LSI-R Scores: Change Matters, Data Download, Iowa Department of Corrections, April 2009

Past studies have shown the LSI-R risk assessment tool to be accurate in assessing the risk level of Iowa offenders. A more recent study, conducted by the University of Cincinnati, showed that a reduction in the LSI-R score over time results in a lower risk that an Iowa offender will reoffend.

LSI-R Scores: Change Matters - Part II, Data Download, Iowa Department of Corrections

In the last issue of the Data Download, we discussed that overall, a 10% drop in LSI-R scores for our highest risk offenders was associated with a 6% reduction in recidivism. However, LSI-R score reductions for the lowest risk offenders don't substantially affect their already low recidivism rates. The issue contained charts that showed this held true for both probationers and parolees. The charts below show that change also matters for women offenders and African-American offenders.

LSI-R Scores: Change Matters - Part III, Data Download, Iowa Department of Corrections, June 2009

In this issue, we take a closer look at the individual risk factors measured by the LSI-R. There are several risk factors that the LSI-R assessment tool measures: Criminal History; Education/Employment; Financial; Family/Marital; Accommodations (Living Situation); Leisure/Recreation; Companions; Alcohol/Drug Problem; Emotional/Personal; and Attitudes/Orientation.

Juvenile arthritis patients report favorable subjective outcomes of hip arthroplasty despite poor standard outcome scores.

We evaluated midterm patient-reported outcomes and satisfaction with total hip arthroplasty in patients who had severe juvenile idiopathic arthritis. Thirty-one patients (49 hips), with a mean age of 29 years (range, 16-43 years), reported low hip pain and stiffness at follow-up (mean, 7 years; range, 3-17 years). Up to 92% were satisfied with their ability to perform various activities; 96% were satisfied with pain relief. A mean postoperative flexion arc of 96° was observed. Final 36-Item Short Form Health Survey, EuroQol in 5 dimensions, Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index, and Harris Hip scores were lower than reference populations, particularly for mobility, physical functioning, and social functioning subscores. Young adults with end-stage hip involvement and severe longstanding juvenile idiopathic arthritis expressed high satisfaction with total hip arthroplasty, which improved range of motion, pain, and stiffness, despite poor performance on widely used outcome measures.

Accuracy of four cardiovascular risk scores in a Swiss population-based cohort

Purpose: To assess the global cardiovascular (CV) risk of an individual, several scores have been developed. However, their accuracy and comparability need to be evaluated in populations others from which they were derived. The aim of this study was to compare the predictive accuracy of 4 CV risk scores using data of a large population-based cohort. Methods: Prospective cohort study including 4980 participants (2698 women, mean age± SD: 52.7±10.8 years) in Lausanne, Switzerland followed for an average of 5.5 years (range 0.2 - 8.5). Two end points were assessed: 1) coronary heart disease (CHD), and 2) CV diseases (CVD). Four risk scores were compared: original and recalibrated Framingham coronary heart disease scores (1998 and 2001); original PROCAM score (2002) and its recalibrated version for Switzerland (IAS-AGLA); Reynolds risk score. Discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C statistics, model fitness using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and calibration using pseudo Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The sensitivity, specificity and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were assessed for each risk score using the highest risk category ([20+ % at 10 years) as the "positive" test. Results: Recalibrated and original 1998 and original 2001 Framingham scores show better discrimination (>0.720) and model fitness (low AIC) for CHD and CVD. All 4 scores are correctly calibrated (Chi2<20). The recalibrated Framingham 1998 score has the best sensitivities, 37.8% and 40.4%, for CHD and CVD, respectively. All scores present specificities >90%. Framingham 1998, PROCAM and IAS-AGLA scores include the greatest proportion of subjects (>200) in the high risk category whereas recalibrated Framingham 2001 and Reynolds include <=44 subjects. Conclusion: In this cohort, we see variations of accuracy between risk scores, the original Framingham 2001 score demonstrating the best compromise between its accuracy and its limited selection of subjects in the highest risk category. We advocate that national guidelines, based on independently validated data, take into account calibrated CV risk scores for their respective countries.

