Comparison of clinical and angiographic prognostic risk scores in elderly patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome and referred for percutaneous coronary intervention.

BACKGROUND: Multiple risk prediction models have been validated in all-age patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI); however, they have not been validated specifically in the elderly. METHODS: We calculated the GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) score, the logistic EuroSCORE, the AMIS (Acute Myocardial Infarction Swiss registry) score, and the SYNTAX (Synergy between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention with TAXUS and Cardiac Surgery) score in a consecutive series of 114 patients ≥75 years presenting with ACS and treated with PCI within 24 hours of hospital admission. Patients were stratified according to score tertiles and analysed retrospectively by comparing the lower/mid tertiles as an aggregate group with the higher tertile group. The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality. Secondary endpoints were the composite of death and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) at 30 days, and 1-year MACE-free survival. Model discrimination ability was assessed using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: Thirty-day mortality was higher in the upper tertile compared with the aggregate lower/mid tertiles according to the logistic EuroSCORE (42% vs 5%; odds ratio [OR] = 14, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 4-48; p <0.001; AUC = 0.79), the GRACE score (40% vs 4%; OR = 17, 95% CI = 4-64; p <0.001; AUC = 0.80), the AMIS score (40% vs 4%; OR = 16, 95% CI = 4-63; p <0.001; AUC = 0.80), and the SYNTAX score (37% vs 5%; OR = 11, 95% CI = 3-37; p <0.001; AUC = 0.77). CONCLUSIONS: In elderly patients presenting with ACS and referred to PCI within 24 hours of admission, the GRACE score, the EuroSCORE, the AMIS score, and the SYNTAX score predicted 30 day mortality. The predictive value of clinical scores was improved by using them in combination.

Utility scores associated with the world health organisation drinking risk-level classification in alcohol dependence

BACKGROUND: Extensive research exists estimating the effect hazardous alcohol¦use on morbidity and mortality, but little research quantifies the association between¦alcohol consumption and utility scores in patients with alcohol dependence.¦In the context of comparative research, the World Health Organisation (WHO)¦proposed to categorise the risk for alcohol-related acute and chronic harm according¦to patients' average daily alcohol consumption. OBJECTIVES: To estimate utility¦scores associated with each category of the WHO drinking risk-level classification¦in patients with alcohol dependence (AD). METHODS: We used data from¦CONTROL, an observational cohort study including 143 AD patients from the Alcohol¦Treatment Center at Lausanne University Hospital, followed for 12 months.¦Average daily alcohol consumption was assessed monthly using the Timeline Follow-¦back method and patients were categorised according to the WHO drinking¦risk-level classification: abstinent, low, medium, high and very high. Other measures¦as sociodemographic characteristics and utility scores derived from the EuroQoL¦5-Dimensions questionnaire (EQ-5D) were collected every three months.¦Mixed models for repeated measures were used to estimate mean utility scores¦associated with WHO drinking risk-level categories. RESULTS: A total of 143 patients¦were included and the 12-month follow-up permitting the assessment of¦1318 person-months. At baseline the mean age of the patients was 44.6 (SD 11.8)¦and the majority of patients was male (63.6%). Using repeated measures analysis,¦utility scores decreased with increasing drinking levels, ranging from 0.80 in abstinent¦patients to 0.62 in patients with very high risk drinking level (p_0.0001).¦CONCLUSIONS: In this sample of patients with alcohol dependence undergoing¦specialized care, utility scores estimated from the EQ-5D appeared to substantially¦and consistently vary according to patients' WHO drinking level.

Scores composites CHC pour le WISC-IV: Normes Francophones

Bien que le manuel du WISC-IV fasse référence à la théorie de Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC), les indices calculés à partir de cette batterie (ICV, IRP, IMT et IVT) n'ont pas été définis sur la base du modèle CHC. Afin d'apporter un éclairage complémentaire sur les performances observées, nous recommandons néanmoins d'examiner les scores des subtests du WISC-IV en référence à la nomenclature des aptitudes cognitives proposées dans le modèle CHC. La première partie de cet article présente les normes francophones pour cinq facteurs CHC du WISC-IV, à savoir le raisonnement fluide (Gf), compréhension-connaissances (Gc), le traitement visuel (Gv), la mémoire à court terme (Gsm) et la vitesse de traitement (Gs), établies en utilisant une procédure d'approximation statistique. La seconde partie présente l'examen de la validité de ces normes, confrontées à des données recueillies sur un échantillon de 250 enfants. Nos résultats montrent que les corrélations entre les indices classiques du WISC-IV (ICV, IRP, IMT et IVT) et les scores composites CHC sont élevées, attestant de la validité des scores CHC. Ces normes permettent de calculer et d'utiliser les scores composites CHC en complément des indices standard, dans le cadre d'analyses normatives et ipsatives.

