852 resultados para Objective risk
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Objective National guidelines for management of intermediate risk patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome, in whom AMI has been excluded, advocate provocative testing to final risk stratify these patients into low risk (negative testing) or high risk (positive testing suggestive of unstable angina). Adults less than 40 years have a low pretest probability of acute coronary syndrome. The utility of exercise stress testing in young adults with chest pain suspected of acute coronary syndrome who have National Heart Foundation intermediate risk features was evaluated Methods A retrospective analysis of exercise stress testing performed on patients less than 40 years was evaluated. Patients were enrolled on a chest pain pathway and had negative serial ECGs and cardiac biomarkers before exercise stress testing to rule-out acute coronary syndrome. Chart review was completed on patients with positive stress tests. Results The 3987 patients with suspected intermediate risk acute coronary syndrome underwent exercise stress testing. One thousand and twenty-seven (25.8%) were aged less than 40 years (age 33.3 ± 4.8 years). Four of these 1027 patients had a positive exercise stress test (0.4% incidence of positive exercise stress testing). Of those, three patients had subsequent non-invasive functional testing that yielded a negative result. One patient declined further investigations. Assuming this was a true positive exercise stress test, the incidence of true positive exercise stress testing would have been 0.097% (95% confidence interval: 0.079–0.115%) (one of 1027 patients). Conclusions Routine exercise stress testing has limited value in the risk stratification of adults less than 40 years with suspected intermediate risk of acute coronary syndrome
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Objective To identify the occupational risks for Australian paramedics, by describing the rate of injuries and fatalities and comparing those rates with other reports. Design and participants Retrospective descriptive study using data provided by Safe Work Australia for the period 2000–2010. The subjects were paramedics who had been injured in the course of their duties and for whom a claim had been made for workers compensation payments. Main outcome measures Rates of injury calculated from the data provided. Results The risk of serious injury among Australian paramedics was found to be more than seven times higher than the Australian national average. The fatality rate for paramedics was about six times higher than the national average. On average, every 2 years during the study period, one paramedic died and 30 were seriously injured in vehicle crashes. Ten Australian paramedics were seriously injured each year as a result of an assault. The injury rate for paramedics was more than two times higher than the rate for police officers. Conclusions The high rate of occupational injuries and fatalities among paramedics is a serious public health issue. The risk of injury in Australia is similar to that in the United States. While it may be anticipated that injury rates would be higher as a result of the nature of the work and environment of paramedics, further research is necessary to identify and validate the strategies required to minimise the rates of occupational injury for paramedics.
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Background Health risk behavior among young people is a public health problem in Vietnam. In addition, road traffic injuries are the leading cause of death for those aged 15–29 years. The consequences can be devastating for adolescents and their families, and can create a significant economic burden on society. Objective: The aim of this study was to identify protective and risk factors that may influence three health risk behaviors among school children: suicidal thinking (ST), drinking alcohol (DA), and underage motorbike driving (MD). Methods A cross-sectional survey of 972 adolescents (aged 12–15 years) was conducted in two secondary schools in Hanoi, Vietnam. The schools were purposely selected, one each from the inner city and a suburban area, from which classes (grade 6 to 8) were randomly selected. All students attending classes on survey days took part in the survey. The anonymous, self-completed questionnaire included measures of risk behavior, school connectedness, parental bonding, and other factors. Multivariable regression models were used to examine associations between the independent variables and the three health risk behaviors controlling for confounding factors. Results Young people in the inner city school reported a higher prevalence of all three risk behaviors than those in the suburban area (ST: 16.1% [95% confidence interval, or CI, 12.9–19.3] versus 4.6% [95% CI 2.7–6.5], p<0.001; DA: 20.3% [95% CI 16.8–23.8] versus 8.3% [95% CI 5.8–10.8], p<0.001, and MD: 10.1% [95% CI 7.4–12.8] versus 5.7% [95% CI 3.6–7.8], p<0.01). School connectedness and mother and father care appeared to be significant protective factors. For males, bullying in school was associated with suicidal thoughts, whereas for both males and females, school connectedness may be protective against suicidal ideation. Conclusion This study supports findings from other nations regarding suicidal thoughts and alcohol use, and appears to be one of the first to examine risk and protective factors forMD. Health promotion within schools should be introduced to improve students’ feelings of connectedness in combination with communication and education campaigns focusing on parental care and engaging teachers for the promotion of safer, supportive school environments.
