Environmental evaluation of localising production as a strategy for sustainable development: a case study of two consumer goods in Jamaica

The objective of this study was to compare the life-cycle environmental impacts of changed production structures for two consumer goods (high-density polyethylene (HDPE) shopping bags and beds) in Jamaica. A scenario technique was used to construct three alternative production structures for each product; each scenario reflecting an increase in local production in Jamaica which depended on an increased supply of input materials which may be sourced: (1) externally from overseas suppliers, (2) from post-consumer recycling, and (3) locally on the island of Jamaica. These three constructed scenarios were then compared to the existing supply chain or reference scenarios of the products. The results showed that for both case products the recycling scenario was most preferable for localising production, resulting in the lowest environmental impact. This was because the production of raw materials accounted for the largest effect on total environmental impact. As such, the most immediate environmental improvements were realised by lowering the production of virgin materials. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experimental Investigation Of Particle Velocity Distributions In Windblown Sand Movement

With the PDPA (Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer) measurement technology, the probability distributions of particle impact and lift-off velocities on bed surface and the particle velocity distributions at different heights are detected in a wind tunnel. The results show that the probability distribution of impact and lift-off velocities of sand grains can be expressed by a log-normal function, and that of impact and lift-off angles complies with an exponential function. The mean impact angle is between 28 degrees and 39 degrees, and the mean lift-off angle ranges from 30 degrees to 44 degrees. The mean lift-off velocity is 0.81-0.9 times the mean impact velocity. The proportion of backward-impacting particles is 0.05-0.11, and that of backward-entrained particles ranges from 0.04 to 0.13. The probability distribution of particle horizontal velocity at 4 mm height is positive skew, the horizontal velocity of particles at 20 mm height varies widely, and the variation of the particle horizontal velocity at 80 mm height is less than that at 20 mm height. The probability distribution of particle vertical velocity at different heights can be described as a normal function.

Reconstructing The Vertical Distribution Of The Aeolian Saltation Mass Flux Based On The Probability Distribution Of Lift-Off Velocity

The probability distribution of lift-off velocity of the saltating grains is a bridge to linking microscopic and macroscopic research of aeolian sand transport. The lift-off parameters of saltating grains (i.e., the horizontal and vertical lift-off velocities, resultant lift-off velocity, and lift-off angle) in a wind tunnel are measured by using a Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer (PDPA). The experimental results show that the probability distribution of horizontal lift-off velocity of saltating particles on a bed surface is a normal function, and that of vertical lift-off velocity is an exponential function. The probability distribution of resultant lift-off velocity of saltating grains can be expressed as a log-normal function, and that of lift-off angle complies with an exponential function. A numerical model for the vertical distribution of aeolian mass flux based on the probability distribution of lift-off velocity is established. The simulation gives a sand mass flux distribution which is consistent with the field data of Namikas (Namikas, S.L., 2003. Field measurement and numerical modelling of acolian mass flux distributions on a sandy beach, Sedimentology 50, 303-326). Therefore, these findings are helpful to further understand the probability characteristics of lift-off grains in aeolian sand transport. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects on the proton production from explosions of hydrogen clusters subjected to intense femtosecond laser fields

The dependence of the maximum and average energies of protons, which were produced in the interaction of an intense laser pulse (similar to 1 x 10(16) W cm(-2), 65 fs) with hydrogen clusters in a gas jet backed up to 80 bar at liquid nitrogen temperature (similar to 80 K), on the backing pressure has been studied. The general trend of the proton energy dependence on the square of the average cluster radius, which is determined by a calibrated Rayleigh scattering measurement, is similar to that described by theory under the single size approximation. Calculations are made to fit the experimental results under a simplified model by taking into account both a log-normal cluster size distribution and the laser intensity attenuation in the interaction volume. A very good agreement between the experimental proton energy spectra and the calculations is obtained in the high- energy part of the proton energy distributions, but a discrepancy of the fits is revealed in the low-energy part at higher backing pressures which are associated with denser flows. A possible mechanism which would be responsible for this discrepancy is discussed. Finally, from the fits, a variation of the cluster size distributions was revealed to be dependent on the gas backing pressure as well as on the evolving time of the gas flow of clusters.

