The Impact of Population Ageing on the Labour Market: Evidence from Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) Model of Scotland

This paper presents a dynamic Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) model of Scotland. The model is used to examine the impact of population ageing on the labour market. More specifically, it is used to evaluate the effects of labour force decline and labour force ageing on key macro-economic variables. The second effect is assumed to operate through age-specific productivity and labour force participation. In the analysis, particular attention is paid to how population ageing impinges on the government expenditure constraint. The basic structure of the model follows in the Auerbach and Kotlikoff tradition. However, the model takes into consideration directly age-specific mortality. This is analogous to “building in” a cohort-component population projection structure to the model, which allows more complex and more realistic demographic scenarios to be considered.

The Distribution Dynamics of Output Multipliers in Scotland 1998–2007

In an input-output context the impact of any particular industrial sector is commonly measured in terms of the output multiplier for that industry. Although such measures are routinely calculated and often used to guide regional industrial policy the behaviour of such measures over time is an area that has attracted little academic study. The output multipliers derived from any one table will have a distribution; for some industries the multiplier will be relatively high, for some it will be relatively low. The recentpublication of consistent input-output tables for the Scottish economy makes it possible to examine trends in this mdistribution over the ten year period 1998-2007. This is done by comparing the means and other summary measures of the distributions, the histograms and the cumulative densities. The results indicate a tendency for the multipliers to increase over the period. A Markov chain modelling approach suggests that this drift is a slow but long term phenomenon which appears not to tend to an equilibrium state. The prime reason for the increase in the output multipliers is traced to a decline in the relative importance of imported (both from the rest of the UK and the rest of the world) intermediate inputs used by Scottish industries. This suggests that models calibrated on the set of tables might have to be interpreted with caution.

Currency Issues and Options for an Independent Scotland

In this paper we take on the role of a ‘virtual consultant’ to a potentially independent Scotland. What should the exchange rate regime of an independent Scotland look like? We argue that the current proposal of the Scottish government to remain part of the sterling zone is doomed to failure, both because it falls short of a full political and monetary union and because it fails to recognize the reality of the Scottish economy post independence. We argue that the only tenable solution for an independent Scotland is to have a separate currency and for this currency to have some flexibility against Scotland’s main trading partners. One option offered here is managed float or crawl against a basket of currencies.

Picking the Right Budget Constraint for Scotland

This position paper considers the devolution of further fiscal powers to the Scottish Parliament in the context of the objectives and remit of the Smith Commission. The argument builds on our discussion of fiscal decentralization made in our previous published work on this topic. We ask what sort of budget constraint the Scottish Parliament should operate with. A soft budget constraint (SBC) allows the Scottish Parliament to spend without having to consider all of the tax and, therefore, political consequences, of that spending, which is effectively the position at the moment. The incentives to promote economic growth through fiscal policy – on both the tax and spending sides are weak to non-existent. This is what the Scotland Act, 1998, and the continuing use of the Barnett block grant, gave Scotland. Now other budget constraints are being discussed – those of the Calman Commission (2009) and the Scotland Act (2012), as well as the ones offered in 2014 by the various political parties – Scottish Conservatives, Scottish Greens, Scottish Labour, the Scottish Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Government. There is also the budget constraint designed by the Holtham Commission (2010) for Wales that could just as well be used in Scotland. We examine to what extent these offer the hard budget constraint (HBC) that would bring tax policy firmly into the realm of Scottish politics, asking the Scottish electorate and Parliament to consider the costs to them of increasing spending in terms of higher taxes; or the benefits to them of using public spending to grow the tax base and own-sourced taxes? The hardest budget constraint of all is offered by independence but, as is now known, a clear majority of those who voted in the referendum did not vote for this form of budget constraint. Rather they voted for a significant further devolution of fiscal powers while remaining within a political and monetary union with the rest of the UK, with the risk pooling and revenue sharing that this implies. It is not surprising therefore that none of the budget constraints on offer, apart from the SNP’s, come close to the HBC of independence. However, the almost 25% fall in the price of oil since the referendum, a resource stream so central to the SNP’s economic policy making, underscores why there is a need for a trade off between a HBC and risk pooling and revenue sharing. Ranked according to the desirable characteristic of offering something approaching a HBC the least desirable are those of the Calman Commission, the Scotland Act, 2012, and Scottish Labour. In all of these the ‘elasticity’ of the block grant in the face of failure to grow the Scottish tax base is either not defined or is very elastic – meaning that the risk of failure is shuffled off to taxpayers outside of Scotland. The degree of HBC in the Scottish Conservative, Scottish Greens and Scottish Liberal Democrats proposals are much more desirable from an economic growth point of view, the latter even embracing the HBC proposed by the Holtham Commission that combines serious tax policy with welfare support in the long-run. We judge that the budget constraint in the SNP’s proposals is too hard as it does not allow for continuation of the ‘welfare union’ in the UK. We also consider that in the case of a generalized UK economic slow requiring a fiscal stimulus that the Scottish Parliament be allowed increased borrowing to be repaid in the next economic upturn.

