Aerodynamic drag modeling of alpine skiers performing giant slalom turns.

PURPOSE: Aerodynamic drag plays an important role in performance for athletes practicing sports that involve high-velocity motions. In giant slalom, the skier is continuously changing his/her body posture, and this affects the energy dissipated in aerodynamic drag. It is therefore important to quantify this energy to understand the dynamic behavior of the skier. The aims of this study were to model the aerodynamic drag of alpine skiers in giant slalom simulated conditions and to apply these models in a field experiment to estimate energy dissipated through aerodynamic drag. METHODS: The aerodynamic characteristics of 15 recreational male and female skiers were measured in a wind tunnel while holding nine different skiing-specific postures. The drag and the frontal area were recorded simultaneously for each posture. Four generalized and two individualized models of the drag coefficient were built, using different sets of parameters. These models were subsequently applied in a field study designed to compare the aerodynamic energy losses between a dynamic and a compact skiing technique. RESULTS: The generalized models estimated aerodynamic drag with an accuracy of between 11.00% and 14.28%, and the individualized models estimated aerodynamic drag with an accuracy between 4.52% and 5.30%. The individualized model used for the field study showed that using a dynamic technique led to 10% more aerodynamic drag energy loss than using a compact technique. DISCUSSION: The individualized models were capable of discriminating different techniques performed by advanced skiers and seemed more accurate than the generalized models. The models presented here offer a simple yet accurate method to estimate the aerodynamic drag acting upon alpine skiers while rapidly moving through the range of positions typical to turning technique.

Demographic effects of extreme winter weather in the barn owl.

Extreme weather events can lead to immediate catastrophic mortality. Due to their rare occurrence, however, the long-term impacts of such events for ecological processes are unclear. We examined the effect of extreme winters on barn owl (Tyto alba) survival and reproduction in Switzerland over a 68-year period (approximately 20 generations). This long-term data set allowed us to compare events that occurred only once in several decades to more frequent events. Winter harshness explained 17 and 49% of the variance in juvenile and adult survival, respectively, and the two harshest winters were associated with major population crashes caused by simultaneous low juvenile and adult survival. These two winters increased the correlation between juvenile and adult survival from 0.63 to 0.69. Overall, survival decreased non-linearly with increasing winter harshness in adults, and linearly in juveniles. In contrast, brood size was not related to the harshness of the preceding winter. Our results thus reveal complex interactions between climate and demography. The relationship between weather and survival observed during regular years is likely to underestimate the importance of climate variation for population dynamics.

Validation of the potentially avoidable hospital readmission rate as a routine indicator of the quality of hospital care

BACKGROUND: The hospital readmission rate has been proposed as an important outcome indicator computable from routine statistics. However, most commonly used measures raise conceptual issues. OBJECTIVES: We sought to evaluate the usefulness of the computerized algorithm for identifying avoidable readmissions on the basis of minimum bias, criterion validity, and measurement precision. RESEARCH DESIGN AND SUBJECTS: A total of 131,809 hospitalizations of patients discharged alive from 49 hospitals were used to compare the predictive performance of risk adjustment methods. A subset of a random sample of 570 medical records of discharge/readmission pairs in 12 hospitals were reviewed to estimate the predictive value of the screening of potentially avoidable readmissions. MEASURES: Potentially avoidable readmissions, defined as readmissions related to a condition of the previous hospitalization and not expected as part of a program of care and occurring within 30 days after the previous discharge, were identified by a computerized algorithm. Unavoidable readmissions were considered as censored events. RESULTS: A total of 5.2% of hospitalizations were followed by a potentially avoidable readmission, 17% of them in a different hospital. The predictive value of the screen was 78%; 27% of screened readmissions were judged clearly avoidable. The correlation between the hospital rate of clearly avoidable readmission and all readmissions rate, potentially avoidable readmissions rate or the ratio of observed to expected readmissions were respectively 0.42, 0.56 and 0.66. Adjustment models using clinical information performed better. CONCLUSION: Adjusted rates of potentially avoidable readmissions are scientifically sound enough to warrant their inclusion in hospital quality surveillance.