LSI-R Scores: Change Matters, Data Download, Iowa Department of Corrections, April 2009

Past studies have shown the LSI-R risk assessment tool to be accurate in assessing the risk level of Iowa offenders. A more recent study, conducted by the University of Cincinnati, showed that a reduction in the LSI-R score over time results in a lower risk that an Iowa offender will reoffend.

LSI-R Scores: Change Matters - Part II, Data Download, Iowa Department of Corrections

In the last issue of the Data Download, we discussed that overall, a 10% drop in LSI-R scores for our highest risk offenders was associated with a 6% reduction in recidivism. However, LSI-R score reductions for the lowest risk offenders don't substantially affect their already low recidivism rates. The issue contained charts that showed this held true for both probationers and parolees. The charts below show that change also matters for women offenders and African-American offenders.

LSI-R Scores: Change Matters - Part III, Data Download, Iowa Department of Corrections, June 2009

In this issue, we take a closer look at the individual risk factors measured by the LSI-R. There are several risk factors that the LSI-R assessment tool measures: Criminal History; Education/Employment; Financial; Family/Marital; Accommodations (Living Situation); Leisure/Recreation; Companions; Alcohol/Drug Problem; Emotional/Personal; and Attitudes/Orientation.

Juvenile arthritis patients report favorable subjective outcomes of hip arthroplasty despite poor standard outcome scores.

We evaluated midterm patient-reported outcomes and satisfaction with total hip arthroplasty in patients who had severe juvenile idiopathic arthritis. Thirty-one patients (49 hips), with a mean age of 29 years (range, 16-43 years), reported low hip pain and stiffness at follow-up (mean, 7 years; range, 3-17 years). Up to 92% were satisfied with their ability to perform various activities; 96% were satisfied with pain relief. A mean postoperative flexion arc of 96° was observed. Final 36-Item Short Form Health Survey, EuroQol in 5 dimensions, Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index, and Harris Hip scores were lower than reference populations, particularly for mobility, physical functioning, and social functioning subscores. Young adults with end-stage hip involvement and severe longstanding juvenile idiopathic arthritis expressed high satisfaction with total hip arthroplasty, which improved range of motion, pain, and stiffness, despite poor performance on widely used outcome measures.

Accuracy of four cardiovascular risk scores in a Swiss population-based cohort

Purpose: To assess the global cardiovascular (CV) risk of an individual, several scores have been developed. However, their accuracy and comparability need to be evaluated in populations others from which they were derived. The aim of this study was to compare the predictive accuracy of 4 CV risk scores using data of a large population-based cohort. Methods: Prospective cohort study including 4980 participants (2698 women, mean age± SD: 52.7±10.8 years) in Lausanne, Switzerland followed for an average of 5.5 years (range 0.2 - 8.5). Two end points were assessed: 1) coronary heart disease (CHD), and 2) CV diseases (CVD). Four risk scores were compared: original and recalibrated Framingham coronary heart disease scores (1998 and 2001); original PROCAM score (2002) and its recalibrated version for Switzerland (IAS-AGLA); Reynolds risk score. Discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C statistics, model fitness using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and calibration using pseudo Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The sensitivity, specificity and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were assessed for each risk score using the highest risk category ([20+ % at 10 years) as the "positive" test. Results: Recalibrated and original 1998 and original 2001 Framingham scores show better discrimination (>0.720) and model fitness (low AIC) for CHD and CVD. All 4 scores are correctly calibrated (Chi2<20). The recalibrated Framingham 1998 score has the best sensitivities, 37.8% and 40.4%, for CHD and CVD, respectively. All scores present specificities >90%. Framingham 1998, PROCAM and IAS-AGLA scores include the greatest proportion of subjects (>200) in the high risk category whereas recalibrated Framingham 2001 and Reynolds include <=44 subjects. Conclusion: In this cohort, we see variations of accuracy between risk scores, the original Framingham 2001 score demonstrating the best compromise between its accuracy and its limited selection of subjects in the highest risk category. We advocate that national guidelines, based on independently validated data, take into account calibrated CV risk scores for their respective countries.