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Background To date, no genome-wide association study (GWAS) has considered the combined phenotype of asthma with hay fever. Previous analyses of family data from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study provide evidence that this phenotype has a stronger genetic cause than asthma without hay fever. Objective We sought to perform a GWAS of asthma with hay fever to identify variants associated with having both diseases. Methods We performed a meta-analysis of GWASs comparing persons with both physician-diagnosed asthma and hay fever (n = 6,685) with persons with neither disease (n = 14,091). Results At genome-wide significance, we identified 11 independent variants associated with the risk of having asthma with hay fever, including 2 associations reaching this level of significance with allergic disease for the first time: ZBTB10 (rs7009110; odds ratio [OR], 1.14; P = 4 × 10−9) and CLEC16A (rs62026376; OR, 1.17; P = 1 × 10−8). The rs62026376:C allele associated with increased asthma with hay fever risk has been found to be associated also with decreased expression of the nearby DEXI gene in monocytes. The 11 variants were associated with the risk of asthma and hay fever separately, but the estimated associations with the individual phenotypes were weaker than with the combined asthma with hay fever phenotype. A variant near LRRC32 was a stronger risk factor for hay fever than for asthma, whereas the reverse was observed for variants in/near GSDMA and TSLP. Single nucleotide polymorphisms with suggestive evidence for association with asthma with hay fever risk included rs41295115 near IL2RA (OR, 1.28; P = 5 × 10−7) and rs76043829 in TNS1 (OR, 1.23; P = 2 × 10−6). Conclusion By focusing on the combined phenotype of asthma with hay fever, variants associated with the risk of allergic disease can be identified with greater efficiency.
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- Objective Driver sleepiness is a major crash risk factor, but may be under-recognized as a risky driving behavior. Sleepy driving is usually rated as less of a road safety issue than more well-known risky driving behaviors, such as drink driving and speeding. The objective of this study was to compare perception of crash risk of sleepy driving, drink driving, and speeding. - Methods In total, 300 Australian drivers completed a questionnaire that assessed crash risk perceptions for sleepy driving, drink driving, and speeding. Additionally, the participants perception of crash risk was assessed for five different contextual scenarios that included different levels of sleepiness (low, high), driving duration (short, long), and time of day/circadian influences (afternoon, night-time) of driving. - Results The analysis confirmed that sleepy driving was considered a risky driving behavior, but not as risky as high levels of speeding (p < .05). Yet, the risk of crashing at 4 am was considered as equally risky as low levels of speeding (10 km over the limit). The comparisons of the contextual scenarios revealed driving scenarios that would arguably be perceived as quite risky due to time of day/circadian influences were not reported as high risk. - Conclusions The results suggest a lack of awareness or appreciation of circadian rhythm functioning, particularly the descending phase of circadian rhythm that promotes increased sleepiness in the afternoon and during the early hours of the morning. Yet, the results suggested an appreciation of the danger associated with long distance driving and driver sleepiness. Further efforts are required to improve the community’s awareness of the impairing effects from sleepiness and in particular, knowledge regarding the human circadian rhythm and the increased sleep propensity during the circadian nadir.
