Bayesian designs with frequentist and Bayesian error rate considerations

So far, most Phase II trials have been designed and analysed under a frequentist framework. Under this framework, a trial is designed so that the overall Type I and Type II errors of the trial are controlled at some desired levels. Recently, a number of articles have advocated the use of Bavesian designs in practice. Under a Bayesian framework, a trial is designed so that the trial stops when the posterior probability of treatment is within certain prespecified thresholds. In this article, we argue that trials under a Bayesian framework can also be designed to control frequentist error rates. We introduce a Bayesian version of Simon's well-known two-stage design to achieve this goal. We also consider two other errors, which are called Bayesian errors in this article because of their similarities to posterior probabilities. We show that our method can also control these Bayesian-type errors. We compare our method with other recent Bayesian designs in a numerical study and discuss implications of different designs on error rates. An example of a clinical trial for patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma is used to illustrate differences of the different designs.

Designs for phase I clinical trials with multiple courses of subjects at different doses

The goal of this article is to provide a new design framework and its corresponding estimation for phase I trials. Existing phase I designs assign each subject to one dose level based on responses from previous subjects. Yet it is possible that subjects with neither toxicity nor efficacy responses can be treated at higher dose levels, and their subsequent responses to higher doses will provide more information. In addition, for some trials, it might be possible to obtain multiple responses (repeated measures) from a subject at different dose levels. In this article, a nonparametric estimation method is developed for such studies. We also explore how the designs of multiple doses per subject can be implemented to improve design efficiency. The gain of efficiency from "single dose per subject" to "multiple doses per subject" is evaluated for several scenarios. Our numerical study shows that using "multiple doses per subject" and the proposed estimation method together increases the efficiency substantially.

Decision-theoretic designs for dose-finding clinical trials with multiple outcomes

A decision-theoretic framework is proposed for designing sequential dose-finding trials with multiple outcomes. The optimal strategy is solvable theoretically via backward induction. However, for dose-finding studies involving k doses, the computational complexity is the same as the bandit problem with k-dependent arms, which is computationally prohibitive. We therefore provide two computationally compromised strategies, which is of practical interest as the computational complexity is greatly reduced: one is closely related to the continual reassessment method (CRM), and the other improves CRM and approximates to the optimal strategy better. In particular, we present the framework for phase I/II trials with multiple outcomes. Applications to a pediatric HIV trial and a cancer chemotherapy trial are given to illustrate the proposed approach. Simulation results for the two trials show that the computationally compromised strategy can perform well and appear to be ethical for allocating patients. The proposed framework can provide better approximation to the optimal strategy if more extensive computing is available.

Optimal designs for evaluating a series of treatments

Several articles in this journal have studied optimal designs for testing a series of treatments to identify promising ones for further study. These designs formulate testing as an ongoing process until a promising treatment is identified. This formulation is considered to be more realistic but substantially increases the computational complexity. In this article, we show that these new designs, which control the error rates for a series of treatments, can be reformulated as conventional designs that control the error rates for each individual treatment. This reformulation leads to a more meaningful interpretation of the error rates and hence easier specification of the error rates in practice. The reformulation also allows us to use conventional designs from published tables or standard computer programs to design trials for a series of treatments. We illustrate these using a study in soft tissue sarcoma.

Isotonic designs for phase I trials

The purpose of a phase I trial in cancer is to determine the level (dose) of the treatment under study that has an acceptable level of adverse effects. Although substantial progress has recently been made in this area using parametric approaches, the method that is widely used is based on treating small cohorts of patients at escalating doses until the frequency of toxicities seen at a dose exceeds a predefined tolerable toxicity rate. This method is popular because of its simplicity and freedom from parametric assumptions. In this payer, we consider cases in which it is undesirable to assume a parametric dose-toxicity relationship. We propose a simple model-free approach by modifying the method that is in common use. The approach assumes toxicity is nondecreasing with dose and fits an isotonic regression to accumulated data. At any point in a trial, the dose given is that with estimated toxicity deemed closest to the maximum tolerable toxicity. Simulations indicate that this approach performs substantially better than the commonly used method and it compares favorably with other phase I designs.

