Global Linear Instability at the Dawn of its 4th Decade: A List of Challenges (A Practical Guide on how to Contain the Euphoria and Avoid the Oversell)

Global linear instability theory is concerned with the temporal or spatial development of small-amplitude perturbations superposed upon laminar steady or time-periodic threedimensional flows, which are inhomogeneous in two (and periodic in one) or all three spatial directions.1 The theory addresses flows developing in complex geometries, in which the parallel or weakly nonparallel basic flow approximation invoked by classic linear stability theory does not hold. As such, global linear theory is called to fill the gap in research into stability and transition in flows over or through complex geometries. Historically, global linear instability has been (and still is) concerned with solution of multi-dimensional eigenvalue problems; the maturing of non-modal linear instability ideas in simple parallel flows during the last decade of last century2–4 has given rise to investigation of transient growth scenarios in an ever increasing variety of complex flows. After a brief exposition of the theory, connections are sought with established approaches for structure identification in flows, such as the proper orthogonal decomposition and topology theory in the laminar regime and the open areas for future research, mainly concerning turbulent and three-dimensional flows, are highlighted. Recent results obtained in our group are reported in both the time-stepping and the matrix-forming approaches to global linear theory. In the first context, progress has been made in implementing a Jacobian-Free Newton Krylov method into a standard finite-volume aerodynamic code, such that global linear instability results may now be obtained in compressible flows of aeronautical interest. In the second context a new stable very high-order finite difference method is implemented for the spatial discretization of the operators describing the spatial BiGlobal EVP, PSE-3D and the TriGlobal EVP; combined with sparse matrix treatment, all these problems may now be solved on standard desktop computers.

Dominance Measuring Method Performance under Incomplete Information about Weights.

In multi-attribute utility theory, it is often not easy to elicit precise values for the scaling weights representing the relative importance of criteria. A very widespread approach is to gather incomplete information. A recent approach for dealing with such situations is to use information about each alternative?s intensity of dominance, known as dominance measuring methods. Different dominancemeasuring methods have been proposed, and simulation studies have been carried out to compare these methods with each other and with other approaches but only when ordinal information about weights is available. In this paper, we useMonte Carlo simulation techniques to analyse the performance of and adapt such methods to deal with weight intervals, weights fitting independent normal probability distributions orweights represented by fuzzy numbers.Moreover, dominance measuringmethod performance is also compared with a widely used methodology dealing with incomplete information on weights, the stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA). SMAA is based on exploring the weight space to describe the evaluations that would make each alternative the preferred one.

A MAUT approach for reusing ontologies

Knowledge resource reuse has become a popular approach within the ontology engineering field, mainly because it can speed up the ontology development process, saving time and money and promoting the application of good practices. The NeOn Methodology provides guidelines for reuse. These guidelines include the selection of the most appropriate knowledge resources for reuse in ontology development. This is a complex decision-making problem where different conflicting objectives, like the reuse cost, understandability, integration workload and reliability, have to be taken into account simultaneously. GMAA is a PC-based decision support system based on an additive multi-attribute utility model that is intended to allay the operational difficulties involved in the Decision Analysis methodology. The paper illustrates how it can be applied to select multimedia ontologies for reuse to develop a new ontology in the multimedia domain. It also demonstrates that the sensitivity analyses provided by GMAA are useful tools for making a final recommendation.

MOIRA-PLUS use in decision making on the long-term management of contaminated freshwater bodies and catchments