Looking for Validity or Testing It? The Perils of Stepwise Regression, Extreme-Scores Analysis, Heteroscedasticity, and Measurement Error

When researchers introduce a new test they have to demonstrate that it is valid, using unbiased designs and suitable statistical procedures. In this article we use Monte Carlo analyses to highlight how incorrect statistical procedures (i.e., stepwise regression, extreme scores analyses) or ignoring regression assumptions (e.g., heteroscedasticity) contribute to wrong validity estimates. Beyond these demonstrations, and as an example, we re-examined the results reported by Warwick, Nettelbeck, and Ward (2010) concerning the validity of the Ability Emotional Intelligence Measure (AEIM). Warwick et al. used the wrong statistical procedures to conclude that the AEIM was incrementally valid beyond intelligence and personality traits in predicting various outcomes. In our re-analysis, we found that the reliability-corrected multiple correlation of their measures with personality and intelligence was up to .69. Using robust statistical procedures and appropriate controls, we also found that the AEIM did not predict incremental variance in GPA, stress, loneliness, or well-being, demonstrating the importance for testing validity instead of looking for it.

Hémorragie digestive haute: utilité des scores pronostiques [Upper gastrointestinal bleeding: usefulness of prognostic scores].

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a potentially serious event, usually requiring urgent endoscopic treatment. Better stratification of the risk of complication or death could optimize management and improve patient outcomes, while ensuring adequate resource allocation. Several prognostic scores have been developed, in order to identify high risk patients, who require immediate treatment, and patients at low risk for whom endoscopy may be delayed. An ideal prognostic score should be accurate, simple, reproducible, and prospectively validated in different populations. Published scores meet these requirements only partially, and thus can only be used as part of an integrative diagnostic and therapeutic process.

Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage after stroke thrombolysis: comparison of prediction scores.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Several prognostic scores have been developed to predict the risk of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) after ischemic stroke thrombolysis. We compared the performance of these scores in a multicenter cohort. METHODS: We merged prospectively collected data of patients with consecutive ischemic stroke who received intravenous thrombolysis in 7 stroke centers. We identified and evaluated 6 scores that can provide an estimate of the risk of sICH in hyperacute settings: MSS (Multicenter Stroke Survey); HAT (Hemorrhage After Thrombolysis); SEDAN (blood sugar, early infarct signs, [hyper]dense cerebral artery sign, age, NIH Stroke Scale); GRASPS (glucose at presentation, race [Asian], age, sex [male], systolic blood pressure at presentation, and severity of stroke at presentation [NIH Stroke Scale]); SITS (Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke); and SPAN (stroke prognostication using age and NIH Stroke Scale)-100 positive index. We included only patients with available variables for all scores. We calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and also performed logistic regression and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. RESULTS: The final cohort comprised 3012 eligible patients, of whom 221 (7.3%) had sICH per National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, 141 (4.7%) per European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study II, and 86 (2.9%) per Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke criteria. The performance of the scores assessed with AUC-ROC for predicting European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study II sICH was: MSS, 0.63 (95% confidence interval, 0.58-0.68); HAT, 0.65 (0.60-0.70); SEDAN, 0.70 (0.66-0.73); GRASPS, 0.67 (0.62-0.72); SITS, 0.64 (0.59-0.69); and SPAN-100 positive index, 0.56 (0.50-0.61). SEDAN had significantly higher AUC-ROC values compared with all other scores, except for GRASPS where the difference was nonsignificant. SPAN-100 performed significantly worse compared with other scores. The discriminative ranking of the scores was the same for the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, and Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke definitions, with SEDAN performing best, GRASPS second, and SPAN-100 worst. CONCLUSIONS: SPAN-100 had the worst predictive power, and SEDAN constantly the highest predictive power. However, none of the scores had better than moderate performance.

Mining the human phenome using allelic scores that index biological intermediates.

It is common practice in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to focus on the relationship between disease risk and genetic variants one marker at a time. When relevant genes are identified it is often possible to implicate biological intermediates and pathways likely to be involved in disease aetiology. However, single genetic variants typically explain small amounts of disease risk. Our idea is to construct allelic scores that explain greater proportions of the variance in biological intermediates, and subsequently use these scores to data mine GWAS. To investigate the approach's properties, we indexed three biological intermediates where the results of large GWAS meta-analyses were available: body mass index, C-reactive protein and low density lipoprotein levels. We generated allelic scores in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, and in publicly available data from the first Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium. We compared the explanatory ability of allelic scores in terms of their capacity to proxy for the intermediate of interest, and the extent to which they associated with disease. We found that allelic scores derived from known variants and allelic scores derived from hundreds of thousands of genetic markers explained significant portions of the variance in biological intermediates of interest, and many of these scores showed expected correlations with disease. Genome-wide allelic scores however tended to lack specificity suggesting that they should be used with caution and perhaps only to proxy biological intermediates for which there are no known individual variants. Power calculations confirm the feasibility of extending our strategy to the analysis of tens of thousands of molecular phenotypes in large genome-wide meta-analyses. We conclude that our method represents a simple way in which potentially tens of thousands of molecular phenotypes could be screened for causal relationships with disease without having to expensively measure these variables in individual disease collections.