Do established prognostic factors explain the different mortality rates in ICU septic patients around the world?

Background. The aim of this paper was to clarify if previously established prognostic factors explain the different mortality, rates observed in ICU septic patients around the world. Methods. This is a sub-study from the PROGRESS study, which was an international, prospective, observational registry of ICU patients with severe sepsis. For this study we included 10930 patients from 24 countries that enrolled more than 100 patients in the PROGRESS. The effect of potential prognostic factors on in-hospital mortality was examined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. The complete set of data was available for 7022 patients, who were considered in the multivariate analysis. Countries were classified according to country, income, development status, and in-hospital mortality terciles. The relationship between countries' characteristics and hospital mortality mortality was evaluated using linear regression. Results. Mean in-hospital mortality was 49.2%. Severe sepsis in-hospital mortality varied widely in different countries, ranging from 30.6% in New Zealand to 80.4% in Algeria. Classification as developed or developing country was not associated with in-hospital mortality (P=0.16), nor were levels of gross national product per capita (P=0.15). Patients in the group of countries with higher in-hospital mortality, had a crude OR for in-hospital death of 2.8 (95% CI 2.5-3.1) in comparison to those in the lower risk group. After adjustments were made for all other independent variables, the OR changed to 2.9 (95% CI 2.5-3.3). Conclusion. Severe sepsis mortality varies widely, in different countries. All known markers of disease severity and prognosis do not fully, explain the international differences in mortality,. Country, income does not explain this disparity, either. Further studies should be developed to verify if other organizational or structural factors account for disparities in patient care and outcomes. (Minerva Anestesiol 2012;78:1215-25)

Temporal Trends of Asthma Mortality Rates in Brazil from 1980 to 2010

Objective. Mortality from asthma has varied among countries during the last several decades. This study aimed to identify temporal trends of asthma mortality in Brazil from 1980 to 2010. Method. We analyzed 6840 deaths of patients aged 5-34 years that occurred in Brazil with the underlying cause of asthma. We applied a log-linear model using Poisson regression to verify peaks and trends. We also calculated the point estimation and 95% confidence interval (CI 95%) of the annual percent change (APC) of the mortality rates, and the average annual percent change (AAPC) for 2001-2010. Results. A decline was observed from 1980 to 1992 [APC = -3.4 (-5.0 to -1.8)], followed by a nonsignificant rise until 1996 [APC = 6.8 (-1.4 to 15.6)], and a new downward trend from 1997 to 2010 [APC = -2.7 (-3.9 to -1.6)]. The APCs varied according to age strata: 5-14 years from 1980 to 2010 [-0.3 (-1.1 to 0.5)]; 15-24 years from 1980 to 1991 [-2.1 (-5.0 to 0.9)], from 1992 to 1996 [6.8 (-6.7 to 22.2)], and from 1997 to 2010 [-3.9 (-5.7 to -2.0)]; 24-25 years from 1980 to 1992 [-2.5 (-4.6 to -0.3)], from 1993 to 1995 [12.0 (-21.1 to 59.1)], and from 1996-2010 [-1.7 (-3.0 to -0.4)]. AAPC from 2001 to 2010 was -1.7 (-3.0 to -0.4); the decline for this period was significant for patients over 15 years old, women, and those living in the Southeast region. Conclusion. Asthma mortality rates in Brazil have been declining since the late 1990s.

Disparities in female breast cancer mortality rates in Brazil between 1980 and 2009

OBJECTIVE: To describe the temporal trends in female breast cancer mortality rates in Brazil in its macro-regions and states between 1980 and 2009. METHODS: This was an ecological time-series study using data on breast cancer deaths registered in the Mortality Data System (SIM/WHO) and census data on the resident population collected by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE/WHO). Joinpoint regression analyses were used to identify the significant changes in trends and to estimate the annual percentage change (APC) in mortality rates. RESULTS: Female breast cancer mortality rates in Brazil tended to stabilize from 1994 onward (APC = 0.4%). Considering the Brazilian macro-regions, the annual mortality rates decreased in the Southeast, stabilized in the South and increased in the Northeast, North, and Midwest. Only the states of Sao Paulo (APC = -1.9%), Rio Grande do Sul (APC = -0.8%) and Rio de Janeiro (APC = -0.6%) presented a significant decline in mortality rates. The greatest increases were found in Maranhao (APC = 12%), Paraiba (APC = 11.9%), and Piaui (APC = 10.9%). CONCLUSION: Although there has been a trend toward stabilization in female breast cancer mortality rates in Brazil, when the mortality rate of each macro-region and state is analyzed individually, considerable inequalities are found, with rate decline or stabilization in states with higher socioeconomic levels and a substantial increase in those with lower socioeconomic levels.

