Model Prediction Control For Water Management Using Adaptive Prediction Accuracy

In the field of operational water management, Model Predictive Control (MPC) has gained popularity owing to its versatility and flexibility. The MPC controller, which takes predictions, time delay and uncertainties into account, can be designed for multi-objective management problems and for large-scale systems. Nonetheless, a critical obstacle, which needs to be overcome in MPC, is the large computational burden when a large-scale system is considered or a long prediction horizon is involved. In order to solve this problem, we use an adaptive prediction accuracy (APA) approach that can reduce the computational burden almost by half. The proposed MPC scheme with this scheme is tested on the northern Dutch water system, which comprises Lake IJssel, Lake Marker, the River IJssel and the North Sea Canal. The simulation results show that by using the MPC-APA scheme, the computational time can be reduced to a large extent and a flood protection problem over longer prediction horizons can be well solved.

Control algorithms for large scale adaptive optics

In this dissertation, the problem of creating effective large scale Adaptive Optics (AO) systems control algorithms for the new generation of giant optical telescopes is addressed. The effectiveness of AO control algorithms is evaluated in several respects, such as computational complexity, compensation error rejection and robustness, i.e. reasonable insensitivity to the system imperfections. The results of this research are summarized as follows: 1. Robustness study of Sparse Minimum Variance Pseudo Open Loop Controller (POLC) for multi-conjugate adaptive optics (MCAO). The AO system model that accounts for various system errors has been developed and applied to check the stability and performance of the POLC algorithm, which is one of the most promising approaches for the future AO systems control. It has been shown through numerous simulations that, despite the initial assumption that the exact system knowledge is necessary for the POLC algorithm to work, it is highly robust against various system errors. 2. Predictive Kalman Filter (KF) and Minimum Variance (MV) control algorithms for MCAO. The limiting performance of the non-dynamic Minimum Variance and dynamic KF-based phase estimation algorithms for MCAO has been evaluated by doing Monte-Carlo simulations. The validity of simple near-Markov autoregressive phase dynamics model has been tested and its adequate ability to predict the turbulence phase has been demonstrated both for single- and multiconjugate AO. It has also been shown that there is no performance improvement gained from the use of the more complicated KF approach in comparison to the much simpler MV algorithm in the case of MCAO. 3. Sparse predictive Minimum Variance control algorithm for MCAO. The temporal prediction stage has been added to the non-dynamic MV control algorithm in such a way that no additional computational burden is introduced. It has been confirmed through simulations that the use of phase prediction makes it possible to significantly reduce the system sampling rate and thus overall computational complexity while both maintaining the system stable and effectively compensating for the measurement and control latencies.

Cichlid species-area relationships are shaped by adaptive radiations that scale with area

A positive relationship between species richness and island size is thought to emerge from an equilibrium between immigration and extinction rates, but the influence of species diversification on the form of this relationship is poorly understood. Here, we show that within-lake adaptive radiation strongly modifies the species-area relationship for African cichlid fishes. The total number of species derived from in situ speciation increases with lake size, resulting in faunas orders of magnitude higher in species richness than faunas assembled by immigration alone. Multivariate models provide evidence for added influence of lake depth on the species-area relationship. Diversity of clades representing within-lake radiations show responses to lake area, depth and energy consistent with limitation by these factors, suggesting that ecological factors influence the species richness of radiating clades within these ecosystems. Together, these processes produce lake fish faunas with highly variable composition, but with diversities that are well predicted by environmental variables.

Dynamics of a local Alpine flooding event in October 2011: moisture source and large-scale circulation

Alpine heavy precipitation events often affect small catchments, although the circulation pattern leading to the event extends over the entire North Atlantic. The various scale interactions involved are particularly challenging for the numerical weather prediction of such events. Unlike previous studies focusing on the southern Alps, here a comprehensive study of a heavy precipitation event in the northern Alps in October 2011 is presented with particular focus on the role of the large-scale circulation in the North Atlantic/European region. During the event exceptionally high amounts of total precipitable water occurred in and north of the Alps. This moisture was initially transported along the flanks of a blocking ridge over the North Atlantic. Subsequently, strong and persistent northerly flow established at the upstream flank of a trough over Europe and steered the moisture towards the northern Alps. Lagrangian diagnostics reveal that a large fraction of the moisture emerged from the West African coast where a subtropical upper-level cut-off low served as an important moisture collector. Wave activity flux diagnostics show that the ridge was initiated as part of a low-frequency, large-scale Rossby wave train while convergence of fast transients helped to amplify it locally in the North Atlantic. A novel diagnostic for advective potential vorticity tendencies sheds more light on this amplification and further emphasizes the role of the ridge in amplifying the trough over Europe. Operational forecasts misrepresented the amplitude and orientation of this trough. For the first time, this study documents an important pathway for northern Alpine flooding, in which the interaction of synoptic-scale to large-scale weather systems and of long-range moisture transport from the Tropics are dominant. Moreover, the trapping of moisture in a subtropical cut-off near the West African coast is found to be a crucial precursor to the observed European high-impact weather.

