Um modelo bi-nível para o investimento multi-etapa em capacidade de transmissão e geração de energia elétrica em mercados competitivos

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

The contribution of multiple use forest management to small farmers' annual incomes in the Eastern Amazon

Small-scale farmers in the Brazilian Amazon collectively hold tenure over more than 12 million ha of permanent forest reserves, as required by the Forest Code. The trade-off between forest conservation and other land uses entails opportunity costs for them and for the country, which have not been sufficiently studied. We assessed the potential income generated by multiple use forest management for farmers and compared it to the income potentially derived from six other agricultural land uses. Income from the forest was from (i) logging, carried out by a logging company in partnership with farmers' associations; and (ii) harvesting the seeds of Carapa guianensis (local name andiroba) for the production of oil. We then compared the income generated by multiple-use forest management with the income from different types of agrarian systems. According to our calculations in this study, the mean annual economic benefits from multiple forest use are the same as the least productive agrarian system, but only 25% of the annual income generated by the most productive system. Although the income generated by logging may be considered low when calculated on an annual basis and compared to incomes generated by agriculture, the one-time payment after logging is significant (US$5,800 to US$33,508) and could be used to implement more intensive and productive cropping systems such as planting black pepper. The income from forest management could also be used to establish permanent fields in deforested areas for highly productive annual crops using conservation agriculture techniques. These techniques are alternatives to the traditional land use based on periodic clearing of the forest. Nevertheless, the shift in current practices towards adoption of more sustainable conservation agriculture techniques will also require the technical and legal support of the State to help small farmers apply these alternatives, which aim to integrate forest management in sustainable agricultural production systems.

Voter Participation in the 1998 Bundestag Elections: A Theoretical Modification and Empirical Application of Downs’ Theory of Voter Participation

This article seeks to contribute to the illumination of the so-called 'paradox of voting' using the German Bundestag elections of 1998 as an empirical case. Downs' model of voter participation will be extended to include elements of the theory of subjective expected utility (SEU). This will allow a theoretical and empirical exploration of the crucial mechanisms of individual voters' decisions to participate, or abstain from voting, in the German general election of 1998. It will be argued that the infinitely low probability of an individual citizen's vote to decide the election outcome will not necessarily reduce the probability of electoral participation. The empirical analysis is largely based on data from the ALLBUS 1998. It confirms the predictions derived from SEU theory. The voters' expected benefits and their subjective expectation to be able to influence government policy by voting are the crucial mechanisms to explain participation. By contrast, the explanatory contribution of perceived information and opportunity costs is low.

Low-Income Developing Countries and WTO Litigation: Why Wake Up the Sleeping Dog?

The World Trade Organization (WTO) is one of the most judicialized dispute settlement systems in international politics. While a general appreciation has developed that the system has worked quite well, research has not paid sufficient attention to the weakest actors in the system. This paper addresses the puzzle of missing cases of least-developed countries initiating WTO disputes settlement procedures. It challenges the existing literature on developing countries in WTO dispute settlement which predominantly focuses on legal capacity and economic interests. The paper provides an argument that the small universe of ‘actionable cases’, the option of free riding and the assessment of the perceived opportunity costs related to other foreign policy priorities better explain the absence of cases. In addition (and somewhat counterintuitively), we argue that the absence of cases is not necessarily bad news and shows how the weakest actors can use the dispute settlement system in a ‘lighter version’ or in indirect ways. The argument is empirically assessed by conducting a case study on four West African cotton-producing countries (C4) and their involvement in dispute settlement.

The effect of superiors' exogenous constraints on budget negotiations

In a world characterized by increasing pressure from financial and product markets, the question of how exogenous constraints affect internal coordination and control processes has become increasingly important. This experiment investigates how two exogenous constraints that superiors can face in budget negotiation settings, increased opportunity costs and financial pressure to meet unit targets, affect budget negotiations and subordinate effort. The results show that both constraints induce more cooperation, but in different ways. Financial pressure on the superior leads to more cooperative negotiation behavior by superiors and subordinates than increased opportunity costs. Specifically, subordinates do not take advantage of the superior's increased financial pressure to enforce lower budgets. After negotiation, both constraints strongly mitigate the negative effects of superior budget imposition on subordinate effort because exogenous constraints eliminate the effect of procedural fairness considerations on subordinate effort.