Analyses of maternal and child mortality rates of five West African countries: Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Liberia, Senegal, Sierra Leone

After traveling to a small country in West Africa last summer, I became interested in learning more about the maternal, infant, and child death rates of that particular region of the continent. For the purposes of this paper I limited the number of countries that would be included in this research to five: Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Liberia, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. There are three hypotheses that were considered when conducting the research for this paper. The first was that there is no difference in the under five mortality rates for Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Liberia, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. The second hypothesis was that there is no difference in the female literacy rates for Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Liberia, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. The final hypothesis was that there is no difference in the male literacy rates for Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Liberia, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. The data used were collected from publicly available sources that include the CIA World Factbook, the WHO website, the UNICEF website, the Penn World Data table, and the World Bank website. The p-values that were calculated for all three hypotheses were found to be very significant, and all three of the null hypotheses were rejected. ^

The relationship between supermarket nutrient movements and the mortality rates from fat-associated and non-fat-associated cardiovascular disease: Development of an ecologic method for determining community food patterns

Supermarket nutrient movement, a community food consumption measure, aggregated 1,023 high-fat foods, representing 100% of visible fats and approximately 44% of hidden fats in the food supply (FAO, 1980). Fatty acid and cholesterol content of foods shipped from the warehouse to 47 supermarkets located in the Houston area were calculated over a 6 month period. These stores were located in census tracts with over 50% of a given ethnicity: Hispanic, black non-Hispanic, or white non-Hispanic. Categorizing the supermarket census tracts by predominant ethnicity, significant differences were found by ANOVA in the proportion of specific fatty acids and cholesterol content of the foods examined. Using ecological regression, ethnicity, income, and median age predicted supermarket lipid movements while residential stability did not. No associations were found between lipid movements and cardiovascular disease mortality, making further validation necessary for epidemiological application of this method. However, it has been shown to be a non-reactive and cost-effective method appropriate for tracking target foods in populations of groups, and for assessing the impact of mass media nutrition education, legislation, and fortification on community food and nutrient purchase patterns. ^

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE RELATION OF CANCER MORTALITY RATES AND SOURCES OF DRINKING WATER IN TEXAS

The geographic distribution of average annual age-adjusted mortality rates (1964-1976) for four types of cancer (all cancer sites combined, gastrointestinal, urinary, and lung cancer) were compared by sources of drinking water for 254 Texas counties and county rural areas and 301 Texas cities. Exposure variables considered were surface versus ground water, public water supplies versus individuals wells, and trihalomethane levels in municipal water supplies. Each general source of "surface" and "ground" water was further divided by aggregating ground water using areas by aquifers and surface water using study areas by river basins. Potential confounding variables taken into account included median education, employment in cancer risk industries, population mobility, ethnicity, and urbanicity. A pattern of higher and lower cancer mortality rates was found for populations using some aquifers and river basins. Further study is required to determine whether the differences in cancer mortality rates that were observed are related to drinking water content or are coincidental with differences in personal characteristics which could not be taken into account in this ecologic study design. ^

Assessing and applying evidence-based interventions at the community level in India as a model policy to reduce neonatal mortality rates in Nigeria

Background. The United Nations' Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 aims for a two-thirds reduction in death rates for children under the age of five by 2015. The greatest risk of death is in the first week of life, yet most of these deaths can be prevented by such simple interventions as improved hygiene, exclusive breastfeeding, and thermal care. The percentage of deaths in Nigeria that occur in the first month of life make up 28% of all deaths under five years, a statistic that has remained unchanged despite various child health policies. This paper will address the challenges of reducing the neonatal mortality rate in Nigeria by examining the literature regarding efficacy of home-based, newborn care interventions and policies that have been implemented successfully in India. ^ Methods. I compared similarities and differences between India and Nigeria using qualitative descriptions and available quantitative data of various health indicators. The analysis included identifying policy-related factors and community approaches contributing to India's newborn survival rates. Databases and reference lists of articles were searched for randomized controlled trials of community health worker interventions shown to reduce neonatal mortality rates. ^ Results. While it appears that Nigeria spends more money than India on health per capita ($136 vs. $132, respectively) and as percent GDP (5.8% vs. 4.2%, respectively), it still lags behind India in its neonatal, infant, and under five mortality rates (40 vs. 32 deaths/1000 live births, 88 vs. 48 deaths/1000 live births, 143 vs. 63 deaths/1000 live births, respectively). Both countries have comparably low numbers of healthcare providers. Unlike their counterparts in Nigeria, Indian community health workers receive training on how to deliver postnatal care in the home setting and are monetarily compensated. Gender-related power differences still play a role in the societal structure of both countries. A search of randomized controlled trials of home-based newborn care strategies yielded three relevant articles. Community health workers trained to educate mothers and provide a preventive package of interventions involving clean cord care, thermal care, breastfeeding promotion, and danger sign recognition during multiple postnatal visits in rural India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan reduced neonatal mortality rates by 54%, 34%, and 15–20%, respectively. ^ Conclusion. Access to advanced technology is not necessary to reduce neonatal mortality rates in resource-limited countries. To address the urgency of neonatal mortality, countries with weak health systems need to start at the community level and invest in cost-effective, evidence-based newborn care interventions that utilize available human resources. While more randomized controlled studies are urgently needed, the current available evidence of models of postnatal care provision demonstrates that home-based care and health education provided by community health workers can reduce neonatal mortality rates in the immediate future.^