In the mid-long-term after a nuclear accident, the contamination of drinking water sources, fish and other aquatic foodstuffs, irrigation supplies and people?s exposure during recreational activities may create considerable public concern, even though dose assessment may in certain situations indicate lesser importance than for other sources, as clearly experienced in the aftermath of past accidents. In such circumstances there are a number of available countermeasure options, ranging from specific chemical treatment of lakes to bans on fish ingestion or on the use of water for crop irrigation. The potential actions can be broadly grouped into four main categories, chemical, biological, physical and social. In some cases a combination of actions may be the optimal strategy and a decision support system (DSS) like MOIRA-PLUS can be of great help to optimise a decision. A further option is of course not to take any remedial actions, although this may also have significant socio-economic repercussions which should be adequately evaluated. MOIRA-PLUS is designed to allow for a reliable assessment of the long-term evolution of the radiological situation and of feasible alternative rehabilitation strategies, including an objective evaluation of their social, economic and ecological impacts in a rational and comprehensive manner. MOIRA-PLUS also features a decision analysis methodology, making use of multi-attribute analysis, which can take into account the preferences and needs of different types of stakeholders. The main functions and elements of the system are described summarily. Also the conclusions from end-user?s experiences with the system are discussed, including exercises involving the organizations responsible for emergency management and the affected services, as well as different local and regional stakeholders. MOIRAPLUS has proven to be a mature system, user friendly and relatively easy to set up. It can help to better decisionmaking by enabling a realistic evaluation of the complete impacts of possible recovery strategies. Also, the interaction with stakeholders has allowed identifying improvements of the system that have been recently implemented.

A fuzzy MCDA framework for safety assessment in the remediation of a uranium mill tailings site in Ukraine

The Pridneprovsky Chemical Plant was one of the largest uranium processing enterprises in the former USSR, producing a huge amount of uranium residues. The Zapadnoe tailings site contains most of these residues. We propose a theoretical framework based on multicriteria decision analysis and fuzzy logic to analyze different remediation alternatives for the Zapadnoe tailings, which simultaneously accounts for potentially conflicting economic, social and environmental objectives. We build an objective hierarchy that includes all the relevant aspects. Fuzzy rather than precise values are proposed for use to evaluate remediation alternatives against the different criteria and to quantify preferences, such as the weights representing the relative importance of criteria identified in the objective hierarchy. Finally, we suggest that remediation alternatives should be evaluated by means of a fuzzy additive multi-attribute utility function and ranked on the basis of the respective trapezoidal fuzzy number representing their overall utility.

A Maut aprroach for reusing domain ontologies on the basis of the NeOn Methodlogy

Knowledge resource reuse has become a popular approach within the ontology engineering field, mainly because it can speed up the ontology development process, saving time and money and promoting the application of good practices. The NeOn Methodology provides guidelines for reuse. These guidelines include the selection of the most appropriate knowledge resources for reuse in ontology development. This is a complex decision-making problem where different conflicting objectives, like the reuse cost, understandability, integration workload and reliability, have to be taken into account simultaneously. GMAA is a PC-based decision support system based on an additive multi-attribute utility model that is intended to allay the operational difficulties involved in the Decision Analysis methodology. The paper illustrates how it can be applied to select multimedia ontologies for reuse to develop a new ontology in the multimedia domain. It also demonstrates that the sensitivity analyses provided by GMAA are useful tools for making a final recommendation.

Advances in global instability computations: from incompressible to hypersonic flow

