Effects of spatial resolution in the simulation of daily and subdaily precipitation in the southwestern US

We evaluate the effects of spatial resolution on the ability of a regional climate model to reproduce observed extreme precipitation for a region in the Southwestern United States. A total of 73 National Climate Data Center observational sites spread throughout Arizona and New Mexico are compared with regional climate simulations at the spatial resolutions of 50 km and 10 km for a 31 year period from 1980 to 2010. We analyze mean, 3-hourly and 24-hourly extreme precipitation events using WRF regional model simulations driven by NCEP-2 reanalysis. The mean climatological spatial structure of precipitation in the Southwest is well represented by the 10 km resolution but missing in the coarse (50 km resolution) simulation. However, the fine grid has a larger positive bias in mean summer precipitation than the coarse-resolution grid. The large overestimation in the simulation is in part due to scale-dependent deficiencies in the Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization scheme that generate excessive precipitation and induce a slow eastward propagation of the moist convective summer systems in the high-resolution simulation. Despite this overestimation in the mean, the 10 km simulation captures individual extreme summer precipitation events better than the 50 km simulation. In winter, however, the two simulations appear to perform equally in simulating extremes.

Dynamic auroral structure in the vicinity of the polar cusp - multipoint observations during southward and northward IMF

The low- and high-latitude boundary layers of the earth's magnetosphere [low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) and mantle] play important roles in transferring momentum and energy from the solar wind to the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. Particle precipitation, field-aligned current, auroral emission, ionospheric ion drift and ground magnetic perturbations are among the low-altitude parameters that show signatures of various plasma processes in the LLBL and the magnetopause current layer. Magnetic merging events, Kelvin-Helmholtz waves, and pressure pulses excited by the variable solar wind/magnetosheath plasma are examples of boundary phenomena that may be coupled to the ionosphere via field-aligned currents. Optical auroral observation, by photometry and all-sky TV cameras, is a unique technique for investigating the spatial and temporal structure of the electron precipitation associated with such phenomena. However, the distinction between the different boundary layer plasma populations cannot in general be unambiguously determined by optics alone. Additional information, such as satellite observations of particle boundaries and field-aligned currents, is needed in order to identify the plasma source(s) and the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling mode(s). Two categories of auroral activity/structure in the vicinity of the polar cusp are discussed in this paper, based on combined ground and satellite data. In one case, the quasi-periodic sequence of auroral events at the polar cap boundary involves accelerated electrons (< 1 keV) moving poleward (< 1 km s-1) and azimuthally along the persistent cusp/cleft arc poleward boundary with velocities (< 4 km s-1), comparable to the local ionospheric ion drift during periods of southward IMF. A critical question is whether or not the optical events signify a corresponding plasma flow across the open/closed field line boundary in such cases. Near-simultaneous observations of magnetopause flux transfer events (FTEs) and such optical/ion drift events are reported. The reverse pattern of motion of discrete auroral forms is observed during positive interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) B(Z), i.e. equatorward motion into the cusp/cleft background arc from the poleward edge. Combined satellite and ground-based information for the latter cases indicate a source mechanism, poleward of the cusp at the high-latitude magnetopause or plasma mantle, giving rise to strong momentum transfer and electron precipitation structures within a approximately 200 km-wide latitudinal zone at the cusp/cleft poleward boundary. The striking similarities of auroral electrodynamics in the cleft/mantle region during northward and southward IMF indicate that a qualitatively similar solar wind-magnetosphere coupling mode is operating. It is suggested that, in both cases, the discrete auroral forms represent temporal/spatial structure of larger-scale convection over the polar magnetosphere.

The diffusion of grassroots innovations for sustainability in Italy and Great Britain: an exploratory spatial data analysis

Little research so far has been devoted to understanding the diffusion of grassroots innovation for sustainability across space. This paper explores and compares the spatial diffusion of two networks of grassroots innovations, the Transition Towns Network (TTN) and Gruppi di Acquisto Solidale (Solidarity Purchasing Groups – GAS), in Great Britain and Italy. Spatio-temporal diffusion data were mined from available datasets, and patterns of diffusion were uncovered through an exploratory data analysis. The analysis shows that GAS and TTN diffusion in Italy and Great Britain is spatially structured, and that the spatial structure has changed over time. TTN has diffused differently in Great Britain and Italy, while GAS and TTN have diffused similarly in central Italy. The uneven diffusion of these grassroots networks on the one hand challenges current narratives on the momentum of grassroots innovations, but on the other highlights important issues in the geography of grassroots innovations for sustainability, such as cross-movement transfers and collaborations, institutional thickness, and interplay of different proximities in grassroots innovation diffusion.

Fitting spatial models in the R package: hglm

We present a new version of the hglm package for fittinghierarchical generalized linear models (HGLM) with spatially correlated random effects. A CAR family for conditional autoregressive random effects was implemented. Eigen decomposition of the matrix describing the spatial structure (e.g. the neighborhood matrix) was used to transform the CAR random effectsinto an independent, but heteroscedastic, gaussian random effect. A linear predictor is fitted for the random effect variance to estimate the parameters in the CAR model.This gives a computationally efficient algorithm for moderately sized problems (e.g. n<5000).

Fitting conditional and simultaneous autoregressive spatial models in hglm

We present a new version (> 2.0) of the hglm package for fitting hierarchical generalized linear models (HGLMs) with spatially correlated random effects. CAR() and SAR() families for conditional and simultaneous autoregressive random effects were implemented. Eigen decomposition of the matrix describing the spatial structure (e.g., the neighborhood matrix) was used to transform the CAR/SAR random effects into an independent, but eteroscedastic, Gaussian random effect. A linear predictor is fitted for the random effect variance to estimate the parameters in the CAR and SAR models. This gives a computationally efficient algorithm for moderately sized problems.

GPS receivers for georeferencing of spatial variability of soil attributes

A caracterização da variabilidade espacial dos atributos do solo é indispensável para subsidiar práticas agrícolas de maneira sustentável. A utilização da geoestatística para caracterizar a variabilidade espacial desses atributos, como a resistência mecânica do solo à penetração (RP) e a umidade gravimétrica do solo (UG), é, hoje, prática usual na agricultura de precisão. O resultado da análise geoestatística é dependente da densidade amostral e de outros fatores, como o método de georreferencimento utilizado. Desta forma, o presente trabalho teve como objetivo comparar dois métodos de georreferenciamento para a caracterização da variabilidade espacial da RP e da UG, bem como a correlação espacial dessas variáveis. Foi implantada uma malha amostral de 60 pontos, espaçados em 20 m. Para as medições da RP, utilizou-se de penetrógrafo eletrônico e, para a determinação da UG, utilizou-se de trado holandês (profundidade de 0,0-0,1 m). As amostras foram georreferenciadas, utilizando-se do método de Posicionamento por Ponto Simples (PPS), com de (retirar) receptor GPS de navegação, e Posicionamento Relativo Semicinemático, com receptor GPS geodésico L1. Os resultados indicaram que o georreferenciamento realizado pelo PPS não interferiu na caracterização da variabilidade espacial da RP e da UG, assim como na estrutura espacial da relação dos atributos.

Spatial variability of soil penetration resistance influenced by season of sampling

O objetivo deste trabalho foi analizar a distribuição espacial da compactação do solo e a influência da umidade do solo na resistência à penetração. Esta última variável foi descrita pelo índice de cone. O solo estudado foi Nitossolo e os dados de índice de cone foram obtidos usando um penetrômetro. A resistência do solo foi avaliada a 5 profundidades diferentes, 0-10 cm, 10-20 cm, 20-30 cm, 30-40 cm e mais de 40 cm, porém o conteúdo de umidade do solo foi medido a 0-20 cm e 20-40 cm. As condições hídricas do solo variaram nas diferentes amostragems. Os coeficientes de variação para o índice de cone foram 16,5% a 45,8% e os do conteúdo de umidade do solo variaram entre 8,96% e 21,38%. Os resultados sugeriram elevada correlação entre a resistência do solo, estimada pelo índice de cone e a profundidade do solo. Sem embargo, a relação esperada com a umidade do solo não foi apreciada. Observou-se dependência espacial em 31 de 35 séries de dados de índice de cone e umidade do solo. Esta dependência foi ajustada por modelos exponenciais com efeito pepita variável de 0 a 90% o valor do patamar. em séries de dados o comportamento foi aleatório. Portanto, a técnica das distâncias inversas foi utilizada para cartografar a distribuição das variáveis que não tiveram estrutura espacial. Na krigagem constatou-se uma suavização dos mapas comparados com esses das distâncias inversas. A krigagem indicadora foi utilizada para cartografar a variabilidade espacial do índice de cone e recomendar melhor manejo do solo.

Spatial variability of soil water content and mechanical resistance of Brazilian ferralsol

The spatial variability of mechanical resistance to penetration (PR) and gravimetric moisture (GM) was studied at a depth of 0-0.40 m, in a ferralsol cropped with corn, and under conventional tillage in llha Solteira, Brazil (latitude 20 degrees 17'S, and longitude 52 degrees 25'W). The purpose of this study was to analyse and to try explaining the spatial variability of the mentioned soil physical properties using geostatistics. Soil data was collected at points arranged on the nodes of a mesh with 97 points. Geostatistics was used to analyse the spatial variability of PR and GM at four depths: 0-0. 1, 0.1-0.2, 0.2-0.3 and 0.3-0.4 m. PR showed a higher variability of data, with coefficients of variation of 52.39, 30.54, 16.91, and 15.18%, from the surface layers to the deepest layers. The values of the coefficients of variation for GM were lower: 9.99, 5.13, 5.59, and 5.69%. Correlation between GM and PR for the same soil layers was low. Penetration resistance showed spatial structure only in the 0.30-0.40 m layer, while gravimetric moisture showed spatial structure at all depths except for 0-0. 10 m. All the models of fitted semivariograms were spherical and exponential, with ranges of 10-80 m. Data for the variable 'GM' in the 0.20-0.30 and 0.30-0.40 m layers revealed a trend in data attributed to the occurrence of subsurface water flow. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prevalência e localização espacial dos casos de tracoma detectados em escolares de Botucatu, São Paulo - Brasil

OBJETIVO: Avaliar a prevalência de tracoma em escolares de Botucatu/SP-Brasil e a distribuição espacial dos casos. MÉTODOS: Foi realizado um estudo transversal, em crianças de 7-14 anos, que frequentavam as escolas do ensino fundamental de Botucatu/SP, em novembro/2005. O tamanho da amostra foi estimado em 2.092 crianças, considerando-se a prevalência histórica de 11,2%, aceitando-se erro de estimação de 10% e nível de confiança de 95%. A amostra foi probabilística, ponderada e acrescida de 20%, devido à possível ocorrência de perdas. Examinaram-se 2.692 crianças. O diagnóstico foi clínico, baseado na normatização da Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS). Para avaliação dos dados espaciais, utilizou-se o programa CartaLinx (v1.2), sendo os setores de demanda escolar digitalizados de acordo com as divisões do planejamento da Secretaria de Educação. Os dados foram analisados estatisticamente, sendo a análise da estrutura espacial dos eventos calculadas usando o programa Geoda. RESULTADOS: A prevalência de tracoma nos escolares de Botucatu foi de 2,9%, tendo sido detectados casos de tracoma folicular. A análise exploratória espacial não permitiu rejeitar a hipótese nula de aleatoriedade (I= -0,45, p>0,05), não havendo setores de demanda significativos. A análise feita para os polígonos de Thiessen também mostrou que o padrão global foi aleatório (I= -0,07; p=0,49). Entretanto, os indicadores locais apontaram um agrupamento do tipo baixo-baixo para um polígono ao norte da área urbana. CONCLUSÃO: A prevalência de tracoma em escolares de Botucatu foi de 2,9%. A análise da distribuição espacial não revelou áreas de maior aglomeração de casos. Embora o padrão global da doença não reproduza as condições socioeconômicas da população, a prevalência mais baixa do tracoma foi encontrada em setores de menor vulnerabilidade social.

Ecological modeling and pest population management: a possible and necessary connection in a changing world

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Cupin: A candidate molecular structure for the Nep1-like protein family

Background: NEP1-like proteins (NLPs) are a novel family of microbial elicitors of plant necrosis. Some NLPs induce a hypersensitive-like response in dicot plants though the basis for this response remains unclear. In addition, the spatial structure and the role of these highly conserved proteins are not known.Results: We predict a 3d-structure for the beta-rich section of the NLPs based on alignments, prediction tools and molecular dynamics. We calculated a consensus sequence from 42 NLPs proteins, predicted its secondary structure and obtained a high quality alignment of this structure and conserved residues with the two Cupin superfamily motifs. The conserved sequence GHRHDWE and several common residues, especially some conserved histidines, in NLPs match closely the two cupin motifs. Besides other common residues shared by dicot Auxin-Binding Proteins (ABPs) and NLPs, an additional conserved histidine found in all dicot ABPs was also found in all NLPs at the same position.Conclusion: We propose that the necrosis inducing protein class belongs to the Cupin superfamily. Based on the 3d-structure, we are proposing some possible functions for the NLPs.

Oviposition pattern and within-season spatial and temporal variation of pre-dispersal seed predation in a population of Mimosa bimucronata trees

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Validação de sistema de amostragem para monitoramento de formigas cortadeiras atta spp. (Hymenoptera: formicidae) em plantações de eucalipto

Pós-graduação em Ciência Florestal - FCA

The influence of landscape on the spatial and temporal distribution of stream macroalgal communities of two types of subtropical biomes

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The roles of environmental conditions and spatial factors in controlling stream macroalgal communities

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)