Decision evaluation in complex risk network systems (DecernsSDSS) demo and Black River case study

The selection of metrics for ecosystem restoration programs is critical for improving the quality of monitoring programs and characterizing project success. Moreover it is oftentimes very difficult to balance the importance of multiple ecological, social, and economical metrics. Metric selection process is a complex and must simultaneously take into account monitoring data, environmental models, socio-economic considerations, and stakeholder interests. We propose multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods, broadly defined, for the selection of optimal sets of metrics to enhance evaluation of ecosystem restoration alternatives. Two MCDA methods, a multiattribute utility analysis (MAUT), and a probabilistic multicriteria acceptability analysis (ProMAA), are applied and compared for a hypothetical case study of a river restoration involving multiple stakeholders. Overall, the MCDA results in a systematic, unbiased, and transparent solution, informing restoration alternatives evaluation. The two methods provide comparable results in terms of selected metrics. However, because ProMAA can consider probability distributions for weights and utility values of metrics for each criteria, it is suggested as the best option if data uncertainty is high. Despite the increase in complexity in the metric selection process, MCDA improves upon the current ad-hoc decision practice based on the consultations with stakeholders and experts, and encourages transparent and quantitative aggregation of data and judgement, increasing the transparency of decision making in restoration projects. We believe that MCDA can enhance the overall sustainability of ecosystem by enhancing both ecological and societal needs.

Fuzzy MCDA for remediation of a uranium tailing

The Pridneprovsky Chemical Plant was a largest uranium processing enterprises, producing a huge amount of uranium residues. The Zapadnoe tailings site contains the majority of these residues. We propose a theoretical framework based on Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and fuzzy logic to analyse different remediation alternatives for the Zapadnoe tailings, in which potentially conflicting economic, radiological, social and environmental objectives are simultaneously taken into account. An objective hierarchy is built that includes all the relevant aspects. Fuzzy rather than precise values are proposed for use to evaluate remediation alternatives against the different criteria and to quantify preferences, such as the weights representing the relative importance of criteria identified in the objective hierarchy. Finally, it is proposed that remediation alternatives should be evaluated by means of a fuzzy additive multi-attribute utility function and ranked on the basis of the respective trapezoidal fuzzy number representing their overall utility.

A Multi-Criteria GIS-Based Route Selection Tool for Hazardous Material Transport: Consideration of Environmental Consequence, Traffic Congestions and Costs

Hazardous materials are substances that, if not regulated, can pose a threat to human populations and their environmental health, safety or property when transported in commerce. About 1.5 million tons of hazardous material shipments are transported by truck in the US annually, with a steady increase of approximately 5% per year. The objective of this study was to develop a routing tool for hazardous material transport in order to facilitate reduced environmental impacts and less transportation difficulties, yet would also find paths that were still compelling for the shipping carriers as a matter of trucking cost. The study started with identification of inhalation hazard impact zones and explosion protective areas around the location of hypothetical hazardous material releases, considering different parameters (i.e., chemicals characteristics, release quantities, atmospheric condition, etc.). Results showed that depending on the quantity of release, chemical, and atmospheric stability (a function of wind speed, meteorology, sky cover, time and location of accidents, etc.) the consequence of these incidents can differ. The study was extended by selection of other evaluation criteria for further investigation because health risk as an evaluation criterion would not be the only concern in selection of routes. Transportation difficulties (i.e., road blockage and congestion) were incorporated as important factor due to their indirect impact/cost on the users of transportation networks. Trucking costs were also considered as one of the primary criteria in selection of hazardous material paths; otherwise the suggested routes would have not been convincing for the shipping companies. The last but not least criterion was proximity of public places to the routes. The approach evolved from a simple framework to a complicated and efficient GIS-based tool able to investigate transportation networks of any given study area, and capable of generating best routing options for cargos. The suggested tool uses a multi-criteria-decision-making method, which considers the priorities of the decision makers in choosing the cargo routes. Comparison of the routing options based on each criterion and also the overall suitableness of the path in regards to all the criteria (using a multi-criteria-decision-making method) showed that using similar tools as the one proposed by this study can provide decision makers insights in the area of hazardous material transport. This tool shows the probable consequences of considering each path in a very easily understandable way; in the formats of maps and tables, which makes the tradeoffs of costs and risks considerably simpler, as in some cases slightly compromising on trucking cost may drastically decrease the probable health risk and/or traffic difficulties. This will not only be rewarding to the community by making cities safer places to live, but also can be beneficial to shipping companies by allowing them to advertise as environmental friendly conveyors.