Looking for Validity or Testing It? The Perils of Stepwise Regression, Extreme-Scores Analysis, Heteroscedasticity, and Measurement Error

When researchers introduce a new test they have to demonstrate that it is valid, using unbiased designs and suitable statistical procedures. In this article we use Monte Carlo analyses to highlight how incorrect statistical procedures (i.e., stepwise regression, extreme scores analyses) or ignoring regression assumptions (e.g., heteroscedasticity) contribute to wrong validity estimates. Beyond these demonstrations, and as an example, we re-examined the results reported by Warwick, Nettelbeck, and Ward (2010) concerning the validity of the Ability Emotional Intelligence Measure (AEIM). Warwick et al. used the wrong statistical procedures to conclude that the AEIM was incrementally valid beyond intelligence and personality traits in predicting various outcomes. In our re-analysis, we found that the reliability-corrected multiple correlation of their measures with personality and intelligence was up to .69. Using robust statistical procedures and appropriate controls, we also found that the AEIM did not predict incremental variance in GPA, stress, loneliness, or well-being, demonstrating the importance for testing validity instead of looking for it.

Hémorragie digestive haute: utilité des scores pronostiques [Upper gastrointestinal bleeding: usefulness of prognostic scores].

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a potentially serious event, usually requiring urgent endoscopic treatment. Better stratification of the risk of complication or death could optimize management and improve patient outcomes, while ensuring adequate resource allocation. Several prognostic scores have been developed, in order to identify high risk patients, who require immediate treatment, and patients at low risk for whom endoscopy may be delayed. An ideal prognostic score should be accurate, simple, reproducible, and prospectively validated in different populations. Published scores meet these requirements only partially, and thus can only be used as part of an integrative diagnostic and therapeutic process.

Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage after stroke thrombolysis: comparison of prediction scores.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Several prognostic scores have been developed to predict the risk of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) after ischemic stroke thrombolysis. We compared the performance of these scores in a multicenter cohort. METHODS: We merged prospectively collected data of patients with consecutive ischemic stroke who received intravenous thrombolysis in 7 stroke centers. We identified and evaluated 6 scores that can provide an estimate of the risk of sICH in hyperacute settings: MSS (Multicenter Stroke Survey); HAT (Hemorrhage After Thrombolysis); SEDAN (blood sugar, early infarct signs, [hyper]dense cerebral artery sign, age, NIH Stroke Scale); GRASPS (glucose at presentation, race [Asian], age, sex [male], systolic blood pressure at presentation, and severity of stroke at presentation [NIH Stroke Scale]); SITS (Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke); and SPAN (stroke prognostication using age and NIH Stroke Scale)-100 positive index. We included only patients with available variables for all scores. We calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and also performed logistic regression and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. RESULTS: The final cohort comprised 3012 eligible patients, of whom 221 (7.3%) had sICH per National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, 141 (4.7%) per European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study II, and 86 (2.9%) per Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke criteria. The performance of the scores assessed with AUC-ROC for predicting European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study II sICH was: MSS, 0.63 (95% confidence interval, 0.58-0.68); HAT, 0.65 (0.60-0.70); SEDAN, 0.70 (0.66-0.73); GRASPS, 0.67 (0.62-0.72); SITS, 0.64 (0.59-0.69); and SPAN-100 positive index, 0.56 (0.50-0.61). SEDAN had significantly higher AUC-ROC values compared with all other scores, except for GRASPS where the difference was nonsignificant. SPAN-100 performed significantly worse compared with other scores. The discriminative ranking of the scores was the same for the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, and Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke definitions, with SEDAN performing best, GRASPS second, and SPAN-100 worst. CONCLUSIONS: SPAN-100 had the worst predictive power, and SEDAN constantly the highest predictive power. However, none of the scores had better than moderate performance.

Mining the human phenome using allelic scores that index biological intermediates.

It is common practice in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to focus on the relationship between disease risk and genetic variants one marker at a time. When relevant genes are identified it is often possible to implicate biological intermediates and pathways likely to be involved in disease aetiology. However, single genetic variants typically explain small amounts of disease risk. Our idea is to construct allelic scores that explain greater proportions of the variance in biological intermediates, and subsequently use these scores to data mine GWAS. To investigate the approach's properties, we indexed three biological intermediates where the results of large GWAS meta-analyses were available: body mass index, C-reactive protein and low density lipoprotein levels. We generated allelic scores in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, and in publicly available data from the first Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium. We compared the explanatory ability of allelic scores in terms of their capacity to proxy for the intermediate of interest, and the extent to which they associated with disease. We found that allelic scores derived from known variants and allelic scores derived from hundreds of thousands of genetic markers explained significant portions of the variance in biological intermediates of interest, and many of these scores showed expected correlations with disease. Genome-wide allelic scores however tended to lack specificity suggesting that they should be used with caution and perhaps only to proxy biological intermediates for which there are no known individual variants. Power calculations confirm the feasibility of extending our strategy to the analysis of tens of thousands of molecular phenotypes in large genome-wide meta-analyses. We conclude that our method represents a simple way in which potentially tens of thousands of molecular phenotypes could be screened for causal relationships with disease without having to expensively measure these variables in individual disease collections.