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Purpose: It is common for head and neck patients to be affected by time trend errors as a result of weight loss during a course of radiation treatment. The objective of this planning study was to investigate the impact of weight loss on Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy (VMAT) as well as Intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) for locally advanced head and neck cancer using automatic co-registration of the CBCT. Methods and Materials: A retrospective analysis of previously treated IMRT plans for 10 patients with locally advanced head and neck cancer patients was done. A VMAT plan was also produced for all patients. We calculated the dose–volume histograms (DVH) indices for spinal cord planning at risk volumes (PRVs), the brainstem PRVs (SC+0.5cm and BS+0.5cm, respectively) as well as mean dose to the parotid glands. Results: The results show that the mean difference in dose to the SC+0.5cm was 1.03% and 1.27% for the IMRT and VMAT plans, respectively. As for dose to the BS+0.5, the percentage difference was 0.63% for the IMRT plans and 0.61% for the VMAT plans. The analysis of the parotid gland doses shows that the percentage change in mean dose to left parotid was -8.0% whereas that of the right parotid was -6.4% for the IMRT treatment plans. In the VMAT plans, the percentages change for the left and the right parotid glands were -6.6% and -6.7% respectively. Conclusions: This study shows a clinically significant impact of weight loss on DVH indices analysed in head and neck organs at risk. It highlights the importance of adaptive radiotherapy in head and neck patients if organ at risk sparing is to be maintained.
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Objective This prospective longitudinal study aims to determine the risk factors of wandering-related adverse consequences in community-dwelling persons with mild dementia. These adverse consequences include negative outcomes of wandering (falls, fractures, and injuries) and eloping behavior. Methods We recruited 143 dyads of persons with mild dementia and their caregivers from a veteran's hospital and memory clinic in Florida. Wandering-related adverse consequences were measured using the Revised Algase Wandering Scale – Community Version. Variables such as personality (Big Five Inventory), behavioral response to stress, gait, and balance (Tinetti Gait and Balance), wayfinding ability (Wayfinding Effectiveness Scale), and neurocognitive abilities (attention, cognition, memory, language/verbal skills, and executive functioning) were also measured. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the predictors of these wandering-related adverse consequences. Results A total of 49% of the study participants had falls, fractures, and injuries due to wandering behavior, and 43.7% demonstrated eloping behaviors. Persistent walking (OR = 2.6) and poor gait (OR = 0.9) were significant predictors of negative outcomes of wandering, while persistent walking (OR = 13.2) and passivity (OR = 2.55) predicted eloping behavior. However, there were no correlations between wandering-related adverse consequences and participants' characteristics (age, gender, race, ethnicity, and education), health status (Charlson comorbidity index), or neurocognitive abilities. Conclusion Our results highlight the importance of identifying at-risk individuals so that effective interventions can be developed to reduce or prevent the adverse consequences of wandering.
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While the method using specialist herbivores in managing invasive plants (classical biological control) is regarded as relatively safe and cost-effective in comparison to other methods of management, the rarity of strict monophagy among insect herbivores illustrates that, like any management option, biological control is not risk-free. The challenge for classical biological control is therefore to predict risks and benefits a priori. In this study we develop a simulation model that may aid in this process. We use this model to predict the risks and benefits of introducing the chrysomelid beetle Charidotis auroguttata to manage the invasive liana Macfadyena unguis-cati in Australia. Preliminary host-specificity testing of this herbivore indicated that there was limited feeding on a non-target plant, although the non-target was only able to sustain some transitions of the life cycle of the herbivore. The model includes herbivore, target and non-target life history and incorporates spillover dynamics of populations of this herbivore from the target to the non-target under a variety of scenarios. Data from studies of this herbivore in the native range and under quarantine were used to parameterize the model and predict the relative risks and benefits of this herbivore when the target and non-target plants co-occur. Key model outputs include population dynamics on target (apparent benefit) and non-target (apparent risk) and fitness consequences to the target (actual benefit) and non-target plant (actual risk) of herbivore damage. The model predicted that risk to the non-target became unacceptable (i.e. significant negative effects on fitness) when the ratio of target to non-target in a given patch ranged from 1:1 to 3:2. By comparing the current known distribution of the non-target and the predicted distribution of the target we were able to identify regions in Australia where the agent may be pose an unacceptable risk. By considering risk and benefit simultaneously, we highlight how such a simulation modelling approach can assist scientists and regulators in making more objective decisions a priori, on the value of releasing specialist herbivores as biological control agents.