Selection of solar energy for green building using superiority and inferiority multi-criteria ranking (SIR) method

Green energy is one of the key factors, driving down electricity bill and zero carbon emission generating electricity to green building. However, the climate change and environmental policies are accelerating people to use renewable energy instead of coal-fired (convention type) energy for green building that energy is not environmental friendly. Therefore, solar energy is one of the clean energy solving environmental impact and paying less in electricity fee. The method of solar energy is collecting sun from solar array and saves in battery from which provides necessary electricity to whole house with zero carbon emission. However, in the market a lot of solar arrays suppliers, the aims of this paper attempted to use superiority and inferiority multi-criteria ranking (SIR) method with 13 constraints establishing I-flows and S-flows matrices to evaluate four alternatives solar energies and determining which alternative is the best, providing power to sustainable building. Furthermore, SIR is well-known structured approach of multi-criteria decision support tools and gradually used in construction and building. The outcome of this paper significantly gives an indication to user selecting solar energy.

Adding value to performance measurement by using system dynamics and multicriteria analysis

Tese de dout., Filosofia, Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde, 2004

A Benefit-Risk Assessment Framework for Development of Clinical Guidelines in Diagnostic Radiology

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2015-12

The use of analytical hierarchy process in spatial decision support system for land use management

Geographic information systems give us the possibility to analyze, produce, and edit geographic information. Furthermore, these systems fall short on the analysis and support of complex spatial problems. Therefore, when a spatial problem, like land use management, requires a multi-criteria perspective, multi-criteria decision analysis is placed into spatial decision support systems. The analytic hierarchy process is one of many multi-criteria decision analysis methods that can be used to support these complex problems. Using its capabilities we try to develop a spatial decision support system, to help land use management. Land use management can undertake a broad spectrum of spatial decision problems. The developed decision support system had to accept as input, various formats and types of data, raster or vector format, and the vector could be polygon line or point type. The support system was designed to perform its analysis for the Zambezi river Valley in Mozambique, the study area. The possible solutions for the emerging problems had to cover the entire region. This required the system to process large sets of data, and constantly adjust to new problems’ needs. The developed decision support system, is able to process thousands of alternatives using the analytical hierarchy process, and produce an output suitability map for the problems faced.

Méthode pour l’établissement d’une liste de médicaments remboursables dans le cadre du nouveau programme d’assurance-médicaments en Côte d’Ivoire