On the number of independent cultural traits carried by individuals and populations.

In species subject to individual and social learning, each individual is likely to express a certain number of different cultural traits acquired during its lifetime. If the process of trait innovation and transmission reaches a steady state in the population, the number of different cultural traits carried by an individual converges to some stationary distribution. We call this the trait-number distribution. In this paper, we derive the trait-number distributions for both individuals and populations when cultural traits are independent of each other. Our results suggest that as the number of cultural traits becomes large, the trait-number distributions approach Poisson distributions so that their means characterize cultural diversity in the population. We then analyse how the mean trait number varies at both the individual and population levels as a function of various demographic features, such as population size and subdivision, and social learning rules, such as conformism and anti-conformism. Diversity at the individual and population levels, as well as at the level of cultural homogeneity within groups, depends critically on the details of population demography and the individual and social learning rules.

The role of primary care in the prevention and control of healthcare associated infections

Little research has been conducted to date on the role of primary health care (PHC) in the prevention of healthcare associated infections (HCAIs). The present article is a theoretical study of the principle of primum non nocere and aims to promote reflection on the role of PHC in HCAI prevention with emphasis on practical recommendations. The indirect and direct roles of PHC in HCAI prevention are debated in light of this guiding principle. With respect to the indirect role of PHC, we discuss the issues of hospital-centrism and ambulatory care-sensitive conditions. The article outlines a number of challenges faced by health services related to PHC’s direct role in HCAI prevention, highlights seven key components of HCAI prevention programmes within the PHC sphere and provides practical recommendations for HCAI control and prevention.


Predicted effects of small decreases in energy expenditure on weight gain in adult women.

Small daily positive energy imbalances of 200 to 800 kJ (about 50 to 200 kcal) due to reduced resting energy expenditure (REE), reduced diet-induced thermogenesis, or physical inactivity are believed to predispose to obesity. However, estimates of the magnitude of the weight gain often fail to account for concurrent changes in body composition and increases in maintenance energy requirements as weight increases and energy equilibrium is re-established. Using previously reported data on body composition and REE in women and the energy cost of tissue deposition, we used mathematical models to predict the theoretical effect of a persistent reduction in energy expenditure on long-term weight gain, assuming no adaptation in energy intake. The analyses indicate the following effects of a reduced level of energy expenditure in lean and obese women: (i) REE rises more slowly with increasing degrees of obesity due to a declining proportion of the more metabolically active fat-free mass; so, for the same positive energy balance, a significantly greater weight gain is expected for obese than for lean women before energy equilibrium is re-established; (ii) due to the greater energy density of adipose tissue, the time course of weight gain to achieve energy balance is longer for obese subjects: in general, this is approximately five years for lean and ten years for obese women; (iii) the magnitude of weight gain of lean women in response to a reduced energy expenditure of 200 to 800 kJ/day is only about 3 to 15 kg, amounts insufficient to explain severe obesity.

Management of patient dose and image noise in routine pediatric CT abdominal examinations.

The aim was to propose a strategy for finding reasonable compromises between image noise and dose as a function of patient weight. Weighted CT dose index (CTDI(w)) was measured on a multidetector-row CT unit using CTDI test objects of 16, 24 and 32 cm in diameter at 80, 100, 120 and 140 kV. These test objects were then scanned in helical mode using a wide range of tube currents and voltages with a reconstructed slice thickness of 5 mm. For each set of acquisition parameter image noise was measured and the Rose model observer was used to test two strategies for proposing a reasonable compromise between dose and low-contrast detection performance: (1) the use of a unique noise level for all test object diameters, and (2) the use of a unique dose efficacy level defined as the noise reduction per unit dose. Published data were used to define four weight classes and an acquisition protocol was proposed for each class. The protocols have been applied in clinical routine for more than one year. CTDI(vol) values of 6.7, 9.4, 15.9 and 24.5 mGy were proposed for the following weight classes: 2.5-5, 5-15, 15-30 and 30-50 kg with image noise levels in the range of 10-15 HU. The proposed method allows patient dose and image noise to be controlled in such a way that dose reduction does not impair the detection of low-contrast lesions. The proposed values correspond to high- quality images and can be reduced if only high-contrast organs are assessed.