Responding to Price Signals in Communal Agriculture: Shaker Hog Production, 1788-1850

Isolated Shaker communal farms stressed self-sufficiency as an ideal but carefully chose which goods to buy and sell in external markets and which to produce and consume themselves. We use records of hog slaughter weights to investigate the extent to which the Shakers incorporated market-based price information in determining production levels of a consumption good which they did not sell in external markets: pork. Granger causality tests indicate that Shaker pork production decisions were influenced as hypothesized, strongly by corn prices and weakly by pork prices. We infer that attention to opportunity costs of goods that they produced and consumed themselves was a likely factor aiding the longevity of Shaker communal societies.

FACTORS INFLUENCING CHOICE OF CONTRACEPTIVE METHOD AMONG MARRIED FECUND WOMEN WHO INTEND NO ADDITIONAL BIRTHS: HEALTH BELIEF MODEL AND ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES

This research examined to what extent Health Belief Model (HBM) and socioeconomic variables were useful in explaining the choice whether or not more effective contraceptive methods were used among married fecund women intending no additional births. The source of the data was the 1976 National Survey of Family Growth conducted under the auspices of the National Center for Health Statistics. Using the HBM as a framework for multivariate analyses limited support was found (using available measures) that the HBM components of motivation and perceived efficacy influence the likelihood of more effective contraceptive method use. Support was also found that modifying variables suggested by the HBM can influence the effects of HBM components on the likelihood of more effective method use. Socioeconomic variables were found, using all cases and some subgroups, to have a significant additional influence on the likelihood of use of more effective methods. Limited support was found for the concept that the greater the opportunity costs of an unwanted birth the greater the likelihood of use of more effective contraceptive methods. This research supports the use of HBM and socioeconomic variables to explain the likelihood of a protective health behavior, use of more effective contraception if no additional births are intended.^

Marketing público y marketing universitario : la orientación de las universidades hacia la satisfacción de demandas de conocimiento de la sociedad

La idea del marketing público se genera durante el siglo XX estableciendo un intercambio entre Estado y Sociedad. La Administración Pública diseña programas, bienes y servicios, como contraparte, los ciudadanos ofrecen apoyos mediante impuestos y costos de desplazamiento, tiempo y oportunidad. El marketing universitario, propone un intercambio entre las universidades y los alumnos para satisfacer las demandas de conocimiento y formación técnica-profesional. La problemática abordada en esta propuesta es la satisfacción de necesidades públicas a través del marketing público y, en este contexto, el marketing universitario y las demandas de conocimiento de la sociedad.

Latin American Agricultural Trade: The Role of the WTO in Sustainable Virtual Water Flows, European Association of Agricultural Economists

International agricultural trade has been growing significantly during the last decade. Many countries rely on imports to ensure adequate food supplies to the people. A few are becoming food baskets of the world. This process raises issues about the food security in depending countries and potentially unsustainable land and water use in exporting countries. In this paper, we analyse the impacts of amplified farm trade on natural resources, especially water. Farm exports and imports of five Latin America countries (Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Peru and Chile) are examined carefully. A preliminary analysis indicates that virtual water imports can save valuable water resources in water-short countries, such as Mexico and Chile. Major exporting countries, including Brazil and Argentina, have become big exporters due to abundant natural resource endowments. The opportunity costs of agricultural production in those countries are identified as being low, because of the predominant green water use. It is concluded that virtual water trade can be a powerful tool to alleviate water stress in semi-arid countries. However, for exporting nations a sustainable water use can only be guaranteed if environmental production costs are fully reflected in the commodity prices. There is no basis for erecting environmental trade tariffs on exporters though. Setting up legal foundations for them in full compliance with WTOs processes would be a daunting task.

Spatial Planning Measures for the Enhancement of Urban Resilience Against Flooding Risk

Dentro del campo de la ciudad como lugar se analiza el concepto de planificación territorial y planeamiento espacial. Flooding is one of the main risks associated to many urban settlements in Spain and, indeed, elsewhere. The location of cities has traditionally ignored this type of risk as other locational criteria prevailed (communications, crop yields, etc.). Defence engineering has been the customary way to offset the risk but, nowadays, the opportunity costs of engineering works in urban areas has highlighted the interest of “soft measures” based on prevention. Early warning systems plus development planning controls rank among the most favoured ones. This paper reflects the results of a recent EU-financed research project on alternative measures geared to the enhancement of urban resilience against flooding. A city study in Spain is used as example of those measures.