Low PAPR Square STBCs from Complex Partial-Orthogonal Designs (CPODs)

Space-time codes from complex orthogonal designs (CODs) with no zero entries offer low Peak to Average Power Ratio (PAPR) and avoid the problem of switching off antennas. But square CODs for 2(a) antennas with a + 1. complex variables, with no zero entries were discovered only for a <= 3 and if a + 1 = 2(k), for k >= 4. In this paper, a method of obtaining no zero entry (NZE) square designs, called Complex Partial-Orthogonal Designs (CPODs), for 2(a+1) antennas whenever a certain type of NZE code exists for 2(a) antennas is presented. Then, starting from a so constructed NZE CPOD for n = 2(a+1) antennas, a construction procedure is given to obtain NZE CPODs for 2n antennas, successively. Compared to the CODs, CPODs have slightly more ML decoding complexity for rectangular QAM constellations and the same ML decoding complexity for other complex constellations. Using the recently constructed NZE CODs for 8 antennas our method leads to NZE CPODs for 16 antennas. The class of CPODs do not offer full-diversity for all complex constellations. For the NZE CPODs presented in the paper, conditions on the signal sets which will guarantee full-diversity are identified. Simulation results show that bit error performance of our codes is same as that of the CODs under average power constraint and superior to CODs under peak power constraint.

Assessment of novel gear designs to reduce interactions between species

This project tested modified gillnets designed by commercial net fishers in the Queensland East Coast Inshore Finfish Fishery (ECIFF) to try and identify gears that would mitigate and/or improve interactions between fishing nets and Species of Conservation Interest (SOCI). The study also documents previously unrecognised initiatives by pro-active commercial net fishers that reflect a conservation-minded approach to their fishing practices, which is the opposite of what is perceived publicly. Between 2011 and 2014, scientists from James Cook University and the Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries teamed with commercial fishers representing the Queensland Seafood Industry Association and the Moreton Bay Seafood Industry Association to conduct field trials of various modified net designs under normal fishery conditions. Trials were conducted in Moreton Bay (southern part of the fishery) and Bowling Green Bay (northern) and tested different net designs developed by fishers to improve the nature of interactions between net fishing gear and SOCI.

A comparison of DNA pools constructed following whole genome amplification for two-stage SNP genotyping designs

Genotyping in DNA pools reduces the cost and the time required to complete large genotyping projects. The aim of the present study was to evaluate pooling as part of a strategy for fine mapping in regions of significant linkage. Thirty-nine single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were analyzed in two genomic DNA pools of 384 individuals each and results compared with data after typing all individuals used in the pools. There were no significant differences using data from either 2 or 8 heterozygous individuals to correct frequency estimates for unequal allelic amplification. After correction, the mean difference between estimates from the genomic pool and individual allele frequencies was .033. A major limitation of the use of DNA pools is the time and effort required to carefully adjust the concentration of each individual DNA sample before mixing aliquots. Pools were also constructed by combining DNA after Multiple Displacement Amplification (MDA). The MDA pools gave similar results to pools constructed after careful DNA quantitation (mean difference from individual genotyping .040) and MDA provides a rapid method to generate pools suitable for some applications. Pools provide a rapid and cost-effective screen to eliminate SNPs that are not polymorphic in a test population and can detect minor allele frequencies as low as 1% in the pooled samples. With current levels of accuracy, pooling is best suited to an initial screen in the SNP validation process that can provide high-throughput comparisons between cases and controls to prioritize SNPs for subsequent individual genotyping.

The creative suburb: Building and urban designs for suburban innovators

Influential creative industries and creative place thinkers Richard Florida and Charles Landry agree that creativity is necessary for a prospering liveable and, therefore, sustainable city. Following Florida’s work, the ‘creative class’ has become central to what has turned out to be city-centre-centric growth policies. However, until the Queensland University of Technology’s Australian Research Council sponsored research into “creative suburbia”, few researchers had demonstrated – let alone challenged – the notion that a substantial cohort of creative industries workers might prefer to live and work at home in the suburbs rather than in city centres. The “creative suburb” work builds on the creative suburbia research. In a practice-led and property development industry embedded inquiry, the creative suburb draws on significant primary research with suburban, home-based, creative industries workers, vernacular architecture, and town planning in the Toowoomba region, in the state of Queensland, Australia, as inspiration for a series of new building and urban designs available for innovators operating in new suburban greenfield situations and suburban areas undergoing a refit in Queensland and possibly further afield. This paper focuses on one building design informed by this inquiry, with the intention of its construction as a ’showcasestudy’ ‘homeworkhouse’, suitable for creative industries workers in the Toowoomba region.