Influence of learning on range expansion and adaptation to novel habitats.

Learning has been postulated to 'drive' evolution, but its influence on adaptive evolution in heterogeneous environments has not been formally examined. We used a spatially explicit individual-based model to study the effect of learning on the expansion and adaptation of a species to a novel habitat. Fitness was mediated by a behavioural trait (resource preference), which in turn was determined by both the genotype and learning. Our findings indicate that learning substantially increases the range of parameters under which the species expands and adapts to the novel habitat, particularly if the two habitats are separated by a sharp ecotone (rather than a gradient). However, for a broad range of parameters, learning reduces the degree of genetically-based local adaptation following the expansion and facilitates maintenance of genetic variation within local populations. Thus, in heterogeneous environments learning may facilitate evolutionary range expansions and maintenance of the potential of local populations to respond to subsequent environmental changes.

MAR elements regulate the probability of epigenetic switching between active and inactive gene expression.

Gene expression often cycles between active and inactive states in eukaryotes, yielding variable or noisy gene expression in the short-term, while slow epigenetic changes may lead to silencing or variegated expression. Understanding how cells control these effects will be of paramount importance to construct biological systems with predictable behaviours. Here we find that a human matrix attachment region (MAR) genetic element controls the stability and heritability of gene expression in cell populations. Mathematical modeling indicated that the MAR controls the probability of long-term transitions between active and inactive expression, thus reducing silencing effects and increasing the reactivation of silent genes. Single-cell short-terms assays revealed persistent expression and reduced expression noise in MAR-driven genes, while stochastic burst of expression occurred without this genetic element. The MAR thus confers a more deterministic behavior to an otherwise stochastic process, providing a means towards more reliable expression of engineered genetic systems.

A coherent neurobiological framework for functional neuroimaging provided by a model integrating compartmentalized energy metabolism.

Functional neuroimaging has undergone spectacular developments in recent years. Paradoxically, its neurobiological bases have remained elusive, resulting in an intense debate around the cellular mechanisms taking place upon activation that could contribute to the signals measured. Taking advantage of a modeling approach, we propose here a coherent neurobiological framework that not only explains several in vitro and in vivo observations but also provides a physiological basis to interpret imaging signals. First, based on a model of compartmentalized energy metabolism, we show that complex kinetics of NADH changes observed in vitro can be accounted for by distinct metabolic responses in two cell populations reminiscent of neurons and astrocytes. Second, extended application of the model to an in vivo situation allowed us to reproduce the evolution of intraparenchymal oxygen levels upon activation as measured experimentally without substantially altering the initial parameter values. Finally, applying the same model to functional neuroimaging in humans, we were able to determine that the early negative component of the blood oxygenation level-dependent response recorded with functional MRI, known as the initial dip, critically depends on the oxidative response of neurons, whereas the late aspects of the signal correspond to a combination of responses from cell types with two distinct metabolic profiles that could be neurons and astrocytes. In summary, our results, obtained with such a modeling approach, support the concept that both neuronal and glial metabolic responses form essential components of neuroimaging signals.

Estimating dormant and active hematopoietic stem cell kinetics through extensive modeling of bromodeoxyuridine label-retaining cell dynamics.