More adaptive versus less maladaptive coping: What is more predictive of symptom severity? Development of a new scale to investigate coping profiles across different psychopathological syndromes

BACKGROUND: Lack of adaptive and enhanced maladaptive coping with stress and negative emotions are implicated in many psychopathological disorders. We describe the development of a new scale to investigate the relative contribution of different coping styles to psychopathology in a large population sample. We hypothesized that the magnitude of the supposed positive correlation between maladaptive coping and psychopathology would be stronger than the supposed negative correlation between adaptive coping and psychopathology. We also examined whether distinct coping style patterns emerge for different psychopathological syndromes. METHODS: A total of 2200 individuals from the general population participated in an online survey. The Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), the Obsessive-Compulsive Inventory revised (OCI-R) and the Paranoia Checklist were administered along with a novel instrument called Maladaptive and Adaptive Coping Styles (MAX) questionnaire. Participants were reassessed six months later. RESULTS: MAX consists of three dimensions representing adaptive coping, maladaptive coping and avoidance. Across all psychopathological syndromes, similar response patterns emerged. Maladaptive coping was more strongly related to psychopathology than adaptive coping both cross-sectionally and longitudinally. The overall number of coping styles adopted by an individual predicted greater psychopathology. Mediation analysis suggests that a mild positive relationship between adaptive and certain maladaptive styles (emotional suppression) partially accounts for the attenuated relationship between adaptive coping and depressive symptoms. LIMITATIONS: Results should be replicated in a clinical population. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that maladaptive and adaptive coping styles are not reciprocal. Reducing maladaptive coping seems to be more important for outcome than enhancing adaptive coping. The study supports transdiagnostic approaches advocating that maladaptive coping is a common factor across different psychopathologies.

Utility of the Social Responsiveness Scale- Parent Report (SRS-Parent) as a Diagnostic Tool for Autism Identification

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Optimising the diagnostic performance of the Geriatric Depression Scale

The aim of this work is to empirically generate a shortened version of the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), with the intention of maximising the diagnostic performance in the detection of depression compared with previously GDS validated versions, while optimizing the size of the instrument. A total of 233 individuals (128 from a Day Hospital, 105 randomly selected from the community) aged 60 or over completed the GDS and other measures. The 30 GDS items were entered in the Day Hospital sample as independent variables in a stepwise logistic regression analysis predicting diagnosis of Major Depression. A final solution of 10 items was retained, which correctly classified 97.4% of cases. The diagnostic performance of these 10 GDS items was analysed in the random sample with a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Sensitivity (100%), specificity (97.2%), positive (81.8%) and negative (100%) predictive power, and the area under the curve (0.994) were comparable with values for GDS-30 and higher compared with GDS-15, GDS-10 and GDS-5. In addition, the new scale proposed had excellent fit when testing its unidimensionality with CFA for categorical outcomes (e.g., CFI=0.99). The 10-item version of the GDS proposed here, the GDS-R, seems to retain the diagnostic performance for detecting depression in older adults of the GDS-30 items, while increasing the sensitivity and predictive values relative to other shortened versions.

Managing small-scale commercial fisheries for adaptive capacity: Insights from dynamic social-ecological drivers of change in Monterey Bay

Globally, small-scale fisheries (SSFs) are driven by climate, governance, and market factors of social-ecological change, presenting both challenges and opportunities. The ability of small-scale fishermen and buyers to adapt to changing conditions allows participants to survive economic or environmental disturbances and to benefit from optimal conditions. This study presented here identifies key large-scale factors that drive SSFs in California to shift focus among targets and that dictate long-term trends in landings. We use Elinor Ostrom’s Social-Ecological System (SES) framework to apply an interdisciplinary approach when identifying potential factors and when understanding the complex dynamics of these fisheries. We analyzed the interactions among Monterey Bay SSFs over the past four decades since the passage of the Magnuson Stevens Fisheries Conservation and Management Act of 1976. In this region, the Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax), northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax), and market squid (Loligo opalescens) fisheries comprise a tightly linked system where shifting focus among fisheries is a key element to adaptive capacity and reduced social and ecological vulnerability. Using a cluster analysis of landings, we identified four modes from 1974 to 2012 that were dominated by squid, sardine, anchovy, or lacked any dominance, enabling us to identify external drivers attributed to a change in fishery dominance during seven distinct transition points. Overall, we show that market and climate factors drive the transitions among dominance modes. Governance phases most dictated long-term trends in landings and are best viewed as a response to changes in perceived biomass and thus a proxy for biomass. Our findings suggest that globally, small-scale fishery managers should consider enabling shifts in effort among fisheries and retaining existing flexibility, as adaptive capacity is a critical determinant for social and ecological resilience.