Contexte général La Côte d'Ivoire est un pays de l’Afrique de l’Ouest qui a décidé, depuis 2001, d'étendre la couverture des prestations de santé à toute sa population. En effet, cette réforme du système de santé avait pour but de fournir, à chaque ivoirien, une couverture médicale et pharmaceutique. Toutefois, la mise en œuvre de cette réforme était difficile car, contrairement aux pays développés, les pays en développement ont un secteur « informel » échappant à la législation du travail et occupant une place importante. En conséquence, il a été recommandé qu’il y ait deux caisses d'assurance santé, une pour le secteur formel (fonctionnaires) et l'autre pour le secteur informel. Ces caisses auraient légitimité en ce qui a trait aux décisions de remboursement de médicaments. D’ores-et-déjà, il existe une mutuelle de santé appelée la Mutuelle Générale des Fonctionnaires et Agents de l'État de Côte d'Ivoire (MUGEFCI), chargée de couvrir les frais médicaux et pharmaceutiques des fonctionnaires et agents de l’Etat. Celle-ci connaît, depuis quelques années, des contraintes budgétaires. De plus, le processus actuel de remboursement des médicaments, dans cette organisation, ne prend pas en considération les valeurs implicites liées aux critères d'inscription au formulaire. Pour toutes ces raisons, la MUGEFCI souhaite se doter d’une nouvelle liste de médicaments remboursables, qui comprendrait des médicaments sécuritaires avec un impact majeur sur la santé (service médical rendu), à un coût raisonnable. Dans le cadre de cette recherche, nous avons développé une méthode de sélection des médicaments pour des fins de remboursement, dans un contexte de pays à faibles revenus. Cette approche a ensuite été appliquée dans le cadre de l’élaboration d’une nouvelle liste de médicaments remboursables pour la MUGEFCI. Méthode La méthode de sélection des médicaments remboursables, développée dans le cadre de cette recherche, est basée sur l'Analyse de Décision Multicritère (ADM). Elle s’articule autour de quatre étapes: (1) l'identification et la pondération des critères pertinents d'inscription des médicaments au formulaire (combinant revue de la littérature et recherche qualitative, suivies par la réalisation d’une expérience de choix discrets); (2) la détermination d'un ensemble de traitements qui sont éligibles à un remboursement prioritaire; (3) l’attribution de scores aux traitements selon leurs performances sur les niveaux de variation de chaque critère, et (4) le classement des traitements par ordre de priorité de remboursement (classement des traitements selon un score global, obtenu après avoir additionné les scores pondérés des traitements). Après avoir défini la liste des médicaments remboursables en priorité, une analyse d’impact budgétaire a été réalisée. Celle-ci a été effectuée afin de déterminer le coût par patient lié à l'utilisation des médicaments figurant sur la liste, selon la perspective de la MUGEFCI. L’horizon temporel était de 1 an et l'analyse portait sur tous les traitements admissibles à un remboursement prioritaire par la MUGEFCI. En ce qui concerne la population cible, elle était composée de personnes assurées par la MUGEFCI et ayant un diagnostic positif de maladie prioritaire en 2008. Les coûts considérés incluaient ceux des consultations médicales, des tests de laboratoire et des médicaments. Le coût par patient, résultant de l'utilisation des médicaments figurant sur la liste, a ensuite été comparé à la part des dépenses par habitant (per capita) allouée à la santé en Côte d’Ivoire. Cette comparaison a été effectuée pour déterminer un seuil en deçà duquel la nouvelle liste des médicaments remboursables en priorité était abordable pour la MUGEFCI. Résultats Selon les résultats de l’expérience de choix discrets, réalisée auprès de professionnels de la santé en Côte d'Ivoire, le rapport coût-efficacité et la sévérité de la maladie sont les critères les plus importants pour le remboursement prioritaire des médicaments. Cela se traduit par une préférence générale pour les antipaludiques, les traitements pour l'asthme et les antibiotiques indiqués pour les infections urinaires. En outre, les résultats de l’analyse d’impact budgétaire suggèrent que le coût par patient lié à l'utilisation des médicaments figurant sur la liste varierait entre 40 et 160 dollars américains. Etant donné que la part des dépenses par habitant allouées à la santé en Côte d’Ivoire est de 66 dollars américains, l’on pourrait conclure que la nouvelle liste de médicaments remboursables serait abordable lorsque l'impact économique réel de l’utilisation des médicaments par patient est en deçà de ces 66 dollars américains. Au delà de ce seuil, la MUGEFCI devra sélectionner les médicaments remboursables en fonction de leur rang ainsi que le coût par patient associé à l’utilisation des médicaments. Plus précisément, cette sélection commencera à partir des traitements dans le haut de la liste de médicaments prioritaires et prendra fin lorsque les 66 dollars américains seront épuisés. Conclusion Cette étude fait la démonstration de ce qu’il est possible d'utiliser l’analyse de décision multicritère pour développer un formulaire pour les pays à faibles revenus, la Côte d’Ivoire en l’occurrence. L'application de cette méthode est un pas en avant vers la transparence dans l'élaboration des politiques de santé dans les pays en développement.

Using an IDMI methodology to make multi-criteria decisions

Multi-criteria decisions usually require measurement or evaluation of performance in different units and their mix by application of weighting factors. This approach leads to potential manipulation of the results as a direct consequence of the applied weightings. In this paper a mechanism has been proposed to overcome this problem. It is known as the : Interlink Decision Making Index (IDMI) and has all the desired features: simple, interlink (all criteria) and automatically and quantified influence of critical criteria (i.e. no human weighting needed). The IDMI is capable of reflecting the total merits of a particular option once the normal decision making criteria and (up to two) critical criteria (CC) have been chosen. Then, without arbitrarily weighting criteria, comparison and selection of the best possible option can be made. Simple software has been developed to do this numerical transfer and graphic presentation. Two hypothetical examples are presented in the paper to demonstrate the application of the IDMI concept and its advantages over the traditional "tabular and weighting method" in the decision making process.

Proposta para indicação de áreas para a implantação de aterro sanitário no município de Bauru-SP, utilizando análise multi critério de decisão e técnicas de geoprocessamento

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Continuous multi-criteria methods for crop and soil conservation planning on La Colacha (Río Cuarto, Province of Cordoba, Argentina)

Agro-areas of Arroyos Menores (La Colacha) west and south of Rand south of R?o Cuarto (Prov. of Cordoba, Argentina) basins are very fertile but have high soil loses. Extreme rain events, inundations and other severe erosions forming gullies demand urgently actions in this area to avoid soil degradation and erosion supporting good levels of agro production. The authors first improved hydrologic data on La Colacha, evaluated the systems of soil uses and actions that could be recommended considering the relevant aspects of the study area and applied decision support systems (DSS) with mathematic tools for planning of defences and uses of soils in these areas. These were conducted here using multi-criteria models, in multi-criteria decision making (MCDM); first of discrete MCDM to chose among global types of use of soils, and then of continuous MCDM to evaluate and optimize combined actions, including repartition of soil use and the necessary levels of works for soil conservation and for hydraulic management to conserve against erosion these basins. Relatively global solutions for La Colacha area have been defined and were optimised by Linear Programming in Goal Programming forms that are presented as Weighted or Lexicographic Goal Programming and as Compromise Programming. The decision methods used are described, indicating algorithms used, and examples for some representative scenarios on La Colacha area are given.