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Objective: To examine the association between preoperative quality of life (QoL) and postoperative adverse events in women treated for endometrial cancer. Methods: 760 women with apparent Stage I endometrial cancer were randomised into a clinical trial evaluating laparoscopic versus open surgery. This analysis includes women with preoperative QoL measurements, from the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy- General (FACT-G) questionnaire, and who were followed up for at least 6 weeks after surgery (n=684). The outcomes for this study were defined as (1) the occurrence of moderate to severe AEs adverse events within 6 months (Common Toxicology Criteria (CTC) grade ≥3); and (2) any Serious Adverse Event (SAE). The association between preoperative QoL and the occurrence of AE was examined, after controlling for baseline comorbidity and other factors. Results: After adjusting for other factors, odds of occurrence of AE of CTC grade ≥3 were significantly increased with each unit decrease in baseline FACT-G score (OR=1.02, 95% CI 1.00-1.03, p=0.030), which was driven by physical well-being (PWB) (OR=1.09, 95% CI 1.04-1.13, p=0.0002) and functional well-being subscales (FWB) (OR=1.04, 95% CI 1.00-1.07, p=0.035). Similarly, odds of SAE occurrence were significantly increased with each unit decrease in baseline FACT-G score (OR=1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.04, p=0.011), baseline PWB (OR=1.11, 95% CI 1.06-1.16, p<0.0001) or baseline FWB subscales (OR=1.05, 95% CI 1.01-1.10, p=0.0077). Conclusion: Women with early endometrial cancer presenting with lower QoL prior to surgery are at higher risk of developing a serious adverse event following surgery. Funding: Cancer Council Queensland, Cancer Council New South Wales, Cancer Council Victoria, Cancer Council, Western Australia; NHMRC project grant 456110; Cancer Australia project grant 631523; The Women and Infants Research Foundation, Western Australia; Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital Foundation; Wesley Research Institute; Gallipoli Research Foundation; Gynetech; TYCO Healthcare, Australia; Johnson and Johnson Medical, Australia; Hunter New England Centre for Gynaecological Cancer; Genesis Oncology Trust; and Smart Health Research Grant QLD Health.
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There is some evidence that self-rated perceptions of health are predictive of objective health outcomes, including cardiovascular disease, and mortality. The objective of this study was to examine the prospective association between perceptions of health during pregnancy and cardiovascular risk factors of mothers 21 years after the pregnancy. Data used were from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy (MUSP), a community-based prospective birth cohort study begun in Brisbane, Australia, in 1981. Logistic regression analyses were conducted. Data were available for 3692 women. Women who perceived themselves as not having a straight forward pregnancy had twice the odds (adjusted OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1–3.8) of being diagnosed with heart disease 21 years after the pregnancy when compared with women with a straight forward pregnancy (event rate of 5.2 versus 2.6%). Women who experienced complications (other than serious pregnancy complications) during their pregnancy were also at 30% increased odds (adjusted OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0–1.6) of having hypertension 21years later (event rate of 25.7 versus 20%). As a whole, our study sug- gests that pregnant women who perceived that they had complications and did not have a straight forward preg- nancy were likely to experience poorer cardiovascular outcomes 21years after that pregnancy.