Validation des SCORES cliniques: notions théoriques et pratiques de base. [Validation of clinical scores: theoretical and practical basic notions].

Chaque jour, le médecin utilise dans sa pratique des scores cliniques. Ces scores sont souvent des aides à la décision médicale. Les étapes de validation des scores cliniques sont par contre souvent méconnues du médecin. Cette revue rappelle les bases théoriques de la validation d'un score clinique et propose des exercices pratiques. [Abstract] Physicians are using clinical scores on a regular basis. These scores are generally helpful in making medical decisions. However, the process of validation of clinical scores is often unknown to the physicians. This paper reviews the theory of validation of clinical scores and proposes practical exercises.

Prospective comparison of clinical prognostic scores in elderly patients with pulmonary embolism.

Background: The Geneva Prognostic Score (GPS), the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), and its simplified version (sPESI) are well known clinical prognostic scores for pulmonary embolism (PE).Objectives: To compare the prognostic performance of these scores in elderly patients with PE. Patients/Methods: In a multicenter Swiss cohort of elderly patients with venous thromboembolism, we prospectively studied 449 patients aged ≥65 years with symptomatic PE. The outcome was 30-day overall mortality. We dichotomized patients as low- vs. higher-risk in all three scores using the following thresholds: GPS scores ≤2 vs. >2, PESI risk classes I-II vs. III-V, and sPESI scores 0 vs. ≥1. We compared 30-day mortality in low- vs. higher-risk patients and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Results: Overall, 3.8% of patients (17/449) died within 30 days. The GPS classified a greater proportion of patients as low risk (92% [413/449]) than the PESI (36.3% [163/449]) and the sPESI (39.6% [178/449]) (P<0.001 for each comparison). Low-risk patients based on the sPESI had a mortality of 0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0-2.1%) compared to 0.6% (95% CI 0-3.4%) for low-risk patients based on the PESI and 3.4% (95% CI 1.9-5.6%) for low-risk patients based on the GPS. The areas under the ROC curves were 0.77 (95%CI 0.72-0.81), 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.80), and 0.71 (95% CI 0.66-0.75), respectively (P=0.47). Conclusions: In this cohort of elderly patients with PE, the GPS identified a higher proportion of patients as low-risk but the PESI and sPESI were more accurate in predicting mortality.

Prédire la survenue d'un diabète: la place de scores cliniques et/ou génétiques [Genetic and/or clinical scores to anticipate the onset of diabetes]

Diabetes represents an important health burden on our society: for example in Lausanne (Switzerland) 16% of the adult population have abnormal glucose homeostasis and 6% have diabetes, of which about a third is not aware. Some guidelines identify the "at risk" population for which screening seems indicated. Simple clinical scores have been developed at allow to better estimate the risk of diabetes and hence to potentially better target screening of the disease. The recent discovery of more that 18 genetic variants associated with an increased risk to develop the diseased has allowed to include individual genotype into genetic risk scores. We will discuss in this article the usefulness of these genetic score, how they compare to clinical score, their implication for clinical practice as well as their potential ethical or economical consequences.

Diabetes risk scores and death: predictability and practicability in two different populations.

The aim was to examine the capacity of commonly used type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk scores to predict overall mortality. The US-based NHANES III (n = 3138; 982 deaths) and the Swiss-based CoLaus study (n = 3946; 191 deaths) were used. The predictive value of eight T2DM risk scores regarding overall mortality was tested. The Griffin score, based on few self-reported parameters, presented the best (NHANES III) and second best (CoLaus) predictive capacity. Generally, the predictive capacity of scores based on clinical (anthropometrics, lifestyle, history) and biological (blood parameters) data was not better than of scores based solely on clinical self-reported data. T2DM scores can be validly used to predict mortality risk in general populations without diabetes. Comparison with other scores could further show whether such scores also suit as a screening tool for quick overall health risk assessment.