Dominance Measuring Method Performance under Incomplete Information about Weights.

In multi-attribute utility theory, it is often not easy to elicit precise values for the scaling weights representing the relative importance of criteria. A very widespread approach is to gather incomplete information. A recent approach for dealing with such situations is to use information about each alternative?s intensity of dominance, known as dominance measuring methods. Different dominancemeasuring methods have been proposed, and simulation studies have been carried out to compare these methods with each other and with other approaches but only when ordinal information about weights is available. In this paper, we useMonte Carlo simulation techniques to analyse the performance of and adapt such methods to deal with weight intervals, weights fitting independent normal probability distributions orweights represented by fuzzy numbers.Moreover, dominance measuringmethod performance is also compared with a widely used methodology dealing with incomplete information on weights, the stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA). SMAA is based on exploring the weight space to describe the evaluations that would make each alternative the preferred one.

Planning and decision-making for energy recovery from waste at the sub-regional level

This research project has developed a novel decision support system using Geographical Information Systems and Multi Criteria Decision Analysis and used it to develop and evaluate energy-from-waste policy options. The system was validated by applying it to the UK administrative areas of Cornwall and Warwickshire. Different strategies have been defined by the size and number of the facilities, as well as the technology chosen. Using sensitivity on the results from the decision support system, it was found that key decision criteria included those affected by cost, energy efficiency, transport impacts and air/dioxin emissions. The conclusions of this work are that distributed small-scale energy-from-waste facilities score most highly overall and that scale is more important than technology design in determining overall policy impact. This project makes its primary contribution to energy-from-waste planning by its development of a Decision Support System that can be used to assist waste disposal authorities to identify preferred energy-from-waste options that have been tailored specifically to the socio-geographic characteristics of their jurisdictional areas. The project also highlights the potential of energy-from-waste policies that are seldom given enough attention to in the UK, namely those of a smaller-scale and distributed nature that often have technology designed specifically to cater for this market.

UTILIZATION OF GIS AND SPATIAL ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES IN ARTISANAL AND SMALL SCALE MINING TO LOCATE A CENTRALIZED PROCESSING CENTRE

One of the global phenomena with threats to environmental health and safety is artisanal mining. There are ambiguities in the manner in which an ore-processing facility operates which hinders the mining capacity of these miners in Ghana. These problems are reviewed on the basis of current socio-economic, health and safety, environmental, and use of rudimentary technologies which limits fair-trade deals to miners. This research sought to use an established data-driven, geographic information (GIS)-based system employing the spatial analysis approach for locating a centralized processing facility within the Wassa Amenfi-Prestea Mining Area (WAPMA) in the Western region of Ghana. A spatial analysis technique that utilizes ModelBuilder within the ArcGIS geoprocessing environment through suitability modeling will systematically and simultaneously analyze a geographical dataset of selected criteria. The spatial overlay analysis methodology and the multi-criteria decision analysis approach were selected to identify the most preferred locations to site a processing facility. For an optimal site selection, seven major criteria including proximity to settlements, water resources, artisanal mining sites, roads, railways, tectonic zones, and slopes were considered to establish a suitable location for a processing facility. Site characterizations and environmental considerations, incorporating identified constraints such as proximity to large scale mines, forest reserves and state lands to site an appropriate position were selected. The analysis was limited to criteria that were selected and relevant to the area under investigation. Saaty’s analytical hierarchy process was utilized to derive relative importance weights of the criteria and then a weighted linear combination technique was applied to combine the factors for determination of the degree of potential site suitability. The final map output indicates estimated potential sites identified for the establishment of a facility centre. The results obtained provide intuitive areas suitable for consideration

Spatial multicriteria decision analysis to potential beekeeping assessment. Case study: Montesinho Natural Park (Portugal)

The Multicriteria decision analysis is a tool to support decision-making in the identification of areas with the utmost beekeeping potential. This paper design a GIS multicriteria approach to assess the beekeeping potential. The development of a conceptual model structure requires the participation of stakeholders and experts in that process. The spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) allowed defining the potential beekeeping map. The resulting maps can be used by the beekeepers associations to easily select the more suitable areas for the apiaries location or relocation and avoid prohibited areas by legal requirements.