Esta tesis constituye un gran avance en el conocimiento del estudio y análisis de inestabilidades hidrodinámicas desde un punto de vista físico y teórico, como consecuencia de haber desarrollado innovadoras técnicas para la resolución computacional eficiente y precisa de la parte principal del espectro correspondiente a los problemas de autovalores (EVP) multidimensionales que gobiernan la inestabilidad de flujos con dos o tres direcciones espaciales inhomogéneas, denominados problemas de estabilidad global lineal. En el contexto del trabajo de desarrollo de herramientas computacionales presentado en la tesis, la discretización mediante métodos de diferencias finitas estables de alto orden de los EVP bidimensionales y tridimensionales que se derivan de las ecuaciones de Navier-Stokes linealizadas sobre flujos con dos o tres direcciones espaciales inhomogéneas, ha permitido una aceleración de cuatro órdenes de magnitud en su resolución. Esta mejora de eficiencia numérica se ha conseguido gracias al hecho de que usando estos esquemas de diferencias finitas, técnicas eficientes de resolución de problemas lineales son utilizables, explotando el alto nivel de dispersión o alto número de elementos nulos en las matrices involucradas en los problemas tratados. Como más notable consecuencia cabe destacar que la resolución de EVPs multidimensionales de inestabilidad global, que hasta la fecha necesitaban de superordenadores, se ha podido realizar en ordenadores de sobremesa. Además de la solución de problemas de estabilidad global lineal, el mencionado desarrollo numérico facilitó la extensión de las ecuaciones de estabilidad parabolizadas (PSE) lineales y no lineales para analizar la inestabilidad de flujos que dependen fuertemente en dos direcciones espaciales y suavemente en la tercera con las ecuaciones de estabilidad parabolizadas tridimensionales (PSE-3D). Precisamente la capacidad de extensión del novedoso algoritmo PSE-3D para el estudio de interacciones no lineales de los modos de estabilidad, desarrollado íntegramente en esta tesis, permite la predicción de transición en flujos complejos de gran interés industrial y por lo tanto extiende el concepto clásico de PSE, el cuál ha sido empleado exitosamente durante las pasadas tres décadas en el mismo contexto para problemas de capa límite bidimensional. Típicos ejemplos de flujos incompresibles se han analizado en este trabajo sin la necesidad de recurrir a restrictivas presuposiciones usadas en el pasado. Se han estudiado problemas vorticales como es el caso de un vórtice aislado o sistemas de vórtices simulando la estela de alas, en los que la homogeneidad axial no se impone y así se puede considerar la difusión viscosa del flujo. Además, se ha estudiado el chorro giratorio turbulento, cuya inestabilidad se utiliza para mejorar las características de funcionamiento de combustores. En la tesis se abarcan adicionalmente problemas de flujos compresibles. Se presenta el estudio de inestabilidad de flujos de borde de ataque a diferentes velocidades de vuelo. También se analiza la estela formada por un elemento rugoso aislado en capa límite supersónica e hipersónica, mostrando excelentes comparaciones con resultados obtenidos mediante simulación numérica directa. Finalmente, nuevas inestabilidades se han identificado en el flujo hipersónico a Mach 7 alrededor de un cono elíptico que modela el vehículo de pruebas en vuelo HIFiRE-5. Los resultados comparan favorablemente con experimentos en vuelo, lo que subraya aún más el potencial de las metodologías de análisis de estabilidad desarrolladas en esta tesis. ABSTRACT The present thesis constitutes a step forward in advancing the frontiers of knowledge of fluid flow instability from a physical point of view, as a consequence of having been successful in developing groundbreaking methodologies for the efficient and accurate computation of the leading part of the spectrum pertinent to multi-dimensional eigenvalue problems (EVP) governing instability of flows with two or three inhomogeneous spatial directions. In the context of the numerical work presented in this thesis, the discretization of the spatial operator resulting from linearization of the Navier-Stokes equations around flows with two or three inhomogeneous spatial directions by variable-high-order stable finite-difference methods has permitted a speedup of four orders of magnitude in the solution of the corresponding two- and three-dimensional EVPs. This improvement of numerical performance has been achieved thanks to the high-sparsity level offered by the high-order finite-difference schemes employed for the discretization of the operators. This permitted use of efficient sparse linear algebra techniques without sacrificing accuracy and, consequently, solutions being obtained on typical workstations, as opposed to the previously employed supercomputers. Besides solution of the two- and three-dimensional EVPs of global linear instability, this development paved the way for the extension of the (linear and nonlinear) Parabolized Stability Equations (PSE) to analyze instability of flows which depend in a strongly-coupled inhomogeneous manner on two spatial directions and weakly on the third. Precisely the extensibility of the novel PSE-3D algorithm developed in the framework of the present thesis to study nonlinear flow instability permits transition prediction in flows of industrial interest, thus extending the classic PSE concept which has been successfully employed in the same context to boundary-layer type of flows over the last three decades. Typical examples of incompressible flows, the instability of which was analyzed in the present thesis without the need to resort to the restrictive assumptions used in the past, range from isolated vortices, and systems thereof, in which axial homogeneity is relaxed to consider viscous diffusion, as well as turbulent swirling jets, the instability of which is exploited in order to improve flame-holding properties of combustors. The instability of compressible subsonic and supersonic leading edge flows has been solved, and the wake of an isolated roughness element in a supersonic and hypersonic boundary-layer has also been analyzed with respect to its instability: excellent agreement with direct numerical simulation results has been obtained in all cases. Finally, instability analysis of Mach number 7 ow around an elliptic cone modeling the HIFiRE-5 flight test vehicle has unraveled flow instabilities near the minor-axis centerline, results comparing favorably with flight test predictions.