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Type 2 diabetes is one of the diseases that largely determined by lifestyle factors. Coffee is one of the most consumed beverages in the world and recently released data suggest the effects of coffee consumption on type 2 diabetes. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the effects of habitual coffee consumption on various aspects of type 2 diabetes and its most common complications. This study is part of the national FINRISK studies. Baseline surveys were carried out between 1972 and 1997. The surveys covered two eastern regions in 1972 and 1977, but were expanded to include a third region in southwestern Finland in 1982, 1987, 1992, and 1997. The Helsinki capital area was included in the survey in 1992 and 1997 and the Oulu province, in northern Finland, in 1997. Each survey was drawn from an independent random sample of the national register of subjects aged 25-64. In 1997, an additional sample of subjects aged 65-74 was conducted. The blood pressure, weight, and height of subjects were measured. By using self-administered questionnaires data were collected on medical history, socioeconomic factors, physical activity, smoking habits, and alcohol, coffee, and tea consumption. Higher coffee consumption was associated with higher body mass index, occupational physical activity and cigarette smoking, and lower blood pressure, education level, leisure time physical activity, tea consumption and alcohol use. Age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure and current smoking were positively associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes, however, education, and occupational, commuting and leisure time physical activity were inversely associated. The significant inverse association between coffee consumption and the risk of type 2 diabetes was found in both sexes but the association was stronger in women. Coffee consumption was significantly and inversely associated with fasting glucose, 2-hour plasma glucose, fasting insulin, impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose regulation, and hyperinsulinemia among both men and women and with isolated impaired glucose tolerance among women. Serum gamma-glutamyltransferase modified the association between coffee consumption and incident diabetes. Among subjects with high serum -glutamyltransferase (>75th percentile), coffee consumption showed an inverse association for women, as well as men and women combined. An inverse association also occurred between coffee consumption and the risk of total, cardiovascular disease, and coronary heart disease mortality among patients with type 2 diabetes. The results of this study showed that habitual coffee consumption may be associated with a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes. Coffee consumption may have some effects on several markers of glycemia, and may lower the incident of type 2 diabetes in high normal serum -glutamyltransferase levels. Total, cardiovascular disease, and coronary heart disease mortality rate among subjects with type 2 diabetes may also be reduced by coffee consumption.
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The overall objective of this study was to gain epidemiological knowledge about pain among employee populations. More specifically, the aims were to assess the prevalence of pain, to identify socio-economic risk groups and work-related psychosocial risk factors, and to assess the consequences in terms of health-related functioning and sickness absence. The study was carried out among the municipal employees of the City of Helsinki. Data comprised questionnaire survey conducted in years 2000-2002 and register data on sickness absence. Altogether 8960 40-60 year old employees participated to the survey (response rate 67%). Pain is common among ageing employees. Approximately 29 per cent of employees reported chronic pain and 15 per cent acute pain, and about seven per cent reported moderately or severely limiting disabling chronic pain. Pain was more common among those with lower level of education or in a low occupational class. -- Psychosocial work environment was associated with pain reports. Job strain, bullying at workplace, and problems in combining work and home duties were associated with pain among women. Among men combining work and home duties was not associated with pain, whereas organizational injustice showed associations. Pain affects functional capacity and predicts sickness absence. Those with pain reported lower level of both mental and physical functioning than those with no pain, physical functioning being more strongly affected than mental. Bodily location of pain or whether pain was acute or chronic had only minor impact on the variation in functioning, whereas the simple count of painful locations was associated with widest variation. Pain accounted for eight per cent of short term (1-3 day) sickness absence spells among men and 13 per cent among women. Of absence spells lasting between four and 14 days pain accounted for 23 per cent among women and 25 per cent among men, corresponding figures for over 14 day absence spells being 37 and 30 per cent. The association between pain and sickness absence was relatively independent of physical and psychosocial work factors, especially among women. The results of this study provide a picture of the epidemiology of pain among employees. Pain is a significant problem that seriously affects work ability. Information on risk groups can be utilized to make prevention measures more effective among those at high risk, and to decrease pain rates and thereby narrow the differences between socio-economic groups. Furthermore, the work-related psychosocial risk factors identified in this study are potentially modifiable, and it should be possible to target interventions on decreasing pain rates among employees.
