The long-term EU budget: size or flexibility? Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/20, November 2012

The EU is in the process of negotiating its 2014-20 financial framework. Failure to reach an agreement would imply a delay in the preparation of the strategic plans each member state puts together to explain how it will use Structural and Cohesion Funds. Even if solutions are found – for example annual renewals of the budget based on the previous year's figures – there will be political and institutional costs. EU leaders have too often and too forcefully advocated the use of the EU budget for growth to be able to drop the idea without consequences. • The overwhelming attention paid to the size of the budget is misplaced. EU leaders should instead aim to make the EU budget more flexible, safeguard it from future political power struggles, and reinforce assessment of the impact of EU funded growth policies. • To improve flexibility a commitment device should be created that places the EU budget above continuous political disagreement. We suggest the creation of a European Growth Fund, on the basis of which the European Commission should be allowed to borrow on capital markets to anticipate pre-allocated EU expenditure, such as Structural and Cohesion Funds. Markets would thus be a factor in EU budget policymaking, with a potentially disciplining effect. Attaching conditionality to this type of disbursement appears legitimate, as capital delivered in this way is a form of assistance.

On the long-term interannual variability of the east Asian winter monsoon

The East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) and Siberian High (SH) are inherently related, based on prior studies of instrumental data available for recent decades (since 1958). Here we develop an extended instrumental EAWM index since 1871 that correlates significantly with the SH. These two indices show common modes of variation on the biennial (2-3 year) time scale. We also develop an index of the pressure gradient between the SH and the Aleutian Low, a gradient which critically impacts EAWM variability. This difference series, based on tree-ring reconstructions of the SH and the North Pacific Index (NPI) over the past 400 years, shows that the weakening of this gradient in recent decades has not been unusual in a long-term context. Correlations between the SH series and a tree-ring reconstruction of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) suggest a variable tropical-higher latitude teleconnection.

Suitability of cryopreservation for the long-term storage of rare and endangered plant species: a case history for Cosmos atrosanguineus

The suitability of cryopreservation for the secure, long-term storage of the rare and endangered species Cosmos atrosanguineus was investigated. Using encapsulation/dehydration of shoot tips in alginate strips, survival rates of up to 100 % and shoot regeneration of up to 35 % were achieved. Light and electron microscopy studies indicated that cellular damage to some regions of the shoot tip during the freeze/thaw procedure was high, although cell survival in and around the meristematic region allowed shoot tip regeneration. The genetic fingerprinting technique, amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs), showed that no detectable genetic variation was present between material of C. atrosanguineus at the time of initiation into tissue culture and that which had been cryopreserved, stored in liquid nitrogen for 12 months and regenerated. Wearied plantlets that were grown under glasshouse conditions exhibited no morphological variation from non-frozen controls. (C) 2003 Annals of Botany Company.

The long-term effect of active immunization against inhibin in goats

This experiment addresses the long-term effect of active immunization of goats against a recombinant ovine inhibin alpha subunit (roIHN-alpha). In late anestrus 100 mu g of roINH-alpha was administered to 40 pluriparous Boer goat does, followed, 4 weeks later, by a booster injection. Weekly blood samples were drawn to monitor the inhibin binding capacity with the aid of a radio-tracer binding assay. From the onset until 48 h after the end of each estrus, follicular development and ovulation rate were monitored at 24 h intervals by transrectal ultrasonography. Beginning in August and continuing into January, does were mated at every other estrus, and submitted to transcervical embryo collection. Seven months after the first immunization, the does were mated again and permitted to carry to term. All immunized does produced inhibin antibodies, an elevated titre being first detected 2 weeks after primary immunization. Maximum titres were reached after 6 weeks, i.e. 2 weeks after the booster injection. Thereafter, in the course of the following 32 weeks, the titre subsided gradually. The does started cycling by mid-August. At that stage the average number of follicles more than 4 mm in diameter, ovulations and total embryos and ova recovered were 14.7 (+/- 2.3), 5.3 (+/- 0.7) and 4.4 (+/- 1.0), respectively. A steady decline followed and in January the corresponding means were: 5.2 (+/- 0.6) follicles, 3.1 (+/- 0.6) ovulations and 1.2 (+/- 0.4) embryos and ova recovered. When mated toward the end of the breeding season, 85% of the does became pregnant to the first mating and 73% went to term. Healthy kids were born, the average litter size being 2.2 (+/- 0.1). In conclusion, immunization of goats against a recombinant inhibin alpha-subunit proved to be a practicable means of producing embryos for transfer purposes. After about half a year, when the inhibin antibody titre has subsided, it is possible to return the does to the breeding flock without risking complications with normal breeding activity. (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Suitability of cryopreservation for the long-term storage of rare and endangered plant species: a case history for cosmos atrosanguineus