How returns from tertiary education differ by field of study. Implications for policy-makers and students. CEPS Working Document No. 411/July 2015

With the huge growth in enrolment in higher education, the key question facing young people today is not so much “what to study” as “whether to study”. Taking a methodologically innovative approach, this paper measures the net present value of university education and compares returns from studying a range of different subjects. We use data from 5 European countries (France, Italy, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia) and include (opportunity) costs in the computation. Results suggest that enrolling in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) courses is often not the best investment for students, especially female students. In choosing what to study, therefore, students are taking decisions that are consistent with their own private returns. This suggests that policymakers should consider changing the incentives offered if they wish to change students’ behaviour.

Fiji mapped mangrove ecosystem service rankings in GeoJSON format

Incorporating the values of the services that ecosystems provide into decision making is becoming increasingly common in nature conservation and resource management policies, both locally and globally. Yet with limited funds for conservation of threatened species and ecosystems there is a desire to identify priority areas where investment efficiently conserves multiple ecosystem services. We mapped four mangrove ecosystems services (coastal protection, fisheries, biodiversity, and carbon storage) across Fiji. Using a cost-effectiveness analysis, we prioritised mangrove areas for each service, where the effectiveness was a function of the benefits provided to the local communities, and the costs were associated with restricting specific uses of mangroves. We demonstrate that, although priority mangrove areas (top 20%) for each service can be managed at relatively low opportunity costs (ranging from 4.5 to 11.3% of overall opportunity costs), prioritising for a single service yields relatively low co-benefits due to limited geographical overlap with priority areas for other services. None-the-less, prioritisation of mangrove areas provides greater overlap of benefits than if sites were selected randomly for most ecosystem services. We discuss deficiencies in the mapping of ecosystems services in data poor regions and how this may impact upon the equity of managing mangroves for particular services across the urban-rural divide in developing countries. Finally we discuss how our maps may aid decision-makers to direct funding for mangrove management from various sources to localities that best meet funding objectives, as well as how this knowledge can aid in creating a national mangrove zoning scheme.

Value Assessment of Orphan Drugs and Treatments for Rare Diseases

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Modeling the economic losses from pressure ulcers among hospitalized patients in Australia

The objective of this study was to predict the number of cases of pressure ulcer, the bed days lost, and the economic value of these losses at Australian public hospitals. All adults (>= 18 years of age) with a minimum stay of 1 night and discharged from selected clinical units from all Australian public hospitals in 2001-02 were included in the study. The main outcome measures were the number of cases of pressure ulcer, bed days lost to pressure ulcer, and economic value of these losses. We predict a median of 95,695 cases of pressure ulcer with a median of 398,432 bed days lost, incurring median opportunity costs of AU$285 M. The number of cases, and so costs, were greatest in New South Wales and lowest in Australian Capitol Territory. We conclude that pressure ulcers represent a serious clinical and economic problem for a resource-constrained public hospital system. The most cost-effective, risk-reducing interventions should be pursued up to a point where the marginal benefit of prevention is equalized with marginal cost. By preventing pressure ulcers, public hospitals can improve efficiency and the quality of the patient's experience and health outcome.

Incremental cost-effectiveness of exercise echocardiography vs. SPECT imaging for the evaluation of stable chest pain

Aims Technological advances in cardiac imaging have led to dramatic increases in test utilization and consumption of a growing proportion of cardiovascular healthcare costs. The opportunity costs of strategies favouring exercise echocardiography or SPECT imaging have been incompletely evaluated. Methods and results We examined prognosis and cost-effectiveness of exercise echocardiography (n=4884) vs. SPECT (n=4637) imaging in stable, intermediate risk, chest pain patients. Ischaemia extent was defined as the number of vascular territories with echocardiographic wall motion or SPECT perfusion abnormalities. Cox proportional hazard models were employed to assess time to cardiac death or myocardial infarction (MI). Total cardiovascular costs were summed (discounted and inflation-corrected) throughout follow-up. A cost-effectiveness ratio = 2% annual event risk), SPECT ischaemia was associated with earlier and greater utilization of coronary revascularization (P < 0.0001) resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $32 381/LYS. Conclusion Health care policies aimed at allocating limited resources can be effectively guided by applying clinical and economic outcomes evidence. A strategy aimed at cost-effective testing would support using echocardiography in low-risk patients with suspected coronary disease, whereas those higher risk patients benefit from referral to SPECT imaging.