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OBJECTIVE: The study of ethnically homogeneous populations may help to identify schizophrenia risk loci. The authors conducted a genomewide linkage scan for schizophrenia in an Indian population. METHOD: Participants were 441 individuals (262 affected probands and siblings) who were recruited primarily from one ethnically homogeneous group, the Tamil Brahmin caste, although individuals from other geographically proximal castes also participated. Genotyping of 124 affected sibling pair pedigrees was performed with 402 short tandem repeat polymorphisms. Linkage analyses were conducted using nonparametric exponential LOD (logarithm of the odds ratio for linkage) scores and parametric heterogeneity LOD scores. Parametric heterogeneity scores were calculated using simple dominant and recessive models, correcting for multiple statistics. The data were examined for evidence of consanguinity. Genomewide significance levels were determined using 10,000 gene dropping simulations. RESULTS: These findings revealed genomewide significant linkage to chromosome 1p31.1, through the use of both exponential and heterogeneity LOD scores, incorporating correction for multiple statistics and mild consanguinity. The estimated sibling recurrence risk associated with this putative locus was 1.95. Analysis for heterogeneity LOD scores also detected suggestive linkage to chromosomes 13q22.1 and 16q12.2. Using 117 tag single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), family-based association analyses of phosphodiesterase 4B (PDE4B), the closest schizophrenia candidate gene, detected no convincing evidence of association, suggesting that the chromosome 1 peak represents a novel risk locus. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study-to the authors' knowledge-to report significant linkage of schizophrenia to chromosome 1p31.1. Further investigation of this chromosome region in diverse populations is warranted to identify underlying sequence variants.
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Objective To investigate the epidemic characteristics of human cutaneous anthrax (CA) in China, detect the spatiotemporal clusters at the county level for preemptive public health interventions, and evaluate the differences in the epidemiological characteristics within and outside clusters. Methods CA cases reported during 2005–2012 from the national surveillance system were evaluated at the county level using space-time scan statistic. Comparative analysis of the epidemic characteristics within and outside identified clusters was performed using using the χ2 test or Kruskal-Wallis test. Results The group of 30–39 years had the highest incidence of CA, and the fatality rate increased with age, with persons ≥70 years showing a fatality rate of 4.04%. Seasonality analysis showed that most of CA cases occurred between May/June and September/October of each year. The primary spatiotemporal cluster contained 19 counties from June 2006 to May 2010, and it was mainly located straddling the borders of Sichuan, Gansu, and Qinghai provinces. In these high-risk areas, CA cases were predominantly found among younger, local, males, shepherds, who were living on agriculture and stockbreeding and characterized with high morbidity, low mortality and a shorter period from illness onset to diagnosis. Conclusion CA was geographically and persistently clustered in the Southwestern China during 2005–2012, with notable differences in the epidemic characteristics within and outside spatiotemporal clusters; this demonstrates the necessity for CA interventions such as enhanced surveillance, health education, mandatory and standard decontamination or disinfection procedures to be geographically targeted to the areas identified in this study.
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Uncertainty plays an important role in water quality management problems. The major sources of uncertainty in a water quality management problem are the random nature of hydrologic variables and imprecision (fuzziness) associated with goals of the dischargers and pollution control agencies (PCA). Many Waste Load Allocation (WLA)problems are solved by considering these two sources of uncertainty. Apart from randomness and fuzziness, missing data in the time series of a hydrologic variable may result in additional uncertainty due to partial ignorance. These uncertainties render the input parameters as imprecise parameters in water quality decision making. In this paper an Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) is developed for water quality management of a river system subject to uncertainty arising from partial ignorance. In a WLA problem, both randomness and imprecision can be addressed simultaneously by fuzzy risk of low water quality. A methodology is developed for the computation of imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality, when the parameters are characterized by uncertainty due to partial ignorance. A Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality by considering the input variables as imprecise. Fuzzy multiobjective optimization is used to formulate the multiobjective model. The model developed is based on a fuzzy multiobjective optimization problem with max-min as the operator. This usually does not result in a unique solution but gives multiple solutions. Two optimization models are developed to capture all the decision alternatives or multiple solutions. The objective of the two optimization models is to obtain a range of fractional removal levels for the dischargers, such that the resultant fuzzy risk will be within acceptable limits. Specification of a range for fractional removal levels enhances flexibility in decision making. The methodology is demonstrated with a case study of the Tunga-Bhadra river system in India.