainty originating from inherent randomness in that uncertainties labelled as subjective are highly related to the behavioural aspects of decision making and are usually witnessed whenever human judgement, evaluation or reasoning is crucial to the system under consideration and there exists a lack of complete knowledge on its variables. Having clarified their nature, the application of fuzzy set theory in modelling patent-related uncertain quantities is effortlessly justified. The application of real option analysis to patent valuation is prompted by the fact that both patent application process and the subsequent patent exploitation (or commercialization) are subject to a wide range of decisions at multiple successive stages. In other words, both patent applicants and patentees are faced with a large variety of courses of action as to how their patent applications and granted patents can be managed. Since they have the right to run their projects actively, this flexibility has value and thus must be properly accounted for. Accordingly, an explicit identification of the types of managerial flexibility inherent in patent-related decision making problems and in patent valuation, and a discussion on how they could be interpreted in terms of real options are provided in this dissertation. Additionally, the use of the proposed techniques in practical applications is demonstrated by three fuzzy real option analysis based models. In particular, the pay-of method and the extended fuzzy Black-Scholes model are employed to investigate the profitability of a patent application project for a new process for the preparation of a gypsum-fibre composite and to justify the subsequent patent commercialization decision, respectively; a fuzzy binomial model is designed to reveal the economic potential of a patent licensing opportunity.

Social Economy and Developmental Disabilities: An Employment Option that Promotes a Form of Authentic Work and Fosters Social Inclusion

Typical employment options for people with developmental disabilities are insufficient. Most employment opportunities that are community-based provide typical workplace and geographical inclusion but tend not to support social inclusion and "belonging". This study explored the innovative employment alternative of social businesses and considered this form of employment for persons with a developmental disability as a viable avenue for meaningful work and social inclusion. A total of six business partners with a developmental disability were interviewed; two partners from three separate worker owned businesses. The partners' descriptions of their job and their workplace composed the interpretative findings. The social businesses provided an avenue for this group of people who tend to be segregated in isolated workshops or marginalized in mainstream work environments and who feel a sense of being "outsiders" to participate in meaningful work in community settings. This group of partners described their job as authentic "work" and discussed the many skills and the work ethic learned from their employment opportunity. In addition to the instrumental aspects of the job, the partners also discussed the group autonomy and self-determination of being their own "bosses". The partners confidently expressed feeling valued, understood in the context of others with similar life experiences, attached to the workplace and connected to a larger community as important outcomes of their businesses. These criteria of social inclusion (Hall, 2010) were complemented by teamwork, friendship and ultimately, with a feeling of being genuine "insiders". Replication of this innovative employment model would be recommended for groups of marginalized people with DD in other geographic areas.

The Social Enterprise as an Alternative Work Option for Persons with Developmental Disabilities: A Case Study of Staff Perspectives at Common Ground Co-operative

Traditional employment options for persons with developmental disabilities are lacking. Employment options available for persons with developmental disabilities are reflective of the medical and social model perspectives of disability; with segregated and supported employment reinforcing the idea that persons with developmental disabilities are incapable and competitive employment missing the necessary accommodations for persons to be successful. This study examined social enterprises as an alternative employment option that can balance both medical and social model perspectives by accommodating for weaknesses or limitations and recognizing the strengths and capabilities of persons with developmental disabilities in the workplace. Moreover, this study is part of a broader case study which is examining the nature and impacts of a social enterprise, known as Common Ground Co-operative (CGC), which supports five social purpose businesses that are owned and operated by persons with developmental disabilities. This study is part of the Social Business and Marginalized Social Groups Community-University Research Alliance. To date, a case study has been written describing the nature and impacts of CGC and its related businesses from the perspectives of the Partners, board members, funders and staff (Owen, Readhead, Bishop, Hope & Campbell, in press & Readhead, 2012). The current study used a descriptive case study approach to provide a detailed account of the perceptions and opinions of CGC staff members who support each of the Partners in the five related businesses. Staff members were chosen for the focus of this study because of the integral role that they play in the successful outcomes of the persons they support. This study was conducted in two phases. In the first phase five staff members were interviewed. During this stage of interviews, several themes were presented which needed to be examined in further detail, specifically staff stress and burnout and duty of care for business Partners versus the promotion of their autonomy. A second phase of interviews was then conducted with one individual participant and a focus group of seven. During both interview phases, Staff participants described an employment model that creates a non-judgemental environment for the business Partners that promotes their strengths, accommodates for their limitations, provides educational opportunities and places the responsibility for the businesses on the persons with developmental disabilities cultivating equality and promoting independence. Staff described the nature of their role including risk factors for stress, the protective factors that buffer stress, and the challenges associated with balancing many role demands. Issues related to the replication of this social enterprise model are described.

La révalorisation des friches industrielles: une approche option réelle.

Rapport de recherche

L'évaluation par option réelle: une application au secteur du cuivre.

Rapport de recherche

Empirical Assessment of an Intertemporal Option Pricing Model with Latent variables

This paper assesses the empirical performance of an intertemporal option pricing model with latent variables which generalizes the Hull-White stochastic volatility formula. Using this generalized formula in an ad-hoc fashion to extract two implicit parameters and forecast next day S&P 500 option prices, we obtain similar pricing errors than with implied volatility alone as in the Hull-White case. When we specialize this model to an equilibrium recursive utility model, we show through simulations that option prices are more informative than stock prices about the structural parameters of the model. We also show that a simple method of moments with a panel of option prices provides good estimates of the parameters of the model. This lays the ground for an empirical assessment of this equilibrium model with S&P 500 option prices in terms of pricing errors.

Risk Aversion, Intertemporal Substitution, and Option Pricing

This paper develops a general stochastic framework and an equilibrium asset pricing model that make clear how attitudes towards intertemporal substitution and risk matter for option pricing. In particular, we show under which statistical conditions option pricing formulas are not preference-free, in other words, when preferences are not hidden in the stock and bond prices as they are in the standard Black and Scholes (BS) or Hull and White (HW) pricing formulas. The dependence of option prices on preference parameters comes from several instantaneous causality effects such as the so-called leverage effect. We also emphasize that the most standard asset pricing models (CAPM for the stock and BS or HW preference-free option pricing) are valid under the same stochastic setting (typically the absence of leverage effect), regardless of preference parameter values. Even though we propose a general non-preference-free option pricing formula, we always keep in mind that the BS formula is dominant both as a theoretical reference model and as a tool for practitioners. Another contribution of the paper is to characterize why the BS formula is such a benchmark. We show that, as soon as we are ready to accept a basic property of option prices, namely their homogeneity of degree one with respect to the pair formed by the underlying stock price and the strike price, the necessary statistical hypotheses for homogeneity provide BS-shaped option prices in equilibrium. This BS-shaped option-pricing formula allows us to derive interesting characterizations of the volatility smile, that is, the pattern of BS implicit volatilities as a function of the option moneyness. First, the asymmetry of the smile is shown to be equivalent to a particular form of asymmetry of the equivalent martingale measure. Second, this asymmetry appears precisely when there is either a premium on an instantaneous interest rate risk or on a generalized leverage effect or both, in other words, whenever the option pricing formula is not preference-free. Therefore, the main conclusion of our analysis for practitioners should be that an asymmetric smile is indicative of the relevance of preference parameters to price options.

Identités militantes et identité collective : le cas d'Option citoyenne

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal