Uncertainty propagation in inverse reliability-based design of composite structures

An approach for the analysis of uncertainty propagation in reliability-based design optimization of composite laminate structures is presented. Using the Uniform Design Method (UDM), a set of design points is generated over a domain centered on the mean reference values of the random variables. A methodology based on inverse optimal design of composite structures to achieve a specified reliability level is proposed, and the corresponding maximum load is outlined as a function of ply angle. Using the generated UDM design points as input/output patterns, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is developed based on an evolutionary learning process. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation using ANN development is performed to simulate the behavior of the critical Tsai number, structural reliability index, and their relative sensitivities as a function of the ply angle of laminates. The results are generated for uniformly distributed random variables on a domain centered on mean values. The statistical analysis of the results enables the study of the variability of the reliability index and its sensitivity relative to the ply angle. Numerical examples showing the utility of the approach for robust design of angle-ply laminates are presented.

Multiobjective design of viscoelastic laminated composite sandwich panels

The optimal design of laminated sandwich panels with viscoelastic core is addressed in this paper, with the objective of simultaneously minimizing weight and material cost and maximizing modal damping. The design variables are the number of layers in the laminated sandwich panel, the layer constituent materials and orientation angles and the viscoelastic layer thickness. The problem is solved using the Direct MultiSearch (DMS) solver for multiobjective optimization problems which does not use any derivatives of the objective functions. A finite element model for sandwich plates with transversely compressible viscoelastic core and anisotropic laminated face layers is used. Trade-off Pareto optimal fronts are obtained and the results are analyzed and discussed.

Statistical Optimum Design of Heat Exchangers

The optimal design of a heat exchanger system is based on given model parameters together with given standard ranges for machine design variables. The goals set for minimizing the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) function which represents the price of the saved energy, for maximizing the momentary heat recovery output with given constraints satisfied and taking into account the uncertainty in the models were successfully done. Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) for the design optimization of a system is presented and implemented inMatlab environment. Markov ChainMonte Carlo (MCMC) methods are also used to take into account the uncertainty in themodels. Results show that the price of saved energy can be optimized. A wet heat exchanger is found to be more efficient and beneficial than a dry heat exchanger even though its construction is expensive (160 EUR/m2) compared to the construction of a dry heat exchanger (50 EUR/m2). It has been found that the longer lifetime weights higher CAPEX and lower OPEX and vice versa, and the effect of the uncertainty in the models has been identified in a simplified case of minimizing the area of a dry heat exchanger.

Bayesian methods for estimation, optimization and experimental design

Mathematical models often contain parameters that need to be calibrated from measured data. The emergence of efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods has made the Bayesian approach a standard tool in quantifying the uncertainty in the parameters. With MCMC, the parameter estimation problem can be solved in a fully statistical manner, and the whole distribution of the parameters can be explored, instead of obtaining point estimates and using, e.g., Gaussian approximations. In this thesis, MCMC methods are applied to parameter estimation problems in chemical reaction engineering, population ecology, and climate modeling. Motivated by the climate model experiments, the methods are developed further to make them more suitable for problems where the model is computationally intensive. After the parameters are estimated, one can start to use the model for various tasks. Two such tasks are studied in this thesis: optimal design of experiments, where the task is to design the next measurements so that the parameter uncertainty is minimized, and model-based optimization, where a model-based quantity, such as the product yield in a chemical reaction model, is optimized. In this thesis, novel ways to perform these tasks are developed, based on the output of MCMC parameter estimation. A separate topic is dynamical state estimation, where the task is to estimate the dynamically changing model state, instead of static parameters. For example, in numerical weather prediction, an estimate of the state of the atmosphere must constantly be updated based on the recently obtained measurements. In this thesis, a novel hybrid state estimation method is developed, which combines elements from deterministic and random sampling methods.

A DOE based approach for the design of RBF artificial neural networks applied to prediction of surface roughness in AISI 52100 hardened Steel turning

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Optimal synthesis of liquid-liquid multistage extractors

Presentation in the 11th European Symposium of the Working Party on Computer Aided Process Engineering, Kolding, Denmark, May 27-30, 2001.

Rigorous Design of Complex Distillation Columns Using Process Simulators and the Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

We present a derivative-free optimization algorithm coupled with a chemical process simulator for the optimal design of individual and complex distillation processes using a rigorous tray-by-tray model. The proposed approach serves as an alternative tool to the various models based on nonlinear programming (NLP) or mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) . This is accomplished by combining the advantages of using a commercial process simulator (Aspen Hysys), including especially suited numerical methods developed for the convergence of distillation columns, with the benefits of the particle swarm optimization (PSO) metaheuristic algorithm, which does not require gradient information and has the ability to escape from local optima. Our method inherits the superstructure developed in Yeomans, H.; Grossmann, I. E.Optimal design of complex distillation columns using rigorous tray-by-tray disjunctive programming models. Ind. Eng. Chem. Res.2000, 39 (11), 4326–4335, in which the nonexisting trays are considered as simple bypasses of liquid and vapor flows. The implemented tool provides the optimal configuration of distillation column systems, which includes continuous and discrete variables, through the minimization of the total annual cost (TAC). The robustness and flexibility of the method is proven through the successful design and synthesis of three distillation systems of increasing complexity.

Design of improved membrane protein production experiments:quantitation of the host response

Eukaryotic membrane proteins cannot be produced in a reliable manner for structural analysis. Consequently, researchers still rely on trial-and-error approaches, which most often yield insufficient amounts. This means that membrane protein production is recognized by biologists as the primary bottleneck in contemporary structural genomics programs. Here, we describe a study to examine the reasons for successes and failures in recombinant membrane protein production in yeast, at the level of the host cell, by systematically quantifying cultures in high-performance bioreactors under tightlydefined growth regimes. Our data show that the most rapid growth conditions of those chosen are not the optimal production conditions. Furthermore, the growth phase at which the cells are harvested is critical: We show that it is crucial to grow cells under tightly-controlled conditions and to harvest them prior to glucose exhaustion, just before the diauxic shift. The differences in membrane protein yields that we observe under different culture conditions are not reflected in corresponding changes in mRNA levels of FPS1, but rather can be related to the differential expression of genes involved in membrane protein secretion and yeast cellular physiology. Copyright © 2005 The Protein Society.

Doehlert Design-desirability Function Multi-criteria Optimal Separation Of 17 Phenolic Compounds From Extra-virgin Olive Oil By Capillary Zone Electrophoresis.

In Brazil, the consumption of extra-virgin olive oil (EVOO) is increasing annually, but there are no experimental studies concerning the phenolic compound contents of commercial EVOO. The aim of this work was to optimise the separation of 17 phenolic compounds already detected in EVOO. A Doehlert matrix experimental design was used, evaluating the effects of pH and electrolyte concentration. Resolution, runtime and migration time relative standard deviation values were evaluated. Derringer's desirability function was used to simultaneously optimise all 37 responses. The 17 peaks were separated in 19min using a fused-silica capillary (50μm internal diameter, 72cm of effective length) with an extended light path and 101.3mmolL(-1) of boric acid electrolyte (pH 9.15, 30kV). The method was validated and applied to 15 EVOO samples found in Brazilian supermarkets.

Optimal recovery process conditions for manganese-peroxidase obtained by solid-state fermentation of eucalyptus residue using Lentinula edodes

Enzyme production is a growing field in biotechnology and increasing attention has been devoted to the solid-state fermentation (SSF) of lignocellulosic biomass for production of industrially relevant lignocellulose deconstruction enzymes, especially manganese-peroxidase (MnP), which plays a crucial role in lignin degradation. However, there is a scarcity of studies regarding extraction of the secreted metabolities that are commonly bound to the fermented solids, preventing their accurate detection and limiting recovery efficiency. In the present work, we assessed the effectiveness of extraction process variables (pH, stirring rate, temperature, and extraction time) on recovery efficiency of manganese-peroxidase (MnP) obtained by SSF of eucalyptus residues using Lentinula edodes using statistical design of experiments. The results from this study indicated that of the variables studied, pH was the most significant (p < 0.05%) parameter affecting MnP recovery yield, while temperature, extraction time, and stirring rate presented no statistically significant effects in the studied range. The optimum pH for extraction of MnP was at 4.0-5.0, which yielded 1500-1700 IU kg (1) of enzyme activity at extraction time 4-5 h, under static condition at room temperature. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal design and operation of compact simulated moving bed processes for enantioseparations