Gundlachia dutrae: n. sp. from northwest Brazil (Mollusca: Basommatophora: Ancylidae)

A new species of Gundlachia, Gundlachia dutrae is described from northwest Brazil. It is distinguishable from other congenerie species by characteristics of the shell, radula and internal organs. Shell relatively high. Aperture near-circular; periostracum dark brown without periostracal hairs. Apex slightly inclined to the right, projected but not hooked, with an apical depression surrounted by a sculpture of well-marked irregular punctations. Shell surface with prominent radial sculpture. No septate specimens were observed. Ratios (n= 59): shell width/shell lenght = 0,66- 0,79 (mean 0,73); shell height/shell length = 0,32- 0,45 ( mean 0,37); shell height/shell width = 0,43- 0,63 (mean 0,51). Body of normal ancylid type; mantle pigmentation dark brown or black, concentrated along the mantle collar. The dorsal surface of the right anterior muscle is elongated and medially constricted. The left anterior and the posterior muscles are almost elliptical. Adhesive area is V-shaped. Pseudobranch unpigmented bearing a very small and thin dorsal lobe. Ovotestis with more than 25 unbranched diverticula. Ovispermiduct with seminal vesicle rather developed. Elongated nidamental gland continous with the glandular wall of the uterus. Nidamental gland appendix ending into a bulbous swelling Spermathecal body almost rounded. Well-developed prostate with five long diverticula. Ejaculatory complex with long glandular flagellum, without a penis or true ultra-penis. "Penis sheath" developed. "Ultra-penis" projected as a tube inside the lumem of prepuce, with a slit between "ultra-penis" and "penis sheath". Rachidian tooth tetracuspid, with two median cusps assymmetrical and aculeated. Lateral teeth tricuspid, with a reduced endocon and a prominent mesocon. A well marked gap occurs between meso and ectocon. Marginal teeth similar to lateral ones. Jaw T-shaped, with about 28 dorsal plates.

Mortality counts and rates for injuries in Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland, England, Scotland and Wales

Number of deaths and age-standardised death rates by type of injury for the following regions and year of occurrence:Republic of Ireland 1982, 1983, 1995-2004Northern Ireland 1982, 1983, 1995-2002England 1996-2003Scotland 1982, 1983, 1995-2004Wales 1996-2003

Hospital admission counts and rates for injuries in Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland, England, Scotland and Wales

Number of hospital discharges and age-standardised discharge rates for emergency hospital admissions for injury by sex and type of injury for the following regions and year:Republic of Ireland 2006Northern Ireland 2006England 2006/07Scotland 2006/07Wales 2006 Numbers and rates are based on official hospital statistics from each region. All regions use International Classification of Disease (ICD) version 10 for hospital discharges in these years. Only emergency inpatient hospital spells with an ICD 10 code in the range S000-T739, T750-T759, T780-T789 (in any diagnostic position) and an ICD10 external cause code in the range V01-Y36 (in any diagnostic position) were included. A hospital spell is an unbroken period of time that a person spends as an inpatient in a hospital. The person may change consultant and/or specialty during a spell but is counted only once. See http://www.injuryobservatory.net/analysis-of-inpatient-admissions-data-f... for more details.

Continuity of Supply of the Home Oxygen Service in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland (PDF 96 KB)

Arrangements to support continuity of oxygen supply to patients using the NHS home oxygen service in the four countries within the United Kingdom

Involvement of Parachlamydia in bovine abortions in Scotland.

Bovine abortion represents a major animal welfare issue and a cause of substantial economic loss yet the rate of successful diagnosis remains low. Chlamydia-related organisms including Parachlamydia have recently emerged as putative cattle abortifacients. Placental tissue samples and fetal lung from bovine abortion submissions across Scotland in Spring 2011 were investigated by histopathology for the presence of suspect Chlamydia-related organisms. Evidence of Chlamydia-related organisms was observed in 21/113 (18.6%) placenta samples. Thirteen of the suspect cases and 18 histopathology negative cases were analysed by molecular and immunohistochemical methods. All samples were PCR positive for Parachlamydia but sequencing revealed high homology between identified environmental 16S sequences in all but three cases. Parachlamydial antigen was detected in 10/31 placental samples (32.2%) with pathology consistent with chlamydial infection. This work supports the need for further surveillance investigations and experimental studies to determine the role of Parachlamydia in bovine abortion.