The suitability of cryopreservation for the secure, long-term storage of the rare and endangered species Cosmos atrosanguineus was investigated. Using encapsulation/dehydration of shoot tips in alginate strips, survival rates of up to 100 % and shoot regeneration of up to 35 % were achieved. Light and electron microscopy studies indicated that cellular damage to some regions of the shoot tip during the freeze/thaw procedure was high, although cell survival in and around the meristematic region allowed shoot tip regeneration. The genetic fingerprinting technique, amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs), showed that no detectable genetic variation was present between material of C. atrosanguineus at the time of initiation into tissue culture and that which had been cryopreserved, stored in liquid nitrogen for 12 months and regenerated. Weaned plantlets that were grown under glasshouse conditions exhibited no morphological variation from non-frozen controls.

Model inter-comparison between statistical and dynamic model assessments of the long-term stability of blanket peat in Great Britain (1940-2099)

We compared output from 3 dynamic process-based models (DMs: ECOSSE, MILLENNIA and the Durham Carbon Model) and 9 bioclimatic envelope models (BCEMs; including BBOG ensemble and PEATSTASH) ranging from simple threshold to semi-process-based models. Model simulations were run at 4 British peatland sites using historical climate data and climate projections under a medium (A1B) emissions scenario from the 11-RCM (regional climate model) ensemble underpinning UKCP09. The models showed that blanket peatlands are vulnerable to projected climate change; however, predictions varied between models as well as between sites. All BCEMs predicted a shift from presence to absence of a climate associated with blanket peat, where the sites with the lowest total annual precipitation were closest to the presence/absence threshold. DMs showed a more variable response. ECOSSE predicted a decline in net C sink and shift to net C source by the end of this century. The Durham Carbon Model predicted a smaller decline in the net C sink strength, but no shift to net C source. MILLENNIA predicted a slight overall increase in the net C sink. In contrast to the BCEM projections, the DMs predicted that the sites with coolest temperatures and greatest total annual precipitation showed the largest change in carbon sinks. In this model inter-comparison, the greatest variation in model output in response to climate change projections was not between the BCEMs and DMs but between the DMs themselves, because of different approaches to modelling soil organic matter pools and decomposition amongst other processes. The difference in the sign of the response has major implications for future climate feedbacks, climate policy and peatland management. Enhanced data collection, in particular monitoring peatland response to current change, would significantly improve model development and projections of future change.

The long-term price-earnings ratio

price-earnings ratio;value premium;arbitrage trading rule;UK stock returns;contrarian investment Abstract:  The price-earnings effect has been thoroughly documented and is the subject of numerous academic studies. However, in existing research it has almost exclusively been calculated on the basis of the previous year's earnings. We show that the power of the effect has until now been seriously underestimated due to taking too short-term a view of earnings. Looking at all UK companies since 1975, using the traditional P/E ratio we find the difference in average annual returns between the value and glamour deciles to be 6%. This is similar to other authors' findings. We are able to almost double the value premium by calculating the P/E ratio using earnings averaged over the previous eight years.

Stomatal conductance and not stomatal density determines the long-term reduction in leaf transpiration of poplar in elevated CO2

Using a free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiment, poplar trees (Populus · euramericana clone I214) were exposed to either ambient or elevated [CO2] from planting, for a 5-year period during canopy development, closure, coppice and re-growth. In each year, measurements were taken of stomatal density (SD, number mm2) and stomatal index (SI, the proportion of epidermal cells forming stomata). In year 5, measurements were also taken of leaf stomatal conductance (gs, lmol m2 s1), photosynthetic CO2 fixation (A, mmol m2 s1), instantaneous water-use efficiency (A/E) and the ratio of intercellular to atmospheric CO2 (Ci:Ca). Elevated [CO2] caused reductions in SI in the first year, and in SD in the first 2 years, when the canopy was largely open. In following years, when the canopy had closed, elevated [CO2] had no detectable effects on stomatal numbers or index. In contrast, even after 5 years of exposure to elevated [CO2], gs was reduced, A/E was stimulated, and Ci:Ca was reduced relative to ambient [CO2]. These outcomes from the long-term realistic field conditions of this forest FACE experiment suggest that stomatal numbers (SD and SI) had no role in determining the improved instantaneous leaf-level efficiency of water use under elevated [CO2]. We propose that altered cuticular development during canopy closure may partially explain the changing response of stomata to elevated [CO2], although the mechanism for this remains obscure.