Black/white disparities in infant mortality rates in the U.S.: A quality of care perspective

The infant mortality rate for non-Hispanic Black infants in the U.S. is 13.63 deaths per 1,000 live births while the IMR for non-Hispanic White persons in the U.S. is 5.76 deaths per 1,000 live births. Black women are 2 times as likely as White women to deliver preterm infants and Black women are 2 times as likely as White women to deliver low birth weight infants (weighing less than 2,500 grams at birth). Differential underlying risk factors among mothers of different racial/ethnic groups for delivering pre-term and low birth weight infants have been historically accepted as the cause of racial disparities in IMRs. However, differential underlying risk status may not be the only major causative factor. Differential or unequal access to and provision of care is widely speculated to be a leading contributing factor to the wide racial disparity in infant mortality.2 This paper conducts a systematic review of existing literature investigating racial disparities in obstetrical care provided by healthcare practitioners to evaluate whether inequities in healthcare services provided to pregnant mothers and their neonates exist. The search terms "racial disparities obstetrical care," "racial differences quality of prenatal care," and "infant mortality racial disparities" were entered into the EBSCO Medline, Ovid Medline, PubMed, and Academic Search Complete databases, and articles between years 1990–2011 were selected for abstract review. The only articles included were those that used statistical methods to assess whether racial inequalities were present in the obstetrical services provided to pregnant women. My literature search returned 5 articles. Four of the five studies yielded significant racial differences in obstetrical care. However, the one study that used a large, nationally representative valid sample did not represent significant differences. Thus, this review provides initial evidence for racial disparities in obstetrical care, but concludes that more studies are needed in this area. Not all of the studies reviewed were consistent in the use and measurement of services, and not all studies were significant. The policy and public health implications of possible racial disparities in obstetrical care include the need to develop standard of care protocols for ALL obstetrical patients across the United States to minimize and/or eliminate the inequities and differences in obstetrical services provided.^

Mortality rates 1910-1920 with population of the federal censuses of 1910 and 1920 and intercensal estimates of population.

"Prepared under the direction of Dr. William H. Davis, chief statistician for vital statistics, and under the immediate supervision of Richard C. Lappin, expert special agent of the Bureau of the Census.--Letter of transmittal, p. 5.

The out-of-sample performance of stochastic methods in forecasting age-specific mortality rates /

"July 2008."

Assessing natural mortality of Bay of Biscay anchovy from survey population and biomass estimates

La fermeture de la pêche de l’anchois (Engraulis encrasicolus) du Golfe de Gascogne entre 2005 et 2010, en raison de la faible biomasse du stock, a été une opportunité pour estimer la mortalité naturelle à partir de données de campagnes halieutiques issues de l’observation de la présence d’oeufs (DEPM) et de mesures acoustiques, utilisées pour l’évaluation de cette population depuis 1987. En considérant que la mortalité naturelle est constante au cours du temps et que la capturabilité des deux campagnes est identique pour tous les âges, la mortalité naturelle peut être estimée par des modèles log-linéaires appliquées aux séries temporelles de nombres aux âges issues des campagnes, et par des modèles d’évaluations de stock prenant en compte la saison. L’analyse suggère des valeurs de M autour de 0.9 comme mortalité naturelle courante à tous les âges. Cependant, nous avons des éléments forts indicateurs que la mortalité aux âges 2 et plus (M2+) est remarquablement plus forte qu’à l’âge 1 (M1) ce qui suppose un signe de mortalité sénescente, une possibilité qui a déjà été évoquée il y a longtemps pour ce type d’espèce à vie courte.