Estudo da quantificação de incertezas para o problema de contaminação de meios porosos heterogêneos

As técnicas de injeção de traçadores têm sido amplamente utilizadas na investigação de escoamentos em meios porosos, principalmente em problemas envolvendo a simulação numérica de escoamentos miscíveis em reservatórios de petróleo e o transporte de contaminantes em aquíferos. Reservatórios subterrâneos são em geral heterogêneos e podem apresentar variações significativas das suas propriedades em várias escalas de comprimento. Estas variações espaciais são incorporadas às equações que governam o escoamento no interior do meio poroso por meio de campos aleatórios. Estes campos podem prover uma descrição das heterogeneidades da formação subterrânea nos casos onde o conhecimento geológico não fornece o detalhamento necessário para a predição determinística do escoamento através do meio poroso. Nesta tese é empregado um modelo lognormal para o campo de permeabilidades a fim de reproduzir-se a distribuição de permeabilidades do meio real, e a geração numérica destes campos aleatórios é feita pelo método da Soma Sucessiva de Campos Gaussianos Independentes (SSCGI). O objetivo principal deste trabalho é o estudo da quantificação de incertezas para o problema inverso do transporte de um traçador em um meio poroso heterogêneo empregando uma abordagem Bayesiana para a atualização dos campos de permeabilidades, baseada na medição dos valores da concentração espacial do traçador em tempos específicos. Um método do tipo Markov Chain Monte Carlo a dois estágios é utilizado na amostragem da distribuição de probabilidade a posteriori e a cadeia de Markov é construída a partir da reconstrução aleatória dos campos de permeabilidades. Na resolução do problema de pressão-velocidade que governa o escoamento empregase um método do tipo Elementos Finitos Mistos adequado para o cálculo acurado dos fluxos em campos de permeabilidades heterogêneos e uma abordagem Lagrangiana, o método Forward Integral Tracking (FIT), é utilizada na simulação numérica do problema do transporte do traçador. Resultados numéricos são obtidos e apresentados para um conjunto de realizações amostrais dos campos de permeabilidades.

Evaluating methods for estimating rare events with zero-heavy data: a simulation model estimating sea turtle bycatch in the pelagic longline fishery

Estimating rare events from zero-heavy data (data with many zero values) is a common challenge in fisheries science and ecology. For example, loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) and leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) account for less than 1% of total catch in the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. Nevertheless, the Southeast Fisheries Science Center (SEFSC) of the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) is charged with assessing the effect of this fishery on these federally protected species. Annual estimates of loggerhead and leatherback bycatch in a fishery can affect fishery management and species conservation decisions. However, current estimates have wide confidence intervals, and their accuracy is unknown. We evaluate 3 estimation methods, each at 2 spatiotemporal scales, in simulations of 5 spatial scenarios representing incidental capture of sea turtles by the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. The delta-log normal method of estimating bycatch for calendar quarter and fishing area strata was the least biased estimation method in the spatial scenarios believed to be most realistic. This result supports the current estimation procedure used by the SEFSC.