Simulated moving bed (SMB) chromatography is attracting more and more attention since it is a powerful technique for complex separation tasks. Nowadays, more than 60% of preparative SMB units are installed in the pharmaceutical and in the food in- dustry [SDI, Preparative and Process Liquid Chromatography: The Future of Process Separations, International Strategic Directions, Los Angeles, USA, 2002. http://www. strategicdirections.com]. Chromatography is the method of choice in these ¯elds, be- cause often pharmaceuticals and ¯ne-chemicals have physico-chemical properties which di®er little from those of the by-products, and they may be thermally instable. In these cases, standard separation techniques as distillation and extraction are not applicable. The noteworthiness of preparative chromatography, particulary SMB process, as a sep- aration and puri¯cation process in the above mentioned industries has been increasing, due to its °exibility, energy e±ciency and higher product purity performance. Consequently, a new SMB paradigm is requested by the large number of potential small- scale applications of the SMB technology, which exploits the °exibility and versatility of the technology. In this new SMB paradigm, a number of possibilities for improving SMB performance through variation of parameters during a switching interval, are pushing the trend toward the use of units with smaller number of columns because less stationary phase is used and the setup is more economical. This is especially important for the phar- maceutical industry, where SMBs are seen as multipurpose units that can be applied to di®erent separations in all stages of the drug-development cycle. In order to reduce the experimental e®ort and accordingly the coast associated with the development of separation processes, simulation models are intensively used. One impor- tant aspect in this context refers to the determination of the adsorption isotherms in SMB chromatography, where separations are usually carried out under strongly nonlinear conditions in order to achieve higher productivities. The accurate determination of the competitive adsorption equilibrium of the enantiomeric species is thus of fundamental importance to allow computer-assisted optimization or process scale-up. Two major SMB operating problems are apparent at production scale: the assessment of product quality and the maintenance of long-term stable and controlled operation. Constraints regarding product purity, dictated by pharmaceutical and food regulatory organizations, have drastically increased the demand for product quality control. The strict imposed regulations are increasing the need for developing optically pure drugs.(...)

Optimal design in the presence of random or fixed block effects

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2014

On the design of peer punishment experiments

We discuss how technologies of peer punishment might bias the results that are observed in experiments. A crucial parameter is the “fine-to-fee” ratio, which describes by how much the punished subjects income is reduced relatively to the fee the punishing subject has to pay to inflict punishment. We show that a punishment technology commonly used in experiments embeds a variable fine-to-fee ratio and show that it confounds the empirical findings about why, whom, and how much subjects punish.

Blood pressure and LDL-cholesterol targets for prevention of recurrent strokes and cognitive decline in the hypertensive patient: design of the European Society of Hypertension-Chinese Hypertension League Stroke in Hypertension Optimal Treatment randomized trial.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The SBP values to be achieved by antihypertensive therapy in order to maximize reduction of cardiovascular outcomes are unknown; neither is it clear whether in patients with a previous cardiovascular event, the optimal values are lower than in the low-to-moderate risk hypertensive patients, or a more cautious blood pressure (BP) reduction should be obtained. Because of the uncertainty whether 'the lower the better' or the 'J-curve' hypothesis is correct, the European Society of Hypertension and the Chinese Hypertension League have promoted a randomized trial comparing antihypertensive treatment strategies aiming at three different SBP targets in hypertensive patients with a recent stroke or transient ischaemic attack. As the optimal level of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level is also unknown in these patients, LDL-C-lowering has been included in the design. PROTOCOL DESIGN: The European Society of Hypertension-Chinese Hypertension League Stroke in Hypertension Optimal Treatment trial is a prospective multinational, randomized trial with a 3 × 2 factorial design comparing: three different SBP targets (1, <145-135; 2, <135-125; 3, <125 mmHg); two different LDL-C targets (target A, 2.8-1.8; target B, <1.8 mmol/l). The trial is to be conducted on 7500 patients aged at least 65 years (2500 in Europe, 5000 in China) with hypertension and a stroke or transient ischaemic attack 1-6 months before randomization. Antihypertensive and statin treatments will be initiated or modified using suitable registered agents chosen by the investigators, in order to maintain patients within the randomized SBP and LDL-C windows. All patients will be followed up every 3 months for BP and every 6 months for LDL-C. Ambulatory BP will be measured yearly. OUTCOMES: Primary outcome is time to stroke (fatal and non-fatal). Important secondary outcomes are: time to first major cardiovascular event; cognitive decline (Montreal Cognitive Assessment) and dementia. All major outcomes will be adjudicated by committees blind to randomized allocation. A Data and Safety Monitoring Board has open access to data and can recommend trial interruption for safety. SAMPLE SIZE CALCULATION: It has been calculated that 925 patients would reach the primary outcome after a mean 4-year follow-up, and this should provide at least 80% power to detect a 25% stroke difference between SBP targets and a 20% difference between LDL-C targets.

The design of optimal education policies when individuals differ in inherited wealth and ability

In this paper I consider the role of education poli-cies in redistribution of income when individuals differ in two aspects: ability and inherited wealth. I discuss the extent to which the rules that emerge in unidimensional settings apply also in the bidimen-sional setting considered in this paper. The main conclusion is that, subject to some qualifi cations, the same type of rules that determine optimal education policies when only ability heterogeneity is considered apply to the case where both parameters of heterogeneity are considered. The qualifi cations pertain to the implementation of the optimal alloca-tion of resources to education and not the way the optimal allocations fi rst- and second-best differ.