Robust THP Transceiver Designs for Multiuser MIMO Downlink with Imperfect CSIT

We present robust joint nonlinear transceiver designs for multiuser multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) downlink in the presence of imperfections in the channel state information at the transmitter (CSIT). The base station (BS) is equipped with multiple transmit antennas, and each user terminal is equipped with one or more receive antennas. The BS employs Tomlinson-Harashima precoding (THP) for interuser interference precancellation at the transmitter. We consider robust transceiver designs that jointly optimize the transmit THP filters and receive filter for two models of CSIT errors. The first model is a stochastic error (SE) model, where the CSIT error is Gaussian-distributed. This model is applicable when the CSIT error is dominated by channel estimation error. In this case, the proposed robust transceiver design seeks to minimize a stochastic function of the sum mean square error (SMSE) under a constraint on the total BS transmit power. We propose an iterative algorithm to solve this problem. The other model we consider is a norm-bounded error (NBE) model, where the CSIT error can be specified by an uncertainty set. This model is applicable when the CSIT error is dominated by quantization errors. In this case, we consider a worst-case design. For this model, we consider robust (i) minimum SMSE, (ii) MSE-constrained, and (iii) MSE-balancing transceiver designs. We propose iterative algorithms to solve these problems, wherein each iteration involves a pair of semidefinite programs (SDPs). Further, we consider an extension of the proposed algorithm to the case with per-antenna power constraints. We evaluate the robustness of the proposed algorithms to imperfections in CSIT through simulation, and show that the proposed robust designs outperform nonrobust designs as well as robust linear transceiver designs reported in the recent literature.

Non-linear Transceiver Designs with Imperfect CSIT Using Convex Optimization

In this paper, we consider non-linear transceiver designs for multiuser multi-input multi-output (MIMO) down-link in the presence of imperfections in the channel state information at the transmitter (CSIT). The base station (BS) is equipped with multiple transmit antennas and each user terminal is equipped with multiple receive antennas. The BS employs Tomlinson-Harashima precoding (THP) for inter-user interference pre-cancellation at the transmitter. We investigate robust THP transceiver designs based on the minimization of BS transmit power with mean square error (MSE) constraints, and balancing of MSE among users with a constraint on the total BS transmit power. We show that these design problems can be solved by iterative algorithms, wherein each iteration involves a pair of convex optimization problems. The robustness of the proposed algorithms to imperfections in CSIT is illustrated through simulations.

Low PAPR STBCs from Complex Partial-Orthogonal Designs (CPODs)

Space-time codes from complex orthogonal designs (CODs) with no zero entries offer low Peak to Average power ratio (PAPR) and avoid the problem of turning off antennas. But CODs for 2(a) antennas with a + 1 complex variables, with no zero entries are not known in the literature for a >= 4. In this paper, a method of obtaining no zero entry (NZE) codes, called Complex Partial-Orthogonal Designs (CPODs), for 2(a+1) antennas whenever a certain type of NZE code exists for 2(a) antennas is presented. This is achieved with slight increase in the ML decoding complexity for regular QAM constellations and no increase for other complex constellations. Since NZE CODs have been constructed recently for 8 antennas our method leads to NZE CPODs for 16 antennas. Moreover, starting from certain NZE CPODs for n antennas, a construction procedure is given to obtain NZE CPODs for 2n antennas. The class of CPODs do not offer full-diversity for all complex constellations. For the NZE CPODs presented in the paper, conditions on the signal sets which will guarantee full-diversity are identified. Simulations results show that bit error performance of our codes under average power constraint is same as that of the CODs and superior to CODs under peak power constraint.

Translating emotional insights into digital channel designs: Opportunities to enhance the airport experience

Purpose The purpose of this study is to identify and understand the emotions behind a passenger’s airport experience and how this can inform digital channel engagements. Design/methodology/approach This study investigates the emotional experience of two hundred (200) passengers’ journeys at an Australian domestic airport. A survey was conducted which implemented the use of Emocards and an interview approach of laddering. The responses were then analysed into attributes, consequences and values. Findings The results indicate that across key stages of the airport (parking, retail, gates and arrivals) passengers had different emotional experiences (positive, negative and neutral). The attributes, consequences and values behind these emotions were then used to propose digital channel content and purpose of various future digital channel engagements. Research limitations/implications By gaining emotional insights airports are able to generate digital channel engagements, which align with passengers’ needs and values rather than internal operational motivations. Theoretical contributions include the development of the Technology Acceptance Model to include emotional drivers as influences in the use of digital channels. Originality/value This research provides a unique method to understand the passengers’ emotional journey across the airport infrastructure and suggest how to better design digital channel engagements to address passenger latent needs.