Small-boat surveys for coastal dolphins: line-transect surveys of Hector’s dolphins (Cephalorhynchus hectori)

Management of coastal species of small cetaceans is often impeded by a lack of robust estimates of their abundance. In the Austral summers of 1997−98, 1998−99, and 1999−2000 we conducted line-transect surveys of Hector’s dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori) abundance off the north, east, and south coasts of the South Island of New Zealand. Survey methods were modified for the use of a 15-m sailing catamaran, which was equipped with a collapsible sighting platform giving observers an eye-height of 6 m. Eighty-six percent of 2061 km of survey effort was allocated to inshore waters (4 nautical miles [nmi] or 7.4 km from shore), and the remainder to offshore waters (4−10 nmi or 7.4–18.5 km from shore). Transects were placed at 45° to the shore and spaced apart by 1, 2, 4, or 8 nmi according to pre-existing data on dolphin density. Survey effort within strata was uniform. Detection functions for sheltered waters and open coasts were fitted separately for each survey. The effect of attraction of dolphins to the survey vessel and the fraction of dolphins missed on the trackline were assessed with simultaneous boat and helicopter surveys in January 1999. Hector’s dolphin abundance in the coastal zone to 4 nmi offshore was calculated at 1880 individuals (CV=15.7%, log-normal 95% CI=1384−2554). These surveys are the first line-transect surveys for cetaceans in New Zealand’s coastal waters.

A general framework for integrating environmental time series into stock assessment models: model description, simulation testing, and example

We present a method to integrate environmental time series into stock assessment models and to test the significance of correlations between population processes and the environmental time series. Parameters that relate the environmental time series to population processes are included in the stock assessment model, and likelihood ratio tests are used to determine if the parameters improve the fit to the data significantly. Two approaches are considered to integrate the environmental relationship. In the environmental model, the population dynamics process (e.g. recruitment) is proportional to the environmental variable, whereas in the environmental model with process error it is proportional to the environmental variable, but the model allows an additional temporal variation (process error) constrained by a log-normal distribution. The methods are tested by using simulation analysis and compared to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. In the traditional method, the estimates of recruitment were provided by a model that allowed the recruitment only to have a temporal variation constrained by a log-normal distribution. We illustrate the methods by applying them to test the statistical significance of the correlation between sea-surface temperature (SST) and recruitment to the snapper (Pagrus auratus) stock in the Hauraki Gulf–Bay of Plenty, New Zealand. Simulation analyses indicated that the integrated approach with additional process error is superior to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. The results suggest that, for the snapper stock, recruitment is positively correlated with SST at the time of spawning.