Overgrazing in the Montado? The need for monitoring grazing pressure at paddock scale

Montados are presently facing the threat of either abandonment or intensification, and livestock overgrazing has been suspected of contributing to reduced natural regeneration and biodiversity. However, reliable data are to our knowledge, lacking. To avoid potential risks of overgrazing, an adaptive and efficient management is essential. In the present paper we review the main sources of complexity for grazing management linked with interactions among pasture, livestock and human decisions. We describe the overgrazing risk in montados and favour grazing pressure over stocking rate, as a key indicator for monitoring changes and support management decisions. We suggest the use of presently available imaging and communication technologies for assessing pasture dynamics and livestock spatial location. This simple and effective tools used for monitoring the grazing pressure, could provide an efficient day-to-day aid for farm managers’ operational use and also for rangeland research through data collection and analysis.

Time-frequency and time-scale analysis of Barkhausen noise signals

Carrying out information about the microstructure and stress behaviour of ferromagnetic steels, magnetic Barkhausen noise (MBN) has been used as a basis for effective non-destructive testing methods, opening new areas in industrial applications. One of the factors that determines the quality and reliability of the MBN analysis is the way information is extracted from the signal. Commonly, simple scalar parameters are used to characterize the information content, such as amplitude maxima and signal root mean square. This paper presents a new approach based on the time-frequency analysis. The experimental test case relates the use of MBN signals to characterize hardness gradients in a AISI4140 steel. To that purpose different time-frequency (TFR) and time-scale (TSR) representations such as the spectrogram, the Wigner-Ville distribution, the Capongram, the ARgram obtained from an AutoRegressive model, the scalogram, and the Mellingram obtained from a Mellin transform are assessed. It is shown that, due to nonstationary characteristics of the MBN, TFRs can provide a rich and new panorama of these signals. Extraction techniques of some time-frequency parameters are used to allow a diagnostic process. Comparison with results obtained by the classical method highlights the improvement on the diagnosis provided by the method proposed.

Effect of Fill Time on the Performance of Pilot-scale ASBR and AnSBBR Applied to Sanitary Wastewater Treatment

Many lab-scale studies have been carried out regarding the effect of feed strategy on the performance of anaerobic sequencing batch reactors (ASBR); however, more detailed pilot-scale studies should be performed to assess the real applicability of this type of operation. Therefore, the objective of this work was to assess the effect of feed strategy or fill time in a 1-m(3) mechanically stirred pilot-scale sequencing batch reactor, treating 0.65 m(3) sanitary wastewater in 8-h cycles at ambient temperature. Two reactor configurations were used: one containing granular biomass (denominated ASBR) and the other immobilized biomass on polyurethane foam as inert support (denominated anaerobic sequencing batch biofilm reactor (AnSBBR)). The reactors were operated under five distinct feed strategies, namely: typical batch and fed-batch for 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% of the cycle length. Stirring frequency in the ASBR was 40 rpm with two flat-blade turbine impellers and 80 rpm in the AnSBBR with two helix impellers. The results showed that both the ASBR and AnSBBR when operated under typical batch, fed-batch for 50% and 75% of the cycle length, presented improved organic matter removal efficiencies, without significant differences in performance, thus showing important operational flexibility. In addition, the reactors presented operation stability under all conditions.

Diagnostic errors and repetitive sequential classifications in on-line process control by attributes

The procedure of on-line process control by attributes, known as Taguchi`s on-line process control, consists of inspecting the mth item (a single item) at every m produced items and deciding, at each inspection, whether the fraction of conforming items was reduced or not. If the inspected item is nonconforming, the production is stopped for adjustment. As the inspection system can be subject to diagnosis errors, one develops a probabilistic model that classifies repeatedly the examined item until a conforming or b non-conforming classification is observed. The first event that occurs (a conforming classifications or b non-conforming classifications) determines the final classification of the examined item. Proprieties of an ergodic Markov chain were used to get the expression of average cost of the system of control, which can be optimized by three parameters: the sampling interval of the inspections (m); the number of repeated conforming classifications (a); and the number of repeated non-conforming classifications (b). The optimum design is compared with two alternative approaches: the first one consists of a simple preventive policy. The production system is adjusted at every n produced items (no inspection is performed). The second classifies the examined item repeatedly r (fixed) times and considers it conforming if most classification results are conforming. Results indicate that the current proposal performs better than the procedure that fixes the number of repeated classifications and classifies the examined item as conforming if most classifications were conforming. On the other hand, the preventive policy can be averagely the most economical alternative rather than those ones that require inspection depending on the degree of errors and costs. A numerical example illustrates the proposed procedure. (C) 2009 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.