Fuzzy MCDA for remediation of a uranium tailing

The Pridneprovsky Chemical Plant was a largest uranium processing enterprises, producing a huge amount of uranium residues. The Zapadnoe tailings site contains the majority of these residues. We propose a theoretical framework based on Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and fuzzy logic to analyse different remediation alternatives for the Zapadnoe tailings, in which potentially conflicting economic, radiological, social and environmental objectives are simultaneously taken into account. An objective hierarchy is built that includes all the relevant aspects. Fuzzy rather than precise values are proposed for use to evaluate remediation alternatives against the different criteria and to quantify preferences, such as the weights representing the relative importance of criteria identified in the objective hierarchy. Finally, it is proposed that remediation alternatives should be evaluated by means of a fuzzy additive multi-attribute utility function and ranked on the basis of the respective trapezoidal fuzzy number representing their overall utility.

Alternativas de análise para experimentos G × E multiatributo

Geralmente, nos experimentos genótipo por ambiente (G × E) é comum observar o comportamento dos genótipos em relação a distintos atributos nos ambientes considerados. A análise deste tipo de experimentos tem sido abordada amplamente para o caso de um único atributo. Nesta tese são apresentadas algumas alternativas de análise considerando genótipos, ambientes e atributos simultaneamente. A primeira, é baseada no método de mistura de máxima verossimilhança de agrupamento - Mixclus e a análise de componentes principais de 3 modos - 3MPCA, que permitem a análise de tabelas de tripla entrada, estes dois métodos têm sido muito usados na área da psicologia e da química, mas pouco na agricultura. A segunda, é uma metodologia que combina, o modelo de efeitos aditivos com interação multiplicativa - AMMI, modelo eficiente para a análise de experimentos (G × E) com um atributo e a análise de procrustes generalizada, que permite comparar configurações de pontos e proporcionar uma medida numérica de quanto elas diferem. Finalmente, é apresentada uma alternativa para realizar imputação de dados nos experimentos (G × E), pois, uma situação muito frequente nestes experimentos, é a presença de dados faltantes. Conclui-se que as metodologias propostas constituem ferramentas úteis para a análise de experimentos (G × E) multiatributo.

Theoretical foundations of neural networks

Neural networks have often been motivated by superficial analogy with biological nervous systems. Recently, however, it has become widely recognised that the effective application of neural networks requires instead a deeper understanding of the theoretical foundations of these models. Insight into neural networks comes from a number of fields including statistical pattern recognition, computational learning theory, statistics, information geometry and statistical mechanics. As an illustration of the importance of understanding the theoretical basis for neural network models, we consider their application to the solution of multi-valued inverse problems. We show how a naive application of the standard least-squares approach can lead to very poor results, and how an appreciation of the underlying statistical goals of the modelling process allows the development of a more general and more powerful formalism which can tackle the problem of multi-modality.

Levonorgestrel intrauterine system versus medical therapy for menorrhagia

Background - Menorrhagia is a common problem, yet evidence to inform decisions about therapy is limited. In a pragmatic, multicenter, randomized trial, we compared the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system (levonorgestrel-IUS) with usual medical treatment in women with menorrhagia who presented to their primary care providers. Methods - We randomly assigned 571 women with menorrhagia to treatment with levonorgestrel-IUS or usual medical treatment (tranexamic acid, mefenamic acid, combined estrogen–progestogen, or progesterone alone). The primary outcome was the patient-reported score on the Menorrhagia Multi-Attribute Scale (MMAS) (ranging from 0 to 100, with lower scores indicating greater severity), assessed over a 2-year period. Secondary outcomes included general quality-of-life and sexual-activity scores and surgical intervention. Results - MMAS scores improved from baseline to 6 months in both the levonorgestrel-IUS group and the usual-treatment group (mean increase, 32.7 and 21.4 points, respectively; P<0.001 for both comparisons). The improvements were maintained over a 2-year period but were significantly greater in the levonorgestrel-IUS group than in the usual-treatment group (mean between-group difference, 13.4 points; 95% confidence interval, 9.9 to 16.9; P<0.001). Improvements in all MMAS domains (practical difficulties, social life, family life, work and daily routine, psychological well-being, and physical health) were significantly greater in the levonorgestrel-IUS group than in the usual-treatment group, and this was also true for seven of the eight quality-of-life domains. At 2 years, more of the women were still using the levonorgestrel-IUS than were undergoing the usual medical treatment (64% vs. 38%, P<0.001). There were no significant between-group differences in the rates of surgical intervention or sexual-activity scores. There were no significant differences in serious adverse events between groups. Conclusions - In women with menorrhagia who presented to primary care providers, the levonorgestrel-IUS was more effective than usual medical treatment in reducing the effect of heavy menstrual bleeding on quality of life. (Funded by the National Institute of Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme; ECLIPSE Controlled-Trials.com number, ISRCTN86566246.)