意大利威尼托（Veneto）的刺叶栎林-植物社会学生物多样性研究

刺叶栎( Quercus ilex L．)是地中海的常绿树种，属于古老的第三纪植物区系成份。本文根据苏黎世——蒙特利尔学派的植被学基本原理，全面地研究了分布在整个威尼托(Veneto)大区的剌叶栎林，详细研究刺叶栎林的群落组成、结构及类型划分。同时，对威尼托的刺叶栎林同北京山区的栎林进行了比较研究。最后，着重研究了威尼托刺叶栎林的生物多样性。 威尼托的刺叶栎林主要分布在亚得里亚海沿岸（包括Foci del Tagtiamento和Bosco Nordio e Rosolina Mare两地）、Lago di Garda和Colli Euganei。 在气候上，亚得里亚海沿岸属于半地中海气候。加尔达湖区域(Laqo di Garda)则是接近欧洲中部的大陆性气候，且维持半地中海的气候特点。Co t l i Euganei是这两地气候的过渡类型，且更接近亚得里亚海沿岸的类型。 在亚得里亚海沿岸的刺叶栎林可以分为三类，第一类(I)是一些矮树丛，这是Fraxinus ornus和Quercus ilex混交林的前身，较干旱。第二类群落(II)缺少乔木层，灌木层是由一些盖度不大的刺叶栎代替，更干旱。第三类群落(Ⅲ)是一群在外貌上相同的成熟群落．Fraxinus ornus和Quercus ilex得到充分发展，较中生。 在加尔达湖区的刺叶栎林可划分为三类。第一类群落(I)代表一组耐旱、开敞的矮树丛，含有Sesterio Variae-Ostryelum群丛的特征种，这一类可划分为SesLerio Variae-Ostryetum群 丛，土壤贫脊和干旱。第二类群落(Ⅱ)代表一类较郁闭的矮树丛，含有较多的Prunetalia群落目的成份，土壤较贫脊。第三类群(Ⅲ)代表一类郁闭的群落，乔木具有很大的密度因而林下灌木不能充分发展。SesLerio Variae-Ostryetum群丛和Prunetalia群落目的成份均不多。 在Colli Euganei的刺叶栎林可划分为二类。第一类群落(I)是一些不郁闲的矮树林组成。大体上分为地中海旱生栎林和地中海假灌丛。第二类群落(II)代表了较中生状态的植被，刺叶标种群绝对郁闭。 北京地处华北大平原的西北部。北京山地的气候为温带陆地性季风气候，其地带性的落叶阔叶林是以栎林为典型。虽然这些栎林同意大利威尼托刺叶栎林是两种不同的森林类型，但两者之间是存在着一定的联系。其共有的科有20个，共有属有11个。他们在植物组成中，以禾本科，蔷薇科和豆科的植物种类为最多。在乔木层中，他们都是以壳斗科的栎属(Quercus)为优势，其中木犀科的白蜡属(Fraxinus)和槭树属(Acer)较多。 本文对威尼托大区刺叶栎林的物种多度分布格局进行了全面探讨，计算出刺叶栎林的几何分布模型、Broken-stick分布模型、Log分布模型、Log-normat分布模型等四种物种多度分布的理论模型，并将这些理论分布模型用“序列／多度”图解和“多度／频度”图解表示出来。其中，几何分布模型．Broken-stick1分布模型用“序列／多度”图解表示。Broken-stick2分布模型、Log分布模型、Log-normal分布模型用“多度／频度”图解表示。 对上述四个物种多度的理论分布同实际现察的物种多度分布进行X2分析，在5％的显著性水平上，对整个威托大区的刺叶 栎林，几何分布模型最能代表其物种多度分布，显著性最大;Log-normal分布模型也可以用来代表威尼托刺叶标妹的物种多度分布，其显著性次于几何分布模型的显著性。这表明威尼托的刺叶栎林尚处于演替的早期阶段，这些刺叶栎林曾受到严重破坏，现正在恢复。 通过比较Foci del Tagtiamento和Bosco Nordio加尔达湖区、Colli Euganei四个地方刺叶栎林的物种多度的几何分布模型和Log-normal分布模型，显示出Lago di Garda（加尔达湖区）的刺叶栎林生物多样性最好、Foci del Tagtiamento刺叶栎林生物多样性较好．Bosco Nordio的剌叶栎林生物多样性较差．Colli Euganei的刺叶栎林生物多样性最差。 再利用多样性指数计算全部威尼托大区剌叶栎林的生物多样性。计算的多样性指数有丰富度指数（包括Margalef指数、Men-hinick指数、Monk指数）、多样性指数(Shannon信息指数、Bri llouin个息指数、Gini指数、PIE指数、Mcintosh指数)、优势度指数(Berger-Parker指数、Simpson指数)、均一度指数(Pielou均一度指数、Brillouin均一度指数，PIE的V’均一度指数．PIE的V均一度指数，N2的V’均一度指数，N2的V均一度指数，Mclntosh均一度指数，Hill的F10均一度指数，Hill的E21均一度指数，Hill的F21的一度指数）。通过比较丰富度指数，多样性指数、均一度指数与优势度之间的关系，结果，Simpson优势度指数同Men-hinick物种丰富度指数、Shannon信息指数、Bril-louin信息指数、Pielou均一度指数，Brillouin均一度指数，Mcintosh均一度指数、PIE的V’均一度指数呈负相关关系，因此，上述生物多样性指数可以较好地反映威尼托大区刺叶栎林的生物多样性。反映出的结果是：加尔达湖区刺叶栎林生物多样性最好，Foci del Tagtiamento刺叶栎林生物多样性较好，Bosco Nordio的剌叶栎林生物多样性较差．Colli Euganei的刺叶栎林生物多样性最差。 生物多样性的研究显示出生物多样性同生境状况的密切联系。往往受人为干扰严重的群落生物多样性低、如Coli Euganei和亚得里亚海岸刺叶栋林;而受人为破坏较轻的群落其生物多样性高，如加尔达湖区刺叶栎。 生物多样性的研究还显示出生物多样性同群落演替的发展阶段密切相关，在群落演替初期，由于缺乏优势种，而又有大量物种侵入，物多样性相对较高。在群落演替中期，由于形成了一个或几个优势种，优势度的增加导致了生物多样性相对减低。如Foci del Tagtiamento刺叶栎林生物多样性高于Bosco Nordio刺叶栎林的生物多样性。到演替后期，随着更多物种的侵入，群落结构的复杂化、生物多样性又将逐步提高。