Bone marrow hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) are responsible for both lifelong daily maintenance of all blood cells and for repair after cell loss. Until recently the cellular mechanisms by which HSCs accomplish these two very different tasks remained an open question. Biological evidence has now been found for the existence of two related mouse HSC populations. First, a dormant HSC (d-HSC) population which harbors the highest self-renewal potential of all blood cells but is only induced into active self-renewal in response to hematopoietic stress. And second, an active HSC (a-HSC) subset that by and large produces the progenitors and mature cells required for maintenance of day-to-day hematopoiesis. Here we present computational analyses further supporting the d-HSC concept through extensive modeling of experimental DNA label-retaining cell (LRC) data. Our conclusion that the presence of a slowly dividing subpopulation of HSCs is the most likely explanation (amongst the various possible causes including stochastic cellular variation) of the observed long term Bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU) retention, is confirmed by the deterministic and stochastic models presented here. Moreover, modeling both HSC BrdU uptake and dilution in three stages and careful treatment of the BrdU detection sensitivity permitted improved estimates of HSC turnover rates. This analysis predicts that d-HSCs cycle about once every 149-193 days and a-HSCs about once every 28-36 days. We further predict that, using LRC assays, a 75%-92.5% purification of d-HSCs can be achieved after 59-130 days of chase. Interestingly, the d-HSC proportion is now estimated to be around 30-45% of total HSCs - more than twice that of our previous estimate.

Assessment of driving capability through the use of clinical and psychomotor tests in relation to blood cannabinoids levels following oral administration of 20 mg dronabinol or of a cannabis decoction made with 20 or 60 mg Delta9-THC.

Delta(9)-Tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) is frequently found in the blood of drivers suspected of driving under the influence of cannabis or involved in traffic crashes. The present study used a double-blind crossover design to compare the effects of medium (16.5 mg THC) and high doses (45.7 mg THC) of hemp milk decoctions or of a medium dose of dronabinol (20 mg synthetic THC, Marinol on several skills required for safe driving. Forensic interpretation of cannabinoids blood concentrations were attempted using the models proposed by Daldrup (cannabis influencing factor or CIF) and Huestis and coworkers. First, the time concentration-profiles of THC, 11-hydroxy-Delta(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (11-OH-THC) (active metabolite of THC), and 11-nor-9-carboxy-Delta(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (THCCOOH) in whole blood were determined by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry-negative ion chemical ionization. Compared to smoking studies, relatively low concentrations were measured in blood. The highest mean THC concentration (8.4 ng/mL) was achieved 1 h after ingestion of the strongest decoction. Mean maximum 11-OH-THC level (12.3 ng/mL) slightly exceeded that of THC. THCCOOH reached its highest mean concentration (66.2 ng/mL) 2.5-5.5 h after intake. Individual blood levels showed considerable intersubject variability. The willingness to drive was influenced by the importance of the requested task. Under significant cannabinoids influence, the participants refused to drive when they were asked whether they would agree to accomplish several unimportant tasks, (e.g., driving a friend to a party). Most of the participants reported a significant feeling of intoxication and did not appreciate the effects, notably those felt after drinking the strongest decoction. Road sign and tracking testing revealed obvious and statistically significant differences between placebo and treatments. A marked impairment was detected after ingestion of the strongest decoction. A CIF value, which relies on the molar ratio of main active to inactive cannabinoids, greater than 10 was found to correlate with a strong feeling of intoxication. It also matched with a significant decrease in the willingness to drive, and it matched also with a significant impairment in tracking performances. The mathematic model II proposed by Huestis et al. (1992) provided at best a rough estimate of the time of oral administration with 27% of actual values being out of range of the 95% confidence interval. The sum of THC and 11-OH-THC blood concentrations provided a better estimate of impairment than THC alone. This controlled clinical study points out the negative influence on fitness to drive after medium or high dose oral THC or dronabinol.

Negative and positive effects of trade on health.

Comment on: Blouin C, Chopra M, van der Hoeven R.Trade and social determinants of health. Lancet. 2009;373(9662):502-7. PMID: 19167058.

Imaging the ultrasmall-angle x-ray scattering distribution with grating interferometry.

X-ray imaging with grating interferometry has previously been regarded as a technique providing information only in direct space. It delivers absorption, phase, and dark-field contrast, which can be viewed as parameters of the underlying but unresolved scattering distribution. Here, we present a method that provides the ultrasmall-angle x-ray scattering distribution and, thus, allows simultaneous access to direct and reciprocal space information.