Levonorgestrel intrauterine system versus medical therapy for menorrhagia

ABSTRACT: Menorrhagia is a common problem that interferes with a woman’s physical, emotional, and social life. Evidence to guide physicians for decision about therapy for heavy menstrual bleeding is lacking. One treatment option, the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system (levonorgestrel-IUS), has been available in the United States since 2009. Updated meta-analyses comparing the levonorgestrel-IUS with nonhormonal and hormonal treatments showed that the levonorgestrel-IUS produced a greater reduction in menstrual blood loss at 3 to 12 months of follow-up. It is not clear whether these short-term benefits persist. Moreover, the rates of discontinuation of the levonorgestrel-IUS at 2 years are as high as 28%, and effects on bleeding-related quality of life are not known. This pragmatic, multicenter, randomized trial compared the effectiveness of the levonorgestrel-IUS with that of usual medical treatment among women with menorrhagia in a primary care setting. A total of 571 women with menorrhagia were randomized to treatment with levonorgestrel-IUS (n = 285) or usual medical treatment (n = 286). Usual treatment was tranexamic acid, mefenamic acid, combined estrogen-progestogen, or progesterone alone. The primary study outcome measure was the patient-reported score on the condition-specific Menorrhagia Multi-Attribute Scale (MMAS) assessed over a 2-year period. The MMAS scores range from 0 to 100, with lower scores indicating greater severity. Summary MMAS scores were assessed at 6, 12, and 24 months. Secondary outcome measures included general health-related quality of life, sexual-activity scores, and surgical intervention. There was a significant improvement in total MMAS scores from baseline to 6 months in both the levonorgestrel-IUS group and the usual-treatment group; the mean increase was 32.7 and 21.4 points, respectively; P < 0.001 for both comparisons. Over the 2-year follow-up, improvements were maintained in both groups but were significantly greater in the levonorgestrel-IUS group (mean between-group difference, 13.4 points; 95% confidence interval, 9.9–16.9; P < 0.001). Significantly greater improvements in all MMAS domains (practical difficulties, social life, psychological health, physical health, work and daily routine, and family life and relationships) occurred with the levonorgestrel-IUS than with the usual treatment (P < 0.001 with the use of a test for trend). This was also found for 7 of the 8 quality-of-life domains. At the 2-year end point, almost twice as many women were still using the levonorgestrel-IUS than were those receiving the usual medical treatment (64% vs 38%, P < 0.001). No significant between-group differences were noted in the rates of surgical intervention or sexual-activity scores as well as in the frequency of serious adverse events. These data show that levonorgestrel-IUS is more effective than usual medical treatment in improving the quality of life of women with menorrhagia in a primary care setting.

A diversity dilemma in evolutionary markets

Markets are useful mechanisms for performing resource al- location in fully decentralised computational and other systems, since they can possess a range of desirable properties, such as efficiency, decentralisation, robustness and scalability. In this paper we investigate the behaviour of co-evolving evolutionary market agents as adaptive offer generators for sellers in a multi-attribute posted-offer market. We demonstrate that the evolutionary approach enables sellers to automatically position themselves in market niches, created by heterogeneous buyers. We find that a trade-off exists for the evolutionary sellers between maintaining high population diversity to facilitate movement between niches and low diversity to exploit the current niche and maximise cumulative payoff. We characterise the trade-off from the perspective of the system as a whole, and subsequently from that of an individual seller. Our results highlight a decision on risk aversion for resource providers, but crucially we show that rational self-interested sellers would not adopt the behaviour likely to lead to the ideal result from the system point of view.

Reduction Measurements for Calculation in Fuzzy Experiment Scheme

The papers is dedicated to the questions of modeling and basing super-resolution measuring- calculating systems in the context of the conception “device + PC = new possibilities”. By the authors of the article the new mathematical method of solution of the multi-criteria optimization problems was developed. The method is based on physic-mathematical formalism of reduction of fuzzy disfigured measurements. It is shown, that determinative part is played by mathematical properties of physical models of the object, which is measured, surroundings, measuring components of measuring-calculating systems and theirs cooperation as well as the developed mathematical method of processing and interpretation of measurements problem solution.

A randomised controlled trial of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system in primary care against standard treatment for menorrhagia:the ECLIPSE trial

BACKGROUND: Heavy menstrual bleeding (HMB) is a common problem, yet evidence to inform decisions about initial medical treatment is limited. OBJECTIVES: To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system (LNG-IUS) (Mirena(®), Bayer) compared with usual medical treatment, with exploration of women's perspectives on treatment. DESIGN: A pragmatic, multicentre randomised trial with an economic evaluation and a longitudinal qualitative study. SETTING: Women who presented in primary care. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 571 women with HMB. A purposeful sample of 27 women who were randomised or ineligible owing to treatment preference participated in semistructured face-to-face interviews around 2 and 12 months after commencing treatment. INTERVENTIONS: LNG-IUS or usual medical treatment (tranexamic acid, mefenamic acid, combined oestrogen-progestogen or progesterone alone). Women could subsequently swap or cease their allocated treatment. OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the patient-reported score on the Menorrhagia Multi-Attribute Scale (MMAS) assessed over a 2-year period and then again at 5 years. Secondary outcomes included general quality of life (QoL), sexual activity, surgical intervention and safety. Data were analysed using iterative constant comparison. A state transition model-based cost-utility analysis was undertaken alongside the randomised trial. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were derived from the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) and the Short Form questionnaire-6 Dimensions (SF-6D). The intention-to-treat analyses were reported as cost per QALY gained. Uncertainty was explored by conducting both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: The MMAS total scores improved significantly in both groups at all time points, but were significantly greater for the LNG-IUS than for usual treatment [mean difference over 2 years was 13.4 points, 95% confidence interval (CI) 9.9 to 16.9 points; p < 0.001]. However, this difference between groups was reduced and no longer significant by 5 years (mean difference in scores 3.9 points, 95% CI -0.6 to 8.3 points; p = 0.09). By 5 years, only 47% of women had a LNG-IUS in place and 15% were still taking usual medical treatment. Five-year surgery rates were low, at 20%, and were similar, irrespective of initial treatments. There were no significant differences in serious adverse events between groups. Using the EQ-5D, at 2 years, the relative cost-effectiveness of the LNG-IUS compared with usual medical treatment was £1600 per QALY, which by 5 years was reduced to £114 per QALY. Using the SF-6D, usual medical treatment dominates the LNG-IUS. The qualitative findings show that women's experiences and expectations of medical treatments for HMB vary considerably and change over time. Women had high expectations of a prompt effect from medical treatments. CONCLUSIONS: The LNG-IUS, compared with usual medical therapies, resulted in greater improvement over 2 years in women's assessments of the effect of HMB on their daily routine, including work, social and family life, and psychological and physical well-being. At 5 years, the differences were no longer significant. A similar low proportion of women required surgical intervention in both groups. The LNG-IUS is cost-effective in both the short and medium term, using the method generally recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Using the alternative measures to value QoL will have a considerable impact on cost-effectiveness decisions. It will be important to explore the clinical and health-care trajectories of the ECLIPSE (clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system in primary care against standard treatment for menorrhagia) trial participants to 10 years, by which time half of the cohort will have reached menopause. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN86566246. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 88. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.