Predicting surface vibration from underground railways through inhomogeneous soil

Noise and vibration from underground railways is a major source of disturbance to inhabitants near subways. To help designers meet noise and vibration limits, numerical models are used to understand vibration propagation from these underground railways. However, the models commonly assume the ground is homogeneous and neglect to include local variability in the soil properties. Such simplifying assumptions add a level of uncertainty to the predictions which is not well understood. The goal of the current paper is to quantify the effect of soil inhomogeneity on surface vibration. The thin-layer method (TLM) is suggested as an efficient and accurate means of simulating vibration from underground railways in arbitrarily layered half-spaces. Stochastic variability of the soils elastic modulus is introduced using a KL expansion; the modulus is assumed to have a log-normal distribution and a modified exponential covariance kernel. The effect of horizontal soil variability is investigated by comparing the stochastic results for soils varied only in the vertical direction to soils with 2D variability. Results suggest that local soil inhomogeneity can significantly affect surface velocity predictions; 90 percent confidence intervals showing 8 dB averages and peak values up to 12 dB are computed. This is a significant source of uncertainty and should be considered when using predictions from models assuming homogeneous soil properties. Furthermore, the effect of horizontal variability of the elastic modulus on the confidence interval appears to be negligible. This suggests that only vertical variation needs to be taken into account when modelling ground vibration from underground railways. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statistics of reaction progress variable and mixture fraction gradients from DNS of turbulent partially premixed flames

Statistically planar turbulent partially premixed flames for different initial intensities of decaying turbulence have been simulated for global equivalence ratios = 0.7 and 1.0 using three-dimensional, simplified chemistry-based direct numerical simulations (DNS). The simulation parameters are chosen such that the flames represent the thin reaction zones regime combustion. A random bimodal distribution of equivalence ratio is introduced in the unburned gas ahead of the flame to account for the mixture inhomogeneity. The results suggest that the probability density functions (PDFs) of the mixture fraction gradient magnitude |Δξ| (i.e., P(|Δξ|)) can be reasonably approximated using a log-normal distribution. However, this presumed PDF distribution captures only the qualitative nature of the PDF of the reaction progress variable gradient magnitude |Δc| (i.e., P(|Δc|)). It has been found that a bivariate log-normal distribution does not sufficiently capture the quantitative behavior of the joint PDF of |Δξ| and |Δc| (i.e., P(|Δξ|, |Δc|)), and the agreement with the DNS data has been found to be poor in certain regions of the flame brush, particularly toward the burned gas side of the flame brush. Moreover, the variables |Δξ| and |Δc| show appreciable correlation toward the burned gas side of the flame brush. These findings are corroborated further using a DNS data of a lifted jet flame to study the flame geometry dependence of these statistics. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Numerical investigation of particle velocity distributions in aeolian sand transport