Morphometric discrimination of females of five species of Anopheles of the subgenus Nyssorhynchus from Southern and Northwest Colombia

The most important vectors of human Plasmodium in the neotropics belong to the subgenus Nyssorhynchus. These species are generally sympatric in terms of their geographical distributions. Some are difficult to identify based solely on examination of adult females using the available morphological keys, in these cases examination of immature stages and male genitalia is required to make correct determinations. However, in epidemiological studies it is necessary to identify the species of adult females which are found near humans, i.e. in studies of malaria transmission or evaluation of control measures. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the discrimination of adult females of different species of Nyssorhynchus isolated mainly from Southern Colombia (department of Putumayo), using morphometric analysis. Adult females were obtained after rearing larvae collected in natural breeding places and from the progeny of females collected on humans. The morphological characteristics of the immature stages allowed the identification of four species of the subgroup Oswaldoi from Southern Colombia: Anopheles rangeli Gabaldon, Cova Garcia & Lopez, An. oswaldoi (Peryassu), An. benarrochi Gabaldon, Cova Garcia & Lopez and An. triannulatus (Neiva & Pinto). The species An. nuneztovari (Gabaldon) from the Northwest of Colombia was included for comparison. Morphometric analysis allowed differentiation of the females of all species to a confidence level approaching 90% using principal components analysis of 10 wing and leg variables, followed by canonical variate analysis of the first four principal components. We conclude that morphometrics may represent a useful taxonomic tool for this group and that its use should be further studied.

A Survey of NHS Services for Opiate Dependents in Scotland

The aim of this study was to investigate the range of opiates available within the Scottish NHS for patients with opiate dependancy and to assess the process underlying clinical decision-making. Clinicians, representitives of drug action teams and NHS personnel were apporached and semi-structured phone conversations were the primary means to elicit information. Whilst methadone is almost universally prescribed in Scotland, buprenorphine, dihydrocodeine (not currently licensed for opiate dependance management), lofexidine and naltrexone are also used. Alternative therapies are variably used.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

The Road to Recovery: A New Approach to Tackling Scotland's Drug Problem

The Scottish National Drugs Strategy requires the 22 regional Drug Action Teams to prepare and submit to the Scottish Executive annual action plans for tackling drug misuse in their areas. These plans should address national and local priorities, including their contribution to the achievement of national targets. These comprise three parts: Part A provides an overview of the DAT structures and working; Part B provides detailed information on current local services and Part C reports plans for 2003/04.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Effective services for substance misuse & homelessness in Scotland: The recommendations of the Advisory Group on Homelessness and Substance Misuse

The Group makes 12 recommendations for actions covering the two key themes of strategic and organisational responses, and service design and delivery. It calls for: * A joint strategic response at national level to be developed * A joint strategic response at a local level to be developed (responsibility sitting with Alcohol and Drug Partnerships (ADPs) * Recognition of the importance of investing to save over the long term * A joint operational response at local level to be developed * More flexible approaches in rural and island areas * Service development and commissioning to be based on evidence of good practice * An individual’s priorities to be the starting point for the design and delivery of services and support * Ongoing evaluation of services in this field to be managed through the ADP planning and monitoring processes * Targeted service user participation and involvement to be supported * Training across homelessness, housing, alcohol and drug fields to be supported in statutory and commissioned services * The stigmatisation of these populations to be addressed at a local and national level.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Association of the presence of residual anti-Toxoplasma gondii IgM in pregnant women and their respective family groups in Miracema, Northwest Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The seroprevalence of toxoplasmosis in 832 pregnant women in Miracema, Rio de Janeiro, was determined and 75.1% (625) and 2.0% (17) were anti-Toxoplasma gondii IgG and IgM positive, respectively. Out of the 17 IgM positive pregnant women, only one had low avidity IgG corresponding to the acute phase of the infection. All the other women presented with high avidity IgG and also presented with residual IgM anti-T. gondii. Of this sample, 106 received home visits (this includes 11 family nuclei of pregnant women with residual IgM anti-T. gondii, 68 nuclei of only IgG positive pregnant women and 27 nuclei of pregnant women with no antibodies to anti-T. gondii), resulting in 267 individuals visited. Out of these 267 individuals, 21 were positive for IgG and IgM anti-T. gondii and were candidates for the IgG avidity test. All of them presented with high avidity IgG and residual IgM. Five of these IgM+ individuals were (5/238; 2.1%) relatives of IgM negative pregnant women. The other 16 (16/29; 55.2%) were relatives of IgM+ pregnant women who were positive for residual IgM anti-T. gondii. This association was statistically significant (p = 0.0000). The analysis presented herein raises questions regarding the presence of residual IgM anti-T. gondii such as genetic determinants or even constant antigenic stimuli for the same family cluster.

The first record of Lutzomyia longipalpis in the Argentine northwest

In 2004, the urban presence of Lutzomyia longipalpis was recorded for the first time in Formosa province. In 2006, the first autochthonous case of human urban visceral leishmaniasis (VL) was recorded in Misiones in the presence of the vector, along with some canine VL cases. After this first case, the vector began to spread primarily in northeast Argentina. Between 2008-2011, three human VL cases were reported in Salta province, but the presence of Lu. longipalpis was not recorded. Captures of Phlebotominae were made in Tartagal, Salta, in 2013, and the presence of Lu. longipalpis was first recorded in northwest Argentina at that time. Systematic sampling is recommended to observe the distribution and dispersion patterns of Lu. longipalpis and consider the risk of VL transmission in the region.