Particle velocity distribution in a blowing sand cloud is a reflection of saltation movement of many particles. Numerical analysis is performed for particle velocity distribution with a discrete particle model. The probability distributions of resultant particle velocity in the impact-entrainment process, particle horizontal and vertical velocities at different heights and the vertical velocity of ascending particles are analyzed. The probability distributions of resultant impact and lift-off velocities of saltating particles can be expressed by a log-normal function, and that of impact angle comply with an exponential function. The probability distribution of particle horizontal and vertical velocities at different heights shows a typical single-peak pattern. In the lower part of saltation layer, the particle horizontal velocity distribution is positively skewed. Further analysis shows that the probability density function of the vertical velocity of ascending particles is similar to the right-hand part of a normal distribution function, and a general equation is acquired for the probability density function of non-dimensional vertical velocity of ascending particles which is independent of diameter of saltating particles, wind strength and height. These distributions in the present numerical analysis are consistent with reported experimental results. The present investigation is important for understanding the saltation state in wind-blown sand movement. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

CFD-DEM simulation of three-dimensional aeolian sand movement

A three-dimensional CFD-DEM model is proposed to investigate the aeolian sand movement. The results show that the mean particle horizontal velocity can be expressed by a power function of heights. The probability distribution of the impact and lift-off velocities of particles can be described by a log-normal function, and that of the impact and lift-off angles can be expressed by an exponential function. The probability distribution of particle horizontal velocity at different heights can be described as a lognormal function, while the probability distribution of longitudinal and vertical velocity can be described as a normal function. The comparison with previous two-dimensional calculations shows that the variations of mean particle horizontal velocity along the heights in two-dimensional and three-dimensional models are similar. However, the mean particle density of the two-dimensional model is larger than that in reality, which will result in the overestimation of sand transportation rate in the two-dimensional calculation. The study also shows that the predicted probability distributions of particle velocities are in good agreement with the experimental results.

Temperature dependence of the distribution of the first passage time: Results from discontinuous molecular dynamics simulations of an all-atom model of the second beta-hairpin fragment of protein G

More than 22 000 folding kinetic simulations were performed to study the temperature dependence of the distribution of first passage time (FPT) for the folding of an all-atom Go-like model of the second beta-hairpin fragment of protein G. We find that the mean FPT (MFPT) for folding has a U (or V)-shaped dependence on the temperature with a minimum at a characteristic optimal folding temperature T-opt*. The optimal folding temperature T-opt* is located between the thermodynamic folding transition temperature and the solidification temperature based on the Lindemann criterion for the solid. Both the T-opt* and the MFPT decrease when the energy bias gap against nonnative contacts increases. The high-order moments are nearly constant when the temperature is higher than T-opt* and start to diverge when the temperature is lower than T-opt*. The distribution of FPT is close to a log-normal-like distribution at T* greater than or equal to T-opt*. At even lower temperatures, the distribution starts to develop long power-law-like tails, indicating the non-self-averaging intermittent behavior of the folding dynamics. It is demonstrated that the distribution of FPT can also be calculated reliably from the derivative of the fraction not folded (or fraction folded), a measurable quantity by routine ensemble-averaged experimental techniques at dilute protein concentrations.

Lognormal and gamma mixed negative binomial regression

In regression analysis of counts, a lack of simple and efficient algorithms for posterior computation has made Bayesian approaches appear unattractive and thus underdeveloped. We propose a lognormal and gamma mixed negative binomial (NB) regression model for counts, and present efficient closed-form Bayesian inference; unlike conventional Poisson models, the proposed approach has two free parameters to include two different kinds of random effects, and allows the incorporation of prior information, such as sparsity in the regression coefficients. By placing a gamma distribution prior on the NB dispersion parameter r, and connecting a log-normal distribution prior with the logit of the NB probability parameter p, efficient Gibbs sampling and variational Bayes inference are both developed. The closed-form updates are obtained by exploiting conditional conjugacy via both a compound Poisson representation and a Polya-Gamma distribution based data augmentation approach. The proposed Bayesian inference can be implemented routinely, while being easily generalizable to more complex settings involving multivariate dependence structures. The algorithms are illustrated using real examples. Copyright 2012 by the author(s)/owner(s).